Saturday, 7 August 2010

Soros is a phenomenal investor: The "Warren Buffett" of hedge funds.

We often refer to Warren Buffett as the "World's Greatest Investor". If Mr. Buffett is indeed the greatest, then George Soros is likely a close second. In fact, people have referred to Soros as the "Warren Buffett" of hedge funds. Regardless of how you choose to label him, Soros is a phenomenal investor. He has assured his place in numerous history books based on his funds' astonishing historical returns. His flagship Quantum Fund returned an average yield of over 30% during its more than 30 year existence. This phenomenal streak was only halted by the merger of Soros' Quantum Fund and his Emerging Growth Fund to create the Quantum Endowment Fund in mid-2000.

Born in Budapest, Hungary, in 1930, Soros survived that country's Nazi occupation before moving to London to study at the prestigious London School of Economics (LSE). There he was exposed to the works of famous 20th century philosopher Karl Popper; these had a great impact on Soros' outlook at the time and would later influence his approach to investing. Although the days of betting huge against a currency to record a $1 billion dollar gain in one day may have come to an end when Soros merged his two funds, this savvy market guru remains influential.

Soros and his management firm differ in many ways from most of the other investors. For starters, his fund is not a mutual fund, but rather a hedge fund. The biggest difference between these investment vehicles is the way in which they are run. Hedge funds not only take long and short positions in equities; they also use options and other derivatives and speculate on currencies. These are just some of the means they use to create wealth for their clients.

The hedge fund industry is quite different from the mutual fund industry. However, there is one major similarity: both industries seek to create wealth and attain high returns for clients and investors. Based on that, tracking the movements of Soros Fund Management LLC is a great strategy. For the individual investor, simply being aware of what skilled investors like George Soros and his team of managers are doing is advantageous. You may remember headlines way back in 1992 when Soros capitalized on a decline in the British pound to the tune of $1 billion. Not bad for a day's work. Although the Soros team invests differently than some of our other managers keeping an eye on any major moves they make will be interesting.


Soros Fund Management
Average Annual Return
3-Year
5-Year
Quantum Fund (1970-2000)
30%
n/a*
n/a*
S&P 500(Benchmark)
10.4%
17.17%
0.64%
* as the Quantum fund merged with the emerging growth fund in 2000, the fund does not have a 3 and 5 year return per se

Company Name:Soros Fund Management
Portfolio Manager:George Soros
Focus:Hedge Fund
Updates:Shares Held, Change in Shares, and Position Change as of 9/30/08 - all other information 15 minutes delayed






TickerCompanyShare Value x1000Change in Value x1000Current Value x1000Shares HeldChange in Shares% of PortfolioPosition Change
PBRPETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA$1,927,406$1,115,921$1,680,94243,854,47432,397,67450.53%Increase
POTPOTASH CORP SASK INC$441,049$41,576$379,3403,341,0271,593,32011.56%Increase
WMTWAL MART STORES INC$227,096$192,651$196,3823,791,8903,178,9905.95%Increase
HESHESS CORP$171,218$101,340$115,9602,085,9881,532,2384.49%Increase
COPCONOCOPHILLIPS$125,104($39,002)$97,2311,707,900(30,700)3.28%Decrease
RIMMRESEARCH IN MOTION LTD$110,018$0$86,0981,610,81002.88%No Change
ACIARCH COAL INC$94,641$0$75,8222,877,48602.48%No Change
IYRISHARES TR$80,535$0$67,9641,300,00002.11%No Change
QQQQPOWERSHARES QQQ TRUST$77,820$68,786$93,5202,000,0001,800,0002.04%Increase
SLBSCHLUMBERGER LTD$42,559$30,849$33,975545,000436,0001.12%Increase
MAPPMAP PHARMACEUTICALS INC$41,251($856)$51,9714,076,16901.08%No Change
CNXCONSOL ENERGY INC$38,257$20,503$32,438833,658675,6581.00%Increase
AUXLAUXILIUM PHARMACEUTICALS INC$33,734($7,154)$27,1851,041,180(175,000)0.88%Decrease
WLLWHITING PETE CORP NEW$26,367$0$33,912370,01700.69%No Change
GSLGLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC NEW$23,888$0$9,5633,750,00000.63%No Change
ELXEMULEX CORP$22,905$16,303$18,5692,146,6661,580,0000.60%Increase
JBLUJETBLUE AWYS CORP$22,735($12,206)$28,6614,593,030(4,774,408)0.60%Decrease
SUSUNCOR ENERGY INC$21,196$0$16,725503,00000.56%No Change
CHKCHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP$20,763$0$12,906579,00000.54%No Change
BBYBEST BUY INC$20,513$0$19,096547,00000.54%No Change
IRFINTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER CORP$18,938$7,002$19,555995,666374,0000.50%Increase
BWLDBUFFALO WILD WINGS INC$18,751$0$19,506465,97300.49%No Change
LSCCLATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP$16,906$16,906$44,6458,206,8668,206,8660.44%Increase
CTRNCITI TRENDS INC$14,965($5,852)$27,827918,67100.39%No Change
BUDANHEUSER BUSCH COS INC$13,032$0$10,557200,86200.34%No Change
BFLYBLUEFLY INC$11,518($8,457)$11,1784,860,11500.30%No Change
FROFRONTLINE LTD$10,532$0$6,842219,00000.28%No Change
MRCYMERCURY COMPUTER SYS$9,018$1,388$12,2101,013,24100.24%No Change
KMXCARMAX INC$4,620$3,910$6,864330,000280,0000.12%Increase
ALTHALLOS THERAPEUTICS INC$4,530($1,767)$2,971611,353(300,000)0.12%Decrease
BACBANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION$4,130$0$1,647118,00000.11%No Change
PSSCOLLECTIVE BRANDS INC$3,516$3,516$2,918192,000192,0000.09%Increase
SIDCOMPANHIA SIDERURGICA$3,391$0$2,774159,48900.09%No Change
SIDNACION$3,391$0$2,774159,48900.09%No Change
FISFIDELITY NATL INFORMATION SVCS$3,247$0$4,872175,89100.09%No Change
CMECME GROUP INC$2,972($94)$2,1728,00000.08%No Change
DPSDR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC$2,939$0$4,093111,00000.08%No Change
ETRENTERGY CORP NEW$2,759$2,759$2,47231,00031,0000.07%Increase
STISUNTRUST BKS IN$2,722$0$1,56460,50000.07%No Change
NIHDNII HLDGS INC$2,470$1,800$2,53665,14551,0450.06%Increase
TAT&T INC$2,373$1,362$2,25685,00055,0000.06%Increase
INETINTERNET BRANDS INC$2,211$108$3,290317,25800.06%No Change
NDAQNASDAQ OMX GROUP INC$2,195$0$1,45171,80000.06%No Change
GGPGENERAL GROWTH PPPTYS IN$2,173$0$2,048143,90000.06%No Change
TDCTERADATA CORP DEL$2,145$0$3,557110,00000.06%No Change
MSFTMICROSOFT CORP$2,109($5,239)$2,01879,000(188,100)0.06%Decrease
ISILINTERSIL CORP$2,073($967)$1,389125,00000.05%No Change
KIMKIMCO REALTY CORP$2,054$0$83755,60000.05%No Change
BKBANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP$1,857$1,857$1,46757,00057,0000.05%Increase
LPSLENDER PROCESSING SVCS INC$1,831$0$1,91660,00000.05%No Change
CSGSCSG SYS INTL INC$1,753$0$1,904100,00000.05%No Change
GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$1,638($636)$1,98612,800(200)0.04%Decrease
HSNIHSN INC$1,601$0$4,137145,40000.04%No Change
LOLORILLARD INC$1,423$0$1,52620,00000.04%No Change
VZVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC$1,284$222$1,18240,00010,0000.03%Increase
GLREGREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE LTD$1,264$0$1,34155,00000.03%No Change
TKLCTEKELEC$979($639)$85870,000(40,000)0.03%Decrease
CACA INC$974$0$96748,80400.03%No Change
GMTGATX COR$874$0$64822,10000.02%No Change
CLNECLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP$797$150$94856,30600.02%No Change
MAMASTERCARD INC$709$0$8304,00000.02%No Change
RDWRRADWARE LTD$657($3,366)$1,77678,877(377,789)0.02%Decrease
BBNDBIGBAND NETWORKS INC$637$81$502172,50055,0000.02%Increase
SATSECHOSTAR CORP$615($322)$51825,500(4,500)0.02%Decrease
EXTREXTREME NETWORKS INC$576($9,355)$497170,799(3,325,867)0.02%Decrease
DRADDIGIRAD CORP$540($459)$853473,65200.01%No Change
AMZNAMAZON COM INC$437$0$7706,00000.01%No Change
TWCTIME WARNER CABLE INC$331($28)$76413,6951320.01%Increase
RSYSRADISYS CORP$318($316)$33937,000(33,000)0.01%Decrease
ITTITT CORP NEW$222$0$1844,00000.01%No Change
PAETPAETEC HOLDING CORP$215($420)$405100,00000.01%No Change
MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC$203($2,148)$37950,000(341,800)0.01%Decrease
AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC$0($912)$00(156,500)0.00%SOLD
ANRALPHA NATURAL RESOURCES INC$0($36,293)$00(348,000)0.00%SOLD
AMRAMR CORP$0($605)$00(118,100)0.00%SOLD
AUANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD$0($1,239)$00(36,292)0.00%SOLD
BAABANRO CORP$0($1,499)$00(213,000)0.00%SOLD
ABXBARRICK GOLD CORP$0($3,813)$00(83,800)0.00%SOLD
BTRXBARRIER THERAPEUTICS$0($13,365)$00(3,324,734)0.00%SOLD
BJBJS WHOLESALE CLUB INC$0($3,038)$00(78,500)0.00%SOLD
BKEBUCKLE INC$0($903)$00(19,750)0.00%SOLD
BUCYBUCYRUS INTL INC NEW$0($14,844)$00(203,288)0.00%SOLD
CALPCALIPER LIFE SCIENCES$0($371)$00(143,390)0.00%SOLD
CCJCAMECO CORP$0($454)$00(10,600)0.00%SOLD
CENXCENTURY ALUM CO$0($14,162)$00(213,000)0.00%SOLD
CSCOCISCO SYS INC$0($4,857)$00(208,800)0.00%SOLD
CYNCITY NATL CORP$0($1,851)$00(44,000)0.00%SOLD
CMACOMERICA INC$0($1,538)$00(60,000)0.00%SOLD
CALCONTINENTAL AIRLS INC$0($467)$00(46,200)0.00%SOLD
GLWCORNING INC$0($1,383)$00(60,000)0.00%SOLD
COSTCOSTCO WHSL CORP NEW$0($7,344)$00(104,700)0.00%SOLD
DALDELTA AIR LINES INC DEL$0($567)$00(99,500)0.00%SOLD
DMDOLAN MEDIA CO$0($1,274)$00(70,000)0.00%SOLD
UFSDOMTAR CORP$0($1,583)$00(290,400)0.00%SOLD
EBAYEBAY INC$0($2,263)$00(82,800)0.00%SOLD
ESENERGYSOLUTIONS INC$0($19,233)$00(860,550)0.00%SOLD
FCXFREEPORTMCMORAN COPPER & GOLD$0($16,155)$00(137,850)0.00%SOLD
GOOGGOOGLE INC$0($263)$00(500)0.00%SOLD
HALHALLIBURTON CO$0($16,982)$00(320,000)0.00%SOLD
IAGIAMGOLD CORP$0($467)$00(77,853)0.00%SOLD
INCYINCYTE CORP$0($567)$00(74,558)0.00%SOLD
IPINTL PAPER CO$0($5,283)$00(226,726)0.00%SOLD
IPIINTREPID POTASH INC$0($6,578)$00(100,000)0.00%SOLD
EWZISHARES INC$0($1,161)$00(13,000)0.00%SOLD
EEMISHARES TR$0($350,538)$00(2,582,800)0.00%SOLD
JNJJOHNSON & JOHNSON$0($4,053)$00(63,000)0.00%SOLD
JOYGJOY GLOBAL INC$0($14,559)$00(192,000)0.00%SOLD
KBRKBR INC$0($997)$00(28,553)0.00%SOLD
KRKROGER CO$0($11,772)$00(407,750)0.00%SOLD
MACMACERICH CO$0($1,249)$00(20,100)0.00%SOLD
MDRMCDERMOTT INTL INC$0($9,531)$00(154,000)0.00%SOLD
MONMONSANTO CO NEW$0($18,334)$00(145,000)0.00%SOLD
MOSMOSAIC CO$0($20,786)$00(143,650)0.00%SOLD
NETCNET SERVICOS DE COMUNICACAO SA$0($5,414)$00(430,000)0.00%SOLD
NEMNEWMONT MINING CORP$0($3,437)$00(65,900)0.00%SOLD
NWSNEWS CORP$0($2,353)$00(153,272)0.00%SOLD
NOKNOKIA CORP$0($980)$00(40,000)0.00%SOLD
NVLSNOVELLUS SYS INC$0($742)$00(35,000)0.00%SOLD
VIPOPEN JT STK COVIMPEL$0($1,187)$00(40,000)0.00%SOLD
PTENPATTERSON UTI ENERGY$0($9,679)$00(267,900)0.00%SOLD
PMCSPMCSIERRA INC$0($688)$00(90,000)0.00%SOLD
SNDKSANDISK CORP$0($374)$00(20,000)0.00%SOLD
SDSANDRIDGE ENERGY INC$0($15,499)$00(240,000)0.00%SOLD
SIGMSIGMA DESIGNS INC$0($556)$00(40,000)0.00%SOLD
SSCCSMURFITSTONE CONTAINER$0($1,427)$00(350,600)0.00%SOLD
SNASNAP ON INC$0($1,560)$00(30,000)0.00%SOLD
LUVSOUTHWEST AIRLS CO$0($454)$00(34,800)0.00%SOLD
SPYSPDR TR$0($41,977)$00(328,000)0.00%SOLD
SPYSPDR TR$0($41,977)$00(328,000)0.00%SOLD
SPRTSUPPORTSOFT INC$0($2,687)$00(826,666)0.00%SOLD
SYMMSYMMETRICOM INC$0($294)$00(76,666)0.00%SOLD
SNVSYNOVUS FINL CORP$0($4,234)$00(485,000)0.00%SOLD
TLMTALISMAN ENERGY INC$0($22,097)$00(998,500)0.00%SOLD
TINTEMPLE INLAND INC$0($393)$00(34,900)0.00%SOLD
TIBXTIBCO SOFTWARE INC$0($10,761)$00(1,406,666)0.00%SOLD
UNPUNION PAC CORP$0($9,589)$00(127,000)0.00%SOLD
USMUNITED STATES CELLULAR CORP$0($848)$00(15,000)0.00%SOLD
VECOVEECO INSTRS INC DEL$0($982)$00(61,064)0.00%SOLD
WFTWEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL LTD$0($13,191)$00(266,000)0.00%SOLD
YHOOYAHOO! INC$0($1,033)$00(50,000)0.00%SOLD
ZIONZIONS BANCORPORATION$0($1,512)$00(48,000)0.00%SOLD




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The numbers speak for themselves: Keeping an eye on the holdings of Warren Buffett is a good idea.

Although the name Berkshire Hathaway is not synonymous with its chairman and CEO, Warren E. Buffett--the greatest investor of all time--it definitely should be. Despite Berkshire’s origins in the textile industry it was not until 1964, when Buffett stepped into the driver’s seat of this holding company, that Berkshire really started to post astonishing gains year in and year out.

Buffett’s investing ideals are by no means original. He is the prodigy student of Ben Graham, the father of value investing, but Buffett's educational influences did not stop there. He combined what Graham taught with the investment principles of Philip Fisher. Fisher focused on what a company did and how it made money, stressing the qualitative fundamental characteristics of companies. By combining the teachings of both Graham and Fisher, Buffett, through his Berkshire investing vehicle, has been able to post unfathomable annual returns.

In adhering to the principles of value investing, Buffett is the personification of patience and discipline, two characteristics often in short supply in money managers. His buy-and-hold strategy had proven extremely profitable over the last 40 years. Berkshire’s so-called “bread and butter” is the insurance business, and amongst other insurance companies, Berkshire wholly owns the GEICO Corporation. The reveune from this stream of business was over $1.5 billion in 2004. But do not let this mislead you; Buffet shows little hesitation to invest in other sectors of the economy, as long as he feels he is getting a good deal. View Buffett's holdings now - click here.

Some of the most important factors value investors analyze are such things as ROE, debt-to-equity and price-to-book ratios, all in an effort to determine a company’s intrinsic value. If Buffett deems a company’s intrinsic value to be higher than its current price, and its management and business operations to be sustainable, he will almost certainly invest. However, based on his staple of only about 30 stocks, it is fairly apparent that very few companies pass the Warren E. Buffett invest-ability test.

Although we can talk all about Buffett’s accolades over the past 40 years, the numbers speak for themselves. Suffice to say that keeping an eye on the holdings of Warren Buffett is a good idea. If you are not watching the best investor in the world, who are you watching?



Berkshire Hathaway
Average Annual Return
3-Year
5-Year
Common Stock (BRK.a/b)
21.9%
8.48%
9.48%
S&P 500(Benchmark)
10.4%
17.17%
0.64%



Company Name:Berkshire Hathaway
Portfolio Manager:Warren Buffett
Focus:Value
Updates:Shares Held, Change in Shares, and Position Change as of 9/30/08 - all other information 15 minutes delayed



TickerCompanyShare Value x1000Change in Value x1000Current Value x1000Shares HeldChange in Shares% of PortfolioPosition Change
COPConocoPhillips$5,710,262$5,710,262$4,438,02477,955,80077,955,8008.17%Increase
PGProcter & Gamble Co.$5,592,762($843,794)$4,816,72580,252,000(25,595,000)8.00%Decrease
KFTKraft Foods Inc.$3,930,416($3,436)$3,643,586120,012,700(18,259,800)5.62%Decrease
WFCWells Fargo & Co. Del$2,481,957($4,421,097)$1,835,18066,132,620(224,522,248)3.55%Decrease
WSCWesco Finl Corp.$2,036,002($145,429)$1,919,0895,703,08702.91%No Change
USBUS Bancorp$1,781,615($132,505)$1,148,50449,461,826(19,169,200)2.55%Decrease
JNJJohnson & Johnson$1,703,512($2,269,769)$1,474,34524,588,800(37,165,648)2.44%Decrease
MCOMoody's$1,632,000($21,120)$1,129,44048,000,00002.34%No Change
WMTWal-Mart Stores, Inc.$1,194,464$73,595$1,032,91519,944,30001.71%No Change
BUDAnheuser Busch Cos. Inc.$898,264$38,213$727,69313,845,00001.29%No Change
AXPAmerican Express Co.$893,546($4,817,626)$1,097,07225,220,034(126,390,666)1.28%Decrease
UNPUnion Pacific Corp.$633,751($38,652)$686,1188,906,00000.91%No Change
MTBM & T Bank Corporation$584,530$110,850$569,0086,549,360(165,700)0.84%Decrease
WPOWashington Post Co.$580,487($433,538)$393,6501,042,615(685,150)0.83%Decrease
NKENike Inc.$511,183$55,703$565,1287,641,00000.73%No Change
USGUSG Corporation$437,048($67,777)$205,03717,072,19200.63%No Change
COSTCostco Wholesale Corp.$341,142($27,374)$297,0615,254,00000.49%No Change
KMXCarmax Inc.$258,217($44,030)$383,63718,444,100(2,855,900)0.37%Decrease
CMCSKComcast Corp$236,640$11,520$210,72012,000,00000.34%No Change
GEGeneral Electric Co.$198,336($9,256)$127,9477,777,90000.28%No Change
IRIngersoll-Rd Company LTD.$175,674($35,281)$211,8805,636,60000.25%No Change
BACBank of America Corp.$175,000($42,217)$69,8005,000,000(4,100,000)0.25%Decrease
ETNEaton Corporation$163,411$0$230,2242,908,70000.23%No Change
UNHUnited Health Group Inc.$161,986($6,014)$213,4086,379,900(20,100)0.23%Decrease
LOWLowes Companies Inc.$153,985$8,735$131,8206,500,000(500,000)0.22%Decrease
STISun Trusts Banks Inc.$144,175$28,105$82,8393,204,60000.21%No Change
NSCNorfolk Southern Corp.$127,984$6,843$110,2971,933,00000.18%No Change
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.$123,750$0$114,9505,000,00000.18%No Change
KOCoca Cola$115,067($10,280,933)$123,4882,176,000(197,824,000)0.16%Decrease
SNYSanofi Aventis$111,253($18,474)$102,7913,384,633(519,300)0.16%Decrease
WBCWabco Holdings Inc.$95,958$0$104,8682,700,00000.14%No Change
HDHome Depot Inc.$95,793($2,126)$106,1163,700,000(481,000)0.14%Decrease
UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc.$89,882$2,029$95,3281,429,20000.13%No Change
IRMIron Mountain Inc.$82,315($7,217)$78,3363,372,20000.12%No Change
GSKGlaxoSmithKline$65,646($1,148)$55,1631,510,50000.09%No Change
GCIGannett Inc.$58,299($16,410)$45,3363,447,60000.08%No Change
TMKTorchmark Corp.$31,532($134,088)$28,083527,279(2,296,600)0.05%Decrease
CDCOComdisco Holding Co.$14,466($220)$13,0821,521,162(16,704)0.02%Decrease

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A classic definition of a shrewd investor

 "(O)ne who bought in a bear market when everyone else was selling and sold out in a bull market when everyone else was buying." 

Safety with a security residing in earnings -not collateral

 "Experience has shown that in most cases safety resides in the earning power, and if this is deficient the assets lose most of their reputed value." 

Friday, 6 August 2010

Why bargains occur

 "The market is fond of making mountains of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks. Even a mere lack of interest or enthusiasm may impel a price decline to absurdly low levels." 

Enthusiasm on Wall Street Is Dangerous

Graham warned ". . . that while enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, in Wall Street it almost invariable leads to disaster."

He didn't explain his rationale for this view, but enthusiasm destroys our critical faculties and leads us to believe we have a "sure thing". Coupled with greed, thinking an investment is a sure thing is most dangerous. We tend to bet heavily on the stock, forgetting the legendary Bernard Baruch's warning that every investment is something of a gamble. Moreover, enthusiasm leads a person into speculation, which Graham greatly deplored.

The Prevalent Approach to Investing Often Does Not Work

The prevalent approach to investing is first to choose the best industry, and then to invest in the best company in that industry, regardless of the stock's price. 

Graham did not think well of this approach because he believed it was too unreliable. Good business does not always translate into good investment returns, and even the experts have difficulty selecting and concentrating on those issues which will become winners. Finally, the application of this method may place an investor in popular, overvalued stocks.

Famous Mr. Market Parable

Stocks will fluctuate substantially in value. For a true investor, the only significant meaning of price fluctuations is that they offer ". . . an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal." 

Using his famous Mr. Market parable, Graham suggests the attitude one should adopt toward fluctuations in prices. Imagine owning a $1,000 interest in a business along with a partner, Mr. Market. 


Every day the accommodating Mr. Market offers either to buy your interest or to sell you a larger interest. Sometimes his price is ridiculously high, allowing you a good opportunity to sell. At other times his price is ridiculously low, allowing you a good opportunity to buy. Still at other times, his quotes are roughly justified by the business outlook, and you can ignore them. 

The point is that the market is there for your convenience and profit. And market valuations are often wrong. Price fluctuations, Graham believes ". . . bear no relationship to underlying conditions and values." It is a mistake, he argued, to let the market determine what stocks are worth. 
Generally an investor will be wiser to form independent stock valuations, and then to exploit divergences between those valuations and the market's prices.

Graham's Mr. Market parable is related to his view of technical analysis. According to Graham, nearly all of technical analysis is based on buying stock when prices have risen and selling when they have fallen. Based on over 50 years' experience, he had ". . . not known a single person who had consistently or lastingly made money by thus 'following the market.'" This approach, he declared, ". . . is as fallacious as it is popular." 

Investment Experience and Stock Market History Are Important

Ben Graham's 57 years on Wall Street were most instructive, and he expressed his appreciation to them when he alluded to his "old ally, experience". 

To an important extent, you learn to invest by investing. Too often we have to make the same mistake as others before the lesson is instructive. All of us, it seems, must learn through the school of hard knocks. We would do better to learn from the likes of Ben Graham. 

Graham was a careful student of stock market history, and he placed great emphasis on it. He thought that "No statement is more true and better applicable to Wall Street than the famous warning of Santayana : `Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'" Graham could ridicule investors grasp of stock market history, referring to their "proverbial short memories". 

It was Graham's knowledge of the long sweep of stock market history that prompted his view that ". . . the investor may as well resign himself. . .to the probability . . . that most of his holdings will advance, say, 50% or more from their low point and decline the equivalent one-third or more from their high point at various periods in the next 5 years." Historical insight is critical to successful investing. It is only through knowledge of the past that we can tell anything about the future.

Did Graham Insist on a Sure Thing?

It is too strong to say that Graham insisted on a sure thing, but he clearly wasn't much of a risk taker.

In his own words, "From the first we wanted to make sure that we were getting ample value for our money in concrete, demonstrable terms. We were unwilling to accept the prospects and promises of the future as compensation for a lack of sufficient value in hand."

Graham is proof that successful investment need not be risky investment. 

Graham Declines to Predict Earnings

In The Intelligent Investor, Graham evaluated the investment merit of several stocks, but not once did he predict earnings for those stocks. (On other occasions, however, he did venture to predict earnings.) For instance, at the conclusion of his analyses of ELTRA and Emhart stocks, he concluded, "We make no predictions about the future earnings performance. . ." 

That Graham, an eminent security analyst, should decline to predict earnings is intriguing. He obviously did not have much confidence in his ability to predict earnings - nor in others' predictions, especially long-term predictions. Sophisticated investors have always been aware of this difficulty. For instance, John Maynard Keynes, the brilliant British economist, more than a half-century ago emphasized the great difficulty involved in forecasting investment returns. In regard to this difficulty, Keynes said : "The outstanding fact is the extreme precariousness of the basis of knowledge on which our estimates of prospective yield have to be made. Our knowledge of the factors which will govern the yield of an investment some years hence is usually very slight and often negligible. If we speak frankly, we have to admit that our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield ten years hence of a railway, a copper mine, a textile factory, the goodwill of a patent medicine, an Atlantic liner, a building in the City of London amounts to little and sometimes to nothing; or even five years hence. In fact, those who seriously attempt to make such estimates are often so much in the minority that their behavior does not govern the market. "
Apparently because of such problems, Graham believed that the security valuation process is not very reliable. After discussing some problems valuing ALCOA, Graham said, "ALCOA is surely a representative industrial company of huge size. . .[it] supports to some degree, the doubts we expressed [earlier] as to the dependability of the appraisal process when applied to the typical industrial company." 

Because the appraisal process is unreliable, it is prudent to diversify one's investments. Perhaps it is enough, Graham thought, for an investor to be assured that he or she is getting good value, even if an accurate valuation is impossible. 

Finally, the inherent inaccuracy of this valuation process may explain Graham's observation that he had never ". . . seen dependable calculations made about common-stock values . . . that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra." In valuing stock, crude, simple calculations often are as good as you can do.

How do you find stocks with a margin of safety?

In part, they are found by avoiding stocks which are unlikely to possess this margin. Popular stocks are avoided since they are likely to be fully priced, and growth stocks are avoided since they tend to be popular and since they tend to perform poorly in bad markets. And you follow rules pertaining to low price/earnings ratios, low price/book value ratios, etc., which are designed to exclude stocks without a margin of safety.

Graham's advice to avoid growth stocks may be surprising. The reason is that great wealth is seldom achieved without growth stock investment, and Graham himself apparently amassed much of his fortune, while considerably enhancing his reputation, from a single growth stock. However, when Graham and his investment partners violated this principle, they controlled the firm and thus possessed inside knowledge of its affairs. Graham and partners held on to this stocks, too, because it had become "family business." In this case, they also violated Graham's often -stated admonition to be well diversified ; 20 percent of their funds initially went into this one stock. Still, Graham's disdain for growth stocks - because they are often popular, tend to become overpriced in good markets, and tend to perform poorly in bad markets - is well founded.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

Graham was most insistent that any security purchased should represent good value. He felt stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume, and he distilled his investment philosophy down to just three words, "MARGIN OF SAFETY".

By margin of safety, he meant that any stock bought should be worth considerably more than it costs. He sometimes suggested at least 50 percent more. Stocks bought with a margin of safety give some assurance that one has invested wisely. And stocks bought with a margin of safety should be low risk, high return investments.

Investment Performance Depends on Intelligent Effort

Graham disagreed with the usual postulated risk-return relationship, that is, to earn a higher return an investor must accept higher risk. To the contrary, he felt that the more intelligent effort one put into investing, the better the bargains bought. And the better the bargains, the lower the risk.

Thus intelligent investing provides high yields and low risk. Finance academicians often fail to appreciate this point.

Will Graham Make You Rich ?

Few investors--except in old age--will get rich adhering strictly to Graham's investment philosophy.

His conservative, diversified approach for most practitioners is likely to yield investment results only a little better than average. His aim is to assist investors to obtain good value for their money, not to make them rich quick.

Graham believed that this is the only legitimate function for an investment advisor. Most investors would do well to achieve such results because professional investors on average do not fare so well.

Still, it would be good to remember Graham`s caution that : "(A)ny approach to moneymaking in the stock market which can be easily described and followed by a lot of people is by its terms too simple and too easy to last. Spinoza`s concluding remark applies to Wall Street as well as to philosophy: "All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare."

Ben Graham offers a keen insight into moneymaking and a wise philosophy. The investment principles he enunciated are timeless. The seeker of investment truth will discover in the old sage a gold mine of wisdom, one who creditably promises a "fattening of the pocketbook", and a fine companion as well. We would do well before we make our next commitment to think his motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.

The Benefits and Drawbacks of Preferred Stock Investing

The Benefits and Drawbacks of Preferred Stock Investing
BY STOCK RESEARCH PRO • MAY 8TH, 2009

Some companies issue two types of stock: common and preferred stock. While each offers a portion of ownership in the company, there are significant differences between the two. Preferred stock is often seen as a hybrid instrument; a mix between a stock and a bond. Although preferred stock is an equity security, it has many characteristics that are similar to a debt instrument.

Why Companies Offer Preferred Stock
For the issuing company, preferred stock can be easier to market than common stock as most holders of preferred shares tend to be bond institutional investors. This is due to tax law that enables U.S. corporations that pay income taxes to exclude a large portion (70%) of their dividend income from taxable income. Additionally, if cash flow problems arise for the issuing company, they may suspend dividend payments to preferred shareholders.

Even so, the amount of preferred stock issued by a company usually represents a very small percentage of its funding (compared to common stock and debt).

Unique Features of Preferred Stock
The following is a list of common characteristics of preferred stock:
Redeemable: A preferred stock is said to be redeemable or “callable” in that the company that issues the shares reserves the right to redeem them at a pre-determined price and its own discretion.
Participating: This feature enables preferred share holders to participate in the dividends to common shareholders, usually at a pre-determined rate.
Convertible: The convertible option provides preferred shareholders with the option of converting preferred stock to common stock.
Cumulative: Under the cumulative feature, if the company fails to pay its dividend to preferred shareholders, it must make up the dividend before any dividends can be paid to common shareholders.

The Benefits of Preferred Stock Investing for Individuals
The fact that individuals do not enjoy the same tax advantages as corporations should not preclude them from considering investment in preferred stock. Some of the benefits of preferred stock investing for individual investors include:
Greater price stability and payment priority (of both dividends and liquation proceeds) than common stock holders
Greater liquidity than many bond holdings
Relatively low investment per share

The Potential Downside to Investing in Preferred Stock
The “callability” and limited upside potential are the two negative factors most often referenced for preferred stock. Additionally, preferred shareholders do not receive voting rights and, like bond holders, are exposed to interest rate changes.


http://www.stockresearchpro.com/the-benefits-and-drawbacks-of-preferred-stock-investing

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