Thursday 1 November 2012

AmBank issues new structured warrants


Friday October 26, 2012

KUALA LUMPUR: AmBank (M) Bhd is issuing five new European style cash-settled structured call warrants (CW) over the ordinary shares ofAstro Malaysia Holdings BhdLingkaran Trans Kota Holdings Bhd andTop Glove Corp Bhd.
It is also issuing one European style cash-settled structured put warrant (PW) over the ordinary shares of Astro to meet investors’ demand for trading and investment opportunities in the current market scenario,AmBank Group said in a statement.
The structured warrants will be listed for trading on Oct 29, via the market making method, with issue size of up to 100 million each.
Director/head, equity derivatives, AmInvestment Bank Ng Ee Fang said:“As Malaysia’s benchmark FBMKLCI Index inched higher to hit new record highs, investor optimism remains as the local stock market is buoyed by liquidity and strong demand for good quality, high-yielding equity names.
“The slew of high-profile, multi-billion dollar IPOs year-to-date also played a significant part in attracting global investors’ interest to the local bourse.”
Besides Felda Global Ventures and IHH Healthcare, Ng said Astro became the third multi-billion dollar IPO on Bursa Malaysia this year when it raised US$1.5bil from its IPO last Friday.
“Therefore, for AmBank’s upcoming tranche of warrants, AmBank will be offering three call warrants and one put warrant over Astro to provide investors opportunities to participate and trade on both the direction and volatility of Astro.
There will also be two call warrants over Top Glove and Litrak.
AmBank’s three CWs on Astro are priced at 15 sen each with gearings of 2.5 and 4 times.
AmBank’s PW on Astro is also priced at 15 sen each with gearing of 5 times.
AmBank’s CW on Top Glove is priced at 15 sen each with gearing of 2.96 times while the CW on Litrak is priced at 15 sen each with gearing of 2.7 times.
This offer is aimed at sophisticated traders who want to trade on the direction and volatility of Astro, Top Glove and Litrak. – Bernama

Who are those selling Astro shares?


Friday October 26, 2012

Friday Reflections - By B.K. Sidhu


ASTRO Malaysia Holdings Bhd's paltry performance since its debut on the market last Friday raises one very pertinent question Who is selling Astro shares in the market?
The question is pertinent because it boggles the mind as to why anyone would be dumping the stock so early. Many investors who buy into companies linked to tycoon Ananda Krishnan have tended to be long-term investors looking for the promised dividend yield and capital appreciation, which have generally been decent.
Since its listing, Astro shares have not gone above its IPO price, save for a few moments on the day it was listed.
The stock opened at RM3.03, shot to RM3.11 and for a while, that brought cheer to many people but that joy ended as soon as it started.
The shares succumbed to selling pressure and ended its first day flat at RM3.
Alhough it has recovered some ground from its rock bottom of RM2.70, it is still pretty much “underwater,” closing at RM2.86 yesterday.
So, who's selling, because anyone who bought the shares at the IPO price of RM3 per share, would be selling at a loss.
The market is rife with rumours about this.
Did the cornerstones, other institutional investors, Miti-approved bumiputra investors, Astro employees or the retail investors sell the shares?
Note that none of them got their shares at a discount all the 22 cornerstone and Miti investors paid RM3 per share, just like the retail investors.
One unsubstantiated theory was that the selling was being done by those who got the Astro shares at a discount or worse, for free! That theory is far-fetched, as it wasn't disclosed in the prospectus which parties were getting shares at a discount or for free. But this if this is true, then some explanation is needed.
Another rumour is that the selling is by some institutions who had bought the shares only with the interest of dumping them on listing day. In other words, they weren't interested in holding the stock.
There's also the theory that the selling is by those who used margin financing the buy the shares. After the price dipped below IPO, these investors weren't able or did not want to fork out the amount required to top up their margin accounts. So, they preferred to sell the shares and just take the one-time hit.
Yet another theory is that the major shareholders are selling, considering that their cost is below the IPO price, so they will still pocket the profits.
That possibility though is highly unlikely. Both Ananda and Khazanah Nasional Bhd had already sold a lot of their shares in the IPO exercise. So why jeopardise the performance of an IPO that they already made tons of money from? Khazanah has a lock-in period for the shares.
Despite the selling or maybe because of it, it is noteworthy that those driving Astro's business are taking the opportunity to buy some of the stock on the cheap. These include Astro's two top bosses including its CEO and COO - Datuk Datuk Rohana Rozhan and Henry Tan respectively.
Whatever the case, it is possible that the mystery of the sale will be revealed soon when shareholder changes are posted on Bursa Malaysia. Then again, there is no assurance of that because only substantial shareholder changes will be recorded.
The seller may be holding less than 5% and if that is the case, it will remain a mystery as to who sold the shares and whether the party will continue to do so.

Success is sweet for Cocoaland


Saturday October 27, 2012

By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my

Cocoaland Bhd sees its best bet of expanding the business onto the next plateau of growth through organic means as it is spurred by the growing consumer consumption for sugar confectionary candies.
In an interview with StarBizWeek, founder and executive director Liew Fook Meng says that the company's expansion plans for the next few years would open up new capacity for the company to fill and also to leverage on the strength of its substantial shareholder, F&N Holdings Bhd for its beverage business.
“The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently as sometimes we are faced by supply constraints when demand picks up,” he says.
Besides planning to spend about RM30mil to set up its sixth factory in Rawang, the company would invest about RM44mil to increase production of its hard candy and fruit gummy confectionery.
This will more than double its total production capacity to 4.6 million kg of hard candy and 11.7 million kg of fruit gummy from the current capacity of one million kg and 4.5 million kg respectively.
In the meantime, Liew is setting his eyes on the bigger picture now and is following closely the developments of the takeover of Singapore-listed F&N by Thai Beverage Plc, one of the largest beverage producers in Asia.
Liew: ‘The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently.’Liew: ‘The additional capacity would free up the bottleneck that we have currently.’
With F&N as its penultimate strategic partner with a 27% stake via F&N Holdings, the developments would have an impact the direction of the company.
Plans are afoot for the group to set up its franchise business model which would see Cocoaland manufacturing and marketing its products under the franchisor's brand name.
“We are still in the negotiation stage with a few well-known international companies, and we expect to sign up a few franchise businesses to start in financial year 2013 after the new lines for gummy and hard candy have been fully-installed and commercialised,” he says.
While Cocoaland is now synonymous with its fruit gummy products under the Lot 100 brand, and its partnership with F&N, the company is looking out for partnerships and work with other food brands.
“Besides F&N, we currently have other clients like GlaxoSmithKline,Ribena21st Century, and Coffeebean. We intend to increase penetration in export markets like China, Vietnam and Indonesia with our fruit gummy and CocoPie products,” he says. A wide range of its products are carried by local retail stores, and besides the domestic market, the group has been supplying confectionery to overseas market such as the United States, Japan, Middle East, Hong Kong, Australia and Europe.
The export market's share to the group's overall revenue has increased progressively from 46.5% in financial year 2009 to 54.2% in the first half of 2012.
Cocoaland has a market capitalisation of about RM400mil, and its journey has been one that is synonymous with other success stories.Cocoaland story began when two brothers started out as small time vendors selling deep-fried snacks and banana fritters in the Klang Valley.They got their first break when an acquaintance decided to dispose of his chocolate coating operations.
“That time we don't even have a name yet. And with RM10,000 in hand, we bought his machines and decided to venture into that business,” he says.
The brothers finally got their first break in the mid-1980s when they carved a niche for themselves in the market to manufacture polytubed drinks, which opened doors to the overseas market, and for the first time exporting to the Middle East.
The first factory was set up in Kampar in the 1980s and the second success story came in the form of “Koko Jelly” with its second factory in Kepong to manufacture the chocolate coated jelly that was well-received by the public. Today, the group is managed by 10 siblings.
AmResearch recently reaafirmed its “buy” call on the company, with a higher fair value of RM3.05 per share as it says the group is poised to hit an earnings inflexion point.
It says the group's three-year compounded annual growth rate of 28% will be underpinned by additional production capacities and the deepening in distribution channels.
“We understand plans are afoot for the installation of a new line each for the production of hard candy and fruit gummy to alleviate current supply constraint. Upon commercialisation by first quarter 2013, the new lines are expected to lift installed capacities by 360% for hard candies and 160% for gummies. This potentially translates into an additional RM158mil of revenue per annum,” it says.
For its first half ended June, the company recorded a revenue of RM110.74mil, passing the halfway mark of what it achieved for the entire 2011 at RM173.9mil. Net profit stood at RM12.2mil for the period under review, more than half its net profit of RM19.19mil for year ended 2011.
Its net profit was halved in 2010 to RM9.8mil from RM19.6mil previously due to slower sales, and losses it incurred after terminating a joint-venture production facility in China's Fujian province to manufacture fruit gummy for the China market.

Coastal plans to diversify


Saturday October 27, 2012

By PHILIP CHOO
pchoo@thestar.com.my


SANDAKAN: With Sabah set to become Malaysia's oil and gas hub, particularly in deep-water oilfield developments off the state's west coast, Coastal Contracts Bhd is actively pursuing strategic opportunities to diversify into other oil and gas-related business, such as offshore structure fabrication business, floating storage and offloading and floating production, storage and offloading.
Recently, one of the group's yards in Sandakan, measuring 52 acres, had been upgraded and it is now capable of erecting offshore structures and the group is looking forward to tap into this potential new phase of growth via collaboration with strategic partners that complement the group's technical capabilities in the fabrication business.
Executive chairman Ng Chin Heng said despite the global economic slowdown, the group managed to clinch its third major vessel sales order amounting to RM111mil in relatively quick succession, following its major deal of RM141mil in August.
“This is mainly attributable to the Coastal group's appropriate marketing strategy, as well as great effort contributed by its marketing team,” Ng told StarBizWeek.
The latest contract has brought the total of RM743mil worth of vessel orders awaiting delivery to customers up to 2013.
Ng said although earnings in the first half had been hampered by lower number of vessels delivered, he nevertheless added that shipbuilding revenue stream for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2012 (FY12) could be comparable with FY11.
However, Ng cautioned that that would happen barring any unforeseen factors which might result in late delivery of vessels or cancellation of sales
contract, and also any adverse changes in the US dollar-ringgit exchange rate.
The group posted a lower net profit of RM190.64mil in FY11 compared with RM200.79mil in FY10. However, revenue was up 6.5% at RM719.13mil from RM675.05mil in 2010.
“We are lucky that so far Coastal has not encountered any substantial cost over-runs since its public listing in August 2003,” he added.
In view of the continued uncertainty in the eurozone and an expected slowdown in global economic growth, the management hoped the group's revenue stream for FY13 would remain stable, Ng said, adding: “There should be no major breakthrough for the group's revenue for FY13 unless it
managed to secure big ticket oil and gas upstream projects.”
Coastal was established in 1976 by a local merchant in Sabah as a shipping company, operating merely a few used tugs and barges for commodities transportation within the Borneo region.
In 1982, when Ng, then a rubber trader, took over Coastal in the midst of the 1980s crisis and ran the business together with his wife and brothers with no knowledge of the business, little did they know that their fledging business would develop into one of the region's most prevalent marine and offshore support services provider.
Today, listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd, Coastal operates shipyards of over 90 acres and has built and delivered a diverse fleet of more than 330 units of conventional tugs, barges, landing crafts and offshore support vessels to worldwide customers.
Coastal has the prestigious honour of being featured in Forbes Asia's list of 200 Best Under a Billion for six years running (2006 to 2011). The annual list picked 200 top-performing publicly-traded corporations in Asia Pacific (with annual revenue between US$5mil and US$1bil) based on earnings growth, sales growth and return on equity over three years.

Asian banks scramble for dollar bonds

Asian banks scramble for dollar bonds
(The Philippine Star) Updated October 02, 2012


MANILA, Philippines -  Asian banks are in a mad scramble to raise US dollars to meet the stiff capital requirements under the Basel III framework.

Banks are sweeping as much dollars as can be found in the global market as European borrowers are holding on to their dollars “during these hard times.”

According to FinanceAsia, Asian borrowers want a steady and reliable source of dollars for their funding needs as well as capital needs for protection.

“Indeed, bank borrowers in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand have all tapped dollar markets during the past few weeks and there could be more to come as banks strive to avoid a repeat of the dollar funding crunch they experienced during the crisis,” the prestigious regional publication said.

In the recent weeks, Bangkok Bank raised $1.2 billion, Citic Bank $300 million, and RHB Bank $200 million.

The bonds offer a coupon of 3.875 percent and were priced at 99.824 to yield 3.9 percent, or 325 basis points over US Treasuries, after tightening guidance down from 350 bp during the course of the day. Citic is rated Baa2 by Moody’s and BBB by Fitch. HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland were joint global coordinators and joint bookrunners alongside BBVA and Nomura.

“Asian investors bought 80 percent of the deal while the rest went to Europe. Fund managers took 63 percent, banks 18 percent, private banks 14 percent, insurers and others five percent. There was a $0.20 discount for private bank buyers,” FinanceAsia noted.

It added that Bangkok Bank became the fourth Thai borrower to tap the market in little more than a week, despite having been the first to launch a roadshow. Kasikornbank, PTT Global Chemical and Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) all beat it to market.

On the upside, Bangkok Bank was the only one of the banks raising 10-year money in the US, under Rule 144a, which meant that it enjoyed decent support and managed to perform better than its Thai peers – the $400 million five-and-a-half-year tranche came at 212.5bp over Treasuries, while the $800 million 10-year tranche came at 215bp.

FinanciaAsia further noted that demand of around $7 billion was skewed toward the 10-year tranche, which attracted $4.6 billion of orders from 250 accounts, with 49 percent placed with investors in Asia, 16 percent went to Europe and the remaining 35 percent to the US. By account type, 60 percent went to fund managers, 20 percent to insurers, 12 percent to banks, seven percent to private banks and one percent to others.

The five-and-a-half-year tranche attracted $2.8 billion of orders from 200 accounts and was distributed in a similar way to the 10-year, with the bulk of the deal going to fund managers in Asia and the US.


http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=854857&publicationSubCategoryId=74

Wednesday 31 October 2012

Public Bank - Malaysia's strongest bank in 2012


Public Bank has leapfrogged both CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd to the top spot in 2012 as Malaysia’s strongest bank, according to the Asian Banker 500 2012 (AB500) report.

“This was largely due to the cost and risk management as a result of the conservative approach of the bank,” the report said.

Further, the report also said that the Asia Pacific banking sector is expected to remain resilient as economies in the region continue to expand in 2011 albeit at a slower pace than last year.

Singapore-based financial services community strategic business intelligence provider Asian Banker said the Asia-Pacific regional banks saw a significant acceleration in asset growth in 2011 while the largest 500 banks from the US and the European Union did not grow as fast.

“If the momentum holds, Asia-Pacific regional banks are likely to overtake their Western peers by 2014.

“This is primarily due to a combination of resilient economic performance of the region’s economies, increasing private wealth and growth in the number of Asian highnet- worth individuals and continual retrenchment of some Western banks from Asia and growing regional expansion by Asia-based banks,” it said in a statement.

Asian Banker said key performance indicators of the banking sector in the Asia-Pacific region such as assets, loans, deposits and net profit grew over 15% last year.

“In particular, net profit growth remains staggering at 43% to US$315.9 billion (RM958.3 billion) albeit slower than 2010’s growth rate of 53%,” it said.

Asian Banker said 2011 has been a good year for banks in Malaysia, achieving weighted average asset growth of 21.7% year-on-year (YoY) which was among the top in the Asia-Pacific region.

“The growth was mainly fostered by the strong and resilient gross domestic product growth of the Malaysian economy and Islamic banking growth of 5.1% YoY and 33% YoY in 2011 respectively as Malaysian banks embark on a regional expansion strategy in an attempt to increase their regional presence and to diversify their geographical revenue sources,” it said.

Asia-Pacific regional banks have been shoring up their capital positions as implementation of the new Basel III requirements draws near, it said. “Asset-weighted average Tier 1 and total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) grew much stronger to 14% and 16.5% in 2011 from 9.1% and 12.3% in 2010 respectively.

“For this iteration, Singapore and Philippine banks rank among the highest for Tier 1 and total CAR respectively,” it said. Asian Banker said lack of sovereign debts deter Asia-Pacific regional banks’ compliance to Basel III liquidity requirements.

“Although banks are able to withstand long-term stress to their operations as reflected in their strong capital positions, short-term risks such as liquidity continue to be one of the top issues for Asia-Pacific regional banks,” it said.

AB500 research manager Doron Foo said some regional banks in countries such as Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are still unable to satisfy Basel III liquidity requirements due to the lack of sovereign debt in their domestic countries.

http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2338:public-bank-ranked-as-strongest-bank-in-msia&catid=36:corporate-malaysia&Itemid=120

Panic Buying


What It Is:
Panic buying refers to the purchase of a stock immediately after a sudden, substantial price increase.

How it works/Example:
Investors watching the market may jump to buy a stock immediately after a major move in the stock's price, hoping to take advantage of the surge in the price.

Why it matters:
Investors may buy stock for a number of reasons. Fear of being left out of the next big thing, however, is not the best reason. Panic buying usually is the result of the herd instinct among some investors. While there may be some gains on the residual increase in the price spike, it is often too little, too late.


https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/13ab421d8b1c529a

Tuesday 30 October 2012

Spotting Sharks Among Penny Stocks


October 30 2012


For every publicly traded corporations with market capitalization in the hundreds of millions and billions, there are thousands of smaller companies with much more modest market caps. Because these companies have smaller operations and more risks, they trade at only a fraction of the price of their much larger counterparts. These are, of course, the infamous penny stocks. This article will look at some of the dangers that lurk in penny stocks trading.

The Myth Of Evolution
One thing that keeps people dabbling in penny stocks is the belief that these corporations will evolve into firms that will become much like their larger counterparts. This has happened, but not as regularly as penny stock proponents would have you believe.

Many public firms simply defer going public until they have grown large enough for it to be worthwhile. Until that time, they will usually raise money through private investors or corporate loans along with their regular operations. Generally, these companies do not need an initial public offering (IPO) to fund an expansion. The larger a company becomes, the more practical it is to raise funds through a public offering, because although equity is seen as a relatively more expensive form of financing, it often becomes necessary for larger companies.

Good Intentions?

If a company is offering its stock at the penny level, it is usually for one of the following reasons. First, the company may be on the cusp of a large expenditure, and it believes that the money raised by an IPO will be enough to finance it. Second, the company may have reached the apex of its growth and it wants to change its tax structure or disperse the profits.

There are also less noble reasons for a company to go through an IPO process when it is still quite small. Sometimes a company is talked into an overpriced and overhyped IPO by penny stock brokerage firms that want to make a quick dollar from unwary investors. An IPO could also be an attempt by the company's owners to offload their ownership to investors because they see little promise in the company's future.

Oranges and Apples
It is important to remember that within penny stocks, there is a wide range of companies. You can find an oil prospecting company with a recognizable corporate structure right next to a family-run organic farm that specializes in cabbage. Some of those companies may allow investors to have a say in who is running the show, and some may be one-man operations that suffer terribly when the founder retires or dies. And while larger companies generally strive to please investors, penny stock companies may pay no mind to their investors at all.

The Bait
Not many value investors spend their time in penny stocks. Although a well-managed penny stock company may see good returns over the years, it is much more difficult to get full disclosure and the rules that apply to penny stocks are much looser. These companies do not face the same standards as large firms, are required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) less frequently and have limited requirements for listing.

What lures investors into the oceans of penny stocks is the dream of buying 1,000 shares for $0.50 and then later selling them for $5 or some similarly lucrative transaction. Unfortunately, that ocean is full of sharks that know exactly what you're looking for.

The Bite
Some people think that brokerage firms that specialize in penny stocks are often just a step up from a guy with a bat waiting to rob someone in a dark alley. Successful companies don't need people to cold call and talk up their stocks. Penny stockbrokers engage in a mixture of cold calling and targeted sells. They often have a collection of leads, people who have had a history of buying into poor investments over the phone or who have given their information to someone who turned around and sold it.
These firms, and the brokers that support them, will often use techniques such as advertising in mass emails. You may see mailings in your account about the latest greatest stock that is set to return 1,000%. In all cases, without doubt, it is a penny stock, and one you probably should avoid. 

Multiple Victims
Sometimes the companies involved in these swindles are complicit, but even honest companies find their stocks targeted by unscrupulous penny stockbrokers. These sharks may take an innocent company that has had a few good years and make false publications or claims that "insiders" have said it is poised for a leap. When the brokers pull out, they have not only ripped off investors but also ruined the reputation of an otherwise stalwart company.

Blood in the Water
If an investor has the poor judgment to get involved with penny stockbrokers, he or she may find a permanent target painted on his or her back. Because of the profits and commissions involved, these brokers will persist with their calls until they get your check - after that the calls will dry up and the number may even change. Many of the sharks in penny stock brokerages have securities violations on their records, but it is their ability to sell that keeps other firms hiring them - and it is dishonest profits that keep penny stock brokerage firms in business.

The Bottom Line
By and large, attempts to regulate penny stocks have been thwarted. The low prices make them ideal for manipulation because a few false cents per share can mean thousands if you hold most of the shares. The internet has also offered a whole new medium by which to cheat investors. For every site that exposes penny stock fraud, there are hundreds of sites espousing one undiscovered treasure or another. The best way to avoid getting swindled in the penny stocks is just to stay out of the water - if you don't swim, you won't be bitten.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/penny_stocks.asp#ixzz2AmZW70kj

Politicians should not assume that the Malaysian voters are not smart.


'Exodus at MCA dinner not sign of flaccid support'


Politicians should not assume that the voters are not smart.  In fact, the Malaysian voters are very intelligent in exercising their votes.  This was evident over the many elections over the years since Independence.  Let us bring forth a new political era whereby the government is a clean, efficient, responsible and responsive one.  Above all, everyone will benefit from having a good government in place.  For this, our institutions need to be respected and strengthened.  Due respect to the processes should be in placed and applied fairly and equally to all.  The checks and counter-checks to ensure an efficient, clean, and responsive government should be in placed.  

The focus should be on issues.  Addressing these issues adequately and pragmatically is the least demanded of the politicians by the voters.  Issues should be debated responsibly, carefully and intelligently in the context of our multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-religious and multi-racial country.  The politicians with integrity, intelligence and who are willing to work hard, should be elected to serve.

Since the last election, there was enough time for parties to reform their political agenda and directions to accommodate the changing views and desires of the Malaysian.

This forthcoming election is above all allowing Malaysians to freely exercise their rights as citizens to pick the good government that they wish to have in place.  Hopefully, through our democratic processes and the high quality responsible leaderships provided by the leaders of all parties, Malaysians can be proud of the outcome of any elections carried out irrespective of whichever party wins.



Saturday 27 October 2012

DiGi Q3 net profit rises 7.84%


Wednesday October 24, 2012

The third largest mobile operator by subscribers in the country said revenue growth in the third quarter was moderate because of the impact of its ongoing network modernisation.
“We expect better revenue momentum in the fourth quarter from network improvement and seasonality,” DiGi said.
DiGi also declared a third interim tax-exempt dividend of 4 sen per share and a one-off special tax-exempt dividend of 8 sen for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2012.
Meanwhile, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins for its third quarter stood at 45.2% from 47.6% in the second quarter.
“The quarter-on-quarter decline was on account of the lost revenue opportunities' explained earlier and IDD margin pressure.
“Nevertheless, overall EBITDA margins for 2012 should be on par with the 2011 EBITDA margin as guided,” DiGi stated.
Its chief executive officer Henrik Clausen said in a press release that the company had committed to invest between RM700mil to RM750mil this year to modernise its network to cater for the increased demand from data users and is at the halfway point of rolling out this network.
“Our ambition is to provide access to high-speed Internet and next-generation services for all our customers, and in the first nine months of 2012 we have pushed harder than ever to make data accessible and affordable to everyone on a mobile device, and meet our customers' demand for high quality mobile Internet experience,” Clausen said.

Friday 26 October 2012

DEVELOPMENT OF MALAYSIAN STOCK MARKET: AN OVERVIEW

Toy Jun Zheng; August 2007

After decades of worldwide recognition as a joint stock market with Singapore, the Malaysian stock market finally detangled itself as a separate market in 1973 and eventually renamed itself from the initial Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange to the recently-known Bursa Malaysia in 2004. The journey was tough, with the domestic stock market experiencing four crashes, which were the 1973, 1981, 1987 and the devastating 1997. Each survival from the previous crash made the stock market stronger and more matured, and finally led to the establishment of the Securities Commission (SC) in 1993, a statutory body empowered to supervising all the public companies in Malaysia. This had exhibited the commitment of the Malaysian Government in stabilizing and promoting a healthier domestic financial system. Our domestic stock market capitalization reached and stood at a handsome $300 billion at the month of April 2007. But what’s next ahead of our 50 years of independence? 

From an economic viewpoint, the Malaysian economy could be seen as a “finance-led” growth economy, with the growth of the finance sector especially the stock market, assisting or even creating the momentum of the economic growth. The stock market is seen to be acting the role of allocating resources in efficient manners which would then spur growth (Chong, Zulkornain Yusop, Law & Sen 2003). Funds,especially from foreign investors through the domestic stock market play significant roles in financing the domestic enterprises which in the end would increase the domestic output. As so, the development of the domestic stock market should not be neglected when we are considering of stimulating the domestic economic growth but should be seen as a whole. Some more, the endogenous growth model which emphasizes the importance of the role of stock market development along the path of real development prompts us to pay much more efforts than we have to develop the domestic stock market when speaking of pushing the economic growth (Bose 2005). But, unfortunately, the next 10 or 50 years to come would post great challenges in our efforts to do so. This is due to the emergence of plenty of new and attractive markets in the world that would shed our domestic market’s attractiveness globally. All these, in my opinion, should bring to our great concern and should constitute the main themes for developing the stock market in the future. But, where should we start? 



An examination into the current weaknesses and issues of our domestic stock market and solving them would help in the first place, before we should even think of promoting our stock market internationally. Attractiveness should be from the inside and not from mere seen beauty. As so, we should first examine the two important issues of our domestic stock market, which are laid out below.

The Malaysian stock market is always seen as the one with poor institutional structures. Concentrated ownerships, loose judiciary system and etc are some of the main culprits. Poor institutional structures such as the examples mentioned would to some extend deprive a person’s freedom to own and increase wealth and would then discourage people to invest. Why would a person invest in businesses when the judiciary power to enforce contracts is not stringent? Why would foreign investors invest when they can’t perform their shareholders’ rights to the degree of what they should have regarding to the operations of businesses, due to concentrated ownerships? As a result, these poor institutional structures would cause the stock market to be less developed and would eventually retard the domestic economic growth (Castaneda 2006).

The second problem applies to all stock markets through out the world and not just to our domestic stock market: the disequilibrium between the growth of the financial market and the economic growth. In essence, it means that the growth of the financial market (in terms of the amount of funds brought in) do not synchronize with the ability of the domestic economy to absorb. Overgrowth occurs and fueled future crashes. A high investment to GDP ratio would not necessarily be a good sign if the funds could not be allocated efficiently (Liu & Hsu 2006). Adverse selection and moral hazards take place and consume the financial sensibility. This is identical to what had happened to our domestic stock market in 1997. Thus, great efforts should be put into synchronizing the growth of the stock market and the economic growth, which would be extremely difficult, if not impossible.

What steps that we can take to solve the problems or at least, improve our domestic stock market to a better stage? First, we can have further deregulations of the financial system. Self regulation is always a better way to develop the financial system rather than the central regulative actions. But, all these improved-openness should be within the boundaries of a more stringent judiciary system that protects investors. We could also practice capital controls on foreign direct investments, such as the one done in the past. The control of these foreign inflows of funds would prove to be useful when we try to minimize the gap of the disequilibrium between the stock market growth and the economic growth. Though, the trade-off of a higher economic growth rate without controls should be taken into considerations as well.

What we have done in developing the domestic stock market or the financial system as a whole in the past has been great. What to come after our 50 years of independence? Only time has the answer. 

KLSE Market PE is 17.7 (19.10.12)

KLCI 19.10.12
Index Stock M.Cap Earnings Dividends Equty (BV)
Stock Name Price (RM m) (RM m) (RM m) (RM m)
AMBANK 6.44 19411.3 1528.4 601.8 11152.5
AXIATA 6.68 56828.1 2377.7 1591.2 19396.4
BAT 64.00 18273.9 719.4 785.8 431.1
CIMB 7.62 56637.7 4016.9 1642.5 25940.4
DIGI 5.48 42607.0 1253.1 1363.4 1399.5
GAMUDA 3.43 7139.1 549.2 249.9 4058.7
GENM 3.59 21315.5 1501.1 511.6 12528.1
GENTING 8.75 32545.5 2880.1 292.9 17741.9
HLBANK 14.20 26694.7 1866.8 720.8 2312.3
HLFG 12.84 13517.5 1165.3 256.8 8495.8
IOICORP 5.06 32530.5 1787.4 1008.4 11122.1
KLK 21.42 22865.9 1577.0 914.6 7088.2
MAXIS 6.87 51528.5 2525.9 2988.7 8100.6
MAYBANK 9.09 75142.9 5692.6 3005.7 36207.5
MHB 4.74 7584.0 206.6 159.3 2432.0
MISC 4.23 18881.8 0.0 0.0 22318.9
MMCCORP 2.70 8221.7 334.2 123.3 6212.0
PBBANK 14.88 52555.0 3503.7 1681.8 14975.3
PCHEM 6.56 52480.0 2637.2 1259.5 20080.0
PETDAG 22.24 22094.4 655.6 795.4 4778.5
PETGAS 19.70 38981.0 1079.8 779.6 8864.7
PPB 12.60 14937.3 982.7 268.9 14060.0
RHBCAP 7.48 16723.5 1534.3 568.6 11603.6
SIME 9.79 58832.6 4143.1 2118.0 26021.0
TENAGA 6.96 38348.4 504.6 230.1 30469.3
TM 6.05 21643.3 1189.2 692.6 6975.9
UMW 10.08 11776.4 503.3 365.1 4264.3
YTL 1.79 19033.9 1252.2 209.4 13291.8
YTLPOWR 1.63 11956.2 1245.4 346.7 9535.6
TOTAL 871087.6 49213.0 25532.2 361858.0
Market PE 17.7
Market DY 2.9%
Mark cap/BV 2.4
ROE 13.6%
Earnings Yield 5.6%
Risk free interest 3.5%
Equity Risk Premium 2.1% (Fairly Priced)
KLCI
19.10.2012 1666.35



https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B-RRzs61sKqRS1pfNC12NHlhOWM

Leverage and Risk


The most obvious risk of leverage is that it multiplies losses. 
  • A corporation that borrows too much money might face bankruptcy during a business downturn, while a less-levered corporation might survive. 
  • An investor who buys a stock on 50% margin will lose 40% of his money if the stock declines 20%.
There is an important implicit assumption in that account, however, which is that the underlying levered asset is the same as the unlevered one.
  • If a company borrows money to modernize, or add to its product line, or expand internationally, the additional diversification might more than offset the additional risk from leverage.  
  • Or if an investor uses a fraction of his or her portfolio to margin stock index futures and puts the rest in a money market fund, he or she might have the same volatility and expected return as an investor in an unlevered equity index fund, with a limited downside.

So while adding leverage to a given asset always adds risk, it is not the case that a levered company or investment is always riskier than an unlevered one. In fact, many highly-levered hedge funds have less return volatility than unlevered bond funds, and public utilities with lots of debt are usually less risky stocks than unlevered technology companies.

Popular risks

There is a popular prejudice against leverage rooted in the observation that people who borrow a lot of money often end up badly. But the issue here is those people are not leveraging anything, they're borrowing money for consumption.

In finance, the general practice is to borrow money to buy an asset with a higher return than the interest on the debt. That at least might work out. People who consistently spend more than they make have a problem, but it's overspending (or underearning), not leverage. The same point is more controversial for governments.

People sometimes borrow money out of desperation rather than calculation. That also is not leverage. But it is true that leverage sometimes increases involuntarily. When Long-Term Capital Management collapsed with over 100 to 1 leverage, it wasn't that the principals tried to run the firm at 100 to 1 leverage, it was that as equity eroded and they were unable to liquidate positions, the leverage level was beyond their control. One hundred to one leverage was a symptom of their problems, not the cause (although, of course, part of the cause was the 27 to 1 leverage the firm was running before it got into trouble, and the 55 to 1 leverage it had been forced up to by mid-August 1998 before the real troubles started).  But the point is the fact that collapsing entities often have a lot of leverage does not mean that leverage causes collapses.

Involuntary leverage is a risk.  It means that as things get bad, leverage goes up, multiplying losses as things continue to go down. This can lead to rapid ruin, even if the underlying asset value decline is mild or temporary.  The risk can be mitigated by negotiating the terms of leverage, and by leveraging only liquid assets.




Forced position reductions

A common misconception is that levered entities are forced to reduce positions as they lose money. This is only true if the entity is run at maximum leverage.

The point is that it is using maximum leverage that can force position reductions, not simply using leverage. It often surprises people to learn that hedge funds running at 10 to 1 or higher notional leverage ratios hold 80 percent or 90 percent cash.


Model risk

Another risk of leverage is model risk. Economic leverage depends on model assumptions.  If that assumption is incorrect, the fund may have much more economic leverage than it thinks. For example, if refinery capacity is shut down by a hurricane, the price of oil may fall (less demand from refineries) while the price of gasoline might rise (less supply from refineries). A 5% fall in the price of oil and a 5% rise in the price of gasoline could wipe out the fund.

Counterparty risk

Leverage may involve a counterparty, either a creditor or a derivative counterparty. It doesn't always do that, for example a company levering by acquiring a fixed asset has no further reliance on a counterparty.

In the case of a creditor, most of the risk is usually on the creditor's side, but there can be risks to the borrower, such as demand repayment clauses or rights to seize collateral.  If a derivative counterparty fails, unrealized gains on the contract may be jeopardized. These risks can be mitigated by negotiating terms, including mark-to-market collateral.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)

Leverage

Using OPM (other people's money) to make money is smart business as long as the company doesn't go over its head in debt.

From the perspective of a shareholder, the more revenue-producing assets a company can put into play without requiring more money from the shareholders, the better.

The downside, of course, is the vulnerability issue and what creditors might do if the income dries up enough to make servicing the debt difficult or impossible.

Common ratios to evaluate leverage are:

1.  Debt to Assets (Total Debt / Total Assets)
2.  Assets to Equity (Total Assets / Shareholder Equity)
3.  Debt to Equity (Total Debt / Shareholder Equity)
4.  Debt to Capital (Long-term Debt / Total Capitalization)


Don't base an investment solely on any of the ratios above.  Their most useful purpose could be to call your attention to possible upcoming changes in your quality criteria and might lead you to be more vigilant about them as you manage your portfolio.



Debt Service


For those companies with high leverage, you should also look at their ability to service their debts.  For this, look at these ratios:

1.  Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)
2.  Interest and Principal Coverage  [EBIT / (Interest + Adjusted Principal Repayments)]




Definition of 'Leverage Ratio'

Any ratio used to calculate the financial leverage of a company to get an idea of the company's methods of financing or to measure its ability to meet financial obligations. There are several different ratios, but the main factors looked at include debt, equity, assets and interest expenses.


Investopedia explains 'Leverage Ratio'

The most well known financial leverage ratio is the debt-to-equity ratio. For example, if a company has $10M in debt and $20M in equity, it has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5 ($10M/$20M).

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leverageratio.asp#ixzz2ALwlASAr