myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday 12 October 2010

The Top 5 Ways to Lose Money Investing

The Top 5 Ways to Lose Money Investing

By Dan Dzombak
October 11, 2010

It is heart-wrenching when you hear stories of investors losing their life savings for avoidable reasons. A recent story in Bloomberg BusinessWeek about Leona Miller, an 84-year-old retired beautician who invested in derivatives, got me thinking of ways people lose money in stocks and how to avoid them.

1. Investing in a product or business you don't understand

Leona Miller bought a structured note called a "reverse convertible note with a knock-in put option tied to Merck stock." Even I was unsure what this meant, and this is one of the more basic structured notes.

Leona collected a 9% coupon and the right to receive her initial capital back at maturity. However, if at any time Merck fell below a certain level (called the "knock-in" level), instead of giving Leona her money back, the bank could give her a predetermined number of shares of Merck. As long as Merck's stock didn't fall, Leona collected her 9%.

If Merck did fall, she would lose huge amounts of money. As you might expect, Merck's price fell below the "knock-in" price, and Leona was left holding stock worth 30% less than her initial investment. I am hard-pressed to believe any amateur investor could fully understand exactly what a "reverse convertible note with a knock-in put option" is. By investing in products you don't understand, you are setting yourself up for disaster.

Peter Lynch has said to invest in businesses and products you understand. Leona's broker wrote that she was familiar with Merck as they manufactured one of her medications. Baloney!

Many people own mortgages and are having trouble paying them off, but that doesn't mean they should go out and invest in Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) or Chimera Investments (NYSE: CIM), which are real-estate investment trusts (REITs) that specialize in buying up mortgage-backed securities and assessing the risk inherent in residential real estate.

If you don't have an understanding of how a business truly works, don't invest in it! There are many simple businesses out there that anyone can understand.

Two examples: Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) has warehouses with DVDs and mail them to people that pay a monthly fee. Waste Management (NYSE: WM) collects trash and recycling. It's that simple.

2. Speculating

If the price of a stock you own drops by 50% tomorrow, do you like the stock more? If not, you are speculating. For example, if Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) drops by half tomorrow, Godsend! It's a financially sound business, recurring revenues, and a strong brand. I would love to be able to buy shares at $25 compared to the $50 per share you can get them for today.

3. Ignoring incentives

If you give someone incentives they will game them, meaning: Do what is in their best interest.

Regular investors, you would never ask a used car salesman if you need another car, or a life insurance salesman if you need more life insurance, so why would you ask a stock broker for advice on stocks? They don't have a professional obligation to put your interests before theirs, what's known as a fiduciary responsibility. If you are looking for advice, seek out a reputable financial advisor and double check they aren't merely brokers under a different name. Make sure they put your interests first and aren't being paid extra based on what funds and products you choose.

Stock pickers, if management is paid and incentivized based on revenue goals or share price goals, management will game them. Be wary of investing in companies with perverse management incentives, and recognize how management will likely game their incentives. Invest in companies in which management owns a considerable stake and how your interests and managements interests are aligned. The best example is Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), whose management of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger own a combined 24% of the company's stock.

4. Ignoring valuation

Buying outrageously priced companies is setting yourself up for disaster. Investors' memories are very short; does anyone remember the tech stock crash? Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is trading at 100 times earnings. If you want to earn 10% on your money annually, the company must grow its earnings 30% a year for 10 years! One misstep and Baidu will be crushed. Buying a stock hoping to sell it to the next sucker that comes along is a fool's game; buy undervalued companies.

5. Putting all your eggs in one basket

When I meet people who have 50% or more of their portfolio in their company's stock I shudder. While they may "know" their company will do well, if something goes wrong they can be walloped by losing their jobs at the same time their portfolios take a dive. Anyone who worked at Lehman, Enron, etc., can attest to this.

This list could be much longer, but five is good enough for now (No. 6 would be paying high fees). As Warren Buffett once said, "An investor needs to do very little right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes." Avoid these mistakes and prosper.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/10/11/the-top-5-ways-to-lose-money-investing.aspx

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday 12 October 2010

The Top 5 Ways to Lose Money Investing

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

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