myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday 5 May 2009

Using Buffett's Simple Yet Powerful Philosophy

Invest Like Warren Buffett: A Simple Yet Powerful Philosophy for Investing

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Chairman, Investment U
September 26, 2002: Issue #174

Legendary investor Warren Buffett said yesterday in London that things aren’t that bad right now, and that the stock market is “way out of sync with the economy.”

When the greatest investor on the planet is optimistic, that’s as bullish a sign as you’ll find anywhere.

Warren Buffett became the second wealthiest man in the world (with $36 billion) by investing with one simple principle: He only invests in businesses he understands, and at prices so cheap that there’s plenty of margin for safety if things go wrong.

You, Too, Can Invest Like Buffett… Using His Simple Yet Powerful Philosophy

We’ve touched on these points before… but Warren Buffett has built a fortune based on a few simple ideas that anyone can follow. Let’s break Buffett’s basic investment philosophy down into two parts. You can use it to test your own investment decisions:

1. According to Buffett, you need to invest only in a business you understand… and NOT in companies you hear about at cocktail parties. Bottom line - if you don’t know what the company does then you shouldn’t invest. It’s your money. Take the time to do the homework and research on any company you’re considering investing in. Plenty of free tools are out there on the Internet to help you to this end.

2. Buffett also believes in buying cheap. Admittedly, the idea of “buy low, sell high” is easier said than done. But the point is a valid one: by buying “cheap” on what you invest in, you greatly reduce the chances of losing money. Think about it: you shop around for the best prices on nearly everything you buy. Likewise, why wouldn’t you do the same with your investments?

Warren Buffett’s Take on the Recent Market Declines: “Nothing Frightening”

When asked about the recent stock market declines, Buffett said: “I find nothing frightening about it at all. If I own a good business, I don’t really care whether the markets open tomorrow.”

“I have no idea what business is going to do next month or next year,” Buffett continued. “I don’t think it’s important whether you’re confident about tomorrow or next week.” Warren added that his confidence comes from taking a long-term view of the investment market and the economy.

“If the economy does well over a long period, markets will do well over a long period,” he said. “In the short run, the market’s a voting machine and sometimes people vote very unintelligently. In the long run, it’s a weighing machine and the weight of business and how it does is what affects values over time.”

Buffett in Conclusion

Much has been written about Warren Buffett in the last 20 years. Yet these few paragraphs sum up his simple investing philosophy. If he’d been asked these same basic questions 20 years ago, at the beginning of the great bull market, his answers would have probably been exactly the same. If you’re looking for comfort today, take it in the fact that the greatest investor of our time likes the market forecast and remains bullish.

One of the real keys to successful investing is having your own investment philosophy and sticking with it. If you don’t have one yet, you may want to borrow Warren Buffett’s. From zero to $36 billion in worth, I’d say it’s done okay for him

Good investing,
Steve
Today’s IU Crib Sheet

A final point about what Warren Buffett had to say: Taking a long-term view of the market and the economy is very important. In today’s world of real-time stock quotes, daily market analysis and the likeit’s very easy to become clouded by the news of the day (or the week.) But remember: if you’re investing for the long run you need to take a long-term view of the stock market. Try to avoid making hasty decisions based on the events of a few days or a few weeks.

More on this topic (What's this?)
Investing in Water Stocks (Clean Energy Sector, 4/17/09)
What I learned from Warren Buffett’s Most Recent Letter to Shareholders (Dividend Growth Investor, 2/28/09)
5 Common Warren Buffett Myths Debunked (Stock Trading To Go, 3/16/09)
Read more on Warren Buffett, How To Invest at Wikinvest

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2002/20020926.html

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday 5 May 2009

Using Buffett's Simple Yet Powerful Philosophy

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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