Wednesday 24 February 2010

Market timing/charting is ungrounded folly - Benjamin Graham

The activities of the enterprising investor in the stock market may be classified under 4 areas:

1. Buying in low markets and selling in high markets (Beware that this is Market timing)
2. Buying carefully chosen "growth stocks" (Learn the Paradox of Growth Stocks)
3. Buying bargain stocks (The tenet of value investing)
4. Buying into "special situations" (Only a few will benefit)


Buying in low markets and selling in high markets (Beware that this is Market timing)

From first inspection of a market chart covering its periodic fluctuations, buying low and selling high appeared both simple and feasible.

However, this market's action studied over many years has not lent itself to predictability by any mathematical means.

The fluctuations that have taken place, often considerable in extent, would have required a special talent or "feel" for trading to take advantage of them.  Operations based on such 'skills' are better excluded.

Benjamin Graham:  ..."market timing / charting" is ungrounded folly and is to be avoided by any intelligent investor.

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