Sunday 3 October 2010

Short cuts for finding value

Companies and shares are worth the present value of the future cash they can generate for their owners.  This is a rather simple statement, and yet in practice, valuing companies is not so straightforward.

As the famous economist John Maynard Keynes put it, it's better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong, and the better bet is to stick to a few simple valuation tools.  Here are some ways to value companies or shares:

1.  Discount cash flow method.

2.  Asset-based valuation tools.
  • Price/Book Value
  • Graham's Net Current Asset approach
3.  Earnings-based valuation tools.
  • PE ratio
4.  Cash flow-based valuation tools
  • DY
  • FCF Yield

    These different valuation tools each have their own strengths and weaknesses.
    • The price-to-book ratio tends to work best with low-quality businesses on steep discounts.  
    • The PER tends to work best with high-quality growth companies.  
    • The dividend yield and free cash flow yield tend to be suited to mature businesses generating steady returns.

    But in every case, you'll probably get closest to the truth by looking at all the different measures.

    Also, only invest in good quality businesses.

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