myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Conquer Your Fear of Investing

Updated: 8/11/2011

Many of the most worthwhile things in life are scary at first. Consider, for example, going to school for the first time, falling in love, learning to drive, starting a family, figuring out your new Tivo…

Investing is no exception. The thought of possibly losing money is a terrifying prospect. And the fact that today’s economy has seen better days probably isn’t helping those fears. Investing in the stock market has its risks. But if you give in to fear, you’ll pass up some incredible opportunities—ones that come with big dollar signs attached.

Now is actually a good time for young adults to bite the bullet and get started investing. Think of a market downturn as a clearance sale: It’s a good idea to go shopping before prices climb again.

Bottom line: Surrendering to fear only holds you back. If you want to get ahead financially, you’ve got to invest in your future. Below are five common excuses and the strategies you’ll need to overcome them.

FEAR: I don't want to lose all my money.

CONQUER IT: Diversify.

If your investments are too heavily-weighted in one stock or even one particular kind of stock, you can deep-six your savings goal. (Remember the tech bubble or, more recently, the financial services crisis?) Mutual funds are a good way to achieve instant diversification because they allow you to invest in dozens of stocks within a single fund.

One of the quickest ways to diversify, if you’re new to investing, is with a fund of funds that invests in other mutual stock funds. Or if you’d like something a little more conservative in this uncertain market, go for a so-called “balanced” fund that owns stocks as well as bonds. But bear in mind that for long-term goals, stocks should earn you the highest return.

FEAR: How will I know the best time to invest?

CONQUER IT: Dollar-cost average.

There’s no crystal ball that tells you exactly when the market will rise and fall. The trick is to invest regularly no matter what the market is doing. A simple strategy called dollar-cost averaging eliminates the guesswork. By investing a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals, such as every month or every quarter, you smooth out the ups and downs of the market. This trick takes out all the emotion—it’s scary to invest when the market’s falling, for example—and investing becomes much less daunting.

Mutual funds are, again, a great investment for dollar-cost averaging because you aren’t charged a commission each time you buy (like you are for individual stocks).

FEAR: I'm too queasy for the ups and downs of investing.

CONQUER IT: Ignore your investments.

When you obsess over how your investment is doing from day to day or week to week, you could be more tempted to tinker with it instead of sticking to your long-term diversified plan. Not to mention, you’ll probably lose sleep.That’s not to say you shouldn’t ever reevaluate your investment choices. Just don’t fixate on them.

FEAR: I don't have the time or knowledge to manage a portfolio well.

CONQUER IT: All-in-one funds or index funds.

Think simple. When you start investing and aren’t sure what you’re doing, don’t pretend you do. Truth is, most actively managed mutual funds don’t beat their market benchmarks. If those fund managers have the time, the education and the motivating paycheck, and they can’t pull it off, don’t worry if you’re afraid you can’t either.

Go with funds of funds to achieve instant diversification. Or assemble a simple index fund portfolio. Index funds don’t try to beat the market benchmarks, they match them. Put 75 percent of your money into a fund that tracks the overall U.S. stock market, 25 percent into one that tracks international stocks. Then let ’em ride. As your investments rise and fall, all you’ll have to do is realign your money every year or so to maintain the proper weighting in each fund.

One more way to set it and forget it: Sign up with your broker or fund company to have your regular contributions automatically withdrawn from your bank account.

FEAR: What if I need the money?

CONQUER IT: Set clear goals and choose your investments accordingly.

Before you start investing, write down what you’re investing for and when you think you’ll need the money.

If you’ll need the money within the next three to five years, preservation is your number-one aim. Put that money somewhere safe and accessible, such as a money market mutual fund or a high-yield online savings account. You could also opt for a bank certificate of deposit. But bear in mind your money is locked in for the term of the CD, and you’ll pay a hefty penalty if you need to cash out early.

If you’re investing for the long term, growth is your goal. Invest that money in a broad-based mutual fund that holds mostly stocks. If disaster strikes and you really need the money, you can cash out at any time – but you’ll have to pay taxes on the money you made.

http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2009/01/fred_frailey.html

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?