myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Friday, 25 November 2016

Growth Strategy of Malaysia's largest fund-manager, Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB)

Friday, 25 November 2016

Malaysia's largest fund-manager unveils strategic plan
BY HANIM ADNAN

Growth strategy: Wahid (right) speaking at the briefing on PNB Strategic Plan 2017 - 2022 as Abdul Rahman looks on. To attain its vision to be a distinctive world-class investment house, PNB has formulated the Strive 15 programme which comprises three pillars – enhancing sustainable returns, effective investment management and driving operational excellence.

KUALA LUMPUR: Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), the country’s largest fund-management company which has a new team at the helm, has unveiled a six-year strategic plan to deliver sustainable, consistent and competitive returns to its unitholders.

PNB has set a target to increase its total assets under management to about RM350bil by 2022 from about RM259.49bil currently.

In a rare press briefing on its performance, PNB disclosed that was expecting a gross income of RM18.64bil and a net income of RM15.18bil with a return on assets of about 6.1%.

According to group chairman Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar, PNB has been able to deliver consistent returns to its unitholders, with over RM136bil having been paid out since its inception 38 years ago.

PNB is currently the market leader in the local unit trust industry, managing RM220bil in unit trust assets with 12.8 million accounts, representing over a 60% market share in terms of total fund value.

PNB also expects the dividend payout this year to be maintained, said Wahid as he unveiled PNB’s Strategic Plan 2017-2022 yesterday.

Meanwhile, PNB president and group CEO Datuk Abdul Rahman Ahmad said PNB recognised the challenges ahead in the period of global uncertainty, given the flat global economic growth and low interest-rate environment.

“This is exacerbated further by the negative trend of the FBM KLCI for the past three consecutive years attributed by the weak shareholders’ return of large-cap Malaysian corporates over the period,” he added.

PNB is a major investor in Bursa Malaysia with investments of nearly RM170bil or 10% of the market capitalisation of the bourse.

Its strategic holdings are in Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Sime Darby Bhd, UMW Holdings Bhd, S P Setia Bhd, Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd and MNRB Holdings Bhd.

It also has sizeable stakes of more than 10% in large caps such as Axiata Group Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Telekom Malaysia Bhd.

To counter the challenges ahead, Abdul Rahman said the PNB Strategic Plan 2017-2022 would chart the way forward for the group to deliver sustainable, consistent and market-leading returns.

However, he said that corporate Malaysia has to perform.

“Companies should not undertake mergers and acquisitions without enhancing shareholder value. Every single action that they take should create shareholder value,” he added.

To attain PNB’s vision to be a distinctive world-class investment house, PNB has formulated the Strive 15 programme which comprises three pillars – enhancing sustainable returns, effective investment management and driving operational excellence.

Abdul Rahman said: “We have developed a clear strategic plan to address current and future challenges, thus ensuring PNB can sustain its performance for the next six years and beyond.”

He pointed out that PNB would continue to invest in high-performing Malaysian corporates.

“Our cash is sizeable and we will continue to invest whenever the opportunity arises, including in fixed income when the time is right.”

At the moment, out of PNB’s investment portfolio, the cash position is about 20% and fixed income is 4%.

A 20% cash holding is about RM50bil in terms of absolute amount.

Towards this end, Abdul Rahman said that it would be redeploying some assets to reduce its cash position when the opportunity arises.

“We think that while it is important to hold cash, RM50bil is a bit too much,” he said.

Wahid added that there were a lot of things that could be done and achieved with PNB’s existing strategic investments.

“We will work closely with the management and board of our strategic investment companies to see how we can further maximise returns and create more value for these companies,” said Wahid.

Recently, there was a news report of a break-up of Sime Darby, the conglomerate in which PNB has close to a 55% controlling stake.

Spculation has been rife that both Wahid and Abdul Rahman were keen on seeing the board of Sime Darby come up with a plan to unlock value by having more individually listed entities as opposed to a single public-listed parent holding an array of different businesses.

On PNB’s cash position, Abdul Rahman said that the current cash position of 20% of total assets was definitely not optimal and that PNB would be looking to deploy those monies to work soon.

“We will source for new strategic investments and core portfolio companies. Private equity and fixed income will be another asset class that we are looking to increase exposure to,” said Wahid.

“For now, given the weak ringgit, we will not move into acquiring global assets.”

Abdul Rahman, meanwhile, is bullish on the positive growth of PNB’s funds, given the lows in the earnings cycle, historically low foreign ownership and the fact that “not often the KLCI underperforms for three consecutive years”.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/25/pnb-unveils-strategic-plan/

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Friday, 25 November 2016

Growth Strategy of Malaysia's largest fund-manager, Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB)

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs