Sunday 29 March 2020

Technical Picture Remains Bearish


The technical picture continues to be bearish across the board, despite the mid-week surge in stocks, with all of the key trend indicators still pointing lower. 
The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow are still all well below their declining 50-day averages, and the benchmarks are also all below their 200-day moving averages. 
Small-caps finally showed relative strength during the crazy short-covering rally, but despite its positive week, the Russell 2000 closed below both its short-and long-term moving averages on Friday. 
The Volatility Index (VIX) only finished slightly lower despite the double-digit gains of the major indices, and the fear gauge closed the week above the still extremely high 65 level, due to the economic uncertainty.

Market internals improved substantially thanks to the broad rally, but even though a V-shaped recovery is not impossible, the current positive divergences have to be taken with a grain of salt in light of the extreme market conditions. 
The Advance/Decline line bounced back sharply this week, as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 15-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 14-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. 
The average number of new 52-week highs was close zero on both exchanges, edging lower to 1 on the NYSE and 3 on the Nasdaq. 
The number of new lows collapsed in the meantime, falling to 130 on the NYSE and 125 on the Nasdaq. 
The percentage of stocks above the 200-day moving average increased somewhat thanks to the strong rally, but the measure remains near its multi-year low, finishing the week at 9%.

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