Another telling statistics on Market Timing: Missing the chance to run with the bulls

Great Timing versus Lousy Timing
(Performance difference = 1.6% difference)

Investment returns from 1970 to 1995

Starting in 1970, if you were unlucky and invested $2,000 at the peak day of the market in each successive year, your annual return was 8.5%.

If you timed the market perfectly and invested your $2,000 at the low point in the market in each successive year, your annual return was 10.1%. 

So the difference between great timing and lousy timing is 1.6%.

Of course, you'd like to be lucky and make that extra 1.1%, but you'll do just fine with lousy timing, as long as you stay invested in stocks.  Buy shaes in good companies and hold on to them through thick and thin. 

There's an easy solution to the problem of bear markets.  Set up a schedule of buying stocks or stock mutual funds so you're putting in a small amount of money every month, or four months, or six months.  This will remove you from the drama of the bulls and bears.


Missing the chance to run with the bulls

One of the worst mistakes you can make is to switch into and out of stocks or stock mutual funds, hoping to avoid the upcoming correction.  It's also a mistake to sit on your cash and wait for the upcoming correction before you invest in stocks.  In trying to time the market to sidestep the bears, people often miss out on the chance to run with the bulls.

A review of the S&P 500 going back to 1954 shows how expensive it is to be out of stocks during the short stretches when they make their biggest jumps. 

• If you kept all your money in stocks throughout these four decades, your annual return on investment was 11.5%. 
• Yet if you were out of stocks for the fourty most profitable months during these fourty years, your return on investment dropped to 2.7%..

The real story is in the numbers - get the necessary training to read them

Four times a year, you'll get the report card that tells you

• how the company is doing,
• how its sales are going, and
• how much money it has made or lost in the lastest period. 

Once a year, the company sends out the annual report that sums up the year in great detail.  Most of these annual reports are printed on fancy paper with several pages of photographs.  It's easy to mistake them for an upscale magazine.

In the front, there's a personal message from the head of the company, recounting the year's events, but the real story is in the numbers. 

• These run for several pages, and unless you are trained to read them, they will surely strike you as both confusing and dull. 
• You can get the necessary training from a good accounting course. 
• Once you do, these dull numbers can become very exciting, indeed. 
• What could be more exciting than learning to decipher a code that could make you a prosperous investor for life?

Companies that intentionally mislead their shareholders (this rarely happens) face severe penalties, and the perpetrators can be fined or sent to jail.  Even if it is unintentional (a more common occurrence), a company that misleads shareholders is punished in the stock market. 

• As soon as they realize it hasn't told them the whole truth, many big-time investors will sell their shares at once. 
• This mass selling causes the stock price to drop. 
• It's not unusual for share prices to fall by half (50%) in a single day after the news of the scandal gets out.

When a stock loses half its value overnight, that disturbs all the investors, including the corporate insiders, from the chief executive on down, who are likely to own large numbers of shares.  That's why it is in their best interest to make sure the company sticks to the facts and doesn't exaggerate. 

• They know the truth will come out sooner or doesn't exaggerate. 
• They know the truth will come out sooner or later, because companies are watched by hundred, if not thousands of shareholders. 
• A company can't brag about its record-breaking earnings if the earnings aren't there - too many investors are paying close attention.

The ultimate "NO" vote

Ultimately, the company exists for the shareholders.  The directors are there to represent the shareholders' interests.  These directors are not employees of the company.  They make strategic decisions, and they keep tabs on what the managements are doing.

Any time you decide you don't like the management, its policies, or the direction the company is headed, you are always free to exercise the ultimate "no" vote and sell your shares.

You have to Know the Story: Confusing the price with the story is the biggest mistake an investor can make.

If you're going to invest in a stock, you have to know the story.  This is where investors get themselves in trouble.  They buy a stock without knowing the story, and they track the stock price, because that's the only detail they understand.  When the price goes up, they think the company is in great shape, but when the price stalls or goes down they get bored or they lose faith, so they sell their shares.

Confusing the price with the story is the biggest mistake an investor can make. 

• It causes people to bail out of stocks during crashes and corrections, when the prices are at their lowest, which they think means that the companies they own must be in lousy shape. 
• It causes them to miss the chance to buy more shares when the price is low, but the company is still in terrific shape.

The story tells you what's happening inside the company to produce profits in the future - or losses, if it's a tale of woe. 

• It's not always easy to figure this out. 
• Some stories are more complicated than others. 
• Companies that have many different divisions are harder to follow than companies that make a single product. 
• And even when the story is simple, it may not be conclusive.

But there are occasions when the picture is clear and the average investor is in a perfect position to see how exciting it is.  These are the times when understanding a company can really pay off.

Stock Picking Strategies - Value Investor

Stock Picking Strategies | Value Investor

As long as the stock market exists, there must always be the bullish and the bearish trends in the market place. These are the two components that make up the stock market. What this implies is that for every single day that the stock market opens, there are people making money, and there are people who are equally loosing money at the same time depending on the direction of the market. As a discerning investor, you need to arm yourself with the strategies that are geared towards securing your investments and also ensuring that you profit from the market daily, regardless of the period on the floor, whether bull or bear. So in order to achieve this, your stock picking strategies and principles has an important role to play here.

The first principle a wise investor should adopt for success, is to go for value investing. This is one of the best known stock picking strategies.

How do you go about this? Simply look for the stocks that are selling at a bargain price, but have strong fundamentals, which include the company's earnings, dividends, cash flow, and book value. These are companies that are undervalued by the market, but are sure to soar immediately the market corrects itself, which is certain that it will do. It is important to note here that not all prices that are down that are cheap.

So a value investor will know how to do his due diligence before arriving at the conclusion that a particular stock is cheap or not. Price does not always determine whether a stock is cheap or not, the determinant factor is the fundamentals. E.g., if a company's share price suddenly drops from $20 to $5, it does not mean that the price is cheap at that $5, rather, a value investor will first of all find out why the price nose-dived.

• Is it as a result of over-pricing which the market is now correcting?
• Or is it as a result of some fundamental problems?
• Or just because of profit taking and other market forces which does not affect the company's fundamentals?

These are the questions that a value investor must find answers to before investing his cash. The value investor knows that profits are made not just by trading of shares; rather, profits are made in stocks by investing in quality companies with strong fundamentals.

If you really want to make money in stocks, you have to sit down first, and ask yourself the type of investor you want to be. Ask yourself whether you are just trading in shares or whether you are investing for value. Don't follow the herd. Do your due diligence before investing. The internet has made things so easy today that you will get any information you need at your finger-tips. When you do this and remove greed, you will definitely make it big investing in stocks. Know when to exit and do so immediately, as waiting a minute or a day longer can wipe out a big fraction from your investment profits which are not a good idea at all.

by jsieiw
http://www.linkroll.com/Day-Trading-Finance--311038-Stock-Picking-Strategies-Value-Investor.html

Three Faces of Market Danger

Three Faces of Market Danger

By PAUL J. LIM
Published: January 23, 2010

AFTER one of the most volatile periods for stocks in decades, it’s only natural for investors to wonder how risky the markets will be in 2010.


Weekend Business: Paul Lim on stock market risks.Unfortunately, that is impossible to predict with any certainty. But investors can at least look for the types of risks the market seems most likely to face. Those perceived dangers have shifted in recent years. In 2008, for example, there was the all-too-real risk of losing big money in the global credit crisis. Last year, after the crisis seemed to subside, investors who stayed on the sidelines risked missing out on the market’s huge rebound.

Today, strategists say, investors face risks in three major categories:

EARNINGS RISK As the economy started to heal last year, investor expectations for corporate profits started to grow. That helped to drive up equity prices by 65 percent from March 9 to Dec. 31.

But after a rally of that magnitude, “people will start to get nervous about the ability of companies to actually meet those expectations,” said Ben Inker, director of asset allocation at GMO, an asset management firm in Boston. That is partly because corporate profit forecasts have grown so lofty.

Wall Street analysts estimate that earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index were up 193 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, versus the period a year earlier, according to a survey by Thomson Financial. Moreover, they expect earnings for all of 2010 to be up more than 28 percent from 2009.

“While we are seeing profit improvement, we think the numbers that are getting baked in are excessive,” Mr. Inker said.

Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, an investment consulting firm in Chicago, points out that “it’s hard to have a stable improvement of corporate profits in an environment where companies are deleveraging.”

It’s also difficult to see profits soaring, he said, while the employment outlook is so weak. Not only does a struggling job market threaten consumer spending, it also exacerbates continuing problems in the financial system. “If people don’t have jobs, they cannot pay off their debts,” Mr. Gambera said.

VALUATION RISK When the market began to rally in March, stocks were roundly considered cheap. Back then, the price-to-earnings ratio for equities was a mere 13.3, based on 10-year averaged earnings, as calculated by Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economist.

But thanks to the recent surge in stock prices, the market P/E has jumped to a much frothier 20.8, versus the historical average of around 16.

“Current market valuations are high enough that they’re more or less suggesting everything is going to be fine this year,” said Robert D. Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment management firm in Newport Beach, Calif. But if everything isn’t — if the economy hits a speed bump, for instance, or if corporate profits come in lower than expected — investors may start to question the prices they are paying for risky assets, he said.

This is why James W. Paulsen, who works in Minneapolis as chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, says that this year, unlike 2008 and 2009, “it will be important for people to go back to assessing valuations again.”

POLICY RISK Government economic policies are having a huge impact, but they can be tricky to predict. For instance, investors who were banking on imminent health care reform may need to rethink their strategy after the special Senate election last week in Massachusetts.

Health care is only one area that is up for grabs. This year, for example, the government and the Federal Reserve Board will face a big decision on whether to curtail the huge stimulus that has helped prop up the economy.

Mr. Arnott says he believes the Fed will be forced to raise short-term interest rates this year, possibly even before the recovery gains full traction.

The danger is that the markets may react badly to the end of the Fed’s unusually loose monetary policy.

“It’s not like the economy is out of the woods,” said Duncan W. Richardson, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance, an asset manager in Boston. “The patient is still in the hospital.”

INVESTORS must also keep in mind that the tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush — which lowered the maximum rate on long-term capital gains taxes to 15 percent from 20 percent and the top dividend tax rate to 15 percent from 39.6 percent — are due to expire at year-end.

While it is unclear whether the Obama administration will extend those cuts, or at least extend them for the middle class, the uncertainty is bound to raise concerns on Wall Street.

Because of the “potentially big risks that may come out of Washington,” Mr. Richardson said, “investors need to be more diversified than ever.”

Paul J. Lim is a senior editor at Money magazine. E-mail: fund@nytimes.com.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/24/business/24fund.html

Every person who owns shares in a company wants it to grow

Every person who owns shares in a company wants it to grow

When investors talk about "growth", they're not talking about size.  They're talking about profitability, that is, earnings.

It means the profits are growing.  The company will earn more money this year than last year, just as it earned more money last year than the year before that.

• A company doubling its earnings in 12 months can cause a wild celebration on Wall Street, because it's very rare for a business to grow that fast.
• Big, established companies are happy to see their earnings increase by 10 to 15% a year, and
• younger, more energetic companies may be able to increase theirs by 25 to 30%. 

One way or the other, the name of the game is earnings.  That's what the shareholders are looking for, and that's what makes the stocks go up.

People who buy shares are counting on the companies to increase their earnings, and they expect that a portion of these earnings will get back to them in the form of higher stock prices.

This simple point - that the price of s stock is directly related to a company's earning power - is often overlooked, even by sophisticated investors. 

The earnings continue to rise, the stock price is destined to go up.  Maybe it won't go up right away, but eventually it will rise.

And if the earnings go down, it's pretty safe bet the price of the stock will go down.  Lower earnings make a company less valuable.

This is the starting point for the successful stockpicker.  Find companies that can grow their earnings over many years to come. 

It is not an accident that stocks in general rise in price on average of about 8% a year over the long term.  That occurs because companies in general increase their earnings at 8% a year, on average, plus they pay 3% as a dividend.

Based on these assumptions, the odds are in your favour when you invest in a representative sample of companies.  Some will do better than others, but in general, they'll increase earnings by 8% and pay you a dividend of 3%, and you'll arrive at your 11% annual gain.


Stock Price Watchers

The ticker-tape watchers begin to think stock prices have a life of their own.

• They track the ups and downs, the way a bird watcher might track a fluttering duck.
• They study the trading patterns, making charts of every zig and zag.
• They try to fathom what the "market" is doing, when they ought to be following the earnings of the companies whose stocks they own.

"Expensive Shares"

By itself, the price of a stock doesn't tell you a thing about whether you're getting a good deal.


You'll hear people say: "I am avoiding IBM, because at $100 a share it's too expensive." 

• It maybe that they don't have $100 to spend on a share of IBM, but the fact, that a share costs $100 has nothing to do with whether IBM is expensive. 
• A $150,000 Lamborghini is out of most people's price range, but for a Lamborghini, it still might not be expensive. 

Likewise, a $100 share of IBM may be a bargain, or it may not be.  It depends on IBM earnings.

• If IBM is earning $10 a share this year, then you're paying 10 times earnings when you buy a share for $100.  That's a P/E ratio of 10, which in today's market is cheap. 
• On the other hand, if IBM only earns $1 a share, then you're paying 100 times earnings when you buy that $100 share.  That's a P/E ratio of 100, which is way too much to pay for IBM.

Capitalism is not a zero-sum game

Except for a few crooks, the rich do not get that way by making other people poor.

When the rich get richer, the poor get richer as well. 

If it were really true that the rich get richer at the expense of the poor, then since the US is the richest country in the world, by now, they would have created the most desperate class of poor people on earth.  Instead, they have done jsut the opposite.

There is substantial poverty in America, but it doesn't come close to matching the poverty seen in parts of India, Latin America, Afria, Asia, or Eastern Europe where capitalism is just beginning to take hold. 

When companies succeed and become more profitable, it means more jobs and less poverty.

Companies are in business for one basic reason. They want to make a profit.

Profitable companies with good management are rewarded in the stock market, because when a company does well, the stock price goes up.  This makes investors happy, including the managers and employees who own shares.

In a poorly managed company, the results are mediocre, and the stock price goes down, so bad management is punished.  A decline in the stock price makes investors angry, and if they get angry enough, they can pressure the company to get rid of the bad managers and take other actions to restore the company's profitability.

A highly profitable company can attract more investment capital than a less profitable company.  With the extra money it gets, the highly profitable company is nourished and made stronger, and it has the resources to expand and grow.

The less profitable company has trouble attracting capital, and it may wither and die for lack of financial nourishment.

The fittest survive and the weakest go out of business, so no more money is wasted on them.  With the weakest out of the way, the money flows to those who can make better use of it.

All employees everywhere ought to be rooting for profit, because if the company they work for doesn't make one, they'll soon be out of a job.  Profit is a sign of achievement.  It means somebody has produced something of value that other people are willing to buy.  The people who make the profit are motivated to repeat their success on a grander scale, which means more jobs and more profits for others.

That a company earns a lot of money doesn't necessarily mean the stockholders will benefit.

That a company earns a lot of money doesn't necessarily mean the stockholders will benefit.  The next big question is:

• What does the company plan to do with this money? 

Basically, it has 4 choices.

1.  It can plow the money back into the business, in effect investing in itself.

• It uses this money to open more stores or build new factories and grow its earnings even faster than before. 
• In the long run, this is highly beneficial to the stockholders. 
• A fast growing company can take every dollar and make a 20% return on it. 
• That's far more than you and I could get by putting that dollar in the bank.

2.  Or it can waste the money.

• It can waste on corporate jets, teak-paneled offices, marble in the executive bathrooms, executive salaries that are double the going rate, or buying other companies and paying too much for them. 
• Such unnecessary purchases are bad for stockholders and can ruin what otherwise would be a very good investment.

3.  Or a company can buy back its own shares and take them off the market. 

• Why would any company want to do such a thing? 
• Because with fewer shares on the market, the remaining shares become more valuable. 
• Share buybacks can be very good for the stockholders, especially if the company is buying its own shares at a cheap price.

4.  Finally, the company can pay dividend. 

• A majority of companies do this. 
• Dividends are not entirely a positive thing - a company that pays one is giving up the chance to invest that money in itself. 
• Nevertheless, dividends are very beneficial to shareholders.

A dividend is a company's way of paying you to own the stock.  The money gets sent to you directly on a regular basis - it's the only one of the above 4 options in which the company's profits go directly into your pocket. 

• If you need income while you're holding on to the stock, the dividend does the trick. 
• Or you can use the dividend to buy more shares.

Dividend also have a psychological benefit. 

• In a bear market or a correction, no matter what happens to the price of the stock, you're still collecting the dividend. 
• This gives you an extra reason not to sell in a panic.

Millions of investors buy dividend-paying stocks and nothing else. 

• Compile a list of companies that have raised their dividends for many years in a row. 
• In Wall Stree, one company has been doing it for 50 years, and more than 300 have been doing it for 10. 

Market Multiple or "What the market is selling for".

The P/E ratio is a complicated subject that merits further study, if you are serious about picking your own stocks. 

Here are some pointers about P/Es.

If you take a large group of companies, add their stock prices together, and divide by their earnings, you get an average P/E ratio. 

On Wall Street, they do this with the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 stocks and other such indexes.  The result is known as the "market multiple" or "what the market is selling for."

• The market multiple is a useful thing to be aware of, because it tells you how much investors are willing to pay for earnings at any given time. 
• The market multiple goes up and down, but it tends to stay within the boundaries of 10 and 20. 
• The stock market in mid-1995 had an average P.E ratio of about 16, which meant that stocks in general weren't cheap, but they weren't outrageously expensive, either.

In general, the faster a company can grow its earnings, the more investors will pay for those earnings. 

• That's why aggressive young companies have P/.E ratios of 20 or higher.  People are expecting great things from these companies and are willing to pay a higher price to own the shares. 
• Older, established companies have P/E ratios in the mid to low teens.  Their stocks are cheaper relative to earnings, because established companies are expected to plod along and not do anything spectacular.

Some companies steadily increase their earnigns - they are the growth companies. 

Others are erratic earners, the rags-to-riches types.  They are the cyclicals -

• the autos, the steels, the heavy industries that do well only in certain economic climates. 
• Their P/E ratios are lower than the P/.Es of steady growers, because their perfomance is erratic. 
• What they will earn from one year to the next depends on the condition of the economy, which is a hard thing to predict.

Reading the Stock Pages

One way to tell who the investors are is by watching them read the paper.  Investors don't start with the comics, or sports, the way other readers do.  They head straight for the business section, and run their finger down the columns of stocks searching for yesterday's closing prices on the companies they own.

The price of the last trade, called the closing price, gets quoted in the papers the next morning.

A lot of information is packed into a single line. 

365-Day High-Low 
62 - 37

Stock
Disney

Div
0.36

Yld %
0.625

P/E
23

Sales
11090

High
57

Low
56

Last
57

Chg
+1

So, in the last 12 months, there's a wide range of prices that people will pay for the same stock

• In fact, the average stock on the NYSE moves up and down approximately 57 % from its base price in any given year. 
• More incredibe than that, one in every three stocks traded on the NYSE moves up and down 50 to 100 % from the base each year, and about 8% of the stocks rise and fall 100% or more.

A stock might start out the year selling for $12, rise to $16 during an optimistic stretch, and fall to $8 during a pessimistic stretch. 

• That's a 100% move:  from $16 to $8. 
• Clearly , some investors pay a lot less than others for the same company in the same year.

In the 4 columns:"High," "Low," "Last," and "Chg"(Change), you get a recap of what happened in yesterday's trading. 

• In this case, nothing much. 
• The highest price anybody paid for Disney during this particular session was $57, and the lowest was $56, and the last sale of the day was made at $57. 
• That was the closing price that everybody was looking for in the newspaper. 
• It was up $1 from the closing price of the day before, which is why +$1 appears in the "Chg" column.

"Div" stands for dividend.  Dividends are a company's way of rewarding the people who buy their stock.  Some companies

• pay big dividends,
• some pay small dividends, and
• some pay no dividend at all. 

The number shown 0.36 means "thirty-six cents."  That's Disney's current annual dividend - you get 36 cents for each share you own.

"Yld% (Yield), gives you more information about the diividend, so you can compare it, say to the yield from a savings account or bond.  Yield = curren dividend divided by the closing stock price. 

• The result is 0.625 % - the return you're getting on your money if you invest in Disney at the current price.
• This 0.625% is a very low return, as compared to the 3% that savings accounts are paying these days. 
• Disney is not a stock you'd buy just for the dividend.

P/E is the abbreviation for "price-earnings ratio."  You get the P/E ratio by dividing the price of a stock by the company's annual earnings.  The P/E can be found in the paper every day.

• When people are considering whether to buy a particular company, the P/E helps them figure out if the stock is cheap or expensive. 
• P/E ratios vary from industry to industry, and to some extent from company to company, so the simplest way to use this tool is to compare a company's current P/E ratio to the historical norm.

In today's market, the P/E of the average stock is about 16, and Disney's P/E of 23 makes it a bit expensive relative to the average stock. 

• But since Disney's P/E ratio has moved from 12 to 40 over the past 15 years, a P/E of 23 for Disney is not out of line, historically. 
• It is more expensive than the average stock because the company as been a terrific performer.

Finally,l there's "Sales":  (Volume) the number of shares that were bought and sold in yesterday's session at the stock exchange. 

• You always multiply this number by 100, so the 11,000 tells us that 1.1 million shares of Disney changed hands. 
• It's not crucial to know this, but it makes you realize that the stock market is a very busy place.

Thanks to home computers, electronic tickertape and other technologies, people no longer have to wait for tomorrow's newspaper to check their stocks.  All this technology has a drawback:  It can get you too worked up about the daily gyrations.

• Letting your emotions go up and down in sympathy with stocks can be very exhausting form of exercise, and it doesn't do you any good. 
• Whether Disney rises, falls, or goes sideways today, tomorrow, or next month isn't worth worrying about if you are a long-term investor.

Stock-picking: There are hundred of different ways to skin a cat.

No investor can possibly hope to keep up with the more than 13,000 companies whose stocks are traded on the major exchanges in the US markets today.  That's why amateurs and pros alike are forced to cut down on their options by specializing in one kind of company or another. 

• For instance, some investors buy stocks only in companies that have a habit of raising their dividends. 
• Others look for companies whose earnings are growing by at least 20% a year.
• You can specialise in a certain industry, such as electric utilities, or restaurants or banks. 
• You can specialize in small companies or large companies, new companies or old ones. 
• You can specialise in companies that have fallen on hard times and are trying to make a comeback.  (These are called "turnarounds.")

Looking at the investment world by studying the numbers. (2)

Studying the numbers

That a company makes a popular product doesn't mean you should automatically buy the stock.  There's a lot more you have to know before you invest. 

• You have to know if the company is spending its cash wisely or frittering it away. 
• You have to know how much it owes to the bank. 
• You have to know if the sales are growing, and how fast. 
• You have to know how much money it earned in past years, and how much it can expect to earn in the future. 
• You have to know if the stock is selling at a fair price, a bargain price, or too high a price.

You have to know if the company is paying a dividend, and if so,

• how much of a dividend, and
• how often it is raised.  

Earnings, sales, debt, dividends, the price of the stock:  These are some of the key numbers stockpickers must follow.

People go to graduate school to learn how to read and interpret these numbers, so this is not a subject that can be covered easily in depth for others.  The best is to give a glimpse at the basic elements of a company's finances, so you can begin to see how the numbers fit together.

Investing is not an exact science, and no matter how hard you study the numbers and how much you learn about a company's past performance, you can never be sure about its future performance.  What will happen tomorrow is always a guess. 

• Your job as an investor is to make educated guesses and not blind ones. 
• Your job is to pick stocks and not pay too much for them, then to keep watching for good news or bad news coming out of the companies you won. 
• You can use your knowledge to keep the risks to a minimum.

Looking at the investment world through a stockpicker's eyes (1)

Keep your eyes opened

You can begin to gather information every time you walk into a McDonald's, a Sunglass Hut International, or any other store that's owned by a publicly traded company.  And if you work in the store, so much the better.

You can see for yourself whether the operation is efficient or sloppy, overstaffed or understaffed, well-organized or chaotic.  You can gauge the morale of your fellow employees.  You get a sense of whether management is reckless or careful with money.

If you're out front with the customers, you can size up the crowd. 

• Are they lining up at the cash register, or does the place look empty? 
• Are they happy with the merchandise, or do they complain a lot? 

These little details can tell you a great deal about the quality of the parent company itself. 

• Have you ever seen a messy Gap or an empty McDonald's? 

The employees at any of the Gap outlets or the McDonald's franchises could have noticed long ago how fantastically successful these operations have been and invested their spare cash accordingly.

A store doesn't have to fall apart to lose customers.  It will lose customers when another store comes along that offers better merchandise and better service, for the same prices or lower prices.  Employees are among the first to know when a competitor is luring the clients away.  There's nothing to stop them from investing in the competitors. 

Even if you don't have a job in a publicly traded company, you can see what's going on from the customer angle. 

• Every time you shop in a store, eat a hamburger, or buy new sunglasses, you're getting valuable input. 
• By browsing around, you can see what's selling and what isn't. 
• By watching your friends, you know which computers they're buying, which brand of soda they're drinking, which movies they're watching, whether Reeboks are in or out. 

These are all important clues that can lead you to the right stocks.

You'd be surprised how many adults fail to follow up on such clues.  Millions of people work in industries where they come in daily contact with potential investments and never take advantage of their front-row seat. 

• Doctors know which drug companies make the best drugs, but they don't always buy the drug stocks. 
• Bankiers know which banks are the strongest and have the lowest expenses and make the smartest loans, but they don't necessarily buy the bank stocks. 
• Store manangers and the people who run malls have access to the monthly sales figures, so they know for sure which retailers are selling the most merchandise.  But how many mall managers have enriched themselves by investing in specialty retail stocks.

Once you start looking at the world through a stockpicker's eyes, where everything is a potential investment, you begin to notice the companies that do business with the companies that got your attention in the first place.

• If you work in a hospital, you come into contact with companies that make sutures, surgical gowns, sysringes, beds and bed pans, X-ray equipment, EKG machines; companies that help the hospital keep its costs down; companies that write the health insurance; companies that handle the billing. 
• The grocery store is another hotbed of companies; dozens of them are represented in each aisle.

You also begin to notice when a competitor is doing a better job than the company that hired you. 

• When people were lining up to buy Chrysler minivans, it wasn't just the Chrysler salesmen who realized Chrysler was on its way to making record profits. 
• It was also the Buick salesmen down the block, who sat around their empty showroom and realized that a lot of Buick customers must have switched to Chrysler.

B B C factors responsible for recent market volatilities

3 issues dominate the recent volatilities in the stock markets.

 

1. Banking regulations in US
2. Bernacke reappointment issues
3. China property asset "bubble"

Doing your own research - the highest form of stock-picking

This is the highest form of stock-picking. 

You choose the stock because you like the company, and you like the company because you've studied it inside and out.

The more you learn about investing in companies, the less you have to rely on other people's opinions, and the better you can evaluate other people's tips.  You can decide for yourself what stocks to buy and when to buy them.

You'll need 2 kinds of information:

1. the kind you get by keeping your eyes peeled, and,
2. the kind you get by studying the numbers.

The first kind, you can begin to gather every time you walk into a McDonald's, a Sunglass Hut International, or any other store that's owned by a publicly traded company.  And if you work in the store, so much the better.

You can see for yourself whether the operation is efficeint or sloppy, overstaffed or understaffed, well-organized, or chaotic.  You can gauge the morale of your fellow employees.  You get a sense of whether management is reckless or careful with money.

Finding good quality successful companies

Stocks that do well in the long run belong to companies that do well in the long run.  The key to successful investing is finding successful companies. 

To get the most out of your investing, you have to do more than follow the prices of the stocks.  You have to learn as much as possible about the companies you've chosen and what makes them tick.

Here are the 5 basic methods people use to pick a stock (beginning with the most ridiculous and ending with the most enlightened).

1.  Darts (chosen randomly)
2.  Hot tips (from Uncle Harry)
3.  Educated tips (TV, newspapers, magazines)
4.  The broker's buy list
5.  Doing your own research.

How Do I Successfully Research Stocks For Myself?

This young investor wishes to invest in the stock market and he asked for some advice.  The myriad of responses to his request are interesting readings.


http://bartski.tv/how-do-i-successfully-research-stocks-for-myself/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-do-i-successfully-research-stocks-for-myself

How Do I Successfully Research Stocks For Myself?
by Bart Ski on January 23, 2010 · 11 comments

in Business Q & A

I wish to start testing the stock market waters because I know being a young investor can be beneficial.
At this point, I’m only slightly familiar with ‘volume’, the three types of stocks (penny, growth, blue chip), and the two general methods of making money (dividends and stock prices rising).
But everything else — especially detailed researching is extremely foreign to me. I’m tempted to just take internet advice, but I know that is not the most secure way to decide where to place my money.
Yet besides reading opinion articles, I don’t know which pieces of information about the company to search for, and furthermore, I have no idea about how to put these pieces of information together to form a comprehensive opinion about a stock.
Any tips about researching stocks — especially how company history etc– plays into the mix are welcome.

Thank you all in advance!


{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Mavestyn M January 23, 2010 at 8:29 am
I hate to bring you the bad news but, it is very hard to SUCCESSFULLY research stocks by yourself. Unless you have a degree in finance; like I do. The best thing you can do is to invest your money in a DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO. Don’t try to buy one stock because you’ve heard some news of it and it seemed interesting, or if the stock was recently upgraded by big name investment banking firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, or Bear Sterns.
The fact of the matter is that it is VERY RISKY to do that. You can lose a lot of money that way. It’s too risky and not worth it. Imagine how you would feel if you invested $5000 in a stock and then it drops down to $2500 in a week.
Best thing to do is to build a portfolio of stocks (using several industries) which are diversified and carry a very low risk. There should be at least 14 stocks in your portfolio. Ideally, there should be 30, but not many people can have enough money to buy 30 different stocks.
However, if you really want to learn how to research stocks, then I suggest studying applied equity valuation methods such as the EP or the DCF models.

2 Kriss71 January 23, 2010 at 9:45 am
Learn technical analysis. Then you’ll be able to identify the general trends in prices, you need to be able to understand the charts before you start investing. News is just a marketing tool. The price does not lie.
Check out this ugly guy’s blog to get an idea of what i’m talking about. http://blog.fallondpicks.com/

3 L H January 23, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Read, Read, Read. and listen to others. Yahoo finance actually has alot of great articles. Most articles will have to links to companies, from there you can check out their financials which start out greek, but make sense after awhile. You can set up practice portfolios on yahoo and tract stock performance to see if you have what it takes, and it is better than learing the hard way.
In every industry there are winners, so find something you like, and focus on that area. You will probably know more about that industry, and have a better Idea of where the next moves will be.

4 Fallond January 23, 2010 at 2:41 pm
“Ugly” Eh???

Thanks for the reference link – I also have a site which features stocks with listed stop, target prices and annotated charts.
http://fallondpicks.com/Members/Breakout.htm
Best wishes,
DJF

5 muncie birder January 23, 2010 at 9:13 pm
There are a lot of books that will tell you about investing. You might start at your library or go out to Amazon and check out what they have. If you open an account with Fidelity, they have a lot of research material on companies. A great deal more than TD Ameritrade for example.
There is the option of investing in mutual funds. That way you do not need to do so much research. You just have to determine which mutual funds are good and the universe is much smaller. You can buy mutual funds directly from the fund company or many through a stock broker such as Fidelity or TD Ameritrade. Some you can even buy like stocks.
But first things first. Get a couple of books and begin reading on investing in stocks. There is even a “Investing for Dummies” book and it is highly thought of.

6 A K January 24, 2010 at 1:27 am
new york times

7 The Guru® January 24, 2010 at 6:06 am
First gather some general idea as to what is happening in the markets, the macro economic situation and all other related business info, for all that you must read a good business paper.
Next would be learn more abt what kind of companies and sectors you want to invest in. You can do that by reading the Co’s financial annual reports, its filings with the SEC, etc , then understand the trend of the share, its price, volume and related info.
More imp keep your eyes and ears open, remember in the stock markets, Information is wealth.

8 composer January 24, 2010 at 12:47 pm
Since you are young you don’t need a get rich quick thing, so look for the Blue Chip stocks- big companies that have been around a long time and will be around when you’re old. Dividends are a good thing. There are stock funds that invest in a wide range of companies which minimize your chance of losing money. Then you don’t have to watch your stocks everyday- just sit back knowing that, barring a depression, history is on your side.

9 msbluebe January 24, 2010 at 6:31 pm
There are stock investment clubs which are very good in your local community who study stocks. Also the NAIC has a great magazine and non profit organization that teaches people how to invest. Good luck.

10 wiley22 January 25, 2010 at 12:36 am
go to Yahoo! Finance-lots of great stuff there…

11 kath6814 January 25, 2010 at 6:45 am
I personally use Sharebuilder. Quite a lot of information on that site.
Good luck!

A few triples in your lifetime will overwhelm all the losers you pick along the way

If you own 10 stocks, and 3 of them are big winners, they will more than make up for the 1 or 2 losers and the 6 or 7 stocks that have done just OK.

 

If you can mange to find a few triples in your lifetime - stocks that have increased threefold over what you paid for them - you'll never lack for spending money, no matter how many losers you pick along the way.

 

And once you get the hang of how to follow a company's progress, you can put more money into the successful companies and reduce your stake in the flops.

 

You may not triple your money in a stock very often, but you only need a few triples in a lifetime to build up a sizeable fortune.

 

Here's the math:

 

If you start out with $10,000 and

 

• manage to triple it 5 times, you've got $2.4 million, and
• if you triple it 10 times, you've got $500 million, and
• 13 times, you're the richest person in America.