Thursday, 25 February 2010

Stock Valuation Model – 3 Simple Techniques to Value Stock

Stock valuation models are methods to value stocks. Everybody knows the stock price but only few understand how much it worth and the other investors do not even care. The reason can be due to different strategies, do not know how to value stock or just do not care how much it worth as long as the price increase the next day. If you are one of the intelligent investors, consider these valuation models in your next purchase.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
This is probably the most common model that you ever heard when it comes to stock valuation. However, I found it a bit tough to do it. Simply because the discounted cash flow model have to consider revenue growth and the escalated cost at the same time, which can be too difficult to estimate and forecast as an outside investor.

Nevertheless, you can use this method in valuing stock by projecting future cash flow; from the sales and costs, and discount back to current value with Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

Dividend Discount Model (DD)
This model suits best for income investors. The idea is to project future dividend distribution based on the average historical dividend payout ratio and discount it back to present value. Although this is the simplest among all, it works best for high dividend yield stocks.

Nonetheless, the stocks must have very strong business performances that can guarantee the dividend payments 10 years down the road. And normally, penny stocks cannot be evaluated this way.

Earnings Growth Model (EG)
This is my favourite method as it is very practical and easy to do. Initially, I project its future earnings using constant or variable growth rate. Either constant or variable growth rate is depends on the expectation of its business performance within that period. Often than not, I normally use the historical business performance as a baseline provided its fundamental value remain intact. Then, I discount the future earnings with the expected return on investment (ROI).

I found this model as highly valuable since the stock price is easily reflected by its earnings. For example, the stock price will reflect its earnings and earnings growth. Assuming the P/E is the same throughout the year, you can expect the stock price to increase the same rate as the company’s growth rate.

So, before buying anymore shares in the future, put some efforts to value the stock. You can reduce the risk of losing money significantly if you buy the stock at much cheaper price than its intrinsic value.

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