myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Boustead 3Q net profit down 48% y-o-y

Boustead 3Q net profit down 48% y-o-y
Written by Chong Jin Hun
Monday, 23 November 2009 15:57

KUALA LUMPUR: BOUSTEAD HOLDINGS BHD []'s third quarter (3Q) net profit fell 47.5% year-on-year, dragged down by lower income from its PLANTATION [], heavy industries, real estate and hotel operations.

In a statement to the exchange today, Boustead said net profit declined to RM86.16 million in 3Q ended September from RM164 million, while revenue dropped 27.2% to RM1.42 billion from RM1.95 billion.

Cumulative nine-month net profit dipped 58.6% to RM193.92 million from RM468.2 million while revenue was down 32.6% to RM3.91 billion from RM5.8 billion.

"We are cautiously optimistic that the steady price range of RM2,200 to RM2,400 for crude palm oil (CPO) could sustain until the end of the year on the back of steady overseas demand as world economies recover. A factor that bodes well for the CPO price would be the potential further weakness of the US dollar," Boustead said.

On its heavy industries unit, the company said it would continue developing its defence and commercial businesses, and pursue strategic partnerships with foreign parties to promote the TECHNOLOGY [] transfer.

Meanwhile, Boustead's property division's earnings are expected to be driven by current developments at its Mutiara Damansara and Mutiara Rini townships, besides the company's commercial and retail PROPERTIES [].

The expansion of its hotel operations which now include the five-star Royale Chulan Hotel and Royale Bintang Seremban are anticipated to further boost revenue for the conglomerate's hospitality arm.

Boustead intends to reward its shareholders with a third interim dividend of 7.5 sen per share less 25% income tax.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/154259-boustead-3q-net-profit-down-48-y-o-y.html

Boustead’s 3Q profit down 47% y-o-y
Tags: Affin Group | Boustead | Lodin Wok Kamaruddin

Written by Isabelle Francis
Tuesday, 24 November 2009 10:28

KUALA LUMPUR: BOUSTEAD HOLDINGS BHD [] posted a net profit of RM86.2 million in the third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, 2009, down 47% from RM164 million a year earlier but up 84% from the preceding quarter’s earnings of RM63 million.

Revenue dropped 27% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM1.42 billion from RM1.95 billion but was up 11% from the preceding quarter. Basic earnings per share (EPS) fell to 12.41 sen from 25.48 sen a year earlier.

It declared a third interim dividend of 7.5 sen per share less tax, bringing the total to 17.5 sen or 35% per share less tax for the current financial year ending Dec 31, 2009. The latest dividend is payable on Dec 29, 2009.

For the nine-month period, net profit fell 59% to RM193.92 million from RM468.2 million a year earlier, while revenue dipped 33% to RM3.91 billion from RM5.8 billion.

EPS fell to 16.55 sen from 48.36 sen, partly due to the dilutive effect of a rights issue.

“Clearly the tide and sentiments are turning by virtue of the fact that our earnings are up (quarter-on-quarter). The sectors of the economy we are involved in, namely the consumer and the heavy industries segments bode well for the group while our PLANTATION []s continue to be a steady revenue generator and profit contributor.

“Our balance sheet looks strong given our recent rights issue which generated proceeds in excess of RM700 million. Our paid-up capital has increased to RM456 million and our gearing ratio has dropped significantly to 0.8 from 1.2 times. In essence, our financial strength is strong while our prospects look better,” said group managing director Tan Sri Lodin Wok Kamaruddin in a statement yesterday.

Boustead told Bursa Malaysia yesterday its highest profit earner — the heavy industries division — contributed a pre-tax profit of RM113 million for the nine-month period versus RM233.1 million a year earlier due to slower progress of work and cost escalation.

Its second-largest profit contributor, the plantation division, contributed a pre-tax profit of RM50.7 million versus RM260.8 million.

Boustead said the division achieved an average palm oil price of RM2,172 per tonne versus RM3,103 per tonne previously. Fresh fruit bunch harvest totalling 827,850 tonnes was 5% lower than last year.

It said its property division’s pre-tax profit of RM58.9 million for the period was 44% lower than last year’s. Profit from its hotel operation was lower due to the start-up cost of the recently opened Royale Chulan Hotel. It added that the property development segment profit was also lower, due to the absence of corporate lot sales.

Boustead said its finance and investment division reported an improved pre-tax profit of RM29.6 million.

It noted that BH Insurance posted a 62% higher pre-tax profit of RM24.5 million, mainly due to the increase in underwriting and investment income.

Meanwhile, it said the Affin Group posted a better pre-tax profit of RM383.2 million versus RM288.6 million a year earlier, due to improved net interest and Islamic banking income, while loan provisions were also lower.

Boustead said the trading division, meanwhile, posted a lower profit of RM21.5 million. The division gained profits from its petroleum retail unit Boustead Petroleum Marketing Sdn Bhd (BHPetrol), and from the LCCT Baggage Handling system project.

On its outlook,

Boustead said its most lucrative business, the heavy industries division, will continue with its effort in developing its defence and commercial businesses. It will also establish more partnerships.

The company is cautiously optimistic that CPO prices could sustain at the RM2,200 to RM2,400 level till year-end on the back of steady overseas demand as economies around the world recover.

It said a factor that bodes well for the CPO price would be the potential for further weaknesses in the US dollar.

It added that the property division’s earnings would be driven by the ongoing developments at Mutiara Damansara and Mutiara Rini townships and the division’s stable of commercial and retail PROPERTIES [].

The company said that the expansion of the hotel activities, which now include the five-star Royale Chulan Hotel and Royale Bintang Seremban are expected to further increase revenue for the hotel division.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 24, 2009.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Boustead 3Q net profit down 48% y-o-y

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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