Friday, 27 November 2009

Phenomenal surge in Coastal’s profit

Phenomenal surge in Coastal’s profit

Tags: Coastal Contracts | Kenanga Research

Written by The Edge Financial Daily
Wednesday, 25 November 2009 11:29

Maintain buy at RM1.95, target price at RM3.68: Coastal Contracts showed a phenomenal third quarter (3Q09) with another record quarter of RM48 million net profit. Nine-month FY09 revenue of RM315.2 million came in at 75% of our forecast but net profit of RM108.7 million was at 97%. Assuming a constant quarter into the year-end, net performance will most likely be 40% ahead of our forecast principally because of strong vessel delivery and higher margins fetched compared to our forecast which we had warned to be conservative.

Quarter-on-quarter, revenue was up 48% on the back of higher vessels delivered. 3Q saw a total of 11 vessels (nine tugs/barges and two offshore support) delivered compared to a mere four (two tugs/barges and two offshore support). No details were given on vessels delivered, but we suspect them to be the normal 5,000 bhp AHTS with market values of between RM45 million to RM50 million each.

Shipbuilding margins remained robust standing at 33.2% (2Q09: 33.4%). FY09 revenue is raised 9.4% with net profit by 39.1% due to a combination of higher margins and lower effective taxes being modelled in. FY10 revenue is also raised by 10.6% with net profit by 38.7% for the same reasons.

The new target price of RM3.68 is based on eight times FY10F (RM2.66 previously) with our buy call maintained. Farsighted management, strong visibility and a strong record of outperforming their guided numbers are key reasons behind our buy call. Trading at a mere 4.2 times 2010F is unjustified compared to the oil and gas sector which is trending at least in the teens.

The outlook for the company is improving substantially after the recent thawing of the credit crisis. Management is once again guiding very positively on the back of rising enquiries given a relatively more stable economic environment not to mention crude oil prices which are currently averaging at the high US$70s to low US$80s per barrel.

Verbal guidance of RM1.4 billion order book should sustain the group right up to 2011 provided there are no cancellations. Farsighted management which had focused their selling to major asset owners including some of the world’s largest offshore support players should help to mitigate cancellation risks.

Based on preliminary estimates, we suspect that the group could have another RM2 billion worth of inventory that could be offered into the market over the next few years. This is not confirmed by management but they did guide that enquiries have been building up very strongly with further sales likely over the course of the next few months. — Kenanga Research, Nov 24

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 25, 2009.