Monday 1 February 2010

Market timing sounds good in theory. It seldom works consistently in practice.

Market timing is an investment strategy that relies on:
  • your being able to predict the future so that you can protect your capital by not getting caught in any market downswing. 
  • You must also know when the market is going to turn around, so that you can effectively exploit any new upswings.
A market timer must always make two correct decisions:
  • when to withdraw and
  • when to re-enter the market.
A major issue regarding stock market or unit trust investment is the question of whether or not market timing works.  Buying low and selling high is easier said than done.

A fund that applies market timing - buys or sells depending on the direction in which the market is moving -
  • can prevent you from losing money in bear markets, but
  • can also result in your missing out on bull markets.
Research has shown that although market timing sounds good in theory, it seldom works consistently in practice.

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