Tuesday, 16 November 2010

Proposals by Time dotcom signals important milestone to turn around GLCs

Tuesday November 16, 2010


Proposals by Time dotcom signals important milestone to turn around GLCs
Raison D'etre - Risen Jayaseelan


On the face of it, the deal does raise eyebrows. First, it a very big related-party transaction (RPT) and second, why is an individual being given control over an important GLC?
But a closer look indicates that there is not much to fret about. First, the RPT is fully disclosed and all interested parties in the deal, which include Afzal and Khazanah Nasional Bhd, aren’t going to vote on the deal, leaving the decision on whether to accept or reject the proposals entirely in the hands of the minority shareholders.
Second, is the question of whether the assets are being injected at a fair price.
Afzal said UBS Securities Malaysia was particularly picked by TdC’s board to advise on the deal as UBS has had a lot of experience in valuing assets such as data centres and submarine cables.
It is also understood that the replacement cost of the submarine cables is much higher than what TdC is paying for. (To recap, one of the companies TdC is buying owns a 10% interest in the trans-Pacific Unity North Cable system, which is a 9,620km Japan-US cable built together with Google, Bharti, KDDI, SingTel and Pacnet.)
But perhaps, most significant aspect of the deal is this: Afzal did not parachute into this deal from nowhere. He has been given the reins to run TdC since October 2008 and has been doing a pretty decent job at it. TdC used to be known as a company whose revenue and profits were erratic and interspersed with asset disposals and impairment exercises that left investors with little visibility of the future earnings of the company.
But since 2009, TdC has been consistently EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) positive, has had strong operations cashflows and has had five consecutive quarters of revenue and earnings growth. TdC’s EBITDA and operating profit margin have also doubled in the first half of FY2010. Afzal says 2009 was a year of ‘detox and cleansing’, whereby the cash was conserved, processes re-engineered and the quality of their fibre optic networks – the core of their business – were improved.
A closer look at the deal also reveals that Afzal & Co are being paid for their assets largely in shares in TdC. The cash that TdC is paying out goes mainly to other shareholders of the assets, namely three private equity funds, which had pumped in the initial capital needed to part finance the construction of the submarine cable. This clearly indicates that Afzal and his team are in for the long run at TdC.
Minority shareholders, therefore, should consider these facts when it’s time to vote on this deal.
If this model works out – if Afzal and team do bring value to TdC – then it does set a good precedent for Khazanah and other government agencies on how to deal with valuable assets in their hands which are not reaching their full potential.
To be sure, it does seem that this is the model that Khazanah is also trying to follow for POS Malaysia Bhd. Alas, in that case, it does seem to be taking longer than expected. While bids have been submitted by various parties on their plans to take POS to the next level, little has been heard of the deal since. It is rumoured that one stumbling block remains to be the unwillingness of the Government to give up its powerful golden share. Hopefully, that problem will be sorted out over time.
·Deputy news editor Risen Jayaseelan reckons that the TdC example is a big improvement from the past where assets and licenses were dished out to certain connected individuals who didn’t increase the value of those assets or worse, flipped them to other parties at a profit.

Be wary of runaway stocks in a bull run

15 NOV, 2010, 12.00PM IST, DHIRENDRA KUMAR,
Be wary of runaway stocks in a bull run

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index (Sensex) revisiting the previous high of 20873 points could not have had a better timing, with Diwali and stocks making a perfect combination.

However, notwithstanding the festive connection, the index filled a psychological breach by erasing the damage of the great crash of 2008. Or maybe not.

I’m sorry to be the fly in the ointment, but I do think that investors should be paying more attention to what didn’t come back up rather than what did.

There are a number of stocks that haven’t made it back anywhere close to the highs that they touched in January 2008. For instance, for Reliance Communications (the worst of the lot), the Sensex is still at around 4800 points compared to January 2008.

And for anyone still hanging on to their DLF stocks, the Sensex is still at around 6400. There are a number of other stocks that have done almost as badly. Predictably, these are mostly from the telecom and the real estate/infrastructure industries.

Interestingly, at the other end of the scale, there are only a couple of Sensex stocks that have actually outstripped the index over this period.

The moral of the story is obvious: In any kind of market rally, there are always some questionable stories that get sold. It all looks fine as long as the going is good, but when the cycle reverses, many of the stocks and sectors, which looked like great bets, turn out to have been over-hyped. Some of these never come back. How long will it take for a stock like DLF to capture its previous high on an inflation-adjusted basis? A decade, maybe two decades? I wouldn’t be surprised if it never did so.

Today’s markets are characterised by a huge flood of liquidity from foreign investors and, even more importantly, the expectation that this flood of liquidity will continue. Investors will do well to remember that in the stock market, the foundation of future fortunes are laid when stock prices are down. When the bulls are raging, then more often than not, investors are laying the foundations of future losses.

In today’s market (as in January 2008), there are good stocks that are overpriced and there are bad stocks that are overpriced. There may even be some good stocks that are rightly-priced. Good luck finding them.

(The expert is CEO, Value Research)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/savings-centre/analysis/Be-wary-of-runaway-stocks-in-a-bull-run/articleshow/6927176.cms

Rubber prices at 30-year high

Rubber prices have this week hit a 30-year high, causing tyre makers to raise their prices by 10pc to 15pc.
Futures on the benchmark Tokyo commodities index surged to $4,661 per tonne, their highest since February 1980, and cash prices in Thailand climbed to an all-time record. Forecast rain is likely to worsen a supply shortage and Chinese inflation boosted demand across the commodity sector.

According to technical analysts from ProSpreads: "The fundamental reasons for rubber's recent gains are clear and evident: increased car sales in China, coupled with bad weather across South-East Asia, further squeezing supply. It would take a brave speculator to sell into this rally."


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8132582/If-theres-a-global-gas-glut-why-are-prices-rising.html

The rich are playing it safe, says Julius Baer CE

The rich are playing it safe, says Julius Baer CEO
Written by Kelvin Tan
Tuesday, 28 September 2010 11:05


SINGAPORE: Wealthy clients of private bank Bank Julius Baer are still in risk-aversion mode, according to its global CEO Boris Collardi. The bank’s top management and board of directors were in town recently to attend a strategy meeting and celebrate its 120th anniversary.

“People like cash and we are seeing clients going into gold. They have got out of risky assets such as hedge funds and private equity, and they are not entering these assets yet,” said Collardi, responding to Personal Wealth’s questions on where his clients are parking their money at the moment. “There isn’t much exposure — they are taking in complex structured products and their trading activities are not really rising. They have a cautious investment profile at the moment,” added Thomas Meier, Julius Baer CEO of Asia and the Middle East.

This comes as no surprise, the bank’s top executives told regional journalists at a media briefing. “When markets go up, clients — looking to the future — would be more positive and willing to take more risk and do more transactions. The reverse is true when markets go down. Clients get more scared, asset levels go down and transactions go down in the industry,” says Collardi.

Although wealthy clients on the whole continue to shun stocks as an asset class, Collardi is seeing some fund flows into emerging-market equities, value stocks and high dividend yielding plays. “Clients are waiting to see some (sustainable) trends in the markets that last more than a week before going back into riskier asset classes,” said the 36-year-old Swiss-Italian. — The Edge Singapore


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 28, 2010

Eurozone debt crisis: the PIGS at risk



Financial Crisis
Eurozone debt crisis: the PIGS at risk
As Portugal becomes the latest European Union country to admit it could need an EU bail-out, here are the other countries, or PIGS, at risk.


Portugal

Government deficit: €15.7bn
Deficit as a proportion of GDP: 9.3 per cent

Government debt: €127.9bn
Government debt as a percentage of GDP: 76.1 per cent
Ireland
Government deficit: €22.9bn
Deficit as a proportion of GDP: 14.4 per cent
Government debt: €104.5bn
Government debt as a percentage of GDP: 65.5 per cent
Greece
Government deficit: €36.1bn
Deficit as a proportion of GDP: 15.4 per cent
Government debt: €288bn
Government debt as a percentage of GDP: 126.8 per cent
Spain
Government deficit: €117.3bn
Deficit as a proportion of GDP: 11.1 per cent
Government debt: €560.5bn
Government debt as a percentage of GDP: 53.2 per cent
EU limits under the now-defunct stability and growth pact
What Brussels recommends
An annual budget deficit no higher than 3% of GDP (this includes the sum of all public budgets, including municipalities, regions, etc)
A national debt lower than 60% of GDP or approaching that value.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8135036/Eurozone-debt-crisis-the-PIGS-at-risk.html

Time dotCom to cancel 90c from each share, capital repayment RM50.61m

Time dotCom to cancel 90c from each share, capital repayment RM50.61m
Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 15 November 2010 17:13


KUALA LUMPUR: TIME DOTCOM BHD [] is undertaking a corporate exercise which involved a share capital reduction, capital repayment and the acquisition of four companies as it seeks to expand into the regional telecommunications industry,

Time dotCom said on Monday, Nov 15 it would undertake a share capital reduction of its paid-up of RM2.53 billion, comprising of 2.53 billion shares of RM1 each by cancelling 90 sen of the par value.

It also proposed a share consolidation of the 2.53 billion 10 sen shares and consolidate them into 506.15 million shares, on the basis of five shares of 10 sen each to one share of 50 sen each in Time dotCom.

It also entered into two memoranda of agreements with the shareholders of Megawisra Sdn Bhd and Global Transit Ltd (Labuan) to acquire four companies for a total of RM286.5 million via the issuance of new shares and RM38.4 million cash.

The four companies are Global Transit Communications Sdn Bhd for RM106 million, Global Transit Ltd for RM105 million, Global Transit (HK) Ltd and Global Transit Singapore Pte Ltd for RM1 each and AIMS Group for RM128 million in cash and shares.

It also proposed a capital repayment of RM50.61 million or two sen per TdC share.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177153-flash-time-dotcom-to-cancel-90c-from-each-share-capital-repayment-rm5061m.html


Related:
Time dotCom Analyst presentation slides and research paper

Green Packet 3Q net loss narrows to RM13.7m

Green Packet 3Q net loss narrows to RM13.7m
Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 15 November 2010 19:04


KUALA LUMPUR: GREEN PACKET BHD [] posted net losses of RM13.71 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, a decline from the net loss of RM31.84 million a year ago and expects margin erosion in the competitive broadband and voice business segments

It said on Monday, Nov 15 that revenue rose 60% to RM100.89 million from RM63.03 million. Loss per share was 2.1 sen versus eight sen. Green Packet said the net loss was lower in the just ended quarter due to an improvement in turnover.

Of the RM100.89 million in revenue, software, devices and engineering services accounted for RM25.56 million, up 169.4% from RM9.49 million a year ago, broadband services and solutions (RM55.16 million or up 37.7% from RM40.07) and communication/voice services (RM20.17 or up 49.6% from RM13.48 million).

“In line with the government initiative to allocate new spectrum, the broadband and voice business segments are projected to be increasingly competitive with expected margin erosion. Nevertheless, the board of directors expects the performance of the group to improve in tandem with the changing market landscape and planned increase in the subscribers base,” it said.

Green Packet’s total borrowings as at Sept 30 totalled RM237.01 million. Its total turnover was the nine-month period was RM277.71 million compared with RM160.99 million while loss per share was RM56.82 million compared with RM81.93 million.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177158-green-packet-narrows-losses-3q-net-loss-rm137m.html

Amway net profit rises slightly in Q3

Amway net profit rises slightly in Q3
Published: 2010/11/16


AMWAY Malaysia Holdings Bhd’s net profit rose marginally to RM21.5 million for its third quarter ended September 30 2010 from RM20.5 million in the same quarter last year due to an increase in sales revenue.

Revenue rose 13.8 per cent to RM191.5 million mainly due to better distributors’ productivity driven by sales and marketing programme implemented in the period under review.

Amway said it is on track to achieve single digit growth in sales revenue for the current financial year.



Read more: Amway net profit rises slightly in Q3 http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20101116005538/Article/#ixzz15OgnGDwL

Transmile Q3 net loss climbs to RM135m

Transmile Q3 net loss climbs to RM135m
Published: 2010/11/16


Transmile Group Bhd (7000) reported an almost ninefold jump in third quarter net loss mainly due to the lower value of its aircraft.


The financially-troubled air-cargo company posted a net loss of RM135.1 million for the quarter to September 30 2010, up from RM15 million a year ago.

Transmile did not directly comment on its loss but said it made a smaller adjusted loss before tax and exceptional items of RM8.45 million as against RM20.4 million in the same quarter in 2009.

Revenue for the quarter was also two thirds higher at RM50.7 million.

The impairment loss on Transmile's MD-11 aircraft is RM143.8 million.
"The group is committed to dispose of its idle wide body aircraft to settle its loan obligations. Efforts to sell the aircraft are on going and accordingly, the aircraft are presented as held for sale," Transmile said in a statement to Bursa Malaysia.

The planes are now valued at RM242.1 million on its books.

The impairment loss reflects "the fair value less cost to sell based on the latest indicative offers received by the company for the wide body aircraft".

The company now owes more than RM500 million to creditors in the form of convertible bonds and medium-term notes (MTN), which it is unable to repay after freight traffic crashed in late 2008 to early 2009.

The MTN holders are owed RM105 million, with the EPF holding around half of those notes. Other MTN holders are Meridian Asset Management, OSK Group, Agrobank and AmBank Group, according to previous reports.

Transmile had fallen into the financially-troubled category of Practice Note 17 earlier this year. It has made little progress in restructuring its debt as it has failed to find buyers for its MD-11 aircraft.




Read more: Transmile Q3 net loss climbs to RM135m http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/miletran/Article/index_html#ixzz15Og2awt2

Petronas Dagangan opens 950th station

Petronas Dagangan opens 950th station
Published: 2010/11/16


PETRONAS Dagangan Bhd (PDB) (5681) has opened its 950th station in the country, reinforcing its leadership in the petroleum retail market.

The latest store, located at Taman Dagang in Ampang, Selangor, was launched by managing director Amir Hamzah Azizan and Nancy Tan, the senior director for development of McDonald's Malaysia.

McDonald's is PDB's long term and pioneering partner.

"The launch of the ... restaurant further establishes Petronas' commitment as the nation's leading multinational company," Amir said in a statement.

In addition to the growing network of Petronas stations across Malaysia, PDB also has the largest network of convenience stores at petrol stations in the nation with more than 600 Kedai Mesra convenience stores opened to-date.

PDB's first station was opened at Taman Tun Dr Ismail, Kuala Lumpur, in 1982. In Selangor alone, it has 207 stations and 194 Kedai Mesras.

Read more: Petronas Dagangan opens 950th station http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/pedag/Article/#ixzz15Of7uM9R

Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand

Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand
Published: 2010/11/16

TONG Herr Resources Bhd's (5010) subsidiary, Tong Heer Fasteners (Thailand) Co Ltd, has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Pinthong Industrial Park Co Ltd to acquire a piece of land measuring 120,429 sq m in Pinthong Industrial Estate, Thailand, for 173.1 million baht or RM18.1 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, it said the acquisition is to meet the group's plan for expansion of its manufacturing facilities.

Tong Heer Fasteners is a 50.01 per cent-owned subsidiary of Tong Herr Resources.

Incorporated in Thailand, the company's principal activity is manufacture and sale of stainless steel fasteners including bolts, screws and all other threaded items. - Bernama



Read more: Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/tongherr15/Article/#ixzz15OeL6PUF

Monday, 15 November 2010

Parkson



Date announced 15/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011

STOCK Parkson C0DE  5657 
Price $ 5.76 Curr. ttm-PE 20.01 Curr. DY 1.04%
LFY Div 6.00 DPO ratio 22%
ROE 14.6% PBT Margin 25.6% PAT Margin 11.6%

Rec. qRev 656485 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 2%
Rec qPbt 168360 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 9%
Rec. qEps 7.28 q-q % chg 33% y-y% chq 14%
ttm-Eps 28.79 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq -3%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 17.00
Forecast High Pr 7.35 Forecast Low Pr 4.64 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.64
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 59% Downside 41%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 1%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.08 P/NTA 2.92 NTA 1.97 SPE 18.50 Rational Pr 5.33



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

OSK Research maintains Buy on Genting

OSK Research maintains Buy on Genting
Written by The Edge Financial Daily
Monday, 15 November 2010 08:41


KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on GENTING BHD [] but lowered the target price to RM13.81.

The research house said on Monday, Nov 15 the lower TP was after factoring in its recent downward revision in Genting Singapore’s fair value from S$2.65 to S$2.51 and after building in lower than expected sales proceeds of RM425 million from the sale of its Muturi oil & gas deferred consideration rights.

OSK Research said the disposal was a positive move for Genting to focus on gaming operations.

In 2001, the group sold its stake in the Muturi Production Sharing Contract in Indonesia and struck a separate deal that would entitle it to a share of future cash flow from the sale of liquefied natural gas.



However, delays and the risk of future fluctuation in natural gas prices coupled with the group’s intention to focus on its gaming related assets led to it realizing a one-off payment now rather than the rights to future recurring payments, which would have been subjected to the volatility of gas prices.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177084-osk-research-maintains-buy-on-genting.html

----

Genting up on O&G project rights sale
Published: 2010/11/15


Genting Bhd, a Malaysian casino and power group, rose the most in almost a month in Kuala Lumpur trading after receiving US$136.5 million from selling its rights to future sales of an oil and gas (O&G) project in Indonesia.

The stock climbed 1.6 per cent to RM10.32 at 10.51 am, set for its steepest gain since October 19.

Genting also climbed after its share-price estimate was raised to RM13 from RM10.65 at Credit Suisse Group AG, which said Genting is a “cheaper” exposure to its Singapore unit. - Bloomberg



Read more: Genting up on O&G project rights sale http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20101115113005/Article/index_html#ixzz15LLvlq3J

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.76

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.76
Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 15 November 2010 16:16


KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy on TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] with a fair value of RM9.76 following the latest development that the power giant's proposed Lahad Datu coal plant is suspended.

At 4.08pm, Tenaga is up one sen to RM8.52 with 4.11 million shares done on Monday, Nov 15.

OSK Research issued the flash note after the Sabah Environment Minister had said that as far as he was concerned the project was suspended.

“This latest news come as no surprise. We do note however, that there has been a short sharp selldown on TNB last week for which we cannot really indentify a clear reason. This news may have contributed as well as the weakness in the Ringgit.

“In our model, sensitivity analysis shows that for every 1% weakness in ringgit, TNB’s net profit are cut by 1.5% due to higher coal costs. However, the strength in USD should be offset somewhat by weakness in coal prices,” it said.

OSK Research said in any case, its assumptions are very conservative already at US$100 coal price at RM3.13 to the USD for FY11.

“We also note that TNB is a rare post election stock as AFTER the elections, tariff may well go up. Our sensitivity shows for every 1% hike in tariff, TNB’s net profits are raised by 7%,” it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177139-osk-research-maintains-buy-on-tenaga-fv-rm976.html

Poh Kong



Date announced 28/09/2010
Quarter 31/07/2010 Qtr 4 FYE 31/07/2010

STOCK POHKONG C0DE  5080 

Price $ 0.485 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 6.29 Curr. DY 2.89%
LFY Div 1.40 DPO ratio 18%
ROE 10.3% PBT Margin 7.3% PAT Margin 5.9%

Rec. qRev 131906 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 6%
Rec qPbt 9609 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq -18%
Rec. qEps 1.90 q-q % chg 20% y-y% chq -15%
ttm-Eps 7.71 q-q % chg -4% y-y% chq 11%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 6.00 Avg. L PE 5.20
Forecast High Pr 0.59 Forecast Low Pr 0.41 Recent Severe Low Pr 0.41
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 58% Downside 42%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.12 P/NTA 0.65 NTA 0.75 SPE 5.60 Rational Pr 0.43



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad



Date announced 11-Aug-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 4 FYE 30/09/2010

STOCK  F&N  C0DE  3689 

Price $ 15.66 Curr. ttm-PE 17.86 Curr. DY 2.91%
LFY Div 45.50 DPO ratio 55%
ROE 17.4% PBT Margin 10.3% PAT Margin 46.7%

Rec. qRev 990251 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 9%
Rec qPbt 102105 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 51%
Rec. qEps 22.29 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 30%
ttm-Eps 87.69 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 39%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 15.00 Avg. L PE 13.00
Forecast High Pr 16.79 Forecast Low Pr 10.34 Recent Severe Low Pr 10.34
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 17% Downside 83%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 5%

CPE/SPE 1.28 P/NTA 3.11 NTA 5.03 SPE 14.00 Rational Pr 12.28



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

F&N's new CEO set to take firm to next stage of evolution

Saturday November 13, 2010

F&N's new CEO set to take firm to next stage of evolution
By ELAINE ANG
elaine@thestar.com.my


Fraser and Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N) has been very busy this year.

It has been involved in several corporate exercises aimed at transforming the group into a major regional food and beverage player.

In May, F&N sold its entire stake in Malaya Glass Products Sdn Bhd to Berli Jucker Public Co and ACI International Pty Ltd for US$221.7mil (about RM710.8mil) cash.

Then the group acquired a 23.08% stake, or 39.6 million shares, in Cocoaland Holdings Bhd for RM54.6mil cash, or RM1.38 per share in August.

In the same month, F&N appointed Datuk Ng Jui Sia as the company's new chief executive officer to replace Tan Ang Meng who was up for retirement.

Ng is a veteran in the Fraser and Neave Ltd, which owns a 57.4% stake in F&N, having joined the group in 1995.

He is also very familiar with the Malaysian operations as he was managing director of F&N Coca-Cola (M) Sdn Bhd from 1999 to 2006.

Under his stewardship, the company which was in the red became one of the most successful soft drinks companies in the country.

"The actions taken by the company were very much evolutionary in nature. Some of them were forced by circumstances and others evolved because we realised that we needed to grow the business," Ng explains.

"In five years, F&N will become a different animal. In the early years, we were so dependent on soft drinks but by acquiring our dairy business in Thailand and Malaysia we spread our wings wider.

"Our next strategy is to think about building a food pillar. Hence, the investment in snack food company Cocoaland Holdings Bhd."


Datuk Ng Jui Sia ... ‘In five years, F&N will become a different animal.'
The aim is for F&N to become a successful regional food and beverage company.

As part of its evolution process, F&N made the decision to sell the glass business to unlock value in the investment.

"This provides us with tremendous opportunity to optimise the capital and return money back to shareholders as well as look for investments with better yields.

"We moved away from an industrial focus to consumer focus where the returns are generally better," Ng says.

F&N is also looking to fill the segment gap which will result from the expiry of The Coca-Cola Co's bottling and distribution agreement on Sept 30, 2011.

"We will continue to fill the gap in our product segment that will be created by the Coca-Cola transition.

"In future, the gap will be filled by our own brands or other brands that appreciate the excellent marketing and distribution channel that we can provide for an instant foray into the domestic market," Ng says.

F&N has already started the ball rolling by developing and launching new products. Ng says the focus will be on the ready-to-drink tea, juice, energy and water categories.

Moreover, in February, the group announced that it had clinched an exclusive deal to sell and distribute Red Bull energy drinks in Malaysia.

Red Bull is the leading energy drink in Malaysia with a 40% market share in the last decade.

Ng says Japan's leading food and beverage company Kirin Holdings, one of Fraser and Neave group's investors, can also make use of its marketing and distribution channel.

"We are currently in discussions with a party. There are still a lot of brands that have yet to come to this part of the world.

"Our strategy to fill the gap is to have more of our own brands. We are also open to distribute other brands," he adds.

Another strategy is to go regional.

"We want to go regional for all our businesses – to Asean and even the Middle East as all our products are halal.

"We will start with exports first. Once we have built enough sales, we can have a manufacturing presence in these countries," Ng says.

Ng says the group is intensifying dairy exports out of Thailand into Indochina – Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam.

The group acquired Nestle's canned milk business in Thailand in 2006 and has dairy manufacturing facilities in Rojana that commenced commercial production early this year.

The Rojana plants has a capacity of some 10 million cartons of milk.

F&N is also aggressively looking for sizeable snack food companies in the Asean region to acquire in order to build up its business in the food segment.

On the homefront, the group's RM350mil plant in Pulau Indah is expected to be ready in mid-2011 to cater for domestic and overseas demand. The plant will boost capacity to 15 million cartons from the present 11 million cartons .

This will result in the full relocation of its existing dairies production in Petaling Jaya's Section 13 to Pulau Indah.

"We are evaluating whether to develop the land in Section 13, Petaling Jaya or sell it. The F&N Group is major property player in China, Australia and Britain. So, there is a lot of resources we can tap on.

"There is a big opportunity for us to develop it and we have huge capability from the Fraser and Neave group," Ng says.

For the financial year ended Sept 30, 2010, the group's profit after tax (excluding the gain of divestment of the glass operations) rose 48.6% to RM307mil versus RM206.5mil in 2009.

Revenue grew 11.2% to RM3.6bil compared with RM3.3bil.

The divestment of the glass operations resulted in a gain of RM382mil.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/13/business/7418440&sec=business

Genting S'pore net profit down but long-term prospects good

Saturday November 13, 2010

Genting S'pore net profit down but long-term prospects good
By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my


PETALING JAYA: Genting Singapore Plc's prospects, like the city-state's gaming industry in general, are still good in the medium to long term, despite the over 52% plunge in the company's net profit to S$187.8mil for the third quarter ended Sept 30 compared with the preceding quarter.

The company's share price dived following the release of the quarterly results on Wednesday with the shares closing down 15 cents to S$2.13 yesterday.

Genting Singapore, a subsidiary of Genting Bhd, operates Resorts World Sentosa, one of two integrated resorts in the city-state, the other being the Marina Bay Sands operated by Sheldon Adelson's Las Vegas Sands Corp.

The company's share price, which has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, was at its highest ever on Nov 9, when it closed at S$2.35.

The share price and valuation, according to a market sceptic, did not seem to reflect the short-term challenges ahead.

The company has an enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EV/Ebitda) of 19.42 times and a price-to-earnings ratio of over 32 times.

The short-term challenges, according to analysts, essentially revolved around when junket operations could commence legally and when the industry could reach a level of maturity when growth, like Macau, would be exponential.

These challenges, however, would mean that parent company Genting would miss out on better contributions from the Singaporean operations although several analysts felt that there could be earnings surprises down the road.

"The company's Resorts World Sentosa is only in the first year of operations, so there is definitely more room for growth," an analyst with a local investment bank told StarBizWeek.

She said although the share price might have run a little ahead of valuation, long term the prospects were still good.

HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd analyst Yee Mei Hui said even if EV/Ebitda was on the high side, there was a premium based on the fact that the Singaporean market was a duopoly.

"It is also quite clear regulations-wise over the next 10 years, so there's lower risk and the market has yet to see its full potential as in Macao," she added.

Besides which, Yee said, junkets could start as early as the beginning of 2011.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/13/business/7418599&sec=business

Genting to record one-off net gain of RM390m

Saturday November 13, 2010

Genting to record one-off net gain of RM390m

PETALING JAYA: Genting Bhd is expected to record a one-off net gain of about RM390mil after its indirect 95%-owned subsidiary Laila Ltd received a total cash consideration of US$136.5mil.

Genting said in a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday that Laila had signed an agreement dated July 2, 2001, to sell Cairns Ltd, which had a 45% interest in the Muturi production-sharing contract (PSC) in Indonesia, to BP Global Investments Ltd (BPGIL).

Laila, which received an initial payment of US$106.8mil, was also entitled to payments of deferred consideration starting in the month in which commercial petroleum production attributable to the contract area and ending with the Muturi PSC termination.

“Laila has on Nov 12 received a total cash consideration of US$136.5mil to release BPGIL from its obligation to make any and all future payments including the deferred consideration, pursuant to an agreement signed with BPGIL on Oct 1, 2010,” Genting said.

“With the release, Laila is able to realise the value of the deferred consideration upfront instead of receiving future monthly payments of deferred consideration that would be subject to changes in commodity price, production and operational risks.”

It said the one-off net gain of about RM390mil would contribute an increase of about 10.6 sen to its earnings per share and net assets per share.

Genting added that none of the directors and/or major shareholders of the company and/or persons connected with them had any direct or indirect interest in the release.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/13/business/7421804&sec=business

Sunday, 14 November 2010

Genting Berhad



Date announced 26/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK GENTING
C0DE  3182 

Price $ 10.16 Curr. ttm-PE 23.64 Curr. DY 0.71%
LFY Div 7.20 DPO ratio 25%
ROE 11.5% PBT Margin 39.0% PAT Margin 18.1%

Rec. qRev 4085070 q-q % chg 31% y-y% chq 94%
Rec qPbt 1593130 q-q % chg 696% y-y% chq 179%
Rec. qEps 20.00 q-q % chg 218% y-y% chq 245%
ttm-Eps 42.98 q-q % chg 49% y-y% chq 496%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 17.00 Avg. L PE 15.00
Forecast High Pr 9.33 Forecast Low Pr 6.89 Recent Severe Low Pr 6.89
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside -34% Downside 134%
One Year Appreciation Potential -2% Avg. yield 1%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 0%

CPE/SPE 1.48 P/NTA 2.71 NTA 3.75 SPE 16.00 Rational Pr 6.88


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM)



Date announced 26/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK GENM (Resorts)
C0DE  4715 

Price $ 3.5 Curr. ttm-PE 15.40 Curr. DY 2.09%
LFY Div 7.30 DPO ratio 31%
ROE 12.8% PBT Margin 33.8% PAT Margin 24.9%

Rec. qRev 1226492 q-q % chg -9% y-y% chq 2%
Rec qPbt 414130 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq -6%
Rec. qEps 5.36 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq -7%
ttm-Eps 22.73 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 132%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 3.77 Forecast Low Pr 2.49 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.49
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 21% Downside 79%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 4%

CPE/SPE 1.28 P/NTA 1.98 NTA 1.77 SPE 12.00 Rational Pr 2.73


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Maybulk



Date announced 24/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Maybulk
C0DE  5077 

Price $ 2.95 Curr. ttm-PE 12.24 Curr. DY 5.08%
LFY Div 15.00 DPO ratio 62%
ROE 14.7% PBT Margin 34.7% PAT Margin 32.9%

Rec. qRev 96067 q-q % chg -16% y-y% chq 36%
Rec qPbt 33369 q-q % chg -38% y-y% chq -55%
Rec. qEps 3.16 q-q % chg -39% y-y% chq -56%
ttm-Eps 24.10 q-q % chg -14% y-y% chq 4%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 11.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 3.07 Forecast Low Pr 2.13 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.13
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 13% Downside 87%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.17 P/NTA 1.80 NTA 1.64 SPE 10.50 Rational Pr 2.53


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Petronas Gas



Date announced 27/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK  PETGAS 
C0DE  6033 

Price $ 11 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 20.63 Curr. DY 4.55%
LFY Div 50.00 DPO ratio 105%
ROE 12.6% PBT Margin 58.8% PAT Margin 43.9%

Rec. qRev 872645 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 513213 q-q % chg 85% y-y% chq 45%
Rec. qEps 19.35 q-q % chg 90% y-y% chq 42%
ttm-Eps 53.31 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 17%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 18.00
Forecast High Pr 13.61 Forecast Low Pr 9.60 Recent Severe Low Pr 9.60
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 65% Downside 35%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.09 P/NTA 2.59 NTA 4.24 SPE 19.00 Rational Pr 10.13


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Tenaga



Date announced 28/10/2010
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 31/08/2010

STOCK Tenaga
C0DE  5347 

Price $ 8.51 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 11.53 Curr. DY 3.06%
LFY Div 26.00 DPO ratio 35%
ROE 11.2% PBT Margin 6.4% PAT Margin 4.9%

Rec. qRev 7869400 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 499900 q-q % chg -61% y-y% chq 92%
Rec. qEps 8.94 q-q % chg -65% y-y% chq 136%
ttm-Eps 73.78 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 249%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 10.26 Forecast Low Pr 7.73 Recent Severe Low Pr 7.73
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 69% Downside 31%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.00 P/NTA 1.29 NTA 6.61 SPE 11.50 Rational Pr 8.48


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

KAF



Date announced 28/10/2010
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/05/2011

STOCK KAF
C0DE  5096 

Price $ 1.53 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 8.47 Curr. DY 4.90%
LFY Div 7.50 DPO ratio 43%
ROE 9.6% PBT Margin 96.8% PAT Margin 71.8%

Rec. qRev 10406 q-q % chg 21% y-y% chq 3%
Rec qPbt 10077 q-q % chg 83% y-y% chq 22%
Rec. qEps 6.23 q-q % chg 56% y-y% chq 14%
ttm-Eps 18.06 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 158%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 7.00 Avg. L PE 5.00
Forecast High Pr 1.61 Forecast Low Pr 1.19 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.19
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 20% Downside 80%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.41 P/NTA 0.81 NTA 1.89 SPE 6.00 Rational Pr 1.08



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Net interest income, Indon ops boost Maybank earnings

Saturday November 13, 2010

Net interest income, Indon ops boost Maybank earnings

PETALING JAYA: Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) posted a 16.6% rise in net profit to RM1.03bil for the first quarter ended Sept 30 compared with the same quarter last year due to an increase in net interest income and expansion of Indonesian operations.

The bank said in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday that revenue was 9.56% higher at RM5bil.

Maybank said the 9% or RM146.9mil increase in net interest income was mainly due to improvements in operations from higher net interest income margin in the Malaysian operations arising from increases in the overnight policy rate as well as the expansion of Indonesian operations.

It added that net income from the insurance business, which increased by 20.5% or RM88.8mil, was due to lower claims incurred.

It said income from Islamic banking operations decreased by 11.3% to RM338.2mil due to higher provision for profit equalisation reserves in the Islamic business, which was mitigated by an increase in the growth of assets that increased gross income.

Non-interest income was 1.8% higher at RM1bil compared with the previous corresponding quarter due to contributions from realised gain arising from sale of securities of RM36.4mil and higher loans-related income of RM35.4mil.

The bank said this was mitigated by a fall in commission, service charges and fees amounting and foreign exchange loss.

It added that allowance for losses on loans, advances and financing decreased by 36.6% to RM264.7mil mainly due to higher recovery during the period.

Overhead expenses increased by 4.4% to RM1.55bil mainly due to higher personnel costs which were mitigated by a decline in establishment and marketing costs as well as lower administration and general expenses, it said, adding that personnel costs increased by 23.1% to RM832.7mil due to the timing of crediting of salary in arrears and cost of living allowances arising from the conclusion of the new staff collective agreement.

The bank said although loans and debt securities grew by 4.4% on an annualised basis, this was expected to gain momentum towards meeting the target of 12%, particularly for the global wholesale banking and Malaysian consumer portfolio.

Meanwhile, Maybank president and chief executive officer Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar said in a press release that the bank would focus on key markets across the region where there were significant opportunities to bring its unique brand of products and facilities to stakeholders.

“This quarter’s results continue to bear testimony to the group-wide transformation efforts that we have embarked on since 2008,” he added.

Abdul Wahid said the bank had made significant progress in the Indonesian operations, where loans growth was ahead of target at 30% and Singapore, which was on target at 5%.

“With increasing organisational confidence in our transformation journey, we’ll accelerate our growth efforts, leveraging synergies, enhancing productivities and shortening customer turnaround times in our preferred segments,” he said.

Abdul Wahid said barring unforeseen circumstances, the bank’s performance for the financial year ended June 30, 2011 (FY11) was expected to be better than FY10 and on track to meet the targeted 14% return on equity.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/13/business/7419005&sec=business

Vietnam: Instead of depositing gold at banks, people will keep gold under their pillows

Last update 03/11/2010 09:30:00 AM (GMT+7) 

Instead of depositing gold at banks, people will keep gold under their pillows
VietNamNet Bridge – While some experts believe that the Circular No 22, forbidding commercial banks from lending cash against gold collateral, will bring positive effects to the market, others argue that the legal document will take a big volume of gold out or circulation, which will be a big waste.

New legal document will help stabilize gold and foreign currency markets 


SBV halts lending against gold collateral 


New circular will put pressure on the market
When issuing the new regulation on borrowing and lending in gold, Nguyen Ngoc Bao, Director of the Monetary Policy Department under the State Bank of Vietnam said that to date, 23 credit institutions have mobilized and lent in gold. By the end of September 2010, the total deposits in gold had reached 92.6 tons, worth 73 trillion dong. Meanwhile, the outstanding loans in gold had only accounted for 60 percent of the mobilized capital.

With the new decision, commercial banks, especially the ones in the south, now have to stop accepting more deposits and think of taking back the loans in gold.

Experts have warned that in the context of the current high and fluctuating gold prices taking back a big volume, estimated at 55 tons will have big impacts on the market.

An expert from Bao Tin Minh Chau Company said that recently, when the State Bank allowed to import only several tons of gold, this was enough to cool down the market. However, the estimated 55-ton volume of gold banks are going to take back is too big.

As such, the demand for gold will increase, while the quotas for importing gold are not likely to be granted. Even if the State Bank allows to import gold, the volume will not be large .

Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Van Giau, before issuing the new legal document, said that gold mobilization and lending can be seen only in Vietnam.

In reality, the demand for mobilizing capital in gold and lending in gold are quite commonplace in Vietnam. Therefore, when the central bank prohibits gold borrowing and lending, banks will lose profit, while deposits will lose a safe investment channel.

New regulation will not be able to prevent uncertainties

The State Bank of Vietnam, when issuing the new legal document, said that the new policy aims to settle the problems in gold circulation and reduce the gold and foreign currency speculation, thus helping stabilize the market.
However, experts still have doubts about the possible effects of the new document.

In Vietnam, gold can be divided into two kinds: merchandise gold and the gold kept among people. Merchandise gold is being used as a type of currency which is used to trade, contribute capital and to lend to others. Meanwhile, a big volume of gold is still lying among people as their assets.

Once banks are not allowed to lend in gold, they will not accept gold deposits any more. As such, instead of depositing gold at banks, people will keep gold under their pillows. This also means that a big volume of capital will be put out of circulation and control, which should be seen as a big waste.

The State Bank believes that the new regulation will stop people from hoarding, because they cannot deposit it for profit. However, some experts do not think this will happen, saying that it is not so easy to change the way of thinking of Vietnamese people, who have the habit of hoarding gold as their assets.


Le Khac

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/business/1040/instead-of-depositing-gold-at-banks--people-will-keep-gold-under-their-pillows.html