Date announced 11-Aug-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 4 FYE 30/09/2010
STOCK F&N C0DE 3689
Price $ 15.66 Curr. ttm-PE 17.86 Curr. DY 2.91%
LFY Div 45.50 DPO ratio 55%
ROE 17.4% PBT Margin 10.3% PAT Margin 46.7%
Rec. qRev 990251 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 9%
Rec qPbt 102105 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 51%
Rec. qEps 22.29 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 30%
ttm-Eps 87.69 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 39%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 15.00 Avg. L PE 13.00
Forecast High Pr 16.79 Forecast Low Pr 10.34 Recent Severe Low Pr 10.34
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 17% Downside 83%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 5%
CPE/SPE 1.28 P/NTA 3.11 NTA 5.03 SPE 14.00 Rational Pr 12.28
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
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