Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM)

Date announced 26/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK GENM (Resorts)
C0DE  4715 

Price $ 3.5 Curr. ttm-PE 15.40 Curr. DY 2.09%
LFY Div 7.30 DPO ratio 31%
ROE 12.8% PBT Margin 33.8% PAT Margin 24.9%

Rec. qRev 1226492 q-q % chg -9% y-y% chq 2%
Rec qPbt 414130 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq -6%
Rec. qEps 5.36 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq -7%
ttm-Eps 22.73 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 132%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 3.77 Forecast Low Pr 2.49 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.49
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 21% Downside 79%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 4%

CPE/SPE 1.28 P/NTA 1.98 NTA 1.77 SPE 12.00 Rational Pr 2.73


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr