Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Monday 15 November 2010
Parkson
Date announced 15/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011
STOCK Parkson C0DE 5657
Price $ 5.76 Curr. ttm-PE 20.01 Curr. DY 1.04%
LFY Div 6.00 DPO ratio 22%
ROE 14.6% PBT Margin 25.6% PAT Margin 11.6%
Rec. qRev 656485 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 2%
Rec qPbt 168360 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 9%
Rec. qEps 7.28 q-q % chg 33% y-y% chq 14%
ttm-Eps 28.79 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq -3%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 17.00
Forecast High Pr 7.35 Forecast Low Pr 4.64 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.64
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 59% Downside 41%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 1%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%
CPE/SPE 1.08 P/NTA 2.92 NTA 1.97 SPE 18.50 Rational Pr 5.33
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
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