The Anxiety and Joy of Selling

It is not possible to sell at the absolute top or to buy at the absolute bottom of the price fluctuations of your stock.  Therefore, do not focus on timing your selling or buying at the absolute extremes of price fluctuations.  Be content that you have sold close to the peak and that you have bought close to the bottom of the price fluctuations.

One of my stock has moved upwards, very much higher than the fair value that I give to it.  It's PE has now exceeded 1.5X its signature PE, granted that its signature PE was a single digit one.  There was no deterioration in its fundamentals.  Its recent quarterly report did not report or suggest any dramatic improvement in its fundamentals.  The price of this stock has climbed with intermittent periods of small corrections over a very short time of less than a month.  This counter has given dividend yearly and at this present high price, the yield is rather low.   I sold off half of my stocks in this counter locking in a very good substantial profit. The other half will be sold gradually should the price continues to move upwards, deteriorating its 'upside potential to its downside risk ratio'.

As the remaining shares are now held virtually cost free, this investment operation is positive NOW and will always be positive in the FUTURE.

Related:

The Anxiety of Selling

KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Berhad

Date announced 24/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK KFC C0DE 3492

Price $ 3.95 Curr. ttm-PE 21.87 Curr. DY 1.52%
LFY Div 6.00 DPO ratio 36%
ROE 16.6% PBT Margin 8.9% PAT Margin 6.0%

Rec. qRev 631551 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 8%
Rec qPbt 56236 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 14%
Rec. qEps 4.82 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 9%
ttm-Eps 18.06 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 16%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 23.00 Avg. L PE 20.00
Forecast High Pr 5.30 Forecast Low Pr 3.26 Recent Severe Low Pr 3.26
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 66% Downside 34%
One Year Appreciation Potential 7% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 9%

CPE/SPE 1.02 P/NTA 3.62 NTA 1.09 SPE 21.50 Rational Pr 3.88



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 4.25
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 2.2% 13 Weeks 30.4%
4 Weeks 59.2% 52 Weeks 129.7%

KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: KFC Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Recreation
Sub Industry: Restaurants & Fast Food Franchisers

2009 Sales 2,297,431,000
(Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 13,217

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 3,370,675,000
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 793,100,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 594,819,200


Day's Range: 3.92 - 4.00
52wk Range: 2.70 - 11.50
Volume: 727,600
Avg Vol (3m): 2,204,970


Related:

US-based Carlyle makes higher bid for QSR

Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM)

Date announced 25/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK GENM (Resorts) C0DE  4715 

Price $ 3.38 Curr. ttm-PE 15.12 Curr. DY 2.16%
LFY Div 7.30 DPO ratio 31%
ROE 11.4% PBT Margin 34.6% PAT Margin 28.0%

Rec. qRev 1202916 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq -10%
Rec qPbt 416262 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq -12%
Rec. qEps 5.92 q-q % chg 10% y-y% chq -6%
ttm-Eps 22.35 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 120%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 3.71 Forecast Low Pr 2.49 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.49
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 27% Downside 73%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 5%

CPE/SPE 1.26 P/NTA 1.72 NTA 1.96 SPE 12.00 Rational Pr 2.68



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 3.46
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week -1.1% 13 Weeks -3.1%
4 Weeks 12.0% 52 Weeks 18.5%

Genting Malaysia Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: RESORTS Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Miscellaneous
Sub Industry: Hotel & Motel Chains

2009 Sales 4,991,700,000
(Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 13,700
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 20,447,107,522
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 5,909,568,648
Share Type: Common Closely Held Shares: 2,670,000


Day's Range: 3.37 - 3.40
52wk Range: 2.46 - 3.72
Volume: 4,064,100
Avg Vol (3m): 8,538,920

Genting Berhad

Date announced 25/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK GENTING C0DE  3182 

Price $ 10.4 Curr. ttm-PE 19.38 Curr. DY 0.69%
LFY Div 7.20 DPO ratio 25%
ROE 13.2% PBT Margin 36.3% PAT Margin 19.6%

Rec. qRev 3909209 q-q % chg -4% y-y% chq 63%
Rec qPbt 1418393 q-q % chg -11% y-y% chq 76%
Rec. qEps 20.72 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 106%
ttm-Eps 53.65 q-q % chg 25% y-y% chq 192%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 17.00 Avg. L PE 15.00
Forecast High Pr 11.64 Forecast Low Pr 6.20 Recent Severe Low Pr 6.20
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 23% Downside 77%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 4%

CPE/SPE 1.21 P/NTA 2.57 NTA 4.05 SPE 16.00 Rational Pr 8.58



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 10.22
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 0.6% 13 Weeks -2.7%
4 Weeks 18.7% 52 Weeks 43.5%

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 37,877,353,780
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 3,706,199,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 684,598,840


Day's Range: 10.18 - 10.40
52wk Range: 6.20 - 10.82
Volume: 3,081,400
Avg Vol (3m): 7,254,500

Petronas Dagangan

Date announced 25/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK PETDAG C0DE  5681 

Price $ 11.1 Curr. ttm-PE 14.64 Curr. DY 5.41%
LFY Div 60.00 DPO ratio 79%
ROE 16.3% PBT Margin 5.2% PAT Margin 3.7%

Rec. qRev 5496313 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 7%
Rec qPbt 284250 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
Rec. qEps 20.70 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
ttm-Eps 75.80 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 21%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 12.58 Forecast Low Pr 8.66 Recent Severe Low Pr 8.66
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 38% Downside 62%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.33 P/NTA 2.38 NTA 4.66 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 8.34

The Board has declared an Interim Dividend of 30 sen per share less tax at 25% and Special Interim Dividend of 10 sen per share less tax at 25%.


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 11.20
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 2.9% 13 Weeks 1.8%
4 Weeks 9.2% 52 Weeks 27.4%

Petronas Dagangan Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: PETD Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Oil, Gas, Coal & Related Services
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Oil, Gas & Coal

2010 Sales 20,687,042,000
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
Employees: 1,311
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 11,126,684,800
Fiscal Yr Ends: March Shares Outstanding: 993,454,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 762,064,700


Day's Range: 10.90 - 11.12
52wk Range: 8.50 - 11.90
Volume: 648,500
Avg Vol (3m): 228,805


6 months ended 30/09/2010
Cash Flow Statement


CFO  1,010.770 m
CFI  (151.474 m)
CFF (335.291 m)
Net Increase in Cash & Eq 524.005 m

Wall Street Regains Its Swagger

Karambunai 39 trading days: Share hike mainly based on speculation

Karambunai 39 trading days (22/9/10 - 16/11/10)

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AuRRzs61sKqRdE9YMkdDZ0tMOXQ2YmhEZ1NQdXo1VHc&hl=en&authkey=CIGduo4G

From 22/9/2010 to 16/11/2010 (39 trading days)

Total (39 days) volume traded 3,194.73 million shares (157.37% of Shares Outstanding)

Average daily volume traded 81.92 million shares (4.04% of Shares Outstanding)

Total (39 days) amount traded RM 634.18 million 

Average daily amount traded RM 16.26 million

Shares Outstanding 2,030.06 million shares

Closely Held Shares 1,472.40 million shares

At 20 sen per share, Market Capitalization was RM 406.012 million.

Related:

Karambunai shares soar on false report

Karambunai denies plan to build resort casino

Karambunai in the limelight after budget:  Share hike mainly based on speculation

Quarterly Results of Karambunai
Figures are in MR millions

Revenue, Earnings PAT

26.8.2010
Q1 2011 24.031, -14.386

Q4 2010 45.241, -12.973
Q3 2010 38.213, -2.058
Q2 2010 38.148, -3.559
Q1 2010 22.298, -14.609

Q4 2009 26.021, -41.187
Q3 2009 57.736, 1.396
Q2 2009 67.151, 5.818
Q1 2009 44.481, -2.509

Q4 2008 58.578, -14.421
Q3 2008 38.113, -8.288 
Q2 2008 41.414, -3.689
Q1 2008 30.181, -9.041

Q4 2007 39.702, -3.494
Q3 2007 26.799, 66.736
Q2 2007 33,245, -2.797
Q1 2007 29.425, -7.173

Q4 2006 67.082, -3.969
Q3 2006 51.123, 7.924
Q2 2006 44.336, -6.514
Q1 2006 34.423, -9.130

Q4 2005 45.700, -22.864
Q3 2005 34.444, -12.573
Q2 2005 33.138, -9.228
(26.11.2004)

Tong Herr Resources Berhad

Date announced 24/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK TONGHER C0DE  5010 

Price $ 1.86 Curr. ttm-PE  9.70 Curr. DY 2.69%
LFY Div 5.00 DPO ratio 26%
ROE 8.4% PBT Margin 21.6% PAT Margin 7.7%

Rec. qRev 109005 q-q % chg 71% y-y% chq 125%
Rec qPbt 23498 q-q % chg 135% y-y% chq 499%
Rec. qEps 6.57 q-q % chg 32% y-y% chq 136%
ttm-Eps 19.18 q-q % chg 25% y-y% chq 83%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 10.00 Avg. L PE 4.00
Forecast High Pr 2.45 Forecast Low Pr 1.62 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.62
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 71% Downside 29%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.39 P/NTA 0.81 NTA 2.29 SPE 7.00 Rational Pr 1.34



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 1.81
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week -1.6% 13 Weeks -1.6%
4 Weeks -3.7% 52 Weeks 7.7%

Tong Herr Resources Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: TONGHER Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Machinery & Equipment
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Machinery & Equipment

2009 Sales 211,554,410
(Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 183
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 230,434,720
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 127,312,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 78,455,794


Day's Range: 1.84 - 1.88
52wk Range: 1.65 - 2.04
Volume: 50,100
Avg Vol (3m): 54,798


Prospects for the current financial year (from its quarterly report)
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects its business prospects for the current financial year to remain positive.

IJM Corporation Berhad

Date announced 23/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK  IJM  C0DE  3336 

Price $ 5.69 Curr. ttm-PE 18.77 Curr. DY 1.93%
LFY Div 11.00 DPO ratio 44%
ROE 8.0% PBT Margin 25.3% PAT Margin 15.2%

Rec. qRev 785504 q-q % chg -20% y-y% chq -25%
Rec qPbt 198363 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 52%
Rec. qEps 8.86 q-q % chg 31% y-y% chq 74%
ttm-Eps 30.32 q-q % chg 14% y-y% chq 58%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 18.00 Avg. L PE 14.00
Forecast High Pr 6.97 Forecast Low Pr 4.43 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.43
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 50% Downside 50%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.17 P/NTA 1.51 NTA 3.78 SPE 16.00 Rational Pr 4.85



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 5.69
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 3.5% 13 Weeks 3.8%
4 Weeks 13.6% 52 Weeks 22.6%

IJM Corporation Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: IJMS Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL SIN Major Industry: Construction
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Construction

2010 Sales 4,013,530,000
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
Employees: 4,320
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 7,687,203,753
Fiscal Yr Ends: March Shares Outstanding: 1,351,002,417
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 413,013,832


Day's Range: 5.64 - 5.64
52wk Range: 4.28 - 5.72
Volume: 0
Avg Vol (3m): 4,512,800

Ajinomoto

Date announced 23/11/2020
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK Ajinomoto C0DE 2658

Price $ 4.22 Curr. ttm-PE 10.26 Curr. DY 4.27%
LFY Div 18.00 DPO ratio 46%
ROE 12.0% PBT Margin 9.2% PAT Margin 6.9%

Rec. qRev 77686 q-q % chg -5% y-y% chq 13%
Rec qPbt 7129 q-q % chg -38% y-y% chq -6%
Rec. qEps 8.85 q-q % chg -38% y-y% chq -10%
ttm-Eps 41.15 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 23%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 10.00 Avg. L PE 6.00
Forecast High Pr 5.25 Forecast Low Pr 3.29 Recent Severe Low Pr 3.29
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 53% Downside 47%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.28 P/NTA 1.23 NTA 3.43 SPE 8.00 Rational Pr 3.29



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 4.26
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)

Recent Stock Performance:
1 Week -2.7% 13 Weeks 5.2%
4 Weeks 2.9% 52 Weeks 31.9%

Ajinomoto (Malaysia) Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: AJI Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: AMN Major Industry: Food & Beverages
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Food

2010 Sales 284,616,880
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
 Employees: 380

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 259,003,740
Fiscal Yr Ends: March Shares Outstanding: 60,799,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 34,430,813

Day's Range: 4.22 - 4.30
52wk Range: 3.18 - 4.97
Volume: 76,400
Avg Vol (3m): 63,365

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd

Date announced 23/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Maybulk C0DE  5077 

Price $ 2.95 Curr. ttm-PE 11.39 Curr. DY 5.08%
LFY Div 15.00 DPO ratio 62%
ROE 15.7% PBT Margin 80.8% PAT Margin 80.5%

Rec. qRev 109027 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 88069 q-q % chg 164% y-y% chq 25%
Rec. qEps 8.77 q-q % chg 178% y-y% chq 26%
ttm-Eps 25.91 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 63%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 11.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 3.30 Forecast Low Pr 2.13 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.13
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 30% Downside 70%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 9%

CPE/SPE 1.08 P/NTA 1.78 NTA 1.65 SPE 10.50 Rational Pr 2.72



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 2.89
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)

Recent Stock Performance
1 Week -2.0% 13 Weeks -3.3%
4 Weeks 0.3% 52 Weeks -10.8%

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
Bhd Key Data:
Ticker: MAYBULK
Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL
Major Industry: Transportation
Sub Industry: Shipping

2009 Sales 303,707,000 (Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 371

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits
Market Cap: 2,890,000,000
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 1,000,000,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 745,849,550

UMW Holdings Berhad

Date announced 22/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK UMW C0DE  4588 

Price $ 6.8 Curr. ttm-PE 12.89 Curr. DY 2.94%
LFY Div 20.00 DPO ratio 59%
ROE 14.7% PBT Margin 11.0% PAT Margin 4.8%

Rec. qRev 3087276 q-q % chg -6% y-y% chq 10%
Rec qPbt 340922 q-q % chg -23% y-y% chq 18%
Rec. qEps 13.17 q-q % chg -30% y-y% chq 15%
ttm-Eps 52.76 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 49%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 8.00
Forecast High Pr 8.08 Forecast Low Pr 5.50 Recent Severe Low Pr 5.50
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 50% Downside 50%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.29 P/NTA 1.89 NTA 3.59 SPE 10.00 Rational Pr 5.28



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Integrax Berhad

Date announced 22/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Integra C0DE  9555 
Price $ 1.6 Curr. ttm-PE 11.01 Curr. DY 1.88%
LFY Div 3.00 DPO ratio 21%
ROE 8.1% PBT Margin 61.6% PAT Margin 44.4%

Rec. qRev 24918 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 4%
Rec qPbt 15340 q-q % chg -15% y-y% chq 9%
Rec. qEps 3.68 q-q % chg -19% y-y% chq 13%
ttm-Eps 14.53 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 26%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 8.00 Avg. L PE 4.00
Forecast High Pr 1.48 Forecast Low Pr 0.94 Recent Severe Low Pr 0.94
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside -21% Downside 121%
One Year Appreciation Potential -1% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 1%

CPE/SPE 1.84 P/NTA 0.89 NTA 1.79 SPE 6.00 Rational Pr 0.87



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

PPB Group Berhad

Date announced 22/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK PPB C0DE  4065 

Price $ 18.8 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 10.70 Curr. DY 3.88%
LFY Div 73.00 DPO ratio 54%
ROE 15.9% PBT Margin 55.2% PAT Margin 50.1%

Rec. qRev 574531 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq -38%
Rec qPbt 317086 q-q % chg -3% y-y% chq -51%
Rec. qEps 24.29 q-q % chg -9% y-y% chq -52%
ttm-Eps 175.67 q-q % chg -13% y-y% chq 28%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 10.00 Avg. L PE 7.00
Forecast High Pr 22.42 Forecast Low Pr 16.00 Recent Severe Low Pr 16.00
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 56% Downside 44%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.26 P/NTA 1.70 NTA 11.03 SPE 8.50 Rational Pr 14.93



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

KPJ Healthcare Berhad

Date announced 30/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK KPJ C0DE  5878 

Price $ 3.73 Curr. ttm-PE 17.50 Curr. DY 2.14%
LFY Div 8.00 DPO ratio 41%
ROE 16.4% PBT Margin 10.1% PAT Margin 7.1%

Rec. qRev 410237 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 41305 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 15%
Rec. qEps 5.54 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 16%
ttm-Eps 21.32 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 32%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 3.26 Forecast Low Pr 2.67 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.67
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside -78% Downside 178%
One Year Appreciation Potential -2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 0%

CPE/SPE 1.67 P/NTA 2.87 NTA 1.30 SPE 10.50 Rational Pr 2.24



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

TSH Resources Berhad

Date announced 18/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK TSH C0DE  9059 
Price $ 2.6 Curr. ttm-PE 16.84 Curr. DY 1.92%

LFY Div 5.00 DPO ratio 28%
ROE 8.7% PBT Margin 12.7% PAT Margin 8.5%

Rec. qRev 214265 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 27131 q-q % chg 53% y-y% chq 1%
Rec. qEps 4.45 q-q % chg 61% y-y% chq -22%
ttm-Eps 15.44 q-q % chg -8% y-y% chq 83%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 10.00 Avg. L PE 8.00
Forecast High Pr 1.97 Forecast Low Pr 1.73 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.73
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside -262% Downside 362%
One Year Appreciation Potential -5% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) -3%

CPE/SPE 1.87 P/NTA 1.46 NTA 1.78 SPE 9.00 Rational Pr 1.39



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Gruesome Company

World's Greatest Investors

Great money managers are like the rock stars of the financial world. The greatest investors have all made a fortune off their success and in many cases, they've helped millions of others achieve similar returns.

These investors differ widely in the strategies and philosophies they applied to their trading; some came up with new and innovative ways to analyze their investments, while others picked securites almost entirely by instinct. Where these investors don't differ is in their ability to consistently beat the market.

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World's Greatest Investors

20 Tools For Building Up Your Portfolio

20 Tools For Building Up Your Portfolio

The concept of a portfolio and the birth of individual investing have opened up possibilities for everyone. The only real difference between you and Warren Buffett is a few well-chosen stocks - the billion-dollar fortune is the result. Stocks, while important, aren’t all there is to investing. Keeping your portfolio divided between the different investment vehicles reduces your overall risk while still generating returns. Here are 20 investment tools you can use to increase your portfolio’s diversity. Read: 20 Investments You Should Know

Inflation does matter in China and the world

Inflation does matter in China and the world
By Huang Shuo (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-11-15 16:58

The growth rate of China's consumer price index (CPI) was 4.4 percent year-on-year in October, a 25-month high. The rate is up 0.8 percentage points from September. This is an alarming statistic for a country that for the past three decades has had steady economic growth. Inflation risks do matter for China.

In particular, the new factor of a rise in prices, main promoter for CPI growth, took up 3 percentage points of the 4.4 percent surge. Prices of agricultural products and food have been playing major roles in contributing to the CPI hike. Food prices surged by 10.1 percent compared with the same period of last year as a result of the price hike in international agricultural products, and the recent flood in South China’s Hainan province affected vegetable prices and oil prices, adding to the product costs, said Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In addition, daily essentials such as eggs and vegetables are leading the price increases in China's consumer market, followed by meat, oil and white sugar.

As the industry generally expected that about 4 percent would be the proper answer for CPI, the final data released by the NBS on Nov 11, 2010, was 0.4 percentage points higher than estimated, which astonished the public and drew lots of attention from domestic and foreign experts.

Consumer prices associated with social stability are the top concern of the public in China. The increase of CPI indicates that the surge in commodities prices is ongoing in the consumption market, closely linked with the daily lives of ordinary people. China’s income per capita still lags behind the United States, the European Union, and even some other emerging economies. How to increase income and stabilize or lower the prices in the market, especially for daily essentials, should be attached great importance by the government.

Livelihood is like the basis for constructing a building, which lays the firm foundation for a harmonious society. Whether people can lead a good life decides the quality of governance by central and local authorities. High consumer prices pose an unstable economic factor to improving the living standard of people.

More regulations are expected for the soaring Chinese CPI. As to that situation, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank of China, has noticed and adopted a measure increasing the required reserve ratio by 50 basis points and coming into effect on Nov 16, 2010, in order to ease the pressure from the second round of quantitative easing policy (QE2) by the Federal Reserve of the US and increasing liquidity caused commodity prices to rise in China. But is it enough to merely depend on national economic regulatory authorities?

Every economy released loose monetary policies to conquer the challenges brought by the international financial crisis in 2008 and get out of the recession. But side effects are inevitable. Rising inflation is one of the consequences. As a result, countries with expansion policies on issuing more currencies should work together and reach agreements to confront the emerging side effect -- inflation.

The author can be reached at larryhuangshuo@gmail.com.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/15/content_11552427.htm

China rate rises no panacea to curb inflation: PBOC adviser

China rate rises no panacea to curb inflation: PBOC adviser
(Agencies)
Updated: 2010-11-18 11:06

China should not solely rely on interest rate rises to curb inflation, an academic adviser to the People's Bank of China said in remarks published on Thursday.

Zhou Qiren, who is also a professor at Peking University, said the government must take steps to tackle supply-side strains that have been a key factor pushing consumer prices.

Loose monetary policy in 2009 has created excessive liquidity and helped fuel prices of various products, he said.

"Much liquidity and fewer goods are the reasons behind inflation. Raising interest rates cannot change such a situation," he was quoted by the China Securities Journal as saying.

Zhou warned that liquidity had been channeled from the real estate market to other sectors of the economy, after Beijing took harsh measures to prevent a property bubble.

China's CPI hit a 25-month high of 4.4 percent in October, fuelling expectations of further tightening measures.

The PBOC has ramped up its efforts to tighten monetary conditions in the past month, increasing bank reserve requirements and surprising markets on Oct 19 by announcing the first rate rise in nearly three years.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/18/content_11570306.htm

Related readings
: Gold drops on China interest rate hike rumor, stronger dollar
 Stocks down on mainland rate worries
 Rising food costs boost China's inflation rate to 25-month high
 Oct consumer confidence falls due to inflation, rate hike

Rise of the middle class

Rise of the middle class
By Tang Jun (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-11-18 15:12

Society will be more stable when one third of the Chinese population has material means to become social backbone

Many scholars and individuals are showing concern about what kind of social structure will bring the best stability.

According to sociological theories, a modern society can be divided into four ranks: the wealthy, the middle class, labor and the disadvantaged. The middle class creates the ladder between the well-to-do and the poverty-stricken, thus easing the antagonism between them, by granting those at the bottom the hope of rising to a higher level.

Generally speaking, in a modern society, the middle class contains 60 to 70 percent of the population, leaving about 15 to 20 percent at either end of the ladder. Such a large middle class ensures stability for a society.

How do we define the middle class? There are three standards: material wealth, job status and self-identity.

Concerning material wealth, a middle income, sufficient to maintain a comfortable but not luxurious lifestyle, is the first pursuit of the middle class. In the present social situations, a typical middle-class family tends to own a car and a house, together with certain financial products.

The xiaokang (literally moderate prosperity) standard introduced by the government is essentially the Chinese version of the middle class. Sufficient wealth accumulation is the first prerequisite to be xiaokang.

Job status is another essential. In this society, a salary is still the most important income source for most individuals; therefore a stable job is the pursuit.

With the rise of knowledge capital, intellectuals and technicians are taking more pride in gaining a position through their knowledge or technical skills.

Self-identity is also indispensable. Being middle class means having access to a decent and relatively comfortable life and having the will to strive forward. This is beneficial to both the people and society.

During the past 30 years, a middle class has come into being in China. According to Professor Lu Xueyi of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 23 percent of the population belong to the middle class; five years ago it was 18 percent. He estimates that the number will increase by 1 percent every year. If that growth rate can be maintained the middle class could reach 40 percent of the population by 2020.

However, that will not be achieved without problems. Ever since reform and opening-up in late 1970s, our changes in social structure have lagged 15 years behind economic development; that's the origin of many of our social problems.

The middle class, with a strong sense of social responsibility, should be the backbone of society. The awareness of being a responsible citizen offers strong support for society. However, the middle class in China is still immature in this respect and society needs them to meet their social obligations.

Of course, the rise of the middle class in any society is in dire need of rational support from the government. On their road to industrialization and modernization, many developed countries offered support or subsidy to blue-collar workers, helping them to own and accumulate capital. After World War II, many countries also used the policy "houses for residents", which proved very successful.

Owning a house has long been considered a prerequisite of entering the middle class, and when more and more people find it hard to reach this standard, it is impossible for them to remain silent.

The present tendency of economic growth is unfriendly to many people, especially to the supporting pillar of industry - migrant workers, whose number has reached 200 million. We hope the "inclusive growth" in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) will solve these problems.

Three decades ago, Deng Xiaoping said: "Let one part of the people get rich first." Today might we make a similar statement for the 12th Five-Year Plan period - let one third of the Chinese people become middle class first.

The author is a researcher and secretary general of the Social Policy Research Center of the China Academy of Social Sciences.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/18/content_11571957.htm


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 Enigma of the middle class

Coastal Contracts Bhd

Date announced 19/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK COASTAL C0DE  5071

Price $ 2.32 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 4.22 Curr. DY 1.29%
LFY Div 3.00 DPO ratio 7%
ROE 36.4% PBT Margin 27.9% PAT Margin 27.9%

Rec. qRev 192091 q-q % chg 39% y-y% chq 37%
Rec qPbt 53601 q-q % chg 10% y-y% chq 11%
Rec. qEps 14.80 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 11%
ttm-Eps 55.04 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 40%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 2% Avg.H PE 5.00 Avg. L PE 4.00
Forecast High Pr 3.04 Forecast Low Pr 1.90 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.90
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 63% Downside 37%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 0.94 P/NTA 1.53 NTA 1.51 SPE 4.50 Rational Pr 2.48



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

----

Prospects

Given that offshore shipbuilding activity is slowly perking up, Coastal Group has modest optimism of clinching new contracts to add to its vessel sales order book. The Group also expects steady income stream from its ship chartering division through continued utilisation of the Group’s fleet in coastal transportation and in various oil and gas support services. It is anticipated that future participation in the offshore structure fabrication business will be earnings-accretive and reduce the Group’s dependency on shipbuilding orders. The Group’s strong financial footing paired with low level of borrowings will further shield it from major financial distress.

With more deepwater oilfield developments off the western coast of Sabah coming on stream, Coastal Group is looking to enter a new phase of growth by diversifying into offshore structure fabrication to gain industry knowledge of the oil and gas engineering, procurement and construction business. Central to this plan are the Group’s strong foundation in marine structures and the geographical proximity of the Group’s 52-acre fabrication yard to the heart of Sabah’s growing oil and gas activities. Upgrading of infrastructure is currently at advanced stage to expand the fabrication yard’s capabilities.

Oil prices have risen above USD85 a barrel as improvement in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, boosted optimism that growth in global oil consumption will remain strong. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing to unleash more dollar into the economy had weakened the U.S currency’s value, which in turn made the dollar-denominated crude oil relatively cheaper for buyers using other currencies. This latest oil price development in the current environment of depleting oil reserves and increasing long-term energy demand will drive up offshore exploration, development and production activities going forward. The resultant capital investments in upstream oil and gas sector would spur additional requirements for offshore support vessels (“OSVs”).

Barring adverse changes in the global and regional economic outlook, Coastal Group is on track to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth in 2010, backed by the strong revenue visibility of the shipbuilding division’s vessel sales order book.

The Mood of Investors

Airtime: Fri. Nov. 19 2010
Sharon Sager of UBS Private Wealth Management tells CNBC's Maria Bartiromo how she's developing strategies for clients who have become more conservative.


Related:
Why Retail Investors Still Avoid Stocks

INVESTING November 14, 2010, 9:18PM EST

Why Retail Investors Still Avoid Stocks

Major U.S. stock indexes have returned 80% or more since their 2009 lows, but individual investors remain wary. Investor psychology expert Brad Barber discusses why

Even as U.S. stocks trade at some of their highest prices in two years, individual investors continue to sell, leaving the buying to larger players like hedge funds and other institutions. A Nov. 10 Morningstar (MORN) report showed in October another $6.3 billion was pulled from U.S. stock mutual funds, which are used mostly by smaller, retail investors.

A leading expert on investor psychology, Brad Barber is a finance professor at the University of California, Davis, and head of the university's Center for Investor Welfare & Corporate Responsibility. In a Nov. 9 interview with Businessweek.com's Ben Steverman, Barber talked about how he interprets retail investors' reaction to the current rally. Edited excerpts of their conversation follow:

Ben Steverman: Even though the stock market is up, retail investors seem to be sitting on the sidelines. According to Morningstar, investors have pulled $64.2 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds so far this year through October, even after withdrawing $26 billion last year. When might that change?
Brad Barber: My sense is that sentiment for equities isn't going to get positive until the economy is on strong footing. Even though the market has come back, it hasn't really been accompanied by robust economic growth. That can to some degree explain why retail investors remain skittish. The back story of the returns has just not been strong for the last year or two.

By "back story," you're not really talking about the condition of the economy, but the stories that are told in the media about the state of the economy?
Yes, and it's that back story that I think would need to improve to see renewed excitement and participation by retail investors.

Do you think investor behavior is different this time, compared with market rallies after previous recessions?
The more recent crisis certainly feels different. Unemployment rates have been much higher for much longer. The talk on the news is constantly about the weakness in the economy. The Internet bubble bursting in 2000 was a dramatic event, but it was not accompanied by the magnitude of economic dislocation that followed this financial crisis. Losing your job is different from losing a lot of your retirement portfolio.

Does the behavior of these small retail investors have a real effect on the market? Or are they such a small part of the investment pool—alongside hedge funds, pension funds, and other large institutions—that they don't have much impact?
It is true that retail investors directly hold very little stock, under 20 percent [of total shares] these days. There's been a secular shift toward institutions holding investments on behalf of individuals. Having said that, sentiment can also affect institutions to some degree. Direct ownership of stocks by retail investors isn't a big [driver], but it's a good instrument for thinking about the sentiment of the market as a whole.

What is the track record of smaller investors? Do they tend to buy and sell at the right times?
The order flow of small investors perversely forecasts returns. What I mean by that is: If small investors seem to be buying a stock, it tends to forecast poor returns for the stock. Conversely, if small retail investors are selling a stock, it tends to portend strong returns for the stock.

For example, people might become enamored with the latest high-tech startup firms. Retail investors pile in, driving the prices up, but the reality is these companies aren't making earnings. Later, there's a day of reckoning. Conversely, you might have really stodgy, old-line companies, about which retail sentiment is pretty negative. But they're plugging along and posting reasonable earnings. The lack of retail sentiment for those stocks may beat down their prices temporarily, and those low prices would portend strong returns as long as they have earnings to back up the company.

So, sentiment causes fluctuations in prices above or below some level justified by the underlying fundamentals of the company.

Given all the losses investors have experienced, do you expect that Americans are going to permanently change the role stocks play in their portfolios?
There is a lot of evidence that people's attitudes about their portfolios change as a function of market conditions. There is a nice paper by Ulrike Malmendier [an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley] and Stefan Nagel [a finance professor at Stanford University] looking at how investors allocate stocks in their retirement portfolios.

If you lived through the Great Depression, you're less likely to invest in stocks because you stomached a 15-year period where stocks basically had a zero return. Conversely, if you experienced stocks during the late '80s and '90s—pretty much an unrelenting bull market—you probably were bullish on stocks and tend to have a high allocation of stocks in your investment portfolio. The last decade, of course, has been pretty lousy. And so investors who were saving and coming of age in the last decade are probably going to have lower allocations to stock in their retirement portfolios. The punch line is "experience matters."

So relatively short-term market conditions tend to affect long-term investment decisions. People who came of age in this decade might be permanently much less likely to own stocks?
Or at least have a lower allocation to stocks. In the late 1990s, when I was teaching MBA students, it was hard to convince students that if you held stocks for 10 years that you had any risk of loss. That's not so hard anymore. [Laughter.] The example that I used to try to hammer home this point was Japan, which in the late 1990s had been mired in a 10-year crash. Now it's 25 years and counting.

To what extent is this reluctance to buy stocks rational behavior on the part of investors? And to what extent is it irrational, because investors miss out on stock gains and then, when sentiment finally turns positive again, might end up buying at the top of the market?
It's very difficult for people to understand their ability to tolerate risk until they experience it. It's all well and good to say "I can tolerate the gyrations of the markets." You can sit down with a financial adviser or you can go through online tutorials, but you don't understand until you actually live through it.

Folks go through these times where their portfolios are dropping 30, 40, and even 50 percent, and it causes them to lose sleep. Is it irrational to dial down your equity allocation when it's affecting your sleep and health? I don't think so.

Is it what most economists would recommend investors do? Probably not.

As someone who studies investor behavior, are there questions raised in the last couple of years that you're eager to answer?
The most pressing issue is how investors save and prepare for retirement. This will become even more pressing as we think about solutions to the underfunding of Social Security benefits.

There are a lot of folks doing work on these issues now: How can we get people to save adequately for retirement or make sensible investment choices?

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2010/pi20101112_224434.htm

APM

Date announced 18/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 12/31/2010

STOCK APM C0DE  5015 

Price $ 5.3 Curr. ttm-PE 8.67 Curr. DY 3.02%
LFY Div 16.00 DPO ratio 43%
ROE 16.9% PBT Margin 16.3% PAT Margin 10.9%

Rec. qRev 291477 q-q % chg -7% y-y% chq 19%
Rec qPbt 47524 q-q % chg -12% y-y% chq 57%
Rec. qEps 16.18 q-q % chg -13% y-y% chq 65%
ttm-Eps 61.10 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 131%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 8.00 Avg. L PE 6.00
Forecast High Pr 6.24 Forecast Low Pr 3.61 Recent Severe Low Pr 3.61
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 36% Downside 64%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.24 P/NTA 1.47 NTA 3.61 SPE 7.00 Rational Pr 4.28



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

----

APM Automotive records higher Q3 profit
Published: 2010/11/18


APM Automotive Holdings Bhd reported a pre-tax profit of RM47.524 million for the third quarter-ended Sept 30, 2010, up 57.3 per cent from RM30.219 million in the same period last year.

The profit was achieved over an 18.6 per cent increase in revenue to RM291.477 million against RM245.746 million previously.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, the company said its Malaysian operations registered a 17 per cent increase in revenue on the back of higher vehicle production while its overseas revenue rose 39.2 per cent, contributed mainly by its Indonesian operations.

The company expects to maintain its current level of business for the remaining quarter and is optimistic that it will perform well for the whole year. -- Bernama



Read more: APM Automotive records higher Q3 profit http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20101118204734/Article/index_html#ixzz15dcIIHIx

Kossan

Date announced 18/11/2010
Quarter 30/12/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Kossan C0DE  7153 

Price $ 3.21 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 9.09 Curr. DY 0.80%
LFY Div 2.57 DPO ratio 12%
ROE 27.0% PBT Margin 13.8% PAT Margin 10.4%

Rec. qRev 275635 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 31%
Rec qPbt 38108 q-q % chg 5% y-y% chq 83%
Rec. qEps 8.93 q-q % chg -5% y-y% chq 86%
ttm-Eps 35.32 q-q % chg 13% y-y% chq 92%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 8.00 Avg. L PE 5.00
Forecast High Pr 3.61 Forecast Low Pr 2.45 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.45
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

 RISK: Upside 34% Downside 66%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 2%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 4%

CPE/SPE 1.40 P/NTA 2.45 NTA 1.31 SPE 6.50 Rational Pr 2.30



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

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Kossan Q3 profit jumps on unit expansion
Published: 2010/11/18

Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd's pre-tax profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 jumped to RM38 million from RM21 million in same quarter of 2009.

Revenue increased to RM276 million from RM210 million previously.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia today, it said the better results were due to the expansion in the gloves division with better product mix and margin.

"The other contributor was the higher selling price in line with the increased in raw materials, it said.

Going forward, Kossan Rubber said, it was cautiously optimistic in the remaining quarter of the financial year, with demand for gloves expected to remain strong. -- Bernama


Read more: Kossan Q3 profit jumps on unit expansion http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20101118200243/Article/index_html#ixzz15ddHVyy3

IOI Corporation Berhad

Date announced 18/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011

STOCK IOICorp C0DE  1961 

Price $ 5.9 Curr. ttm-PE 18.05 Curr. DY 2.88%
LFY Div 17.00 DPO ratio 52%
ROE 19.8% PBT Margin 18.8% PAT Margin 14.2%

Rec. qRev 3519260 q-q % chg 15% y-y% chq 7%
Rec qPbt 661746 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 6%
Rec. qEps 7.81 q-q % chg -9% y-y% chq -2%
ttm-Eps 32.69 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 66%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 17.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 7.09 Forecast Low Pr 5.31 Recent Severe Low Pr 5.31
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 67% Downside 33%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.29 P/NTA 3.58 NTA 1.65 SPE 14.00 Rational Pr 4.58



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


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Published: Thursday November 18, 2010 MYT 1:29:00 PM

IOI Corp 1Q net profit up RM19.7 million

PETALING JAYA: IOI Corp Bhd saw its first quarter net profit increase by 4.13% to RM498.13 million from a year ago while pre-tax profit was 6% higher at RM661.7 million due to higher profits from its plantation unit and higher unrealised translation gain on foreign currency denominated borrowings.

The company told Bursa Malaysia on Thursday that it expects satisfactory performance for its present fiscal year due to strong crude palm oil (CPO) prices and a resilient property market.

For the three-month period ended September 30 2010, the plantation segment recorded a 38% gain in operating profit to RM345.3million from a year ago due to higher CPO prices realised and a marginal increase in fresh fruit bunches production.

Average CPO price realised for the first quarter was RM2,598/MT compared to RM2,294/MT from the previous corresponding period.

IOI Corp's first quarter revenue grew by 7.4% to RM3.52 billion.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/18/business/20101118133526&sec=business

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IOI Corp 1QFY2011 net profit up 4.12% to RM498.13m
Written by Surin Murugiah
Thursday, 18 November 2010 13:36

KUALA LUMPUR: IOI CORPORATION BHD [] net profit for the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 rose 4.12% to RM498.13 million from RM478.38 million a year ago, due mainly to higher profit contribution from the PLANTATION [] segment and higher unrealised translation gain on foreign currency denominated borrowings.

The company recorded revenue RM3.52 billion for the quarter, compared to RM3.26 billion last year. Earnings per share was 7.81 sen, while net assets per share was RM1.65.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Thursday, Nov 18, IOI Corp said the plantation segment reported a 38% increase in operating profit to RM345.3 million for Q1FY2011 as compared to RM249.8 million for Q1 FY2010.

The higher profit was due mainly to higher CPO prices realised as well as a marginal increase in FFB production, it said.

Average CPO price realised for Q1 FY2011 is RM2,598/MT compared to RM2,294/MT for Q1 FY2010, it said, IOI Corp said its property development and investment segment’s operating profit of RM160.3 million for Q1 FY2011 was in line with Q1 FY2010.

The resource-based manufacturing segment’s operating profit decreased from RM158.9 million in Q1FY2010 to RM40.4 million in Q1 FY2011 due mainly to lower volume and margins and fair value losses on the adoption of FRS 139, it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177288-ioi-corp-1qfy2011-net-profit-up-412-to-rm49813m.html

Chinese shares continue to drop over tightening policy concerns

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-11-17 15:57

BEIJING - Chinese equities continued to drop for a second day in a row Wednesday as investors feared prospects of higher interest rates and inflation control policies would hurt earnings.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 1.92 percent, or 55.68 points, to close at 2,838.86.

The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.45 percent, or 299.78 points, to end at 11,917.49.

Combined turnover shrank to 288.4 billion yuan from 398.13 billion yuan the previous trading day.