UMW Holdings Berhad

Date announced 22/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK UMW C0DE  4588 

Price $ 6.8 Curr. ttm-PE 12.89 Curr. DY 2.94%
LFY Div 20.00 DPO ratio 59%
ROE 14.7% PBT Margin 11.0% PAT Margin 4.8%

Rec. qRev 3087276 q-q % chg -6% y-y% chq 10%
Rec qPbt 340922 q-q % chg -23% y-y% chq 18%
Rec. qEps 13.17 q-q % chg -30% y-y% chq 15%
ttm-Eps 52.76 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 49%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 8.00
Forecast High Pr 8.08 Forecast Low Pr 5.50 Recent Severe Low Pr 5.50
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 50% Downside 50%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.29 P/NTA 1.89 NTA 3.59 SPE 10.00 Rational Pr 5.28



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr