Date announced 30/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/12/2010
STOCK KPJ C0DE 5878
Price $ 3.73 Curr. ttm-PE 17.50 Curr. DY 2.14%
LFY Div 8.00 DPO ratio 41%
ROE 16.4% PBT Margin 10.1% PAT Margin 7.1%
Rec. qRev 410237 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 41305 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 15%
Rec. qEps 5.54 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 16%
ttm-Eps 21.32 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 32%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 3.26 Forecast Low Pr 2.67 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.67
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside -78% Downside 178%
One Year Appreciation Potential -2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 0%
CPE/SPE 1.67 P/NTA 2.87 NTA 1.30 SPE 10.50 Rational Pr 2.24
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
2 comments:
hi,nice sharing. But why say Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone? What price is within the valuation zone? Million hanks for reply first.
Valuation is NOT an exact science. There are rooms for error. Depending on the criterias you use, you will get a different value.
The important point is to be conservative in your valuation. This is to protect your downside and hopefully, also improve your upside should you like the stock.
For KPJ, my simple programme showed the followings:
ZONING
Present Market Price of 3.73 is in the Upper 1/3 Range
Forecast High Price 3.26
Forecast Low Price 2.67
Upper 1/3 = 3.07 to 3.26 (Sell)
Middle 1/3 = 2.87 to 3.07 (Maybe)
Lower 1/3 = 2.67 to 2.87 (Buy)
These figures are ONLY A GUIDE. One can then modify one's decision appropriately.
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