Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Thursday 25 November 2010
Petronas Dagangan
Date announced 25/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/03/2011
STOCK PETDAG C0DE 5681
Price $ 11.1 Curr. ttm-PE 14.64 Curr. DY 5.41%
LFY Div 60.00 DPO ratio 79%
ROE 16.3% PBT Margin 5.2% PAT Margin 3.7%
Rec. qRev 5496313 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 7%
Rec qPbt 284250 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
Rec. qEps 20.70 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
ttm-Eps 75.80 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 21%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 12.58 Forecast Low Pr 8.66 Recent Severe Low Pr 8.66
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 38% Downside 62%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%
CPE/SPE 1.33 P/NTA 2.38 NTA 4.66 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 8.34
The Board has declared an Interim Dividend of 30 sen per share less tax at 25% and Special Interim Dividend of 10 sen per share less tax at 25%.
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 11.20
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 2.9% 13 Weeks 1.8%
4 Weeks 9.2% 52 Weeks 27.4%
Petronas Dagangan Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: PETD Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Oil, Gas, Coal & Related Services
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Oil, Gas & Coal
2010 Sales 20,687,042,000
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
Employees: 1,311
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 11,126,684,800
Fiscal Yr Ends: March Shares Outstanding: 993,454,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 762,064,700
Day's Range: 10.90 - 11.12
52wk Range: 8.50 - 11.90
Volume: 648,500
Avg Vol (3m): 228,805
6 months ended 30/09/2010
Cash Flow Statement
CFO 1,010.770 m
CFI (151.474 m)
CFF (335.291 m)
Net Increase in Cash & Eq 524.005 m
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