Banking sector: Valuations are undemanding
Written by Financial Daily
Tuesday, 08 March 2011 11:28
Banking sector
Maintain overweight:
The sector’s value proposition lies in (i) stable economic growth which lends support to our aggregate net profit growth forecast of 11.6% for 2011 and 11.8% for 2012; (ii) benign inflation and bottoming margins; (iii) steady loan growth momentum; (iv) potential Economic Transformation Programme upside surprises; (v) cross-synergies and burgeoning contribution from regional operations to group earnings; (vi) healthy capital ratios; and (vii) decent valuations and dividend yields. RHB Capital and CIMB continue to be our top picks.
Results were broadly within expectations, with recurring net profit up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y). While cumulative loan growth was a commendable 12.9% y-o-y, net interest margin (NIM) compression during the period contributed to a more moderate 10.3% y-o-y expansion in net interest income, while fee income and other non-interest income growth rates were a modest 6.8% y-o-y respectively. Operating expenses, meanwhile, rose 10.1% y-o-y. Consequently, operating profit rose by a slower 11% y-o-y, while the jump in net profit was driven primarily by lower loan loss provisions, which fell a sizeable 34.5% y-o-y in 2010.
Our industry loan growth estimate is raised to 11.5% for 2011 from 10%-11% previously and we forecast 2012 loan growth at 10.5%. We expect household loan demand to moderate from 13.2% for 2010 to about 10.5% for 2011 and 8% for 2012, but expect non-household (business/government) lending to pick up the slack with growth rates of 12.7% and 13.5% for 2011 and 2012 respectively, from 12.3% for 2010.
We project recurring net profit growth of 11.6% and 11.8% for 2011 and 2012 respectively for the top 5 banks, on operating profit growth of 8.6% for 2011 and 12.4% for 2012. We expect cumulative loans (domestic and regional) for the top 5 banks to expand by 12% for 2011, 10.9% for 2012. While we have imputed a 6-11 basis points NIM contraction this year, we expect NIMs to bottom out and recover in 2012, aided in part by likely rate hikes in 2H10. Amid volatility in the external environment, we are factoring in moderately higher non-performing loans.
Valuations are undemanding, in our opinion, with the large banks trading at a prospective 2011 calendarised PER of 13.1 times, 11.7 times for 2012. Separately, the sector trades at a prospective 2012 P/BV of 1.9 times supported by an average ROE of 16.9%. Dividend yields, meanwhile, average a decent 4.2% and 4.7% for 2011 and 2012 respectively. — Maybank IB Research, March 7
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 8, 2011.
Written by Financial Daily
Tuesday, 08 March 2011 11:28
Banking sector
Maintain overweight:
The sector’s value proposition lies in (i) stable economic growth which lends support to our aggregate net profit growth forecast of 11.6% for 2011 and 11.8% for 2012; (ii) benign inflation and bottoming margins; (iii) steady loan growth momentum; (iv) potential Economic Transformation Programme upside surprises; (v) cross-synergies and burgeoning contribution from regional operations to group earnings; (vi) healthy capital ratios; and (vii) decent valuations and dividend yields. RHB Capital and CIMB continue to be our top picks.
Results were broadly within expectations, with recurring net profit up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y). While cumulative loan growth was a commendable 12.9% y-o-y, net interest margin (NIM) compression during the period contributed to a more moderate 10.3% y-o-y expansion in net interest income, while fee income and other non-interest income growth rates were a modest 6.8% y-o-y respectively. Operating expenses, meanwhile, rose 10.1% y-o-y. Consequently, operating profit rose by a slower 11% y-o-y, while the jump in net profit was driven primarily by lower loan loss provisions, which fell a sizeable 34.5% y-o-y in 2010.
Our industry loan growth estimate is raised to 11.5% for 2011 from 10%-11% previously and we forecast 2012 loan growth at 10.5%. We expect household loan demand to moderate from 13.2% for 2010 to about 10.5% for 2011 and 8% for 2012, but expect non-household (business/government) lending to pick up the slack with growth rates of 12.7% and 13.5% for 2011 and 2012 respectively, from 12.3% for 2010.
We project recurring net profit growth of 11.6% and 11.8% for 2011 and 2012 respectively for the top 5 banks, on operating profit growth of 8.6% for 2011 and 12.4% for 2012. We expect cumulative loans (domestic and regional) for the top 5 banks to expand by 12% for 2011, 10.9% for 2012. While we have imputed a 6-11 basis points NIM contraction this year, we expect NIMs to bottom out and recover in 2012, aided in part by likely rate hikes in 2H10. Amid volatility in the external environment, we are factoring in moderately higher non-performing loans.
Valuations are undemanding, in our opinion, with the large banks trading at a prospective 2011 calendarised PER of 13.1 times, 11.7 times for 2012. Separately, the sector trades at a prospective 2012 P/BV of 1.9 times supported by an average ROE of 16.9%. Dividend yields, meanwhile, average a decent 4.2% and 4.7% for 2011 and 2012 respectively. — Maybank IB Research, March 7
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 8, 2011.
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