myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday, 30 November 2010

Integrax co-CEO says buyout can clear row

Tuesday November 30, 2010

Integrax co-CEO says buyout can clear row

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Integrax Bhd co-chief executive officer Harun Halim Rasip says the company's fallout with Taipan Merit Sdn Bhd may be solved if one of them buys the other out of Lumut Maritime Terminal Sdn Bhd (LMT).

Taipan Merit, a Perak state-owned enterprise under Perak Corp Bhd, had recently terminated the shareholders agreement with Integrax for LMT, a port-operating unit of Integrax.

It was set out under the agreement that Integrax had the right to nominate the CEO of LMT to be approved by the LMT board.

The agreement also provides for reserved matters which effectively makes LMT a 50:50 joint venture where both shareholders have to be in agreement although Taipan Merit holds 50% plus one share in LMT.

Integrax found the termination unacceptable and a breach of the agreement. Thus it filed a notification of arbitration and made an offer to buy out Taipan Merit on Nov 10.

Integrax also filed an originating summons to Perak Corp, Taipan Merit and the other Integrax co-CEO, Amin Halim Rasip, amongst others.

We are unable to offer the buy-out now until the arbitration stage and I am willing to pay a lot of money for it. We are also going for the injunction because we want to put somebody independent to run the company, protect our shares in LMT and make sure the money is not being dissipated inappropriately.

If it (Taipan Merit) is professional enough, it should offer to be bought out, he told a press briefing yesterday.

Harun said the problem with Taipan Merit started before the Vale International SA contract came into the picture. Harun and Amin, both major shareholders of Integrax, have been feuding over the matter with the latter and Taipan Merit in favour of the tie-up with Vale.

But the problem with Taipan Merit has some impact on the Vale matter. Now, as the transhipment services agreement with Vale had lapsed on Oct 19, we're just going to step back, Harun said.

All the noise for the Vale contract has no merit as it has problems to reflect stable financial return. Also, we do not want to be investing RM250mil to RM300mil while the relationship with our partner is on the rocks.

Harun added that the Vale contract required high capital expenditure where the minimum annual throughput from the project would not generate enough income to meet Integrax's minimum project hurdle rate of return.

It will result in asset yield destruction, he said.

The port signed an agreement with Vale on Dec 29, 2009 which allowed Integrax to expand existing facilities at the Lekir Bulk Terminal (LBT), one of two terminals in which Integrax has stakes in, to comply with the LBT's requirements over a 10-year period.

Meanwhile, Vale bought 166ha for almost RM102mil in cash from KYM Holdings Bhd and its 54%-owned subsidiary, Harta Makmur Sdn Bhd, in early January with an option to acquire an additional 306ha for RM93.8mil in cash.

Going forward, Harun said Integrax would be tapping into Indonesia's booming economy to expand its port operations. Integrax holds a 70% stake in PT Indoexchange Tbk, a public-listed Indonesian company.

Indonesia's vast economic potential is hampered by poor infrastructure, including ports. And supported by hastening of de-regulation process in the port industry, Integrax is ready to fill this gap and has committed to the state-owned enterprise to undertake the operations and management of an established port in Sumatra, amongst other potential projects there.

It is estimated that the expansion plan in Indonesia will cost about US$150mil, he said.

As for LMT and LBT, Harun said negotiations were under way to deal with additional coal-handling needs which would serve the expansion of Tenaga Nasional Bhd's Janamanjung power plant at LBT.

Meanwhile, Perak Corp, in a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, said Taipan Merit had, on Nov 26, acquired 20 million ordinary shares of RM1 each in Integrax, representing 6.65% of the issued and paid-up capital of Integrax, for about RM30.05mil cash.

In a separate filing, Integrax said PT Indoexchange had announced to Bursa Efek Indonesia and had made the obligatory disclosure that it had received a notice of termination of share-sale agreement dated June 13, 2008 from one of three vendors of shares in PT Alkatara.

PT Indoexchange is taking the necessary legal actions against the vendors.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/30/business/7522289&sec=business

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday, 30 November 2010

Integrax co-CEO says buyout can clear row

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

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