Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Wednesday, 17 November 2010
Guan Chong Berhad
Date announced 16/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010
STOCK Guanchg C0DE 5102
Price $ 1.78 Curr. ttm-PE 6.71 Curr. DY 1.83%
LFY Div 3.25 DPO ratio 54%
ROE 43.8% PBT Margin 9.1% PAT Margin 6.0%
Rec. qRev 296563 q-q % chg 10% y-y% chq 83%
Rec qPbt 27002 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 264%
Rec. qEps 7.44 q-q % chg -8% y-y% chq 246%
ttm-Eps 26.54 q-q % chg 25% y-y% chq 699%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 6.00 Avg. L PE 5.00
Forecast High Pr 2.03 Forecast Low Pr 0.45 Recent Severe Low Pr 0.45
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 16% Downside 84%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 10%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 13%
CPE/SPE 1.22 P/NTA 2.94 NTA 0.61 SPE 5.50 Rational Pr 1.46
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
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