Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Monday 29 November 2010
Dutch Lady Milk Industries Berhad
Date announced 29/11/2010
Quarter 30/9/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010
STOCK DLADY C0DE 3026
Price $ 17.9 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 16.58 Curr. DY 3.67%
LFY Div 65.63 DPO ratio 70%
ROE 33.0% PBT Margin 10.9% PAT Margin 7.1%
Rec. qRev 186715 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 20332 q-q % chg -20% y-y% chq -25%
Rec. qEps 20.82 q-q % chg -30% y-y% chq -34%
ttm-Eps 107.98 q-q % chg -9% y-y% chq 19%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 16.00 Avg. L PE 14.00
Forecast High Pr 22.05 Forecast Low Pr 11.86 Recent Severe Low Pr 11.86
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 41% Downside 59%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 5%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%
CPE/SPE 1.11 P/NTA 5.47 NTA 3.27 SPE 15.00 Rational Pr 16.20
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 17.88
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 0.7% 13 Weeks -1.4%
4 Weeks 22.1% 52 Weeks 54.1%
Dutch Lady Milk Industries Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: DBMS Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Food & Beverages
Sub Industry: Dairy Products
2009 Sales 691,847,000
(Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 570
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 1,144,320,000
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 64,000,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 46,418,300
Day's Range: 17.60 - 17.90
52wk Range: 11.30 - 20.10
Volume: 3,600
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