Friday 9 December 2011

Central banks top up gold reserves

Central banks have used gold's recent plunge to top up their holdings of the precious metal.

Central banks have used gold's recent plunge to top up their holdings of the precious metal.
The International Monetary Fund has been selling gold to boost its war chest for lending. Sales stopped in December last year. 
Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Thailand spent a collective $1.52bn (£942m) buying 26.7 tons of gold. However, the Mexican central bank was a seller, reducing its holding by 0.1 ton, according to data compiled byBloomberg.
Thailand's gold reserves rose 11pc to 152.41 tons and Bolivia's bullion reserves increased 17pc to 49.34 tons. Bolivia increased its holdings by 5pc to tons and Tajikistan's bullion stockpile increased 26pc to 4.74 tons.
Over the past 20 years, central banks have been reducing their holdings of the precious metal, but concerns about paper money and global debt has turned them into net buyers. Also, the gold price has increased every year for the past 11 years. The price is up 23pc in the year to date, closing at $1,743.75 an ounce on Friday.
"Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been diversifying their gold reserves," said Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch . "We would expect this to continue as gold can have a positive impact on smoothing the risk-return profile of reserve portfolios."
The International Monetary Fund has been selling gold to boost its war chest for lending. Sales stopped in December last year.

Copper enjoys biggest weekly gain on record

Ailing Copper has finally had some medicine, in the form of Europe agreeing a rescue package and positive data on the US economy.
The metal, a barometer of global economic health, had its biggest weekly gain on record, rallying 15pc in London. Goldman Sachs analysts said copper prices could be "unimaginably" high in three years on the back of Chinese growth. Still, the patient is not fully recovered at 20pc off its February peak, which signals a bear market.

UK savers warned as interest rates plummet 96pc in a year


Many of the best rates pay out for just a year – so make sure you switch in time.



Savers are kept in the dark over interest rates Photo: Howard McWilliam
Savers are being warned that best-buy savings rates can plummet by up to 96pc in the year after they open an account. The reason is bonus rates.
Bonus rates are one of the wheezes that banks and building societies use to get you to deposit your money in one of their accounts.
With Bank Rate at just 0.5pc and with little prospect of a rise soon, savers scratching around for a decent rate of return are easily tempted by interest rates of 3pc or more. But banks and building societies prey on savers' apathy, knowing full well that the majority won't switch again when any bonus rate disappears.
Such inertia will cost savers dear.
Take Bank of Scotland's Internet Saver account. It is currently paying 2.8pc, but this rate includes a whopping 2.7pc bonus. So at the end of 12 months the rate drops to just 0.1pc. A saver with £50,000 in this account would see their annual interest payment fall from £1,400 to a miserly £50.
Susan Hannums, a director of Savingschampion.co.uk, said: "Bank of Scotland is clearly banking on people's inertia, hoping that these savers will remain in the account receiving virtually nothing in interest after the 12-month bonus period. Savers simply don't need to stand for this, as not only can they get a better rate elsewhere, but they won't be left with such an appalling rate once the bonus period ends."
Research from Savingschampion.co.uk shows that two in three savings accounts today include a bonus in their headline rates. And these "teaser" rates are getting bigger: in January 2008 the average bonus was just 0.65pc, with the biggest at 1.24pc; today the market average stands at 1.66pc, while the biggest is the 2.7pc bonus offered by Bank of Scotland.
All the big high street players hook customers in with these bonus deals. For example, of the six variable-rate accounts offered by Halifax, five have a bonus or condition attached, while six out of nine such accounts from Santander do likewise.
But banks rarely make loyalty pay. Such practices show that they are more interested in attracting new money than paying a decent rate to customers who have banked with them for years.
Many of those who snapped up one of the best buys a year ago may be surprised to learn how little interest they are getting on their savings.
For instance, savers who opened the AA's Internet Extra (Issue 3) account in September last year would no doubt have been attracted by the competitive rate of 2.8pc. But one year on, these savers are getting just 0.5pc. Similarly, those who opened the BM Savings Telephone Extra account (Issue 3) will find the interest rate dropping from 2.6pc to just 0.5pc.
Ms Hannums said these examples should serve as a warning to income-starved savers currently scouring the best buy tables. By all means take advantage of these short-term deals, but make sure you switch your money again at the end of the term. She added: "Savers cannot afford to rest on their laurels. Once the bonus falls away, interest simply disappears."
Unfortunately, most savers do rest on their laurels. And not surprisingly banks and building societies aren't too forward when it comes to pointing out what dismal rates of interest customers are now being paid. Most banks still do not include interest rates on annual statements and neither are they displayed when the customer logs in to online banking.
Even searching online for a list of up-to-date rates can be tricky, particularly once the account is no longer on sale. David Black of statisticians Defaqto said providers should make it clear that an account has an introductory bonus when it is advertised and notify the customer when the bonus is about to end. Yet many savers remain uninformed.
"For the saver, this means they need to review their accounts on a regular basis if they want to secure the best returns," he said. "If you've had a variable-rate account for over a year it's a near certainty that you could get a better rate from a similar account elsewhere."
Savers have also been warned to check the small print and watch out for the early withdrawal trap. For example, Manchester Building Society pays 3.16pc on its Premier Notice account. But this allows just four withdrawals a year, and you must give 35 days' notice each time. This rate also includes a 1.5pc bonus.
Research from Moneysupermarket.com found that despite the disparity in interest rates between new accounts and older ones, only one in three people checks the interest rate on their savings account each month, while more than 10pc could not remember the last time they checked their rate. Almost 9pc admitted to never having checked.
But while it may be difficult to check what rate is paid on old accounts, finding the most competitive new deals could not be easier. The most straightforward way to compare savings products is through a comparison site such as Savingschampion.co.uk, Moneyfacts.co.uk or Moneynet.co.uk.
Current best buys include Coventry Building Society, which pays 3.15pc for easy-access savings, and Santander's eSaver Issue 4, which pays 3.1pc. These rates include bonuses of 1.15pc and 2.6pc respectively, paid for a year – so put that date in your diary.
For those who do not mind locking up their savings, Yorkshire Bank's two-year fixed-rate bond pays 4.01pc on minimum deposits of £2,000, while Bank of Ireland's Web Bond Issue 4 pays 3.9pc on deposits of more than £500. For longer-term savers, Kent Reliance Building Society's 5-year Fixed-Rate Bond Issue 5 pays 4.7pc on £1,000 or more.
Kevin Mountford of Moneysupermarket.com said: "Bonuses are a great way for consumers to maximise the return on their savings in this low-rate environment. However, the benefits can soon be wiped out if customers forget to switch once the promotional period has expired."
The message is clear: when it comes to our banks and building societies, you get scant reward for being loyal. Take the bonus by all means but get ready to run to another account when its time is up.


UK housing sales surge but house prices remain ‘25pc too expensive’


The number of homes sold surged up by 4.5pc last month, helped by frozen interest rates and the "loosest mortgage lending conditions seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse" but Britain’s biggest building society warns that house prices remain 25pc more expensive than the historic norm.
First time buyers and buy-to-let landlords found it easier to obtain mortgages as loans for home purchases reached their highest number since December 2009 in November, according to the latest mortgage monitor from e.surv chartered surveyors.
Richard Sexton, director of e.surv, claimed the firm had completed more than 1m mortgage valuations over the last five years to compile its data. He said: “The market is thus far showing resilience in the face of the eurozone crisis. For the last few months, the banks have been focusing their lending on buy-to-let investors, but this is the first time they appear to have increased lending to first time buyers.
“This has resulted in the loosest mortgage lending conditions seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse. More first time buyers are rolling up their sleeves and piecing together the bigger deposits required to access high loan-to-value mortgages. No doubt they are sick of paying astronomically high rents.”
Estate agents LSL Property Services, owners of Your Move and Reeds Rains, claimed that sales surged by 4.5pc last month as frozen mortgage costs and house prices made property more affordable. Director David Newnes, said: “Static house prices don’t mean property values are standing still. Zero price growth means that in real terms property is becoming more affordable. With inflation running at 5pc, the real cost of property is getting smaller, which is good news for buyers.
“According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, mortgage lending increased 9.8pc in the year to October and has risen for the last three consecutive months for the first time since the summer of 2007, which has contributed to the 4.5pc rise in transactions seen last month, as purchasing becomes a more affordable.”
Similarly, Paul Broadhead, of the Building Societies Association, said: “Mutual lenders saw the biggest increase in gross lending since January 2010 with £2.3 billion of mortgage lending last month, 20pc up on the same time last year. More than one in five mortgages is to a first time buyer.
“Lending responsibly has never been more important as the market remains challenging with household incomes ever more squeezed. Mutual lenders are actively trying to help consumers both by conventional means and through new options like the Government’s shared ownership and equity loan schemes.”
But Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society, put seasonal good cheer in a sober long term perspective. He said: “House prices have remained surprisingly resilient over the past 12 months but housing still appears relatively expensive on a number of metrics. House prices are currently around five times average incomes, compared to the long-run average which is nearer four.
So house prices remain 25pc higher than their long-term price/earnings average. That looks unsustainable until you consider the imbalance between supply and demand. Fewer than 108,000 new homes were built in England over the last year, while an estimated 240,000 new households were created.
As a result, if mortgage costs remain low and lending criteria continue to ease, house prices could remain expensive. But bears or pessimists should beware expecting a correction any time soon. To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, the housing market might remain irrational for longer than sceptics can bear to remain in rented accommodation.

EU pension rules could hit millions of pensioners


Workplace pension schemes with over 12 million members could be forced to close if “destructive” new EU rules come into force, the Pensions Minister has warned.

Elderly couple wlaking on a bridge
Workplace pension schemes with over 12 million members could be forced to close if “destructive” new EU rules come into force, the Pensions Minister has warned. 
The European Commission is considering introducing rules that will make the UK's 6,850 companies with final salary pension schemes pump billions of pounds into the schemes to reduce their deficits. The rules are designed to make pension schemes in EU member states more financially robust.
However Steve Webb, the Pensions Minister, warned that the guidelines from Brussels will land British companies with a “huge bill” of £100 billion. He said the high cost would force many employers to close their pension schemes for good.
“What is being done in the name of protection could mean the destruction of some of the best British pensions,” he said.
The minister also said that if companies spent money plugging their pension deficits they would have less money to invest in growing their own businesses. The rules would therefore damage Britain’s economic recovery.
“These costs could force many employers to close their pension schemes and would have a massive negative impact on growth and our economic recovery. This is a £100bn tax on growth,” Mr Webb said at a meeting in Brussels, where he is building a coalition of European countries to oppose the plan.
In defined benefit retirement schemes, an employee receives an annual payment on retirement based on his or her final salary. Although most final salary – or defined benefit – schemes are now closed to new members, an estimated 12.5 million of current and former employees still benefit from them. Most large companies - from Tesco to Unilever to Alliance Boots - have some kind of defined benefit scheme.
The EU rules under discussion are known in the industry as Solvency II. Under the EU’s thinking, reduced pension deficits would mean that pension schemes are safer and savers’ money is better protected. The combined pension deficits of final salary pension schemes run by the UK’s 350 largest private companies are currently estimated to stand at £80 billion.
However Mr Webb said that the UK already has pension protection in place through the Pension Protection Fund and the Pensions Regulator, which would effectively act as safety nets if UK pension funds ran out of money. He therefore said that the new rules “are not necessary”.
“I am determined to do all I can to ensure that this does not happen,” said Mr Webb.
Joanne Segars, the chief executive of the National Association of Pension Funds (NAPF), which represents 1,200 pension schemes, said that the EU plans are the “last thing that pension funds need”.
“These plans would ramp up costs dramatically. Businesses struggling with a flatlining economy would suddenly have to pump billions more into their pension scheme. This would mean less money for jobs and investment, at a time when the economy desperately needs both,” she said.
Ms Segars said that firms would be so badly hit by the new rules that they would “simply shut these pensions down altogether”.
“It would be a crippling blow for what is left of final salary pensions in the private sector,” she said.
The EU’s plans are currently in the discussion phase. It will set out draft legislation next autumn.
Business group the CBI has also spoken out against the proposals, branding them a “terrible idea”.

Italy's gold 'worth only a tenth of bailout it needs'


The Italian central bank’s gold holdings are worth about one tenth of the total bailout the country requires, according to October data from the World Gold Council.

Gold and platinum rose to records for a second day and crude oil traded near $100 a barrel as the dollar's slump enhanced the appeal of raw materials as an inflation hedge
The gold price is currently at about $1,764 per troy ounce Photo: Bloomberg News
Italy holds 2,451.8 tonnes of gold – the third highest of any central bank in the world. Only the US, with 8,133.5 tonnes and Germany, with 3.401 tonnes holds more. The International Monetary fund also has reserves of 2,814 tonnes.
One tonne is the equivalent of 32,150.75 Troy ounces. The gold price is currently at about $1,764 per troy ounce, so one tonne of gold is worth about $57.6m. This means Italy’s total central bank holdings are worth around $141bn (£88.6bn).
According to Gary Jenkins, a fixed income analyst at Evolution Securities, Italy requires $1.4 trillion to fully cover its bail out.
This means Italy’s gold holdings are worth about one-tenth of the estimated total amount required.
The cost of repaying Italy’s debt by 2013 is expected to hit £424.9bn, with the country’s total debt currently standing at about $1.9 trillion.
“China wants gold. Would a gold-for-euro trade make sense?” Douglas Borthwick, managing director of foreign exchange dealer Faros Trading, said. “Italy can repay its debt, but it would need to sell its gold to do so.”
The Portuguese Central Bank holds 382.5 tonnes of gold, while the Spanish central bank has 281.6m tonnes of the precious metal.

S&P has no choice: Euroland risks bankruptcy on current policies



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: December 6th, 2011



Standard & Poor's dropped a bombshell at the right moment (Photo: AFP)
Very quickly, Standard & Poor’s is of course right.
The immediate eurozone crisis cannot be solved by punishment measures alone. There needs to be some form of joint debt issuance and a lender of last resort to halt "systemic stress".
It was well-timed to drop this bombshell on Monday night after the Merkozy fudge (though S&P made the decision earlier), since the duumvirate yet again failed to offer any meaningful way out of the impasse.
"Policymakers appear to have acted only in response to mounting market pressures, rather than pro-actively leading market expectations in a way that might have better supported and strengthened investor confidence. We take the view that the defensive and piecemeal nature of this response has helped expand the crisis of confidence in the eurozone."
Spot on.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde was equally dismissive of the Merkozy plan. "It’s not in itself sufficient and a lot more will be needed for the overall situation to be properly addressed and for confidence to return."
As S&P states, a credit crunch is taking hold, partly because of the EU’s pro-cyclical demands for higher capital ratios. Euroland’s incoherent mix of policies are pushing the eurozone into recession and therefore into deeper debt stress.
"As the European economy slows, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, eroding the revenue side of national budgets."
 There has of course been consternation in Germany, usually based on a misunderstanding of how rating agencies operate. They measure default risk, therefore members of a fixed currency union are inherently more risky.
 The US and the UK have used QE to inflate away some of the debt, and they have weakened currencies to act as a shock absorber. This is undoubtedly a form of stealth default, but that is not what S&P measures. It deals only with "credit events", and such an event is less likely for countries with a sovereign currency and central bank that can inflate (provided their debts are in their own currency).
Furthermore, shrieking Europols commit the fallacy of comparing levels of public debt and deficit levels with the US. That evades the core problem, that the eurozone’s banking nexus is €23 trillion, or three times sovereign debt. This has become a contingent liability of the governments themselves, especially the AAA core.
"For countries in net external liability positions, including the eurozone’s peripheral economies, we see growing risks to the funding of their external requirements. In our view, financial institutions located in countries in net external asset positions (such as Germany) also face pressure where the quality of those assets is deteriorating. Deleveraging by European banks is intensifying, as they reduce their balance sheets amid worsening funding conditions, look to bolster their capital ratios, and address concerns about deteriorating asset quality among their borrowers. By our estimates, a sample of 53 large eurozone banks from 12 countries will face bond market maturities of an historic record of over 205 billion euro in the first quarter of 2012."
I might add that EMU banks have a loan-to-deposit ratio of almost 1.2 (like Japan before the Nikkei bubble burst), compared to 0.7 in the US. They are much larger in aggregate, much more leveraged, and mostly underwater already on EMU bonds if forced to mark to market. In essence, the whole eurozone is already insolvent. Face up to it.
(Yes, yes, before you all scream over there, Britain is insolvent too by the same yardstick. That is why it is useful to have the magical instrument of a sovereign central bank in such circumstances – and one willing to act – to conjure away the awful truth.)
Euroland’s crisis is not about Greek pensions or Italian labour laws, but about a vast and catastrophically ill-designed edifice of interlocking bank debt and sovereign debt.
You cannot separate the two. The sovereigns are destroying banks, and the banks in turn are destroying sovereigns. The two disasters are feeding on each other. This will continue until there is a circuit-breaker, both to act as lender of last resort and to end the slump.
S&P does not pull its punches on this:
"We will analyze the policy settings of the ECB to address the economic and financial stresses now being experienced by eurozone sovereigns. In particular, we will examine the potential impact these policy settings will have in both staunching the eurozone’s increasing output gap and ameliorating its currently dislocated debt markets."
 In other words, Europe has been told that the ECB’s contractionary policies – if continued – will lead to downgrades. The agency is targeting the output gap.
The Europeans are entitled to ignore this as – in their view – the worst sort of New Keynesian and Anglo-Saxon muddled thinking. Fine, but you can hardly complain if you lose your AAAs from an Anglo-Saxon New Keynesian agency.
Take it on the chin, defy the world, and pursue your 1930s policies if you wish.