Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Wednesday, 26 February 2014
Create a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit
Great Q&A starting @ 42 min. Very insightful
Published on 14 Jun 2012
In this special one-hour presentation, Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz and ETF expert Mike Rawson discuss how to build a low-maintenance, hands-free portfolio that will help you reach your financial goals.
Note to viewers: Filmed in late April 2012, this Morningstar presentation was part of Money Smart Week, a series of free classes and activities organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and designed to help consumers better manage their personal finances. Morningstar is a Money Smart Week partner.
Download the presentation slides here:
http://im.mstar.com/im/moneysmartweek_presentation.pdf
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Your investment goals determine which stocks to include in your portfolio
- If your investment goals are primarily long-term in nature, you should build a stock portfolio that is best able to meet these long-term goals. Choose the stocks of companies that have good long-term growth prospects.
- If your main investment goal is to enjoy a stable source of current income, you should own stocks that pay liberal but secure dividends.
Keep in mind that constructing a portfolio of stocks that meets your investment goals does not lessen the need to maintain a diversified portfolio.
Sunday, 28 March 2010
How to Build a High Return Low Risk Stock Portfolio
There is no single strategy for being successful in the stock market. If we look at the great investors, Warren Buffet, T. Rowe Price and Peter Lynch, they all had different investment strategies. However, few people have the natural investment talents and insights that these men held. Below than is a strategy than can be used by the rest of us to earn high returns while maintaining minimum risks.
This stock portfolio strategy is based on 3 basic principles:
1. Diversify
2. Buy Quality Stock
3. Pay the Right Price
http://www.nassbee.com/wealthy/stock_portfolio.
Read also:
Wednesday, 10 February 2010
Portfolio Review
5 stocks are fairly valued; 1 is undervalued and another is overvalued. None of the stock is very overvalued.
The market has turned volatile.
However, the market is certainly not in a bubble.
Saturday, 30 January 2010
How do asset classes fit in with your profile?
The three basic profiles and their respective investment objectives are:
- You cannot afford to make mistakes: Conservative investment objectives
- You are carefully weighing up your options: Prudent investment objectives
- You want to grow bigger and better: Aggressive investment objectives
Click here to find out what asset classes these respective investors should include in their portfolios.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t5u-KMcEYg81UlomoCgxU9A&output=html
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
****Constructing a Portfolio
The Fat-Pitch Approach
1======== 0%
2 ========46%
4 ========72%
8 ========81%
16======= 93%
32======= 96%
500====== 99%
9,000==== 100%
- the average return of the stock market was about 10% and
- statistically, the one-year range of returns for a market portfolio (holding scores of stocks) in this period was between negative 8% and positive 28% about two-thirds of the time.
- That means that one-third of the time, the returns fell outside this 36-point range.
- 5 stocks, the expected return remains 10%, but your one-year range expands to between negative 11% and positive 31% about two-thirds of the time.
- 8 stocks, the range is between negative 10% and positive 30%.
Portfolio Weighting
In addition to knowing how many stocks to own in your portfolio and which stocks to buy, the percentage of your portfolio occupied by each stock is just as important. Unfortunately, the science and academics behind this important topic are scarce, and therefore, portfolio weighting is, again, more art than science.
The great money managers have a knack for having a great percentage of their money in stocks that do well and a lesser amount in their bad picks. So how do they do it?
Essentially, a portfolio should be weighted in direct proportion to how much confidence you have in each pick. If you have a lot of confidence in the long-term outlook and the valuation of a stock, then it should be weighted more heavily than a stock you may be taking a flier on.
If a stock has
- a 10% weighting in your portfolio, then a 20% change in its price will move your overall portfolio 2%.
- a 3% weighting, a 20% change has only a 0.6% effect on your portfolio.
Weight your portfolio wisely. Don't be afraid to have some big weightings, but be certain that the highest-weighted stocks are the ones you feel the most confident about. And, of course, don't go off the deep end by having, for example, 50% of your portfolio in a single stock.
Portfolio Turnover
If you follow the fat-pitch method, you won't trade very often. Wide-moat companies selling at a discount are rare, so when you find one, you should pounce. Over the years, a wide-moat company will generate returns on capital higher than its cost of capital, creating value for shareholders. This shareholder value translates into a higher stock price over time.
If you sell after making a small profit, you might not get another chance to buy the stock, or a similar high-quality stock, for a long time. For this reason, it's irrational to quickly move in and out of wide-moat stocks and incur capital gains taxes and transaction costs. Your results, after taxes and trading expenses, likely won't be any better and may be worse. That's why many of the great long-term investors display low turnover in their portfolios. They've learned to let their winners run and to think like owners, not traders.
Circle of Competence and Sector Concentration
If you are investing within your circle of competence, then your stock selections will gravitate toward certain sectors and investment styles.
Maybe you:
- work in the medical field and thus are familiar with and own a number of pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks, or,
- you've been educated in the Warren Buffett school of investing and cling to entrenched, easy-to-understand businesses such as Coca-Cola and Wrigley.
However, if all your stocks are in one sector, you may want to think about the effects that could have on your portfolio. For instance, you probably wouldn't want all of your investments to be in unattractive areas such as the airline or auto industry.
Adding Mututal Funds to a Stock Portfolio
In-the-know investors buy stocks. Those less-in-the-know, or those who choose to know less, own mutual funds.
But investing doesn't have to be a choice between investing directly in stocks or indirectly through mutual funds. Investors can - and many should - do both. The trick is determining how your portfolio can benefit most from each type of investment. Figuring out your appropriate stock/fund mix is up to you.
Begin by looking for gaps in your portfolio and circle of competence.
- Do you have any foreign exposure?
- Do your assets cluster in particualr sectors or style-box positions?
Some funds invest in micro-caps, others invest around the globe, still others focus on markets, such as real estate. Stock investors who turn over some of their dollars to an expert in these areas gain exposure to new opportunities without having to learn a whole new set of analytical skills.
Ultimately, your choice depends on your circle of competence and comfort level. While many may feel comfortable with picking their own international stocks, others may prefer to own an international equity fund.
Our Objective
Modern Portfolio Theory has been built on the assumption that you can't beat the stock market. If you can't beat the market porfolio, then the best you can do is to match the market's performance. Therefore, academic theory revolves around how to build the most efficient portfolio to match the market.
We have taken a different approach. Our objective is to outperform the market. Therefore, we believe that our odds increase by holding (not actively trading) relatively concentrated portfolios of between 12 and 20 great companies purchased with a margin of safety. The circle of competence will be unique to every person; therefore, your stock portfolio will naturally have sector, style, and country biases. If lacking in any area, such as international stocks, a good mutual fund can be used to balance your overall portfolio.
Friday, 18 December 2009
How to construct a stock portfolio – do’s & don’ts
Thu Jun 4, 2009 1:33pm
- you are a day trader, punting on every rumour that you come across, or
- if you are a value investor who buys and holds for at least a minimum of 4-5 years.
- When the price moves higher or lower than your expectation, do you buy more or do you start selling?
- Do you recognize that your exposure to one sector or stock might have gone up or down a lot due to market price changes?
Friday, 14 August 2009
Reviewing my Sell Transactions
Reasons for selling:
1. When cash is needed urgently for emergencies. Hopefully you will have cash kept aside for such contingencies.
2. When the fundamentals of the company has deteriorated. The stock should be sold urgently.
3. When the share is deemed overpriced, reducing its upside potential and increasing its downside risk.
4. To switch a stock to another stock with better upside potential and lower downside risk.
Thursday, 26 March 2009
How You Can Tailor-Make a Winning Portfolio
By Dan Caplinger March 25, 2009
Anybody can throw a bunch of investments together and call it a portfolio. It takes a lot more, however, to find a select group of promising prospects that fit well with your temperament, your time horizon, and your particular financial goals.
Too often, investors don't think about their investment portfolio as a single unit. Instead, they grab shares of various stocks and funds willy-nilly, based solely on their individual characteristics -- never thinking of a new stock's impact on the holdings they already own.
Make the right portfolio
In this month's brand-new issue of Motley Fool Champion Funds -- which goes live this afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT -- Foolish fund expert Amanda Kish takes a look at this question from a unique angle. Part of what Amanda's newsletter offers subscribers every month are three model portfolios, each of which represents a blend of some of the funds that the service has recommended over the years.
But of course, unless you're just getting started with your investing, you'll probably already have some stocks and funds to bring to the mix. In addition, even if you have cash available, you may not have access to buy the exact funds you want -- especially if you have to choose from a fixed menu of investment options, as many workers must in their 401(k) plans.
Given those limitations, what's the best way to choose investments in a way that will complement your existing portfolio rather than create problems?
Watch out for the concentration trap
With individual stocks, problems often come from haphazardly choosing promising companies that aren't well diversified. For instance, here's an extreme example of stocks you might have been tempted to add to your portfolio based on these news items from early last year:
- With the discovery of a massive oil field off the cost of Brazil, Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) found itself fortuitously positioned to take maximum advantage of the news.
- The red-hot Haynesville shale play brought quick profits to natural gas players like Petrohawk Energy (NYSE: HK) and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK).
- Demand for fertilizer rose much faster than supply, giving industry players like Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) great returns during the first six months of 2008.
- Early in 2008, heavy demand for industrial metals from China and other development-hungry economies bolstered prospects for copper producers like Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) -- and with China's economy forecast to grow strongly, the end seemed far away.
Clearly, if you'd acted on those temptations, you would've owned a portfolio that was way overweighted in energy and commodities stocks -- stocks that came crashing down during the latter half of the year.
Dealing with funds
With mutual funds, there are a bunch of things to keep in mind when tailoring a fund portfolio for your particular wants and needs. For instance:
- If you have a strong relationship with a particular fund company, you might want to use their offerings in particular asset classes rather than mixing and matching across different fund companies.
- Even within broad categories like large-cap value or small-cap growth, you'll find dozens of different strategies. Some may appeal to you more than others, even if all of them have been equally successful at creating gains over the long haul.
Champion Funds gives portfolio recommendations for conservative, moderate, and aggressive investors. But if you find yourself halfway between two of those categories, then an easy way to split the difference may be to add another fund.
In this month's newsletter, Amanda goes through these and other reasons you may have for making switches -- and gives you a useful set of tools to help you evaluate whether a particular fund you may have in mind is the right one to keep your overall portfolio strong. And with dozens of different fund recommendations to choose from, Champion Funds subscribers don't have any shortage of great funds to plug into their overall investment strategy.
Putting together a tailor-made portfolio will take some work, but the rewards will last a lifetime.
For more on winning investment strategies, read about:
Yes, you can defend your portfolio from losses.
Will 7% returns really make you happy.
Want to retire? You need options.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger is constantly making adjustments to his portfolio. He owns shares of Freeport McMoRan and Chesapeake Energy. Petroleo Brasileiro is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. Chesapeake Energy is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation.
http://www.fool.com/investing/mutual-funds/2009/03/25/how-you-can-tailor-make-a-winning-portfolio.aspxMonday, 8 December 2008
50%-50% versus 80%-20% portfolio blend of stocks and bonds
How to invest well and sleep better, in good markets or bad
By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:37 p.m. EST Nov. 18, 2008
Comments: 58
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In this devastated market, "risk tolerance" is an oxymoron. Those little tests the online investing sites give you to assess how much risk you can handle in your investments don't do justice to the kind of crash we're living through.
Most of us can't stomach 40% free falls in our fortunes and we certainly can't -- or don't want to -- suffer a shellacking like the one we had in October and then watch what's left trickle away.
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You don't have to.
This may be too late for many investors who have already seen their stock-heavy nest eggs scrambled, but some research and simple number-crunching indicates you can keep less money invested in stocks than conventional wisdom would have you believe -- without giving up your retirement goals and with a lot less risk.
Indeed, a portfolio that mixes 50% stocks and 50% super-safe long-term Treasury bonds has performed almost as well over the past two decades as a portfolio that carries an 80%-20% blend of stocks and bonds. And if you're the guy holding the first portfolio, you're probably sleeping a lot better these days than the other fellow.
"If your goal is to be very confident about having a certain amount of money at a point in time, lower-risk portfolios are actually a cheaper way to get there than a higher-risk portfolio," says Christopher Jones, of Financial Engines, an investment advisory firm.
If you, like many investors, have bailed out of stocks this year, you have, unfortunately, sold into the collapsing market and locked in your losses. But who could blame you? Most people can't handle the pain this market is inflicting. And the losses are worse because people nearing retirement often end up with way too much of their portfolios in stocks as they try to goose growth in their twilight working years.
The typical investor's thinking goes something like this: Stocks over time outperform both bonds and cash. So without a high allocation to stocks, you'll fall short of your financial goal, inflation will ravage your portfolio and your golden years will be tarnished as your money runs out before you do.
Big problem: The 80% or 70% stock portfolio that served you well in your 20s or 30s bites back in your 50s and 60s, when a crash erases years of growth in just a few weeks or months.
Start with a balance
There has to be a better, more automatic way to build wealth without constantly refiguring your investment mix. There is. Forget the stock-heavy plan and start with an equal balance of stocks and bonds.
Let's look at what happens when you ratchet down stocks early to a less volatile level: We asked investment researcher Morningstar to calculate your investment results if at the end of October 1987 -- a really frightening moment, right after the big crash that year -- you had put 50% of your money in a low-cost fund that mimicked the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:
Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 50% in a vehicle that mirrored long-term Treasurys.
Nowadays that could be accomplished at a low cost using the Dow "Diamonds" exchange-traded fund (DIA: Dow Diamonds ETF) and iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT:
iShares:Lehm 20+ Trs) . Over the decades, you would keep the allocation constant through annual rebalancing and would reinvest all stock dividends and bond income.
'Good enough' returns
The plan is to smooth your investment performance, accepting lesser short-term gains in exchange for milder, and less worrisome, short-term declines.
In this most recent 21-year example, by October of this year a 50%-50% portfolio would have averaged a 10% annual return and you would have insulated yourself from a significant portion of the market's day-to-day risk. Your best quarterly performance? A 13.8% gain in the value of your portfolio. Your worst? A 9.1% loss.
By comparison, a portfolio of 80% stocks and 20% Treasurys would have been exposed to considerably more market risk, but your return would average just a slightly better 10.3% a year. Your best quarterly performance would have been an increase of 17.6% in your portfolio while your worst would have been a 14.2% loss.
In the current bear market, the 50%-50% portfolio would be down about 14.6% from the October 2007 market peak through the end of last month, while the 80%-20% portfolio would be down 24.8%.
Over the 21-year period, the 50%-50% portfolio would have achieved 95% of the total dollar return of the 80%-20% mix, with substantially lower risk, a steadier performance and, for you, many fewer sleepless nights.
Not much difference
Make no mistake. The 50%-50% portfolio will leave you poorer than the riskier blend. But the difference isn't that substantial.
Had you put $25,000 into the 80%-20% split in 1987 and never invested another dime, the money would have grown to about $196,000. That same amount in the 50%-50% blend would be worth around $185,000.
The strategy holds up if you dollar-cost average, too, and invest a little at a time over the years. Add $100 a month, and $25,000 grows to $261,621 in the 80%-20% portfolio and $251,732 in the 50%-50% mix.
And even if you eliminate the market's horrendous decline over the past year from the calculations, the conservative plan still performs admirably. At the market's peak in October 2007, the 80%-20% portfolio would have been worth $261,109, while the 50%-50% split would have grown over that 20-year period to $217,222, capturing 83% of the more aggressive approach's return, but with far fewer bumps.
Of course in bull markets, you won't make as much with a 50%-50% portfolio. You'll give up bragging rights. But you also won't feel the raw fear that others do during the inevitable downturns. That should be worth a few thousand dollars right there.
Jonathan Burton is an assistant personal finance editor for MarketWatch, based in San Francisco.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/how-invest-well-sleep-better/story.aspx?guid=%7BA27C214B%2DE1CE%2D4990%2D907C%2D67D1338851AC%7D#comments
Monday, 4 August 2008
Portfolio Management - Defensive & Offensive strategies
1) need cash for emergencies
2) defensive management of your portfolio when a stock's fundamental has turned bad, and
3) offensive management of your portfolio to maximise/optimise returns.
_______________________________________
http://biwiki.editme.com/portfoliodesignandphilosophy
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Friday, 1 August 2008
Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)
A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)
B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.
C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.
D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.
_______________
For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B
(Portfolio A: Cash, FDs, Bonds Portfolio B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)
For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B & C
(Portfolio C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)
For SPECULATORS: Portfolio D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)
________________
________________
Types of Investors
Graham felt that individual investors fell into two camps : "defensive" investors and "aggressive" or "enterprising" investors.
These two groups are distinguished not by the amount of risk they are willing to take, but rather by the amount of "intelligent effort" they are "willing and able to bring to bear on the task."
Thus, for instance, he included in the defensive investor category professionals (his example--a doctor) unable to devote much time to the process and young investors (his example--a sharp young executive interested in finance) who are as-yet unfamiliar and inexperienced with investing.
Graham felt that the defensive investor should confine his holdings to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and that are in strong financial condition. By "important," he meant one of substantial size and with a leading position in the industry, ranking among the first quarter or first third in size within its industry group.
Aggressive investors, Graham felt, could expand their universe substantially, but purchases should be attractively priced as established by intelligent analysis. He also suggested that aggressive investors avoid new issues.
Read also:
Are You an Intelligent Investor?
http://www.investinvalue.com/0/styles.php
(Check out the table in this site for rules for defensive versus enterprising investors.)