Malaysia's richest tycoons and the billions in dividends they earned in the final quarter of 2020

 Bees for the honey

Cows for the milk

And, stocks for the dividends!

KUALA LUMPUR (March 18): Eight of Malaysia's top 10 richest tycoons — based on Forbes' 2020 billionaires list — earned a whopping RM1.99 billion worth of dividends from the recently announced financial results for the quarter ended Dec 31, 2020, based on their known shareholdings in Bursa Malaysia-listed firms.

Among them, Public Bank Bhd founder Tan Sri Dr Teh Hong Piow is expected to receive the biggest dividend payout totalling RM668.18 million from his shareholdings in the bank and insurer LPI Capital Bhd.

Public Bank, the third largest banking group in the country by asset size, declared an interim dividend of 13 sen (payable on March 22) for its fourth quarter of financial year 2020 (4QFY20) ended Dec 31, 2020. Public Bank also undertook a four-for-one bonus share issue to reward shareholders last year, which enlarged the number of Public Bank's outstanding shares to 4.2 billion.

Teh holds a 22.78% stake in Public Bank through his private investment vehicle — Consolidated Teh Holdings Sdn Bhd. He has another direct stake of 0.64%.

LPI Capital, meanwhile, announced a second interim dividend of 44 sen per share for its 4QFY20, which amounted to a payout of RM175.3 million. Based on Teh's 44.15% stake in the company, his share of the dividend payout will be about RM77.39 million.

After Teh is Hong Leong Group's Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan, who is estimated to get RM296.05 million worth of dividends through his holdings in Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd (HLFG) and Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLB).

HLFG declared an interim dividend of 10.8 sen per share while HLB announced an interim single-tier dividend of 14.78 sen per share. Quek holds a direct interest of 0.47% and an indirect interest of 77.88% in HLFG, while he controls an indirect interest of 64.51% in HLB.

Next is telecommunications tycoon T Ananda Krishnan, who will receive RM276.04 million from his stake in Maxis Bhd and Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd. Ananda is the largest shareholder in Maxis with an indirectly held 62.34% stake. In Astro, he holds an indirect stake of 41.29%.

Maxis declared a fourth interim dividend of five sen per share in its 4QFY20 ended Dec 31, 2020, while Astro announced a payout of 1.5 sen per share in its 3QFY20 ended Oct 31, 2020.

Ananda also holds a 34.86% stake in Bumi Armada Bhd, Asia's biggest offshore supporting vessel operator. The company, however, did not declare any dividends in 2020.

Robert Kuok's dividend cheque from PPB Group Bhd for the final quarter of last year is estimated to be RM274.65 million — the fourth highest sum among the ultra-rich.

PPB Group announced a dividend of 38 sen, comprising a final dividend of 22 sen and a special payout of 16 sen, in its 4QFY20 ended Dec 31, 2020. Kuok holds a 50.81% stake in the diversified conglomerate through his private investment vehicle, Kuok Brothers Sdn Bhd. He also holds a stake in Shangri-La Hotels (Malaysia) Bhd, though the latter did not declare any dividends for its FY20.

The fifth largest dividend gainer among the top 10 Malaysian billionaires is the founder and chairman of Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Kuan Kam Hon, who received RM162.47 million from the rubber glove maker, which recently announced a record high net profit of RM1 billion, and a second interim dividend of 9.65 sen for its 3QFY21 ended Dec 31, 2020, which was paid in February.

Based on the latest bourse filings, Kuan holds a direct interest of 0.795% in the group and a 48.32% indirect interest via Hartalega Industries Sdn Bhd. The glove manufacturer recently announced a record high net profit of RM1 billion for its 3QFY21 ended Dec 31, 2020 and declared a second interim dividend of 9.65 sen.

Next comes gaming tycoon Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, who likely earned RM148.73 million in dividends from his shareholdings in the Genting group of companies listed on Bursa, despite the group facing challenges in operating its casino and resorts amid the pandemic.

This is based on the RM146.54 million Genting Bhd paid to Kok Thay's private investment company, Kien Huat Realty Sdn Bhd, and the dividends declared by Genting Plantations Bhd and Genting Malaysia Bhd.

Genting Malaysia declared a dividend payout of 8.5 sen per share for its 4QFY20 ended Dec 31, 2020, while Genting Plantations announced a 15 sen dividend — comprising a final dividend of four sen per share and a special dividend of 11 sen per share.

Kok Thay holds a direct interest of 0.44% in Genting Malaysia and a direct interest of 0.05% in Genting Plantations.

After Kok Thay is Datuk Lee Yeow Chor, who earned RM141.28 million in dividends from his holding in IOI Corp Bhd. Lee holds a direct interest of 0.16% and an indirect interest of 49.94% in the group.

Meanwhile, Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd's Tan Sri Koon Poh Keong garnered RM20.22 million through his holdings in Press Metal and PMB Technology Bhd. Press Metal declared a fourth interim single-tier dividend of 1.25 sen per share in its 4QFY20 ended Dec 31, 2020 while PMB Technology declared a one sen dividend to its shareholders.

Two of the top 10 tycoons, however, did not appear to have gained any dividend payments from their shareholdings in Bursa-listed companies. They are gaming tycoon Tan Sri Chen Lip Keong and Tan Sri Lau Cho Kun, the largest shareholder in Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd.

What the glove maker billionaires take home

Though not on the list of Malaysia's top 10 richest tycoons based on Forbes 2020 list — which was published in March 2020 — Top Glove Corp Bhd's founder and executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai earned about RM460.45 million in dividend in end-2020, thanks to the interim dividend of 16.5 sen that the world's largest rubber glove maker declared in its 1QFY21 ended Nov 30, 2020.

The group also announced an interim dividend payment of 25.2 sen per share for its 2QFY21 ended Feb 28, 2021, payable on April 6 this year. Based on the announcement, Wee Chai stands to gain another dividend payout of RM710.12 million before mid-2021.

That means just for the first two quarters of Top Glove's FY21, Wee Chai has accumulated a total of RM1.17 billion in dividends, based on his total shareholdings of 35.22% in Top Glove, comprising a direct stake of 26.56% and an indirectly held stake of 8.65%.

Datuk Seri Stanley Thai of Supermax Corp Bhd, on the other hand, accumulated dividends of RM38.17 million, while Tan Sri Lim Kuang Sia of Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd earned RM132.99 million.

Including Kwan, the billionaires from the big four glove makers on Bursa earned RM794.07 million worth of dividends in end-2020, as their companies' earnings continued to scale new highs following the surge in glove demand amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

 

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-richest-tycoons-and-billions-dividends-they-earned-final-quarter-2020

The Case for Dividends

Dividends and dividend growth provide a solid basis for a stock's intrinsic value. 

In the end, a stock will only be worth the value of the dividends it pays.

Numerous academic studies have established the importance of dividends and dividend reinvestment in investor returns.

In some studies, dividends accounted for more than half of long-term total returns.



Dividends are making a comeback.

The yield on the S&P 500 is still below historic norms at just under 2%, but real dividend growth (adjusted for inflation) is running at its best pace in decades.

Dividend is a simple and versatile analytic tool.

Less than half of U.S. stocks pay a dividend.



Stay with consistent growth, mature, moat-protected stocks.

It is not particularly well suited to deeply cyclical firms, whose earnings power and even dividend rates will vary widely from year to year.

It is also not suited for emerging-growth stories.

But for the ranks of relatively consistent, mature, moat-protected stocks - of which there are hundreds, if not thousands, to pick from - we can use the dividend as a critical selection too.



The advantages conferred by dividends

Compared with retained earnings or buybacks, a solid dividend:

• establishes a firm intrinsic value for the stock, 
• helps reduce the stock's volatility, and 
• acts as a check on management's capital-allocation practices.

You can use the dividend to identify high-quality stocks with good total return prospects.

What future return can you get for investing into Public Bank Berhad?

We should keep our investing very simple and readily understandable.

Public Bank Berhad is a strong bank in Malaysia. Banking sector is highly regulated. Public Bank Berhad has done very well for decades building its banking business in Malaysia and increasingly in our neighbouring emerging countries. The challenge going forward is how well it adopts to new financial environment, in particular, that of fintech.

Its revenues, profits before tax and earnings per share have grown consistently over the last decade. It is this consistency and growth that confer to this company its high investment qualities.

It has also been distributing dividends regularly. Dividends have grown over the years (dividend growth investing). In the previous decade, it paid a higher dividend paid out relative to its earnings. It is presently paying out about 44% of earnings as dividends. It retained about 56% of its earnings in recent years. Its return on equity for the last 5 years averaged around 16.7%, which is remarkable. As an investor, I am happy that Public Bank Berhad is able to generate this high level of return on its equity. Its dividend payout ratio has declined in recent years due to its need to retain and build up its equity base in keeping with new Basel capital adequacy ratio guidelines.

It is a very well managed bank. It has been growing its net interest income and non-interest income satisfactorily without taking undue or too high risk.

At its present price of $19.98 per share, how attractive is Public Bank Berhad as an investment for the long term? Long term is taken to mean a period of at least 5 or 10 years.

Here are some facts and my opinion on Public Bank Berhad below.

1. At 19.98, it is trading at a PE ratio of 14.90.

2. It is trading at its fair price (neither undervalued or overvalued).

3. Its reward:risk ratio (based on my own method) is 6.84:1 (the probability risk of losing money is low and the reward: risk ratio is in your favour).

4. At the present price, assuming its future consistent growth in earnings per share of 6% per year (very conservative), this company can be expected to give about 13.07% simple average annual total return (= Annual capital appreciation of 9.62% and Average annual dividend yield of 3.45%) or 10% compound annual total return over the next 5 years.

5. At the present price of $19.98 and last FY dividend of 58 sen, its present Dividend Yield is 2.89%. Assuming its earnings and dividends grow consistently at 6% annually the next 5 years, we can expect a back of the envelop calculation return of approximately 2.89% + 6% = 9% annually (simple average). At such a conservative assumption in our calculation, this company may well surprise on the upside, making its investors happier.

I sought a higher return of 15% per year. This illustration shows that to get a return of 8% to 10% in the stock market or a stock, is actually quite achievable. To get a higher return, is more challenging than most realise.


Good luck in your investing.



Additional Notes:

Intrinsic value or Price
= Dividend / (required rate of return - growth)
= D / (r-g)

P = D / (r-g)
r-g = D / P
r = (D/P) + g
r = (Dividend Yield) + g

If you invest into a company that grows dividends at a constant rate of g, your expected return can be easily worked out as:

r = (Dividend Yield) + g

The present DY of Public Bank Berhad is 2.89%.

Our assumption is its dividend will grow at 6% per year.

Therefore, we can hope for a return of 2.89% + 6% = 8.89% or 9% per year.

Public Bank Berhad's last financial year dividend of 58 sen can support a share price of $16.25.


[Disclaimer:  Please do your own diligent analysis before investing.  Your investing should be based on your own analysis and informed decision.  This is not a recommendation.  You invest at your own risk.]

Applying Present Value Models

1.  Where Gordon Growth Model is highly appropriate

The Gordon Growth Model is highly appropriate for valuing dividend-paying stocks that are relatively immune to the business cycle and are relatively mature (e.g., utilities).

It is also useful for valuing companies that have historically been raising their dividends at a stable rate.



2.  Where DDM or Gordon Growth Model is difficult to use

Applying the DDM is relatively difficult if the company is not currently paying out a dividend.  

A company may not pay out a dividend because:

• It has a lot of lucrative investment opportunities available and it wants to retain profits to reinvest them in the business.
• It does not have sufficient excess cash flow to pay out a dividend.

Even though the Gordon Growth Model can be used for valuing such companies, the forecasts used are generally quite uncertain.

Therefore, analysts use one of the other valuation models to value such companies and may use the DDM model as a supplement.

3.  Multi-stage DDM can be employed 

The DDM can be extended to numerous stages.  For example:

A.   A three-stage DDM is used to value fairly young companies that are just entering the growth phase.  Their development falls into three stages - 

• growth (with very high growth rates), 
• transition (with decent growth rates) and 
• maturity (with a lower growth into perpetuity).

B.  A two-stage DDM can be used to value a company 

• currently undergoing moderate growth, but 
• whose growth rate is expected to improve (rise) to its long term growth rate.

Return on Share Investment = Dividend Yield + Growth over Time (Gordon Growth Model)

Rearranging the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) formula:

PV = D1 / (k-g)

k = (D1/PV) + g
   = Dividend yield + growth over time.

This expression for the cost of equity (required rate of return) tells us that the return on an equity investment has two components:

• The dividend yield (D1/PV at year 0)
• Growth over time (g)

Return on share investment = Dividend Yield + Growth over Time:

Warren Buffett is a closet dividend investor.

How Warren Buffett earns $1,140 in dividend income per minute

On April 3rd, 2017, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) will receive $148 million dollars in dividend income from their 400 million shares of Coca-Cola (KO). This comes out to roughly $1.644 million in dividend income per day, $68,500 dollars in dividend income per hour, $1142 dollars in dividend income for Berkshire Hathaway every minute, or almost $19.03 every single second. Those shares have a cost basis of $1.29 billion dollars, and were acquired between 1988 – 1994. This comes out to $3.25/share. The annual dividend payment produces an yield on cost of over 45.60%. This doesn’t assume dividend reinvestment and is 4 – 5 times higher than what investors in 30 year US Treasuries would be earning today. This is why I believe that Warren Buffett is a closet dividend investor.



This is a testament to the power of long-term dividend investing, where time in market is the investors best ally, not timing the market. If you can select a business which is run by able and honest management, which has solid competitive advantages, and which is available at a good price today, one needs to only sit and let the power of compounding do the heavy lifting for them. As Buffett likes to say, time is a great ally for the good business. In the case of Coca-Cola, the past 29 years have been a great time to buy and hold the stock. The company has been able to tap emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America like never before. As a result, it has been able to receive a higher share of the worldwide drinks market, which has also been expanding as well. If you add in strategic acquisitions, new product development, cost containment initiatives and streamlining of operations, you have a very powerful force for delivering solid shareholder returns. With dividend investing your are rewarded for smart decisions you have made years before.



If they closed the stock market for a period of 10 years, Coca-Cola would be one of the companies I would be willing to hold on to. This is because ten years from now, the company would likely be earning double what it is earning today, and would likely be distributing twice as much in dividend income than it is paying to shareholders today. Check my analysis of Coca-Cola for more information.

At the end of the day, if you identify a solid business, that has lasting power for the next 20 – 30 years, the job of the investor is to purchase shares at attractive values, and hold on to it. This slow and steady approach might seem unexciting initially, but just like with the story of the slow-moving tortoise beating the fast moving hare, the power of compounding would work miracles for the patient dividend investor.

In the case of Warren Buffett's investment in Coca-Cola, he is able to recover his original purchase price in dividends alone, every two years. Even if Coca-Cola goes to zero tomorrow, he has generates a substantial returns from dividends alone, which have flown to Berkshire's coffers, and have been invested in a variety of businesses that will benefit Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders for generations to come.

Currently, Coca-Cola is selling for 21.10 times forward earnings and yields 3.60%. This dividend king has managed to increase dividends for 55 years in a row. There are only twenty companies in the entire world which have gained membership into the exclusive list of dividend kings. Over the past decade, Coca-Cola has managed to increase dividends by 8.50%/year, equivalent to dividend payments doubling every eight and a half years. This is much better than the raises I have received at work over the past decade, despite the fact that I have routinely spent 55 - 60 hour weeks at the office.


http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/warren-buffett-earns-1140-dividend-income-per-minute/

Dividend Yield Investing

As deposit accounts pay very low interests or next to nothing, dividends on shares seem attractive. But you'll need to choose carefully.

Many large companies pay decent dividends once, twice or even four times a year. The yield – the dividend expressed as a percentage of the share price – is often attractive by comparison with interest rates on savings. There are now a wide range of blue chip companies yielding 4pc.



Warnings for those seeking Dividend Yield in their investing

When comparing a dividend yield with the interest rate on a savings account, however, certain warnings should be borne in mind.

1. The first point is that your capital is not guaranteed; share prices can and do fall.

2. Secondly, dividends can be cut drastically or axed altogether with little or no notice – and this can lead to a fall in the share price as well.


So just buying the shares with the highest dividend, without researching how safe that dividend is, can be a mistake.

There are now a huge range of high yielding blue chips but it is best to look for a dividend that is less likely to be cut even if that company's profits fall.

A high yield alone is not synonymous with a decent dividend.

If you carry out thorough research and pick the right shares, you will get better value for your cash than by leaving it in a savings account.



Measure of a dividend's reliability is Dividend Cover

The long-established measure of a dividend's reliability is dividend cover: the ratio of net profits to the size of the dividend payout.

Generally, a cover ratio of at least two – meaning that the company has twice as much net earnings as the amount earmarked for dividend payments – is considered a strong indicator.

Once again, for those who invest for yield or income - either Dividend Yield Investing or Dividend Growth Investing - STOCK SELECTION is still the key.

Search out for those companies that have a good chance of sustaining or even increasing their dividends.

If you are knowledgeable, you can even anticipate and avoid those companies that may skip or reduce their dividends in the future.




Stock selection is the key to dividend yield investing.

Some investors look at historic yields; some at forecast (or "prospective") yields.

But either way, those yields can be unexploded mines, lurking for the unwary.

Looking at yield on its own, in short, can quickly introduce you -- painfully -- to the meaning of the term "yield trap".



Yield Trap

The yield trap is simply explained.

You buy a share, attracted by the high yield. But the dividend is then cut, or cancelled -- leaving you without the anticipated income. Worse, unsupported by the payout, the share price usually falls as well, leaving you also nursing a capital loss.


Let's see it in action.

Company A pays out 9 pence a share, with shares changing hands for 100 pence per share. So the dividend yield -- which is the dividend per share, divided by the share price, and multiplied by a hundred to turn it into a percentage -- is 9%.

But that 9 pence is unsustainable. Company A then halves its dividend, slashing investors' income. What happens to the yield? If the share drops to -- say -- 80 pence, the historic yield the becomes 5.6%. The "yield on cost" figure, of course, is 4.5%.



How, then, should investors spot potential yield traps?  Answer:  Dividend cover

The most obvious reason for slashing the dividend is that the business simply hasn't got the money to pay it.

The business's earnings, in short, aren't large enough to support a distribution to shareholders at historic levels.

Put another way, actual earnings per share aren't sufficiently large when compared to the anticipated dividend per share.

Which is where the notion of 'dividend cover' comes in: earnings per share divided by dividend per share.



Interpret Dividend Cover with care

Now, dividend cover shouldn't be followed blindly.

Some businesses -- such as utilities, for instance -- can quite happily operate with lower levels of dividend cover than more cyclical businesses.

Other businesses -- such as REITs -- must pay out a fixed proportion of earnings as dividends, so again a low level of dividend cover is the norm.

Still other businesses have very high levels of dividend cover, because they are growing -- and therefore retaining earnings for future investment -- rather than paying them out as dividends.

But as a broad brush generalisation,

- A ratio of close to one is definitely the danger zone.
- A ratio much bigger than two indicates a certain parsimony.
- A ratio of 1.5-2.5 is usually what I'm looking for.



Stock Performance Guide on Dividends (by Neoh Soon Kean)

He considers dividend per share (DPS) as the most important factor when evaluating the worth of a share.

The ideal situation is for the DPS of a company to grow smoothly and rapidly over the years. (This is the Dividend Growth Investing I mentioned).

The DPS track record should be unbroken for many years.

One important caveat: you must compare the amount of dividend paid with the amount of earnings per share (EPS). (This is the dividend payout ratio).

- The growth of DPS must be proportionate to the growth of EPS.

- A company cannot sustain year after year of higher DPS thanEPS.

- On the other hand, the DPS should not be too small compared with the EPS unless the EPS is growing rapidly.

He advises, under normal circumstances, the DPS should be between 30% to 70% of the EPS.



Happy Investing

There is a better way to get wealthy: pick dividned growth stocks

How To Pick Dividend Growth Stocks – A Fully Revealed Model

KEY IDEAS

1. An explanation of what dividend stocks can help you accomplish.
2. 5 steps to better dividend stock investing.
3. How to use the quadrant strategy.

Editor Note: This is a guest post from Mike who manages dividend growth stocks portfolios. (affiliate link) He reveals his entire dividend stock investment model for free in this extremely valuable, educational article. It is a complete system for dividend growth stock selection. Take it away Mike…

I started investing back in 2003 when the bull market made everything easy.

Between 2003 and 2006, I made enough money to buy my first house with a 25% down payment. Those were the good years.

While I spent numerous hours in front of my computer analyzing trends and company fundamentals to become a successful investor, many other investors just picked stocks based on the news and made almost the same returns. The economy was booming, and we were able to find stocks doubling within the year.

Then 2008 Happened

I was somewhat lucky when the 2008 bear market occurred because most of my investments were cashed out in 2007 to buy my second house. Even though I was still hit by a -27% drop in my portfolio, the total dollar loss wasn’t too bad because my account was much smaller.

Anyway, I was too busy working my way up the corporate ladder and completing my MBA to worry about it. I didn’t have much time to invest my money.

From 2003 to 2008, I had a very aggressive investing model making a few trades per month on average. I was fast on pulling the buy and sell trigger in order to generate more profit.

But after 2008, the game changed and I didn’t have enough time to continue with my original investing plan. Plus, losing 27% of my portfolio in one quarter had left a sour taste in my mouth. This is what drove me, in 2010, to develop the dividend investing strategy I share with you here.

How I Developed My Own Dividend Growth Model

Over the past 4 years, I’ve continuously tweaked my dividend investing strategyto achieve two goals:

1. Build a powerful portfolio– able to generate both capital and dividend growth
2. Keep it simple but efficient– I wanted to build a simple investing system that works consistently

I’ll tell you upfront, I don’t hold the key to becoming a millionaire through dividend investing. I still make mistakes, but they are rarer and smaller than most investors. This is how I was able to beat the market in 2012 & 2013 with my dividend stock picks.

In 2012, I wrote a very popular book about dividend growth investing, Dividend Growth: Freedom Through Passive Income, and received hundreds of emails. People wanted to take charge of their investment portfolio because they were upset about their advisors’ inability to answer their questions and/or the high fees they were paying. And while I received many different questions, two main points kept coming up:

1. The lack of time to build and manage a solid dividend stocks portfolio
2. A systematic method for buying and selling dividend stocks.

This is when I realized that I had battled with  the same issues and found a way to solve these two essential investing problems. Over the past four years, I’ve worked on an investing strategy that doesn’t take me forever to apply and tells me when to buy and when to sell stocks.

Below I will share that same dividend growth model with you. It’s the same model I’ve used that has performed so well over the past few years.

A Dividend Growth Model That Works

As I’ve previously mentioned, my investing strategy is built on a simple but efficient model. It is relatively straightforward and easy to implement, but it requires discipline. That is the success of my strategy.

Let me break it down step-by-step for you:

Step 1 – Start with Stock Filter Research

I start the investment selection process with a stock filter. I use a paid subscription to Ycharts (no affiliate link here) as it provides an enormous quantity of information. But you can achieve almost the same results with a free stock filter called FinViz.

FIN VIZ stock filter doesn’t provide the 5 year dividend growth metric. This is one of the reasons I use Ychart (and the fact that I can create multiple charts to compare several metrics at the same time!) But if you prefer the free way, you can still select other metrics to pick stocks that will show great dividend growth. Below are the metrics I use:

Valuation:

• Dividend yield: over 3%
• P/E Ratio: under 20
• Forward P/E Ratio: under 20

Company Fundamentals:

• EPS Growth next 5 years: positive
• Return on Equity: over 10%
• Sales Growth past 5 years: positive
• EPS Growth past 5 years: positive
• Payout ratio: under 70%

This is enough to give you a good list to work with. It’s not perfect, but you will discard several bad stocks in a blink of an eye with these filters. (Editor Note: This approach is called stock factor modelling. It will be discussed in greater depth in future posts and podcasts.)

Step 2 – Sort For Sales and Earnings Per Share

Everyone first wants to look at dividend payouts, but I think it’s more important to look at revenues and earnings. If sales are not up, chances are profits won’t keep an uptrend. It’s really common sense: if you can’t generate sufficient cash then how can you pay dividends?

The relationship between sales evolution and earning per shares will tell you 3 things:

1. How is the company’s main market doing (are sales growing?)
2. How are the company’s profits growing (are they making more profit or not?)
3. How are the company’s margins doing (if the sales and EPS graph don’t head in the same direction that can be a red flag)

Below is an example of a combination of EPS and Revenues graph with two different companies in the same industry.

The first is Procter & Gamble (PG)

As you can see right away, there is a call to action to dig deeper inside the financial statements; the sales are going up but the EPS is trailing behind. There must be something hurting the margins or special expenses that won’t happen in the future. You need to get these facts straight before you can consider buying this stock.

However, if you look at Colgate-Palmolive (CL) you will find a more consistent trend (but not perfect):

Step 3 – Analyze Dividend Growth History

Now that you’ve created a list of companies able to pay dividends over the long haul, it’s time to perform some deeper analysis.

The process of choosing final “buy” candidates from your screener list can’t be formulated in a rules-based structure here because it will be different for every investor based on risk preferences, portfolio objectives, and personal preferences. Instead, what I will do is provide several ideas for you to consider in developing a selection process that specifically matches your objectives.

The first thing to do when choosing final “buy” candidates is to download the company’s financial statements. Often, you will find an “Investor Fact Sheet” or “Recap” giving you some key ratios such as Earnings per Share, Sales, Profit, and Dividend Payouts over past years.

If you can’t access this information from investor fact sheets then you’ll have to dig inside the company financial statements. Another alternative is the annual report because it will provide more than one year of information with all the necessary numbers already calculated for you.

I like to use the past 5 years when analyzing dividend growth history. Also, I suggest you make a quick graph of the past 5 years’ dividend payouts instead of simply calculating the dividend annualized growth rate. This will give you a clear idea of which stocks have a strong dividend payout strategy compared to the others. The graph can be as simple as the following:

Which looks a lot better than the following:

The first graph is a good indication of a solid company that is looking to consistently increase its dividend year after year. You want to invest in companies with a favorable dividend policy.

Step 4 – Examine For Sustainability

If this seems like a lot of work, it is important to note that we are only halfway through the process. That is why I offer an affordable alternative that does all of this for you for just $15 per month. (Affiliate link) After all, if picking double digit dividend growth stocks was easy, we would all be rich!

As a quick recap, what we’ve done so far is examined past data with stock screeners and financial statements as an efficient way to clear out the most “unreliable” stocks. Your next step in this process is to examine current information about the company to see if it will be able to increase and sustain its dividend.

• How is the Management?

Something that is ignored too often is the current management team. Have members been there for a while and are they responsible for the previous performance? If so, are they still on board to continue their good work, or are they just trying to get their golden parachute?

The management compensation system explained in the financial statements along with the longevity of the board will help you make up your mind about their competence. If you are lucky, they might even disclose their dividend payout philosophy for the upcoming years. If they put a lot of emphasis on the dividend in their financial statement then that’s a great sign it is a focus that will continue into the future.

• How Does the Company’s Recent Quarterly Performance Look?

Besides pure metrics, which we analyzed in Step #2, recent quarterly results will tell you if the company has been beating analysts’ expectations. In addition to analysts’ opinions, you can check to see if the company is confirming their previous sales guidance. A good site to get this information quickly is Reuters because they usually report when companies comment about their outlook for the upcoming year. This is a good way to interpret the current and forward results.

Your objective in this step is to find companies confirming or increasing their earnings and sales guidance for the upcoming quarters.

• What Projects Are They Currently Pursuing?

While you are looking for financial ratios within the financial statements, also look at their current and future projects as well. A company dominating its sector must always look towards the future. For example, Intel (INTC) has been dominant in the PC world. However, they are experiencing problems entering the tablet and smartphone sectors. Since PC sales are slowing down and INTC is still not able to expand into other markets, future growth will be harder to achieve and margins will likely be reduced.

I personally looked into INTC and saw that they are multiplying their efforts in order to expand their niche into other markets. Following these current projects will tell me if INTC can successfully transition their previous business model (being the leader in processor chips for PCs) to a new business model (which not only includes tablets and smartphones but also servers and hosting services). Again, the goal is sustainability of the dividend and this is yet another quality indicator.

Step 5 – Look To The Future

All of this analysis of past data and company fundamentals serves one purpose – to figure out if the company can continue its dividend payout strategy. It is not a Crystal Ball, but it’s your best indication of future results.

A stable evolution of past sales, earnings and dividend payout ratio are all positive indications for the future dividend. If the company has a proven ability to generate growth and manage earnings then chances are good that their payout ratio will remain stable over time. It’s important to form your own opinion about the company instead of blindly believing what you read.

However, even if everything looks good, it is still important to remember that market and technology innovations can cause bad things to happen to good companies. That’s why you want to determine:

• If the company is solid enough to weather a recession?
• What kind of impact would a sales slowdown and pressure on margins have on the dividend payout?
• Is the company distributing all their profits (i.e. high dividend payout ratio) or is there room for bad luck?

Once you reach this point in the analysis then these questions are easily answered. That’s why it is so important to have your own opinion with the economic facts to back it up.

From Stocks Picks To Dividend Portfolio

Now that you’ve had fun screening stocks and sorting for fundamentals, it’s time to get serious: how do you build your portfolio?

Do you simply invest in a random selection of 20-30 stocks from your list and rake in the dividends? You can certainly do that (I know investors that have a few Dividend Aristocrats and just wait for their quarterly payout), but my experience says you can do a lot better with proper selection.

The purpose of the rest of this article is to provide you with the tools you need to build your portfolio from your final list. These techniques don’t contain the absolute truth, but they will prevent you from mistakenly chasing too much yield or too much growth without properly considering investment fundamentals.

My favorite technique is to build quadrants to compare stocks, use diversification to your advantage – and as a bonus – I’ll also show you how to cheat on your investing strategy.

How To Use The 4 Quadrant Strategy

The first thing you should do when building your portfolio is to test the stocks that passed the screening criteria against 4 different types of quadrant analysis.

Quadrant analysis techniques are used to quickly compare how stocks rank relative to each other. It also reveals specific shortcomings not easily found through other analysis techniques. What is cool about quadrants is that they are easy to use, easy to understand, and don’t require much time.

The idea of building a quadrant system is quite simple: first, you select two characteristics you want to compare (consider dividend yield and dividend payout ratio). Next, you compile the data for both characteristics for all stocks on your shopping list that passed the earlier screens. Once you have all the data, you simply position each stock according to its yield (on the X Axis) and their payout ratio (on the Y Axis). Here’s a quick example:

In this example, it is quite obvious that you would like to see as many of your stock picks in the #4 quadrant (high dividend yield with low payout ratio) as possible. The least attractive quadrant is #1 (low dividend yield with high dividend payout ratio). Within minutes, you can determine which stocks are a good addition to your portfolio and which are not.

Different quadrants can be used to cross-compare related data to see contradictions and inconsistencies thus allowing you to further narrow your shopping list. Companies use quadrants to position their products (high-end vs low-end, mass consumer vs. niche, etc.) We will use them to position your stock.

For example, if you hope to live off dividends one day, you need stocks that:

• Provide a healthy dividend from day one.
• Grow their dividend over time.
• Grow their income over time (so they can keep up with their dividend and provide you with capital growth at the same time).

In order to find those stocks, you would want to use the following four quadrant models…

Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Payout Ratio

The next quadrant we will look at compares the stock’s dividend yield to its ability to continue paying the dividend (the dividend payout ratio). In other words, most dividend investors first look at dividend yield. But instead of chasing yield blindly, like a dog running after a cat that just crossed a boulevard, you should check the dividend payout ratio to make sure your dividend (or your dog) doesn’t get squished!

Using an actual example, I’ve pulled 10 stocks from the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to show you how they compare using this first quadrant analysis. Here’s my data compilation:

Ticker	Dividend Yield	Dividend Payout Ratio
T	5.63%	259.00%
CPB	3.67%	47.20%
HRS	2.93%	21.60%
AFL	2.87%	28.11%
MSFT	2.48%	23.33%
BMY	4.03%	60.96%
GIS	3.09%	40.56%
CVX	3.02%	22.83%
BLK	2.93%	43.39%
GRMN	3.83%	59.62%

As you can see, you have both high and low dividend yields and payout ratios. That doesn’t mean, however, that all of the low yields have a low payout ratio and vice-versa. This is what the quadrant will show you at a glance:

The less attractive quadrants, in my opinion, are above the 100% line. It really doesn’t matter how high the dividend yield is because they’ll eventually have to cut the dividend or sell assets to balance the books when paying out more than 100%.

Since we only have one stock in that category (AT&T), I would go back into their financial statements and calculate their payout ratio myself. Unfortunately, data on payout ratios can be less than accurate when you use free sources (the 259% payout ratio was taken from Yahoo Finance back in April 2012). But T is showing such an attractive yield for a large utility that I think it’s worth a little bit more investigation to understand why the payout ratio is so unsustainably high.

In an ideal world, we would only pick stocks in the #4 quadrant because those stocks should provide high & sustainable dividend yield. Fortunately, many of the stocks on our list are part of this quadrant (GRMN, BMY, CPB, GIS & CVX) and we have three stocks very close (BLK, HRS & AFL). Those stocks show a great combination of good dividend yield with a sustainable payout ratio.

Dividend Yield Vs Dividend Growth

Once you’ve narrowed your shopping list to companies showing sustainable dividend levels, the next step is to sort these same companies for dividend yield compared to dividend growth.

The goal is to find high dividend yield-payers with low payout ratios that also show 5 year dividend growth. Conversely, you want to avoid companies with a temporarily high dividend because its price has been devalued due to recent news or a market downtrend.

When comparing dividend yield and dividend growth over 5 years, you want to pick the highest yield with the highest dividend growth. Continuing the same example, here is my data for the following quadrant:

Ticker	Dividend Yield	5 Yr Dividend Growth
T	5.63%	5.05%
CPB	3.67%	8.83%
HRS	2.93%	22.69%
AFL	2.87%	15.80%
MSFT	2.48%	13.63%
BMY	4.03%	-2.24%
GIS	3.09%	11.13%
CVX	3.02%	8.86%
BLK	2.93%	23.85%
GRMN	3.83%	31.95%

You can already guess that BMY will get eliminated in this analysis. Here’s the quadrant:

This time, the most interesting quadrant is #2 because it provides stocks with high dividend yield and high dividend growth. GRMN is a great example. However, we also have BLK, HRS & AFL showing a strong dividend growth (over 10%) with a divided yield closer to 3%. CVX and CPB are close runner-ups because of decent dividend growth too (8.86% and 8.83%). You can see that, for a second time, MSFT is being penalized in this analysis due to a low dividend yield compare to other stocks.

Use this quadrant analysis to build your portfolio. More aggressive investors might ignore MSFT, while retirees might consider it a reasonable choice because of its leadership position within its industry accompanied by strong dividend stats.

5 Years Dividend Growth Vs. 5 Years Revenue Growth

The first two quadrants showed you stocks offering a combination of attractive dividend yield and dividend growth. The next two quadrants will take a different look at the same stocks to determine if they can sustain their dividend level over time.

Why compare the five years dividend growth with the five years revenue growth? Because the first depends on the latter. Since dividends are paid with after tax income, you want to make sure the company has enough funds to maintain its dividend payouts. More importantly, it will tell you more about the dividend distribution strategy of the company.

Low dividend growth combined with high revenue growth (quadrant #1) demonstrates that the company is in a growth stage. The company believes it’s best to use cash flow to push the company to another level instead of giving back to the shareholders. This might be good if capital gains are your goal, but it’s not desirable when seeking dividend growth.

Alternatively, high dividend growth with negative revenue growth (quadrant #4) demonstrates that something is wrong and requires further investigation. In these situations the company dividend payout ratio will increase over time, which is not a good sign for an investor.

The perfect scenario would be to find a company with a steady dividend growth and revenue growth at a similar level. This tells you that the company is growing and has the intention of giving money back to its shareholders at the same time. Staying with the same sample stock list, below is the data:

Ticker	5 Yr Dividend Growth	5 Yr Revenue Growth
T	5.05%	-18.83%
CPB	8.83%	6.83%
HRS	22.69%	21.91%
AFL	15.80%	7.20%
MSFT	13.63%	17.63%
BMY	-2.24%	28.37%
GIS	11.13%	13.27%
CVX	8.86%	11.50%
BLK	23.85%	26.17%
GRMN	31.95%	2.61%

Before looking at the quadrant, you can already see that BLK and HRS are following an interesting trend on both revenue and dividend growth. Now let’s take a look at the big picture:

Notice how things get clear on a great graph?

We have only 2 stocks in quadrant #2 showing both strong dividend and revenue growth; however, we also have 3 interesting stocks (MSFT, GIS & CVX) in quadrant #1 showing a great combination. We can also see that BMY & T are far from being in a strong position in this quadrant. GRMN obviously shows a shift in direction while they have decided to become a “strong dividend-payer” over the past several years. This is quite logical for an established company with a lot of cash flow (after powerful dividend growth over 5 years, their payout ratio is now at 59%).

P/E Ratio Vs. 5 Year Income Growth

The last quadrant (but not the least) compares the P/E ratio with 5 year income growth. It’s like comparing future assumptions with past results.

The P/E ratio is the current evaluation of a stock by the market – the future assumptions. A high P/E ratio means that the market is anticipating strong growth. You will more likely find overvalued stocks in this category (just think of RIM a few years ago). The historical P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 16. Anything over 20 means the market is pricing in a great deal of growth making the stock much riskier for decline in the event of a disappointment.

On the other side, a low P/E ratio is consistent with a stock evolving in a mature industry, or occurs when a stock is undervalued. It is obviously tricky to determine which stocks are priced correctly or not. Also, please keep in mind that the P/E ratio will be greatly affected by the stock market’s assumptions.

For example, after two years of deceiving financial results, RIM has traded at a P/E ratio as low as 3.81! This doesn’t mean that the company is undervalued; it means that the market doesn’t believe the company can keep up with its previous results!

This quadrant will help you find stocks with the lowest P/E ratio relative to the highest income growth. In other words, it helps you find growth without paying a premium.

Ticker	P/E Ratio	5 Yr Income Growth
T	14.33	19.59%
CPB	12.44	0.09%
HRS	9.61	8.17%
AFL	7.28	20.20%
MSFT	11.9	11.21%
BMY	15.07	6.41%
GIS	16.04	6.29%
CVX	8.13	7.21%
BLK	17.29	23.02%
GRMN	17.4	14.79%

With this quadrant, look for stocks in quadrant #1 (low P/E ratio with positive income growth). Those stocks are more likely evolving in a stable environment (this is why their P/E ratio is lower) making them lower risk, but with income growth (so they are able to increase their dividends). Those types of companies will likely only become stronger over time:

This quadrant highlights AFL as being the only stock with a high income growth and low P/E ratio. This is also related to the fact that AFL is evolving in the financial industry. Stocks like BMY and GIS are quite deceiving because they are trading at higher P/E ratios without showing strong income growth.

This quadrant will help you choose stocks in terms of their past growth showing how much you are paying for expected future growth. For example, GRMN had an interesting 5 year growth and is expected to grow in the future… unless the stock is overvalued. As long as you stay under a P/E of 20, you should be playing in a relatively safe playground.

Cross Referencing the Quadrants

Now that you know how to use the four quadrants, the most important thing is touse all four of them!

Don’t get complacent and use one or two comparative measures. Use all four of them to paint a complete picture. Don’t jump to a conclusion and don’t be afraid to look into financial statements once in a while to understand how a stock might be less attractive in one quadrant compared to the others.

By cross referencing the 4 quadrants, you will find certain stocks that keep showing up with desirable combinations of characteristics such as GRMN, BLK and AFL. While none of the 10 stocks are strong in all aspects, those 3 stocks have a better “batting average” than the others.

Other stocks might look promising based on the fact that they passed the screener and measured well on a couple different quadrants thus requiring deeper research to understand the inconsistencies. Stocks on the “to be researched further” list include CVX, MSFT and HRS. These are three mature companies leading their respective markets. They should be on your “stocks on the radar list” according to the screener and quadrant analysis.

Finally, you have other stocks that didn’t quality half of the time or more (T, BMY, GIS and CPB). I would just eliminate these because they miss the target on important metrics. It doesn’t mean that they are not interesting stocks, but when your goal is reliable dividend growth there are better purchases.

So out of 10 stocks and 4 quadrants, you have:

• 3 very interesting picks (GRMN, BLK & AFL)
• 3 “further research” picks (CVX, MSFT & HRS)
• 4 “not very interesting” picks (T, BMY, GIS, CPB)

Doing this exercise can require some time as you first need to put all of your stocks in an excel spread sheet, then find all the metrics and create your quadrants. In order to do it, here’s a very easy tutorial for excel users:

• Create a table as shown in this book (ticker, metric #1, metric #2)
• Select data only in metric #1 and metric #2 (the 2 columns)
• Click on “insert”, then “other charts” and select “X Y (Scatter)”

• You’ll get your points in a graph. You select Chart Layouts and take the circled one in the second line of options.

• Then, you simply have to print it and add the stock name besides each dot and you have your quadrant!

Using Dividend Stocks Rock to Facilitate Your Investing Process

If you are thinking, “Wow, that looks like a lot of work”, then you would be right.

Yes, it takes time and effort to first complete all the factor screening to create a dividend stock shopping list and then further sort for quality and consistency using company fundamentals and then quadrant analysis.

After teaching this method to many people the one consistent response was, “Interesting. I like it, but is there a way for me to just pay you to do it for me?”

And so that is why I’ve developed a membership web site that does exactly that. (Affiliate link) If you want to do it yourself, you have all the knowledge you need in this article. I gave it to your freely. You don’t need me because this is the complete recipe. Nothing held back.

However, if you want someone to do all the screening and quadrant analysis for you then I’ve built a website that does exactly that by allowing you to:

• Search through my pre-screened stock lists,
• Monitor my model portfolio performance,
• Read my stock commentary every two weeks,
• Know exactly when any company in my model portfolio provides quarterly reports,
• Benefit from my unique stock ranking system.

You can get to this website here and it simply does what I taught you here at such a low price that it really doesn’t make sense for you to do it yourself. (Affiliate link)

I hope you found the ideas in this article helpful for your dividend growth stocks investing strategy.

http://financialmentor.com/investment-advice/dividend-growth-stocks-investing/12356

http://www.dividendstocksrock.com/buildyourownportfolio/?hop=finlmentor