Know your Investment Profile

Your investment profile

Define your investment profile by identifying:
1.  Your goals and constraints
2.  Your risk ability and tolerance
3.  Your cognitive biases and their impact on your emotions.


Profiling:  everyone is unique

Differences go beyond the level of wealth and stem from:

• 1.  Age
• 2.  Education
• 3.  Phase of life
• 4.  Profession
• 5.  ...

Financial situation as the core of your profile

1.  A very wealthy person with relatively little planned expenses

• Will be able to take considerable investment risk, as you have enough funds aside to absorb potential losses.
• Will be said to have a "high risk ability"

2.  A person with limited wealth and a large part of his assets reserved for financial commitments:

• Can only take limited investment risk, as he lacks funds to cover potential losses
• Will be said to have a "low risk ability"

Ranking the objectives is also key

1.  List your objectives and rank them by degree of priority:

• Saving for retirement
• Providing for children's education
• Purchasing real estate objects

2.  Risk tolerance will be:

• High for less important objectives
• Low for important objectives

Investment horizon:  the longer, the better!

1.  The longer the investment horizon, the higher the risk ability

• .... as investments may recover from potential losses

2.  The shorter the investment horizon, the lower the risk ability

• .....  as investments cannot recover from potential losses.

3.  Unless you want to speculate ... but at your own risk!

Cognitive biases and the 3 steps in investing

Cognitive biases affect investment decisions when:

1.  Defining the investment universe

• Choosing which asset classes / securities are taken into consideration

2.  Constructing the optimal investment strategy

• Forecasting expecting returns and risk

3.  Adjusting and rebalancing the portfolio.

Cognitive biases:  defining the investment universe

When defining the assets universe you want to invest in:

• You tend to over-invest in local companies (home bias)
• You tend to overweight recent information (recency bias)

You should get out of your comfort zone and do extensive research on securities which may not necessarily be close to your home, nor provide readily available information.

Cognitive biases:  constructing the portfolio

When making forecasts:

• You may be influenced by recent data, which may not be relevant (anchoring bias)
• You tend to be over-confident (overestimating expected returns and / or underestimating risk)
• You tend to look for evidence which will confirm our beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them (confirmation bias)

Look for the black swan!

Cognitive biases:  rebalancing

When rebalancing the portfolio:

• You tend to overestimate the value of assets you own and underestimate the value of (similar) assets you do not own (endowment effect)
• You tend to sell winning positions too soon and hold onto losing positions for too long (disposition effect)

The right question to ask yourself

For example:  

You bought 1000 Nokia shares at 30 EUR.  The stock goes to 60 .. and then drops to 20 EUR.  The question to ask yourself is:

"If I had 20,000 EUR today, would I purchase 1000 Nokia shares?"

• If you answer "yes", then keep the position.
• If you answer "no", then sell it.

Conclusions

Before constructing a portfolio, you need to define your

• Objectives
• Risk ability and tolerance

You should be aware that you are influenced by cognitive biases which may lead to sub-optimal investment decisions.

You should try to adjust as much as possible for these biases.

Investment Constraints

Liquidity

Liquidity refers to the ability to readily convert investments into cash at a price close to fair market value.

Investors may require ready cash to meet unexpected needs and could be forced to sell their assets at unfavourable terms if the investment plan does not consider their liquidity needs.

Time Horizon

Time horizon refers to the time period between putting funds into an investment and requiring them for use.  

A close relationship exists between an investor's time horizon, liquidity needs and ability to take risk.
The shorter the time horizon the harder it would be for an investor to overcome losses.

Tax Concerns

Tax concerns play a very important role in investment planning because, unlike tax-exempt investors, taxable investors are really only concerned with after-tax returns on their portfolios.

Legal and Regulatory Factors

Investors also need to be aware of legal and regulatory factors.

For example, some countries impose a limit on the proportion of equity securities in a pension fund's portfolio.

Unique Circumstances

There may be a number of individual and unusual considerations that affect investors.

For example, many investors may want to exclude certain investments from their portfolios based on personal or socially conscious reasons.

Cyclical losses from economic cycles, time horizon and retirement planning

The value of assets such as stocks and real estate increases on average over the long run.

It also tends to fluctuate in waves - it will go up for a while, then down a little, then up some more and down again.

If you are not careful these waves can make you seasick, metaphorically speaking, of course.

If you watch these cycles happen but aren't aware of how to manage your response, you could find yourself making poor financial decisions as a result or even attempting to retire shortly after a devastating economic collapse, as happened to many people after the 2008 financial collapse.

What are the ways to prevent this from happening?




YOUR TIME HORIZON AND ECONOMIC CYCLES

The main thing to consider is your time horizon - the number of years you have remaining before your planned retirement date.

When you are young and first begin saving for retirement, it is easy to take a lot of risk without worrying about CYCLICAL LOSSES, because you think you will have more than enough time to regain that value.

This is a mistake a lot of people make, as they sell all their investments when the economy crashes, forgetting that economies eventually recover.

A recession is the worst time to sell your investments because you will get the worst possible price for them, for the reason of a national economic cycle rather than anything inherent to the investments themselves.



DON'T CONFUSE ECONOMIC CYCLES WITH TROUBLED INVESTMENTS

It is important, however, that you don't confuse economic cycles with troubled investments.

If your investments are doing poorly in a strong economy, consistently underperform or otherwise give you a reason to believe that the price won't recover, then don't stay on a sinking ship - sell those investments and buy something better.

Losses resulting from economic cycles, such as recessions, will recover; so remain persistent.

After you get some practice and become familiar with these cycles, you can even sell your investments just as they begin and then rebuy them when they lose a lot of their value, maximizing your wealth.

Another approach is then to sell them again slowly as their price recovers.

This reduces some of the risk associated with the economy's uncertain movements - something which so many people struggle to predict, even experts.

If you know how to ride these cyclical waves in the economy, you can actually use them to your advantage, but even if you just hold onto your investments and wait out the recession, you will regain the value eventually.



FINANCIAL PLANNING NEARING RETIREMENT

These cycles only really pose a risk to people who are getting ready to retire in the middle of one.

This is why you should absolutely manage a shift in the types of investment you hold as you get closer to your retirement.

When you are young, more volatile investments like equity index funds will give you the highest growth rates, even though the price roller coaster may make you dizzy.

As you get closer to your retirement date, the timing of these cycles can be very unfortunate, leaving you with little money to fund your retirement; so over the years you should gradually switch from high-risk to low-risk investments.

This means that you should regularly increase the percentage of your total investments that are allocated to things like low-risk bonds, fixed-rate annuities or even high-yield bank accounts.

That way, by the time you are ready to retire, the fluctuations in the economy will have little influence on the value of your investments.

This process of gradual risk reduction will help to give you the highest returns on your investments, while carefully managing the amount of risk to which you are exposed.

Here’s what Warren Buffett said how he got so rich

Here’s what Warren Buffett said when Tony Robbins asked him how he got so rich

NOV. 16, 2015, 1:30 AM

Billionaire Warren Buffett hasn’t always been as incredibly rich as he is today — in fact, 99% of his wealth was earned after his 50th birthday. Everyone has to start somewhere, even the wealthiest, most successful people.

The investing legend has been slowly building his fortune over the years, and today, the 85-year-old billionaire is one of the richest men in the world, with an estimated net worth of over $60 billion.

How did he come to earn such a mind-blowing amount of money?

Motivational speaker and author of “MONEY: Master The Game,” Tony Robbins, decided to ask him.

“I asked Warren Buffett — I said, ‘What made you the wealthiest man in the world?’” he tells entrepreneur and business coach Lewis Howes in an episode of his podcast,”The School of Greatness.”

“And he smiled at me and said, ‘Three things: Living in America for the great opportunities, having good genes so I lived a long time, and compound interest.”

Buffett has always been an advocate of keeping things simple and focusing on the long-term — that’s why he recommends low-cost index funds. 

One of the keys to Buffett’s wealth is simply time — 60 plus years of smart investing has allowed him to reap the benefits of compound interest.

Compound interest is when the interest earned on your investments earns interest itself — it’s what causes wealth to rapidly snowball, and in Buffett’s case, snowball to billions and billions of dollars.

Read more at http://www.businessinsider.my/how-warren-buffett-got-rich-2015-11/#S8a8PGvZDpxjKKZC.99

Portfolio Management - Return Objectives and Investment Constraints

Return objectives can be divided into the following needs:

1. Capital Preservation - Capital preservation is the need to maintain capital. To accomplish this objective, the return objective should, at a minimum, be equal to the inflation rate. In other words, nominal rate of return would equal the inflation rate. With this objective, an investor simply wants to preserve his existing capital.

2. Capital Appreciation -Capital appreciation is the need to grow, rather than simply preserve, capital. To accomplish this objective, the return objective should be equal to a return that exceeds the expected inflation. With this objective, an investor's intention is to grow his existing capital base.
3. Current Income -Current income is the need to create income from the investor's capital base. With this objective, an investor needs to generate income from his investments. This is frequently seen with retired investors who no longer have income from work and need to generate income off of their investments to meet living expenses and other spending needs.

4. Total Return - Total return is the need to grow the capital base through both capital appreciation and reinvestment of that appreciation.

Investment ConstraintsWhen creating a policy statement, it is important to consider an investor's constraints. There are five types of constraints that need to be considered when creating a policy statement. They are as follows:

1. Liquidity Constraints - Liquidity constraints identify an investor's need for liquidity, or cash. For example, within the next year, an investor needs $50,000 for the purchase of a new home. The $50,000 would be considered a liquidity constraint because it needs to be set aside (be liquid) for the investor.
2. Time Horizon - A time horizon constraint develops a timeline of an investor's various financial needs. The time horizon also affects an investor's ability to accept risk. If an investor has a long time horizon, the investor may have a greater ability to accept risk because he would have a longer time period to recoup any losses. This is unlike an investor with a shorter time horizon whose ability to accept risk may be lower because he would not have the ability to recoup any losses.
3. Tax Concerns - After-tax returns are the returns investors are focused on when creating an investment portfolio. If an investor is currently in a high tax bracket as a result of his income, it may be important to focus on investments that would not make the investor's situation worse, like investing more heavily in tax-deferred investments.

4. Legal and Regulatory - Legal and regulatory factors can act as an investment constraint and must be considered. An example of this would occur in a trust. A trust could require that no more than 10% of the trust be distributed each year. Legal and regulatory constraints such as this one often can't be changed and must not be overlooked.

5. Unique Circumstances - Any special needs or constraints not recognized in any of the constraints listed above would fall in this category. An example of a unique circumstance would be the constraint an investor might place on investing in any company that is not socially responsible, such as a tobacco company.

The Importance of Asset AllocationAsset Allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among major asset categories such as bonds, stocks or cash. The purpose of asset allocation is to reduce risk by diversifying the portfolio. 

The ideal asset allocation differs based on the risk tolerance of the investor. For example, a young executive might have an asset allocation of 80% equity, 20% fixed income, while a retiree would be more likely to have 80% in fixed income and 20% equities.
Citizens in other countries around the world would have different asset allocation strategies depending on the types and risks of securities available for placement in their portfolio. For example, a retiree located in the United States would most likely have a large portion of his portfolio allocated to U.S. treasuries, since the U.S. Government is considered to have an extremely low risk of default. On the other hand, a retiree in a country with political unrest would most likely have a large portion of their portfolio allocated to foreign treasury securities, such as that of the U.S.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/portfolio-management/return-objectives-investment-constraints.asp#ixzz1yfCssLbg

Portfolio Management - The Portfolio Management Process

The portfolio management process is the process an investor takes to aid him in meeting his investment goals.

The procedure is as follows:

1. Create a Policy Statement -A policy statement is the statement that contains the investor's goals and constraints as it relates to his investments.
2. Develop an Investment Strategy - This entails creating a strategy that combines the investor's goals and objectives with current financial market and economic conditions.
3. Implement the Plan Created -This entails putting the investment strategy to work, investing in a portfolio that meets the client's goals and constraint requirements.
4. Monitor and Update the Plan -Both markets and investors' needs change as time changes. As such, it is important to monitor for these changes as they occur and to update the plan toadjust for the changes that have occurred.

Policy StatementA policy statement is the statement that contains the investor's goals and constraints as it relates to his investments. This could be considered to be the most important of all the steps in the portfolio management process.The statement requires the investor to consider his true financial needs, both in the short run and the long run. It helps to guide the investment portfolio manager in meeting the investor's needs. When there is market uncertainty or the investor's needs change, the policy statement will help to guide the investor in making the necessary adjustments the portfolio in a disciplined manner.

Expressing Investment Objectives in Terms of Risk and ReturnReturn objectives are important to determine. They help to focus an investor on meeting his financial goals and objectives. However, risk must be considered as well. An investor may require a high rate of return. A high rate of return is typically accompanied by a higher risk. Despite the need for a high return, an investor may be uncomfortable with the risk that is attached to that higher return portfolio. As such, it is important to consider not only return, but the risk of the investor in a policy statement.

Factors Affecting Risk ToleranceAn investor's risk tolerance can be affected by many factors:

• Age- an investor may have lower risk tolerance as they get older and financial constraints are more prevalent.
• Family situation - an investor may have higher income needs if they are supporting a child in college or an elderly relative.
• Wealth and income - an investor may have a greater ability to invest in a portfolio if he or she has existing wealth or high income.
• Psychological - an investor may simply have a lower tolerance for risk based on his personality.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/portfolio-management/portfolio-management-process.asp#ixzz1yfBLNFTr

Top 10 Things to Do Before You Invest

Top 10 Things to Do Before You Invest
by Michele Cagan, CPA

1. Pay off every penny of credit card debt. You'll earn sky-high (18 to 22 percent!) returns just by paying your credit card balance in full rather than making the minimum monthly interest-laden payments.

2. Build yourself an emergency fund. Start a separate bank account for this purpose alone. It should have enough money to cover at least three to six months of living expenses.

3. Set up and follow a household budget. Keep track of where your money comes from and (even more important) where it's going.

4. Set clear financial goals. Whether you want to save for a new car this year or retirement twenty years from now, you need to know why you're investing.

5. Determine your time frame. How long your money will be working for you plays a key role in designing the best portfolio.

6. Know your risk tolerance. Investing can bring about as many downs as ups, and you have to know just how much uncertainty you can comfortably stand.

7. Figure out your asset allocation mix. Before you start investing, know what proportion of your portfolio will be dedicated to each asset class (like stocks, bonds, and cash, for example).

8. Improve your understanding of the markets. That includes learning about the big picture, such as the global political and economic forces that drive the markets and affect asset prices.

9. Set up your brokerage account. Whether you decide to start out with a financial advisor or take a more do-it-yourself approach, you'll need to have an open brokerage account before you can make your first trade.

10. Analyze every investment before you buy it. Buy only investments that you have researched and fully understand; never risk your money on an unknown.

http://www.netplaces.com/investing/planning-for-success/top-ten-things-to-do-before-you-invest-1.htm

Time horizon and Compounding ("Give me back my Youth!"

Redefining Investor Risk

by Troy Adkins 

You have probably been told by many financial advisors that your risk tolerance should be a function of your investment time horizon. This belief is touted by almost everyone in the financial services industry, because it is predominately accepted that if you plan to invest for a long period of time, you can make more risky investments. However, before blindly accepting this theory as factual truth, let's look at four ways in which risk can be defined. After thinking about risk from these four different perspectives, you may reach a different conclusion about investing. (Forget the clichés and uncover how much volatility you can really stand. To learn more, see Personalizing Risk Tolerance.)

Risk Theory No.1: Risk is Reduced if You Have More Time to Recoup Your Losses
Some people believe that if you have a long time horizon, you can take on more risk, because if something goes wrong with your investment, you will have time to recoup your losses. When risk is looked at in this manner, risk does indeed decrease as the time horizon increases. However, if you accept this definition of risk, it is recommended that you keep track of the loss on your investment, as well as the opportunity cost that you gave up by not investing in a risk free security. This is important because you need to know not only how long it will take you to recoup the loss on your investment, but also how long it will take you to recoup the loss associated with not investing in a product that can generate a guaranteed rate of return, such as a government bond.

Risk Theory No.2: A Longer Time Horizon Decreases Risk by Reducing the Standard Deviation of the Investment
You may have also heard that risk decreases as the time horizon increases, because the standard deviation of an investment's compounded average annual return decreases as the time horizon increases, due to mean reversions. This definition of risk is based on two important statistical theories. The first theory is known as the law of large numbers, which states that the likelihood of an investor's actual average return achieving its long run historical average return increases as the time horizon increases – basically, the larger the sample size, the more likely the average results are to occur. The second theory is the central limit theorem of probability theory, which states that as the sample size increases, which in this context means as the time horizon increases, the sampling distribution of sample means approaches that of a normal distribution.

You may have to ponder theses concepts for a period of time before you comprehend their implications about investing. However, the law of large numbers simply implies that the dispersion of returns around an investment's expected return will decrease as the time horizon increases. If this concept is true, then risk must also decrease as the time horizon increases, because in this case, dispersion, measured by variation around the mean, is the measure of risk. Moving one step further, the practical implications of the central limit theorem of probability theory stipulates that if an investment has a standard deviation of 20% for the one-year period, its volatility would be reduced to its expected value as time increases. As you can see from these examples, when the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem of probability theory are taken into account, risk, as measured by standard deviation, does indeed appear to decrease as the time horizon is lengthened.

Unfortunately, the application of these theories is not directly applicable in the investment world, because the law of large number requires too many years of investing before the theory would have any real world implications. Moreover, the central limit theorem of probability theory does not apply in this context because empirical evidence shows that a constant standard deviation is an inaccurate measure of investment risk, due to the fact that investment performance, is typically skewed and exhibits kurtosis. This in turn means that investment performance is not normally distributed, which in turn nullifies the central limit theorem of probability theory. In addition, investment performance is typically subject to heteroskedasticity, which in turn greatly hinders the usefulness of using standard deviation as a measure risk. Given these problems, one should not postulate that risk is reduced by time, at least not based on the premise of these two theories. (For more information on how statistics can help you invest, check out Stock Market Risk: Wagging The Tails.)

An additional problem occurs when investment risk is measured using standard deviation, as it is based on the position that you will make a one-time investment and hold that exact investment over the length of the time horizon. Given that most investors employ dollar-cost averaging strategies that entail ongoing periodic investment contributions, the theories do not apply. This is because every time a new investment contribution is made, that portion is subject to another standard deviation than the rest of that investment. In addition, most investors tend to use investment products such as mutual funds, and these types of products constantly change their underlying securities over time. As a result, the underlying concepts associated with these theories do not apply when investing.

Risk Theory No.3: Risk Increases as the Time Horizon Increases
If you define risk as the probability of having an ending value that is close to what you expect to have at a certain point in time, then risk actually does increase as the time horizon increases. This phenomenon is attributed to the fact that the magnitude of potential losses increases as the time horizon increases, and this relationship is properly captured when measuring risk by using continuously compounded total returns. Since most investors are concerned about the probability of having a certain amount of money at a certain period of time, given a specific portfolio allocation, it seems logical to measure risk in this manner.

Based on Monte Carlo simulation observational analysis, a greater dispersion in potential portfolio outcomes manifests itself as both the probability up and down movements built into the simulation increase, and as the time horizon lengthens. Monte Carlo simulation will generate this outcome because financial market returns are uncertain, and therefore the range of returns on either side of the median projected return can be magnified due to compounding multi year effects. Furthermore, a number of good years can quickly be wiped out by a bad year.

Risk Theory No.4: The Relationship Between Risk and Time from the Standpoint of Common Sense
Moving away from academic theory, common sense would suggest that the risk of any investment increases as the length of the time horizon increases simply because future events are hard to forecast. To prove this point, you can look at the list of companies that made up the Dow Jones Industrial Average back when it was formed in 1896. What you will find is that only one company that was part of the index in 1896 is still a component of the index today. That company is General Electric. The other companies have been bought out, broken up by the government, removed by the Dow Jones Index Committee or have gone out of business.

More current examples that support this empirical position are the recent demise of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns. Both of these companies were well established Wall Street banks, yet their operational and business risks ultimately led them into bankruptcy. Given these examples, one should surmise that time does not reduce the unsystematic risk associated with investing. (This company survived many financial crises in its long history. Find out what finally drove it to bankruptcy. Read Case Study: The Collapse of Lehman Brothers.)

Moving away from a historical view of the relationship between risk and time to a view that may help you understand the true relationship between risk and time, ask yourself two simple questions: First, "How much do you think an ounce of gold will cost at the end of this year?" Second, "How much do you think an ounce of gold will cost 30 years from now?" It should be obvious that there is much more risk in trying to accurately estimate how much gold will cost in the distant future, because there are a multitude of potential factors that may have a compounded impact on the price of gold over time.

Conclusion
Empirical examples such as these make a strong case that time does not reduce risk. Given this position, investors should reach a very important conclusion when looking at the relationship between risk and time from the standpoint of investing. You cannot reduce your risk by lengthening your time horizon. Therefore, the only way you can mitigate the impact of unsystematic risk, is by developing a broadly diversified portfolio.

by Troy Adkins (Contact Author | Biography)

Mr. Adkins is a senior investment analyst with a global tactical asset management firm. He works and resides in New York City. He has a diverse background and more than 10 years of investment experience.

Filed Under: Investing Basics, Investment

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/investors-need-to-know-risk-time.asp

Understanding Risk And Time Horizon (video)

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Understanding Risk And Time Horizon

The interaction between your risks and your time horizon influ...

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/risk-and-time-horizon


The interaction between your risks and your time horizon influences every investment decision you make, whether you know it or not. Learn the basics here. Read: Redefining Investor Risk

What Is Your Risk Tolerance?

It is conventional wisdom that a younger investor can take more risk than an older investor thanks to a longer time horizon. While this may be true in general, there are many other considerations that come into play. Just because you are 65 doesn't mean you should shift your investment portfolio to conservative investments. Growing life expectancies and advancing medical science mean that today's 65-year-old investor may still have a time horizon of more than 20 years.

So, how does an individual investor determine his or her risk tolerance? Let's take a look.

Read on here.

Investing with the big picture in mind

Investing with the big picture in mind
Posted on November 6, 2010, Saturday

YOU don’t have to be an expert to get started, but it helps to know the basics before you set a plan for investing. Since the whole idea of investing can be overwhelming and intimidating for anyone who has never done it, try taking small steps.

Here are some basic Do’s

•Do:

•Get some financial education.

•Invest some time, then money.

•Read books and newspapers.

Attend seminars.

Get together with other like-minded people to learn about investment choices including the stock market, property or even a business.

You might also consider hiring a professional, like a financial planner to go through your current financial situation and goals, and work out a detailed financial plan for you. Besides giving you a professional perspective of your financial health, a good financial planner will know the kind of products in the market that will suit you.

But professional help doesn’t come cheap. So the best option would be to get a recommendation from neutral or independent sources such as the Financial Planning Association of Malaysia (FPAM) or the Securities Commission Malaysia before settling on a planner.

Always remember the three important principles of investing:

1. Investment Goals

What is the purpose of your investment? Is it to achieve high dividend yields or a consistent income yield? Once you’ve determined your short-term and long-term objectives, you can identify suitable investments, the level of risk you can tolerate, and what your expectations are.

2. Know your risk tolerance

High returns come with equally high risk. Realise your ability and willingness to lose some or all of your original investment in exchange for greater potential returns.

If you’re an aggressive investor, or one with a high-risk tolerance, a well-diversified equity fund should take up the majority of your portfolio. If you can take on only a moderate degree of risk, then perhaps a hybrid investment plan such as a 50:50 investment portfolio in a moderate risk fund with significant cash savings in a bank account is your calling.

3. Time horizon

Decide on how long you intend to invest and what stage of your life you’re at. If you are saving up for your daughter’s education in which you will need it in the near future such as within five years, then, you would likely to take on less risk because of a shorter time horizon. Also, maintain at least six month’s income in an easily accessible deposit account or put your money in liquid investments such as unit trust funds. This will allow you to have access to your money in the event of emergencies.

Here are two examples* to give you a general idea:

Scenario 1:

Sharon decides to start investing a sum of RM500 monthly, in an investment vehicle that will yield her an average of eight per cent per annum over the next 30 years till retirement. At the end of 30 years, the total sum of her investment would have amounted to RM750,000.

Scenario 2:

If Sharon decides to start investing five years later, a sum of RM500 monthly, in a similar investment vehicle that will yield her an average of eight per cent per annum over a period of 25 years till retirement, her total nest egg would have only amounted to RM478,000 due to the loss of an additional five years in compounded growth.

* Source: Investment Calculator from HwangDBS Investment Management corporate website www.hdbsim.com.my/tools/general-investment

This article is brought to you by HwangDBS Investment Management, your Asian Financial Specialists; we believe you deserve to live the life you want.

http://www.theborneopost.com/?p=73323

Institutional and retail investors in the GCC have short time horizons compared to global benchmarks

Friday 4th, June 2010 -- 23:20 GMT
Invesco Middle East Asset Management Study finds a consistently high demand for emerging markets across the region

Posted: 26-05-2010 , 09:35 GMT

Invesco Asset Management Limited today unveiled the findings of its inaugural Invesco Middle East Asset Management Study. This regional study is the first of its kind and reveals a fascinating insight into the complex and sophisticated investment habits of this continually evolving region. The company, who opened its Dubai office in 2005, has been working with Middle East clients for decades, offering financial institutions and investment professionals access to global investment expertise.

Surveying the attitudes and behaviours of both institutional and retail markets across the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, the study revealed a number of key findings:
• There is currently a consistently high demand for emerging markets across all companies and territories
• Institutional and retail investors in the GCC have short time horizons compared to global benchmarks
• Investor location within the GCC has a strong influence on exposure to investment sectors


Interestingly, the study also indicated that both the institutional and retail market are becoming increasingly risk averse.

Nick Tolchard, Head of Invesco Middle East commented: “The Middle East is often portrayed as a homogenous region; this report clearly shows this is not the case, though there are some surprising similarities. The influence of investor location over asset allocation makes it quite clear that the Middle East is a highly diverse investment region.”

He continued: “We believe that this diversity is explained by access to investment products, which varies across the region. Certain markets, such as Saudi Arabia, have restricted access to international investments whereas others, such as the UAE, are dominated by offshore life wrappers with large international fund ranges.”

Investor type also plays a key role in asset allocation, according to the study. In the growing retail market, preferences vary according to distributer. Private client portfolio managers favour global equities and alternative assets, while retail banks prefer local equities and cash and IFAs opt for global equities and cash.

On the institutional side, preferences are even more diverse:
o Sovereign Wealth Funds prefer alternative investments (private equity and hedge funds)
o Institutional investors tend to invest in mainstream asset classes (equities, bonds and cash)
o Corporates (commercial banks and diversified financial services) prefer local over international assets.
o Asset managers prefer property

Commenting on these asset allocation preferences, Nick Tolchard said: “Sovereign Wealth Funds’ preference for private equity and hedge funds may align to opportunistic investment strategies to exploit any short-term market volatility and below average allocations to local securities and commodities is expected given that the source of funding for Sovereign Wealth Funds (government revenue) is heavily dependent on commodity prices and the performance of the local economy.”

In addition, one of the most striking findings is the universal preference for emerging market assets. Across all participants 82% of respondents forecast exposure to emerging markets over the next 3-5 years compared to 30% for North America, 14% for Europe and 8% for Japan. The key driver for this appears to be simply that GCC investors expect returns to exceed those in developed markets.

The Retail and institutional respondents in the GCC are also unified by their perceptions of change in risk appetite – they have indicated that 79% of institutional and 70% of retail investors have changed their attitude to risk in the last six to twelve months and in both cases, more investors have become increasingly risk averse.

In addition, the study indicated that the respondents also share similar very short-term investment time horizons, 38% of retail respondents have a time horizon of less than a year compared to 33% in the institutional market. Of those surveyed, only 12% of institutional respondents have an investment horizon beyond 5 years, significantly below global comparatives for institutional markets.* Invesco believes that the short retail time horizons in the retail market can be explained by the transient nature of retail expatriate clients, investment losses during the global financial crisis and the coverage on Dubai’s debt restructuring. Looking forward it expects retail time horizons to lengthen as markets stabilise, but to remain shorter than global retail benchmarks.

Nick Tolchard explained: “Perhaps the most surprising finding was the short term and highly volatile investment attitudes in the institutional sector. However, this could be explained by nimble and fast moving investment behaviour of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the GCC region, in contrast to other institutional markets which are typically dominated by large insurance and pension funds managing a high proportion of their assets against long-term liabilities.”

He concluded: “The Middle East is a growing investor force in the world and we see this research as part of our strategic commitment to understanding the perspective of investors, as well as the investment and savings culture of the Middle East. We intend to carry out this research on a regular basis, monitoring the retail investment market as it continues to grow, and learning even more about the behaviour and preferences of the highly sophisticated institutions operating in the GCC.”
© 2010 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)

http://www.menareport.com/en/business/316494


Summary:

This research studied the investment and savings culture of the Middle East. It highlights the growing retail investment market and the behaviour and preferences of the highly sophisticated institutions operating in the GCC.

The study indicated that the respondents share similar very short-term investment time horizons, 

• 38% of retail respondents have a time horizon of less than a year compared to 33% in the institutional market. 
• Of those surveyed, only 12% of institutional respondents have an investment horizon beyond 5 years, significantly below global comparatives for institutional markets.

* Invesco believes that the short retail time horizons in the retail market can be explained by

• the transient nature of retail expatriate clients,
• investment losses during the global financial crisis and 
• the coverage on Dubai’s debt restructuring. 

Looking forward it expects retail time horizons to lengthen as markets stabilise, but to remain shorter than global retail benchmarks.

Perhaps the most surprising finding was the short term and highly volatile investment attitudes in the institutional sector. 

• However, this could be explained by nimble and fast moving investment behaviour of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the GCC region, in contrast to other institutional markets which are typically dominated by large insurance and pension funds managing a high proportion of their assets against long-term liabilities.”

Allocate funds wisely, enjoy your golden years

26 Mar 2010, 0427 hrs IST, Lovaii Navlakhi,


Let us take the case study of a 65-year old and analyse the same. Mrs X has Rs 50 lakh and has invested the same in different products. Each of these has different time horizons and varying rates of return; some are taxable and some are tax-free. Mrs X requires Rs 25,000 pm to manage her lifestyle. 

Regular Cash Flow 

At this moment, she may be quite relaxed as her investments are earning more than her required earnings of Rs 25,000 per month. There could be some issues in terms of regularity of the income, as some of the interest payouts are not monthly. Returns from mutual funds may not be regular too, but in this case is a buffer.

Asset Allocation 

The portfolio of Rs 50 lakh has just 12% of the assets in equity, and hence, is a conservative portfolio considering Mrs X’s age. Since this seems sufficient to meet her goals, we are fine with her investment in fixed income instruments to the extent of 88%. There is, of course, a possibility that Mrs X has a running PPF account in which she can deposit the returns from her equity MFs and continue to earn 8% tax-free returns. As one is aware, the maximum that one can add in a PPF account in a financial year is Rs 70,000.

Taxable Income 

The returns from equity MFs by way of dividends are tax free. The income subject to tax amounts to Rs 3,42,500 for the year. However, Mrs X can take benefit of the Rs 1 lakh invested in ELSS under Section 80C (even investment in PPF can get the same benefit, subject to a maximum of Rs 1 lakh at present), and thus have a taxable income of Rs 2,42,500. Since Rs 2,40,000 of income is exempt for senior citizens, Mrs X will pay a tax on only Rs 2,500 @ 10%. Thus, her returns of 8.3% on her portfolio are virtually tax-free.

Liquidity Analysis 

We assume that Mrs X will live to the age of 90 years, and hence she needs this money to last her for the next 25 years. Prima facie, earning a return of Rs 3 lakh per annum does not seem difficult. However, we have not considered the rate of inflation — if it is 6.5% p.a, the funds will last her 20 years. Further, in case she needs Rs 5 lakh as medical emergency, the money will run out in 18 years. An alternative suggestion to Mrs X will be to increase her equity allocation to 25%, and push her portfolio returns to 9% p.a. That way, her funds last her for 25 years, if inflation remains at 5% p.a.

A financial planner will evaluate the portfolio from multiple perspectives such as returns, risks, liquidity, taxability and even longevity; and approaching one could give you peace of mind, and a greater piece of the action on earth. Get one today!

The author is the MD & Chief Financial Planner of International Money Matters Pvt Ltd. 


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5725337.cms

What money means to you? Answer 10 simple questions.

In order to really make your money work for you, it is important to try and get

• to know more about yourself and
• your relationship with money. 

Some "money psychology" should help you to deal with your financial affairs in a smart way.

To find out more about your investment orientation and your relationship with money, answer the 10 simple questions below as honestly as possible.  This will also help set the necessary guidelines for your investment portfolio.

Time horizon
Questions 1 - 5

Risk tolerance
Questions 6 - 8

Investment Objectives
Questions 9 - 10

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tr9oMvjAsDJvkcPgXdd763A&output=html


Your total score tells you more about yourself.

Less than 10:  You cannot afford to make mistakes
Between 10 and 20:  You are carefully weighing up your options.
More than 20:  You want to grow bigger and better.

Time Horizon

What are your major deadlines in life?

 How much time do you have to save and invest before you retire?

Your time horizon is very important when you invest, because compounding works best over a longer period. 

Time and risk are also related. 

If you are young and have many working years ahead of you, you can afford to take bigger risks with your investments than an older person close to retirement.

Be realistic: adjust your investment objectives to fit in with your time horizon and risk tolerance level.

You also have to realise that you need to align your time horizon, risk tolerance and investment objectives. 

You might have a very short time horizon before retirement and a low risk tolerance, you might want to see significant capital growth. 

It is important to be realistic:  you have to adjust your investment objectives to fit in with your time horizon and risk tolerance level.

This also means you will have to find a balance between the risk you are prepared to take and your preferred returns.  Risk and reward are always at opposite end of the scale - the higher the risk, the higher the potential return, and the lower the risk, the lower the expected return.

Therefore, the importance of you knowing more about who you are and how you want your money to work for you at this stage in your life.