Bitcoin's Bull Should Fear Its Other Scarcity Problem

As the value of this asset class rises, generating price spikes becomes increasingly difficult.

The Theory behind Bitcoins

The supply of Bitcoins was set from the start at 21 million.

That means, in the words of its pseudonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto, it should ultimately be "completely inflation free" - making it a far better store of wealth than assets whose real value declines over time.

That's in theory, at least.

Digital currencies are still a tiny share of the world's investments

With the price of Bitcoin climbing as high as $34,792 Sunday (3.1.2021) and putting the value of all coins in circulation at around $647 billion, there is a different scarcity problem looming larger.

It is easier to think about this in terms of asset allocation.

World equity and bond markets  = $217 trillion

World equity markets = $103 trillion

World bond markets = $114 trillion

Bitcoins = 18.6 million coins = $647 billion.

Cryptocurrencies = $884 billion

Investment Gold = $3 trillion

If investors in aggregate decide to put just 0.1% of their stock and bond portfolios into Bitcoin right now, that represents an additional $200 billion or so, chasing the same pile of 18.6 million coins that have been mined to date - enough to push the price well over $40,000.

In that sense, the roller--coaster ride that Bitcoin has ridden in recent years looks almost sedate.

At current prices, all the digital Bitcoins in circulation are equivalent to about 0.6% of the $103 trillion market capitalization of the world's equity markets.

That is higher than the 0.4% allocation when the crypto price last peaked on Dec. 18, 2017 and much higher than levels shy of 0.1% that have prevailed at times since then - but it looks a whole lot less dramatic than the 79% run-up in coin prices from their last peak.

The success of cryptocurrencies tends to eat itself

The problem for digital bulls is that the success of cryptocurrencies tends to eat itself. 

As the value of the asset class rises, the shifts away from more conventional investments needed to provoke price spikes get larger and larger.

Bitcoin versus Gold

Bitcoin on its own is worth about 6 times the 56 million ounces of metal represented by all the contracts outstanding on the Comex 100-ounce gold contract.   

The world's biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, holds about $72 billion of the yellow metal.  

Add in other forms of private investment gold and you've got about $2.87 trillion worth of metal -  but much of that is in the form of bars and coins that aren't easily liquidated when investors want to tweak their portfolios.

Turnover of digital coin derivatives 

Turnover of digital coin derivatives in the September quarter came to $2.7 trillion, according to Tokeninsight, a research company.  

That is not all that far behind the run rate of the world's biggest equity markets.    

The value of all shares traded in Japan in 2019 came to just $5.09 trillion, according to the World Federation of Exchanges, enough to make it the third-largest equity market on that basis.

Hedge Maze

Far from looking like a hedge against equity markets, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P is stronger than for many stock indexes.

Why would you choose to allocate a slice of your stock and bond holdings into a digital currency, instead of more conventional assets?

Once momentum stops driving the price higher, as it inevitably will, the best argument is still the hope that it might balance out the swings in your broader portfolio.  The prospect of Bitcoin becoming that sort of negative beta asset is the most promising way for it to become something more useful than a dice game for investors.

Unfortunately there is still little sign of that happening.  These days it looks not so much like a hedge against the gyrations of the equity market as a leveraged bet on the same movements.

• The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index was 0.767 over the past year - somewhat closer than the link between the S&P and the FTSE 100 index, and substantially tighter than that between U.S. and Hong Kong stocks.  
• Gold's correlation with the S&P 500 was a far lower 0.299, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury index of total sovereign bond returns posted a prized negative beta of minus 0.036.

Crypto will only grow up if and when it finds a different driving force to the animal spirits that govern equity markets.  If it really wants to be an alternative asset to stocks and bonds, it needs to start behaving  like one.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-04/bitcoin-price-surge-creates-a-different-scarcity-problem

January 4, 2021 by David Fickling

Bitcoin Price Surge Creates a Different Scarcity Problem - Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Bulls Should Fear Its Other Scarcity Problem

As the value of this asset class rises, generating price spikes becomes increasingly difficult.

Hedging: It is not always smart to hedge.

Hedging

Market or systematic risk - the risk that the overall stock market could decline - cannot be reduced through diversification but can be limited by hedging.

An investor's choice among many possible hedging strategies depends on the nature of his or her underlying holdings.

• A diversified portfolio of large capitalization stocks, for example, could be effectively hedged through the sale of an appropriate quantity of Standard & Poor's 500 index futures.  This strategy would effectively eliminate both profits and losses due to broad-based stock market fluctuations.  If a portfolio were hedged through the sale of index futures, investment success would thereafter depend on the performance of one's holdings compared with the market as a whole.
• A portfolio of interest-rate-sensitive stocks could be hedged by selling interest rate futures or purchasing or selling appropriate interest rate options.  
• A gold-mining stock portfolio could be hedged against fluctuations in the price of gold by selling gold futures.
• A portfolio of import- or export-sensitive stocks could be partially hedged through appropriate transactions in the foreign exchange markets.  

It is not always smart to hedge.

• When the available return is sufficient, for example, investors should be willing to incur risk and remain unhedged.  
• Hedges can be expensive to buy and time-consuming to maintain, and overpaying for a hedge is as poor an idea as overpaying for an investment.  
• When the cost is reasonable, however, a hedging strategy may allow investors to take advantage of an opportunity that otherwise would be excessively risky.  

In the best of all worlds, an investment that has valuable hedging properties may also be an attractive investment on its own merits.

Ways to Limit Opportunity Cost - Most Important is holding Part of your Portfolio in Cash

The most important determinant of whether investors will incur opportunity cost is whether or not part of their portfolios is held in cash.  

• Maintaining moderate cash balances or owning securities that periodically throw off appreciable cash is likely to reduce the number of foregone opportunities. 

Investors can manage portfolio cash flow (defined as the cash flowing into a portfolio minus outflows) by giving preference to some kinds of investments over others.  Portfolio cash flow is greater for securities of shorter duration (weighted average life) than those of longer duration.  Portfolio cash flow is also enhanced by investments with catalysts for the partial or complete realization of underlying value.

• Equity investments in ongoing businesses typically throw off only minimal cash through payment of dividends.  
• The securities of companies in bankruptcy and liquidation, by contrast, can return considerable liquidity to a portfolio within a few years of purchase.  
• Risk-arbitrage investments typically have very short lives, usually turning back into cash, liquid securities, or both in a matter of weeks or months.

An added attraction of investing in risk-arbitrage situations, bankruptcies, and liquidations is that not only is one's initial investment returned to cash, one's profits are as well.

Another way to limit opportunity cost is through hedging. 

• A hedge is an investment that is expected to move in a direction opposite that of another holding so as to cushion any price decline. 
• If the hedge becomes valuable, it can be sold, providing funds to take advantage of newly created opportunities .

Unlike return, risk is no more quantifiable at the end of an investment than it was at its beginning.

While security analysts attempt to determine with precision the risk and return of investments, events alone accomplish that.

Unlike return, however, risk is no more quantifiable at the end of an investment than it was at its beginning.

Risk simply cannot be described by a single number.  

Intuitively we understand that risk varies from investment to investment:  a government bond is not as risky as the stock of a high-technology company. But investments do not provide information about the risks the way food packages provide nutritional data.

Rather, risk is a perception in each investor's mind that results from analysis of the probability and amount of potential loss from an investment.

• If exploratory oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky.  If a bond defaults or a stock plunges in price, they are called risky.  
• But if the well is a gusher, the bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they weren't risky when the investment was made?  

Not at all.  The point is, in most cases no more is known about the risk of an investment after it is concluded than was known when it was made. 


There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk:

• diversify adequately, 
• hedge when appropriate, and 
• invest with a margin of safety.  

It is precisely because we do not and cannot know all the risks of an investment that we strive to invest at a discount.  The bargain element helps to provide a cushion for when things go wrong.

Limiting portfolio risk to extreme "black swan" events.

I am not looking for a systematic way to call market tops or bubbles, I don’t think they exist.

I am far more interested in finding ways to limit the exposure on the downside of a portfolio due to “black swan” events. The expression made famous by Nicholas Taleeb in his book The Black Swan. Such events would be defined as

• unlikely events with disastrous circumstances,
• bursting of bubbles, or
• other low probability events that could have disastrous consequences on a portfolio.

Also,  such thing as a perfect hedge that protects the downside and retains the potential for upside gains… is either non-existing or very rare.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/185531-in-search-of-the-illusive-black-swan-hedge-one-idea-worth-trying

Responding to risks: Hedging risks

Hedging means taking additional risks that offset other risks, so that if the downside impact of one risk occurs, it is (in theory) balanced by the upside impact of the other risk. 

An example would be betting an equal sum on both sides in a sporting fixture - whatever the outcome, you cannot lose.  In investment or business, a 'perfect' hedge (one where the different outcomes are perfectly balanced) is practically impossible. A contractor can partially hedge his material cost prices of his contract with an advance order with the manufacturer for future delivery.

Hedging isn'tjust an approach to business or investment risk.  We engage in many trivial hedging behaviours all the time in our everyday lives - in any situation where we wish to avoid the risk of commitment.  When we hedge in everyday life, we set up alternatives for ourselves that will minimise the negative impact on us if things don't work out.  Consider the planning of a Friday night out.  We might make tentative plans to go out with one group of friends, but remain open to other offers.  After all, a better offer might come along - with a higher probability of positive impact (more enjoyment).  We are 'hedging our bets'.

***Not making money to maintain his retirement lifestyle.

2008/08/09

YAP MING HUI: Hedging against inflation


IT was an anxious Jimmy that came to see me about a year after he retired. He had sold his factory to a US company.

At our first meeting, I asked him how his retirement life was. He said: "Everything is fantastic. I get to travel a lot and play golf."

However, there was a problem.

"I need to break my fixed deposit every now and then to maintain my lifestyle."

Jimmy has about RM10 million but most of his investments in property, unit trusts and shares were not making money to maintain his retirement lifestyle.

He has about RM4 million in fixed deposit. But the interest income from fixed deposit barely covers the impact of inflation.

If he were to spend the interest income, he will risk having the principal depleted over the years due to inflation.

What is the problem?

Jimmy's problem is a typical case of "asset rich, income poor" -- people who are good at creating wealth from their business or profession but weak at generating income from the created wealth. They are rich in assets which are not generating good investment income.

Jimmy's total wealth is RM10 million. His RM4 million generates four per cent of interest.

However, four per cent of interest is not enough to cover the four per cent of inflation provision. As a result, there is no net income for Jimmy from his fixed deposit asset.

His RM3 million of properties generates a RM50,000 income per annum. This can be considered a net income for him because inflation will be hedged by the capital appreciation of at least four per cent per annum.

His RM1 million of shares give him a total return of nine per cent. After the provision of four per cent inflation, his actual income is RM50,000.

His RM2 million unit trust investment didn't make him any money at all.

Therefore, the total actual income after inflation is RM100,000. Due to the fact that Jimmy needs RM400,000 to maintain his lifestyle, he is short of RM300,000 of annual income.

Solution

- Review the performance of each investment asset classes

Jimmy needs to review the performance of all his investments. He will need to get rid of poorly performing investments. He will need to look at each unit trust fund and property to decide if he should sell or keep them.

- Move fixed deposit into higher return investment

Jimmy's fixed deposit will be eroded by inflation if he continues to leave that much of his wealth under fixed deposit.

After calculating and providing for his short-term cash flow needs, the balance of his fixed deposit should be in other investments that are able to generate higher return to hedge against inflation.

- Diversify retirement income

Just because one investment asset gives you good income and a hedge against inflation, it doesn't mean that you must put all or the majority of your wealth into it.

Some people have been successful in property investing. They managed to generate good capital appreciation and rental income. However, rental income is not necessarily sustainable in the long run and is normally subject to a lot of changes.

Therefore, the best practice is still to diversify your retirement income so that it is not badly affected by any one source.

One should consider also share dividends and capital gains, unit trust gains, bond investment gains and retirement income products.

Yap Ming Hui is the managing director of Whitman Independent Advisors Sdn Bhd, the first multi-client family office in Malaysia

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Sunday/Focus/2315138/Article/index_html

Educational experience with an outcome other than expected

During bull markets owning stocks and calls on underpriced stocks should increase the value of the portfolio.

Bear markets should benefit positions in your portfolio that are either short overpriced companies or own puts on the overpriced stock.

Income may be generated by selling covered calls or credit spreads during a neutral market.

Please note that I have made extensive use of the words "should" and "may". Please do not invest any money that you can not afford to lose. Everyone has a different tolerance for risk. It is important that you do your own homework and take responsibility for any decisions that you make.

When investing, it doesn't take very long to have an educational experience with an outcome other than expected.

http://hyperdiversification.com/default.aspx

In Warren Buffet's 1992 letter to the share holders he discussed the following:

• During 1992, their Book Value had increased by 20.3%
  
• Between 1964 and 1992 book value per share (BVPS) had increased from $19 to $7745 resulting in a CAGR of 23.6%.
  
• Used book value for intrinsic value.
  
• CAGR goal 15%
  
• The number of outstanding shares has changed very little between 1964 and 1992 (1,137,778 vs. 1,152,547 respectively)
  
• Requiring a significant Margin of Safety (MOS) when purchasing stock in another company as a cornerstone of Berkshire Hathaway's success

My mom bought her first new car back in 1965. It was a Ford Falcon. She really liked the car. I wonder how much higher her networth would be if she would have bought a used car and invested the difference in Berkshire Hathaway. ;) Of course BH is the exception and not the norm. :))

http://hyperdiversification.com/cagr_main.aspx

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