The Cash-Flow Forecast

It is extremely important that cash receipts and payments are effectively planned and anticipated.

This has not been done in nearly all businesses that fail.

A good manager will plan that sufficient resources are available but that not too many resources are tied up.

This can be done in isolation but it is better done as part of the overall budgeting process.



Cash-Flow Forecast will yield many benefits

The preparation of a detailed Cash-Flow Forecast will yield many benefits.

Calculating and writing down the figures may suggest ideas as to how they can be improved.

For example,

• the figures for cash payments from trade debtors will be based on the estimate of the average number of days' credit that will be taken.
• This will pose the question of whether or not payments can be sped up.

Are the Cash-Flow Forecast results acceptable?

When the Cash-Flow Forecast is finished it will be necessary to consider if the results are acceptable.

• Even if resources are available the results might not be satisfactory, and improvements will have to be worked out.
• If sufficient resources are not available, either changes must be made or extra resources arranged.  Perhaps, an additional bank overdraft can be negotiated.

Either way, a well-planned document will help managers to take action in good time.


Best illustrated in a table format

The principles of a Cash-Flow Forecast are best illustrated with an example in a table format.

Variations in the layout are possible but a constant feature should be the running cash or overdraft balance.

Do not overlook contingencies and do not overlook the possibility of a peak figure within a period.

WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT PREDICTING FUTURE CASH FLOWS

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF)

This method of valuation is often referred to as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, but, as Buffett has said in relation to shares, it is not easy to predict future cash flows and this is why he sticks to investment in companies that are consistent, well managed, and simple to understand. 

A company that is hard to understand or that changes frequently does not allow for easy prediction of future earnings and outgoings.

WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT PREDICTING FUTURE CASH FLOWS

In 1992, Warren Buffett said that:

‘Leaving question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of capital at very high rates of return. The worst company to own is one that must, or will, do the opposite – that is, consistently employ ever-greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return.’

It is well worth reading Buffet’s analogy relating DCF to a university education in his 1994 Letter to Shareholders.

So, it would seem that the intrinsic value of a share in a company relates to the DCF that can be expected from the investment. 

There are formulas for working out discounted cash flows and they can be complex but they give a result.

EXPLANATIONS OF DCF

The best explanation that we have read of DCF is by Lawrence A Cunningham in his outstanding book How to think like Benjamin Graham and invest like Warren Buffett.

A good online explanation is available here.

http://www.buffettsecrets.com/price-to-pay.htm

Finance for Managers - How to value a company? Summary

This chapter has examined the important but difficult subject of business valuation.  It described three approaches:

1.  Asset based:  The first valuation approach is asset-based:  equity book value, adjusted book value, liquidation value, and replacement value.  In general, these methods are easy to calculate and understand, but have notable weaknesses.  Except for replacement and adjusted book methods, they fail to reflect the actual market values of assets; they also fail to recognize the intangible value of an ongoing enterprise, which derives much of its wealth-generating power form human knowledge, skill, and reputation.

2.  Earnings based.  The second valuation approach described is the earnings-based:  P/E method, the EBIT, and EBITDA methods.  The earnings-based approach is generally superior to asset-based methods, but depends on the availability of comparable businesses whose P/E multiples are known.

3.  Cash-flow based.  Finally, the discounted cash flow method, which is based on the concepts of the time value of money.  The DCF method has many advantages, the most important being its future-looking orientation.  This method estimates future cash flows in terms of what a new owner could achieve.  It also recognizes the buyer's cost of capital.  The major weakness of the method is the difficulty inherent in producing reliable estimates of future cash flows.


In the end, these different approaches to valuation are bound to produce different outcomes.  Even the same method applied by two experienced professionals can produce different results.  For this reason, most appraisers use more than one method in approximating the true value of an asset or a business.

Cash Flow Computation

Cash Flow Computation
The total cash flow for a period can be computed as:


Income from Operations (*see below)
+ Depreciation
- Taxes
- Capital Spending
- Increase in Working Capital
------------------------------
Total (Free) Cash Flow


Explanation:

Income from operations equals revenue minus costs and expenses and is the major source of cash.  

However, two adjustments must be made to get to actual cash inflow:

• Income from operations is before taxes are deducted, so taxes need to be subtracted here to get a corrected cash flow,
• Also, depreciation charges are included in income from operations but do not lower cash in the period, so depreciation is added back to get a corrected cash flow.

Finally, only changes (up or down) to the components of working capital (inventory, receivables, payables, etc.) in the period are part of computing cash flow.  If working capital has increased, cash is required this will need to be subtracted from total cash flow.

(Additional note:  The total cash flows used in an NPV (net present value) analysis should come from well-prepared proforma financial statements developed for the project.  The total project cash flows for a period can be computed as above.)

----

Income Statement

for the period x through y

Net Sales

- Cost of Goods Sold

-------------------------

Gross Profit

Sales & Marketing

Research & Development

General & Administrative

--------------------------

Operating Expenses

Gross Profit

- Operating Expenses

-------------------------

Income from Operations*

+ Net Interest income

- Income taxes

-------------------------

Net Income

Cash Flow Calculations

Net income
+ depreciation
working capital from operations
- net increase in current assets
+ net increase in current liabilities
cash flow from operations
- net increase in gross fixed assets
+ net increase in debt & equity invested
- dividends paid
net cash flow
+ beginning cash balance
- required ending cash balance
net cash surplus or borrowing required




http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/berkley/docs/Glenn_Okun.ppt#19

Business Model Analysis