Understand the business model is important as this will provide insight as to the kind of financial results the company may produce.
Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Showing posts with label business models. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business models. Show all posts
Thursday, 31 December 2015
Friday, 20 July 2012
Saturday, 1 January 2011
Look at the big picture when Investing
How does the company fit into the economy; and is there a need for the company’s products or services.
Look at the company’s business model (found in the company’s SEC form 10k) and determine if it coincides with your thinking, your goals and your investment objectives.
Look at the company’s business model (found in the company’s SEC form 10k) and determine if it coincides with your thinking, your goals and your investment objectives.
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
****Know your company to stay Streets ahead
The management thinking can be best understood by reading the management discussion and analysis mentioned in the annual report. One can start with reading three year’s annual reports. This will allow you to compare the management analysis from past reports with what really transpired in the following year. The next important thing that will help you is the corporate governance details in the annual report.
“Management’s intentions towards the minority shareholders must be carefully understood,” advises Kunj Bansal, chief investment officer of Sanlam SMC India. If the business has just been sold, the promoters collecting a non-compete fee does not bode well for smaller shareholders.
Some investors find buy back programmes done at suppressed stock prices and unrelated diversifications detrimental to the minority shareholders. Management actions in the past while handling surplus cash can be good signalling device. One quantitative element that comes handy is the quantum of management compensation. One can look at payout to the management as a percentage of the net profit and decide if the management is fair.
“Management’s intentions towards the minority shareholders must be carefully understood,” advises Kunj Bansal, chief investment officer of Sanlam SMC India. If the business has just been sold, the promoters collecting a non-compete fee does not bode well for smaller shareholders.
Some investors find buy back programmes done at suppressed stock prices and unrelated diversifications detrimental to the minority shareholders. Management actions in the past while handling surplus cash can be good signalling device. One quantitative element that comes handy is the quantum of management compensation. One can look at payout to the management as a percentage of the net profit and decide if the management is fair.
Related Party Transactions
Good companies do business with related parties at fair market prices. The same is disclosed in the annual report for the benefit of the shareholders. Few related party transactions, along with high transparency, is an indicator of a good business. Promoters’ presence in the same business through a privately-held entity is a clear dampener as the investor in the publicly-listed entity runs the risk of promoter placing the ‘cream business’ in the privately-held entity.
Business model
Simply put, it means where and how the company earns its bread and butter. You have to figure out what products the company produces or markets. Five Ws — who, when, where, what, why, will help you understand the raw materials that go in, the time and skill set required, the risks faced by the company and probably all those variables that can influence your returns as a shareholder.
During tech boom of 2000, investors poured in their hard earned money into hundreds of dotcom companies. A few avoided these companies as they found that there were no meaningful revenues or they were bleeding at operational level. Undoubtedly those who stayed clear of that boom were the eventual winners. A thorough understanding of the business can help determine the potential of business and the risks the business is subject to.
Business model
Simply put, it means where and how the company earns its bread and butter. You have to figure out what products the company produces or markets. Five Ws — who, when, where, what, why, will help you understand the raw materials that go in, the time and skill set required, the risks faced by the company and probably all those variables that can influence your returns as a shareholder.
During tech boom of 2000, investors poured in their hard earned money into hundreds of dotcom companies. A few avoided these companies as they found that there were no meaningful revenues or they were bleeding at operational level. Undoubtedly those who stayed clear of that boom were the eventual winners. A thorough understanding of the business can help determine the potential of business and the risks the business is subject to.
Pricing Power
If you grasp the business model well, you stand to understand the pricing power. Customers and suppliers can influence the profit if they possess the pricing power. Generally, businesses with a few customers or sole suppliers typically do not have pricing power. Hence it makes sense to stay with companies that have a large customer base and have many suppliers and still a monopoly player in the business.
Power of intangibles
Intangibles such as brands play a significant role in the performance of a company. In the long-run, consumer preferences tilted in favour of a brand can bring in high visibility of income for a business. Intellectual property rights are also important as they offer an edge over others. They become the deciding factors in the knowledge-driven businesses.
“Investors must check the ownership of such intangibles. If the promoters own the brands in the personal capacity, then it is a case of promoters making money at the expense of the shareholders,” says Avinash Gorakshkar. This is especially true if the business is doing well, as the promoter can take home a sizeable amount of profits by way of higher fees.
Power of intangibles
Intangibles such as brands play a significant role in the performance of a company. In the long-run, consumer preferences tilted in favour of a brand can bring in high visibility of income for a business. Intellectual property rights are also important as they offer an edge over others. They become the deciding factors in the knowledge-driven businesses.
“Investors must check the ownership of such intangibles. If the promoters own the brands in the personal capacity, then it is a case of promoters making money at the expense of the shareholders,” says Avinash Gorakshkar. This is especially true if the business is doing well, as the promoter can take home a sizeable amount of profits by way of higher fees.
Point of Reference: Information Sources
Company annual reports:
--> An annual communication to shareholders
--> Available to all shareholders
--> High authenticity
--> Good companies also keep them on their websites
--> An annual communication to shareholders
--> Available to all shareholders
--> High authenticity
--> Good companies also keep them on their websites
Broker reports:
--> Prepared by brokers to solicit business and advise clients
--> Can be helpful in understanding micro or company-specific issues
--> May contain scenario analysis that exhibits impacts of changes in fundamentals
Company presentations:
--> These are prepared by companies from time to time
--> Meant for analysts and give update on business
--> You have to discount the contents as company may paint an overoptimistic picture
--> Available on company websites
--> Prepared by brokers to solicit business and advise clients
--> Can be helpful in understanding micro or company-specific issues
--> May contain scenario analysis that exhibits impacts of changes in fundamentals
Company presentations:
--> These are prepared by companies from time to time
--> Meant for analysts and give update on business
--> You have to discount the contents as company may paint an overoptimistic picture
--> Available on company websites
Industry reports:
--> Prepared by consulting firms and industry bodies such as FICCI
--> Offers good business insights
--> Useful in tracking changes in regulatory, technological changes
--> Available on websites of industry bodies or websites of manufacturers
--> You have to discount the interested parties' views
Stock exchange filings:
--> Periodic communications by the company
--> High authenticity
--> Prepared by consulting firms and industry bodies such as FICCI
--> Offers good business insights
--> Useful in tracking changes in regulatory, technological changes
--> Available on websites of industry bodies or websites of manufacturers
--> You have to discount the interested parties' views
Stock exchange filings:
--> Periodic communications by the company
--> High authenticity
****What differentiates winners from losers in a stock market: Qualitative Variables
What differentiates winners from losers in a stock market? Some may religiously follow the recommendations of a ‘hit’ stock broker. And some may even dig a bit deeper to know about the stock and the company they plan to invest in by going through the earnings and valuations multiples. But the real winners could still be a league ahead of such investors. That’s because they keep an eye on the qualitative variables. Let’s look at them:
People
This is the most important variable. You should know both the promoters and the professional managers who run the company. If the business is managed by a first-generation entrepreneur, check if the promoter is professionally and technically qualified to run the business. Of course, this is not a necessary condition and one has to exercise judgment. If the management consists of professionals, look at their employment history to understand their track record. For instance, before setting up HDFC Bank’s operations in 1994, Aditya Puri was a successful country head of Citibank in Malaysia.
The management thinking can be best understood by reading the management discussion and analysis mentioned in the annual report. One can start with reading three year’s annual reports. This will allow you to compare the management analysis from past reports with what really transpired in the following year. The next important thing that will help you is the corporate governance details in the annual report.
“Management’s intentions towards the minority shareholders must be carefully understood,” advises Kunj Bansal, chief investment officer of Sanlam SMC India. If the business has just been sold, the promoters collecting a non-compete fee does not bode well for smaller shareholders. Some investors find buy back programmes done at suppressed stock prices and unrelated diversifications detrimental to the minority shareholders.
Management actions in the past while handling surplus cash can be good signalling device. One quantitative element that comes handy is the quantum of management compensation. One can look at payout to the management as a percentage of the net profit and decide if the management is fair.
Related party transactions
Good companies do business with related parties at fair market prices. The same is disclosed in the annual report for the benefit of the shareholders. Few related party transactions, along with high transparency, is an indicator of a good business. Promoters’ presence in the same business through a privately-held entity is a clear dampener as the investor in the publicly-listed entity runs the risk of promoter placing the ‘cream business’ in the privately-held entity.
Business model
Simply put, it means where and how the company earns its bread and butter. You have to figure out what products the company produces or markets. Five Ws — who, when, where, what, why — will help you understand the raw materials that go in, the time and skill set required, the risks faced by the company and probably all those variables that can influence your returns as a shareholder. During tech boom of 2000, investors poured in their hard earned money into hundreds of dotcom companies.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/savings-centre/analysis/What-differentiates-winners-from-losers-in-a-stock-market/articleshow/6404286.cms
Related:
Read how a company used its large cash reserve:
Review of Fima Corp's Earnings
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2010/08/review-of-fima-corps-earnings.html
People
This is the most important variable. You should know both the promoters and the professional managers who run the company. If the business is managed by a first-generation entrepreneur, check if the promoter is professionally and technically qualified to run the business. Of course, this is not a necessary condition and one has to exercise judgment. If the management consists of professionals, look at their employment history to understand their track record. For instance, before setting up HDFC Bank’s operations in 1994, Aditya Puri was a successful country head of Citibank in Malaysia.
The management thinking can be best understood by reading the management discussion and analysis mentioned in the annual report. One can start with reading three year’s annual reports. This will allow you to compare the management analysis from past reports with what really transpired in the following year. The next important thing that will help you is the corporate governance details in the annual report.
“Management’s intentions towards the minority shareholders must be carefully understood,” advises Kunj Bansal, chief investment officer of Sanlam SMC India. If the business has just been sold, the promoters collecting a non-compete fee does not bode well for smaller shareholders. Some investors find buy back programmes done at suppressed stock prices and unrelated diversifications detrimental to the minority shareholders.
Management actions in the past while handling surplus cash can be good signalling device. One quantitative element that comes handy is the quantum of management compensation. One can look at payout to the management as a percentage of the net profit and decide if the management is fair.
Related party transactions
Good companies do business with related parties at fair market prices. The same is disclosed in the annual report for the benefit of the shareholders. Few related party transactions, along with high transparency, is an indicator of a good business. Promoters’ presence in the same business through a privately-held entity is a clear dampener as the investor in the publicly-listed entity runs the risk of promoter placing the ‘cream business’ in the privately-held entity.
Business model
Simply put, it means where and how the company earns its bread and butter. You have to figure out what products the company produces or markets. Five Ws — who, when, where, what, why — will help you understand the raw materials that go in, the time and skill set required, the risks faced by the company and probably all those variables that can influence your returns as a shareholder. During tech boom of 2000, investors poured in their hard earned money into hundreds of dotcom companies.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/savings-centre/analysis/What-differentiates-winners-from-losers-in-a-stock-market/articleshow/6404286.cms
Related:
Read how a company used its large cash reserve:
Review of Fima Corp's Earnings
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2010/08/review-of-fima-corps-earnings.html
Sunday, 1 August 2010
Monday, 12 July 2010
Breaking down your business plan
MAX NEWNHAM
July 12, 2010 - 12:49PMLast week I answered a question from a reader who had set up an online business and wanted help in preparing a business plan.
In my opinion there are two types of business plans for small businesses.
The first step in this planning process is to reduce the business to its smallest component parts. That does not mean taking last year’s results and increasing all of the income and expenses by a fixed percentage to reflect the effect of inflation. It does mean breaking down revenue into the different major income sources then breaking these down further to each product or service.
For example it does not make sense for a service station owner to increase his or her annual sales by 3 per cent a year. It makes a lot more sense to break the sales down into fuel, groceries, snacks and take away. Then break each of those lines down into each major product such as unleaded, premium and diesel.
The same goes for expenses. The first step in this process is to identify costs that have a direct relationship with income. These include costs of goods sold in retail or hours worked by a trade or service provider. Each of these expenses needs to be analysed to work out how much these costs increase if income increases.
Next, identify those costs that a business pays no matter how much income is earned. These are the overheads of the business and include rent, loan repayments, insurance and administration costs such as bookkeeping and accounting fees.
Each overhead expense needs to be broken down as much is practically possible. At the end of this process the business owner should have a statement that details all of the historical income and expenses and which components of the business are the most profitable. One of the most important results of this process will be the amount of income that must be produced for the business to break even.
Items of expenditure that have blown out or are not strictly necessary, such as a luxury car lease or excessive entertaining, and business lines that are not covering costs will become apparent. It is from this point that the business planning process can start.
At the heart of every good business plan is an analytical process where the business is assessed and ways found of improving it. A tried and tested way of analysing a business is to prepare a SWOT analysis of the business. This involves looking at what the Strengths and Weaknesses of the business are, the Opportunities it has to grow and what Threats it faces.
Business planning action are formulated to maximise the strengths of the business and ways found to reduce the cost and business impact of weaknesses. This could mean increasing the price of a good or service that is not profitable or dropping it altogether. It could also mean a loss leader of the business is identified that results in more profitable items being sold.
The big advantage of using the cash flow budget as the centre piece for this planning process is that the financial impact of each planning action can be modelled. This means the business owner can establish which planning options have the greatest impact and have a basis for benchmarking whether the actions taken are working.
Questions on small business issues can be emailed to max@taxbiz.com.au
Tax for small business, a survival guide, by Max Newnham is available in bookstores.
- The first can cost a lot of money and in the end produces very little in the way of results.
- The second is a lot simpler and is based around the cash flow of the business.
The first step in this planning process is to reduce the business to its smallest component parts. That does not mean taking last year’s results and increasing all of the income and expenses by a fixed percentage to reflect the effect of inflation. It does mean breaking down revenue into the different major income sources then breaking these down further to each product or service.
For example it does not make sense for a service station owner to increase his or her annual sales by 3 per cent a year. It makes a lot more sense to break the sales down into fuel, groceries, snacks and take away. Then break each of those lines down into each major product such as unleaded, premium and diesel.
The same goes for expenses. The first step in this process is to identify costs that have a direct relationship with income. These include costs of goods sold in retail or hours worked by a trade or service provider. Each of these expenses needs to be analysed to work out how much these costs increase if income increases.
Next, identify those costs that a business pays no matter how much income is earned. These are the overheads of the business and include rent, loan repayments, insurance and administration costs such as bookkeeping and accounting fees.
Each overhead expense needs to be broken down as much is practically possible. At the end of this process the business owner should have a statement that details all of the historical income and expenses and which components of the business are the most profitable. One of the most important results of this process will be the amount of income that must be produced for the business to break even.
Items of expenditure that have blown out or are not strictly necessary, such as a luxury car lease or excessive entertaining, and business lines that are not covering costs will become apparent. It is from this point that the business planning process can start.
At the heart of every good business plan is an analytical process where the business is assessed and ways found of improving it. A tried and tested way of analysing a business is to prepare a SWOT analysis of the business. This involves looking at what the Strengths and Weaknesses of the business are, the Opportunities it has to grow and what Threats it faces.
Business planning action are formulated to maximise the strengths of the business and ways found to reduce the cost and business impact of weaknesses. This could mean increasing the price of a good or service that is not profitable or dropping it altogether. It could also mean a loss leader of the business is identified that results in more profitable items being sold.
The big advantage of using the cash flow budget as the centre piece for this planning process is that the financial impact of each planning action can be modelled. This means the business owner can establish which planning options have the greatest impact and have a basis for benchmarking whether the actions taken are working.
Questions on small business issues can be emailed to max@taxbiz.com.au
Tax for small business, a survival guide, by Max Newnham is available in bookstores.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/small-business/managing/breaking-down-your--business-plan-20100712-1071x.html
Thursday, 27 May 2010
How to Succeed at M&A
STRATEGY & INNOVATION May 26, 2010, 4:40PM EST
How to Succeed at M&A
All too often, mergers and acquisitions fail dismally. That, says Innosight's Mark Johnson, is because executives don't understand what they're really buying
Companies constantly seek new growth opportunities, but organic new growth is far from a sure bet. While business model innovation is a powerful path to sustained, robust growth, new businesses can take years to mature. The skills needed to conceive and incubate them present a unique set of challenges that many companies find difficult to overcome. "A large enterprise has trouble making an investment in innovation," says Brad Anderson, the recently retired CEO of electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY). "It's in part because Wall Street has trouble imagining a new way to operate but, more important, because people inside the company can't see the value of a new idea and so won't allocate the resources and support the new initiative needs to succeed."
But organic growth is not the only option available to companies seeking transformational growth. Though most of my book Seizing the White Space: Business Model Innovation for Growth and Renewal is dedicated to developing new business models within incumbent organizations, I don't mean to imply that incumbent companies shouldn't seek to achieve transformative growth and exploit opportunities in their white space through mergers and acquisitions—they should. Building models in-house is not the only option for companies seeking transformational growth. Corporations can transform their business models through acquisitions as well. When Anderson took over Best Buy, in fact, he led the company through a series of strategic acquisitions that helped it grow beyond a pure retail sales model.
But it's no news to point out that acquisitions, at the best of times, are tricky. Study after study finds that acquisitions tend to disappoint, variously estimating that half to as many as 80 percent fail to create value. The high-profile struggle of AOL (AOL) after its $180 billion acquisition of Time Warner (TWC) is one obvious example of an acquisition gone bad. But there are others: Daimler/Chrysler, Sprint/Nextel, and Quaker Oats/Snapple, to name only a few. Quaker Oats paid $1.7 billion for the Snapple brand in 1994 but sold it to Triarc three years later for a mere $300 million.
BUSINESS MODEL DEVELOPMENT
I believe many M&A disappointments stem from a failure to understand the fundamentals of business model development. When one company buys another, what it's really purchasing is the target company's business model—its customer value proposition, its profit formula, its resources, and its processes. The new company's resources can be folded into the core of the acquiring company, but new business models resist such integration. Consequently, successful acquisitions tend to fall into one of two camps.
- An acquirer can buy a company solely for its resources, which it would then fold into its own business model, while jettisoning the rest. The bulk of Cisco's (CSCO) acquisitions follow that pattern.
- Alternatively, a company can seek to acquire another company's business model, which it then needs to keep separate, but can strengthen by injecting into it its own resources. That's what Best Buy did with Geek Squad.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has understood this, buying business models at an early stage and then keeping them separate. For example, its Medical Devices & Diagnostics (MD&D) division bought three business models that were fundamentally new to its respective markets: Vistakon (disposable contact lenses), LifeScan (at-home diabetes monitoring), and Cordis (artery stents used in angioplasty procedures). J&J bought these companies young and incubated them into the larger enterprise, where they became the growth engine of the MD&D division for many years.
All too often, attempts to fold an acquired business into the core can kill what made it unique in the first place. Video game maker Electronic Arts (ERTS) learned this the hard way. Propelled by investor expectations, rising development costs, and an industry consolidation trend, EA aggressively bought up small companies led by creative teams that had found success in the market. To profit from anticipated economies of scale, it built up a standardized technical infrastructure and imposed streamlined production processes on its new acquisitions.
The results were abysmal. EA fell into a pattern of producing mediocre products based on movie licenses and sports franchises, which were updated each year. Forcing creative teams to follow core processes was killing their innovative spirit. Luckily, CEO John Riccitiello saw the writing on the wall and announced a sea change in EA's operations: Independent creative studios would operate as "city-states" within the EA corporate structure.
ACQUIRED MODEL TAKES WHAT IT NEEDS
Most of the principles that govern the incubation, acceleration, and transition of homegrown new business models apply to acquired ones as well. Equally important is leadership's ability to allow a newly acquired business model to pull what it needs from the core, rather than having elements of the core model pushed onto it. Best Buy's Brad Anderson expressed this idea succinctly when, referring to the Geek Squad deal, he said, "Geek Squad bought Best Buy, not the other way around."
Anderson knew that the new model would produce growth and transformation for the company, but he also knew that the low-margin, high-volume, retail mentality of Best Buy could easily suffocate the high-touch, high-margin service orientation of Geek Squad. He let Geek Squad pull from Best Buy what it needed to thrive. At the time of acquisition, Geek Squad had 60 employees and was booking $3 million in annual revenue. Today, working out of 700 Best Buy locations across North America, Geek Squad's 12,000 service agents clock nearly $1 billion in services and return some $280 million to the retailer's bottom line.
As Vijay Govindarajan and Chris Trimble noted in Ten Rules for Strategic Innovators, a newly acquired business based on a model distinct from the core should decide what it can borrow from the parent, what it should forget (or forget about), and what it will do or learn that is completely new. The key to understanding what to forget and what to learn lies in the business model. You must understand both your own business model and the new company's model completely, so you won't throw away the most valuable thing you bought—the very thing that will help your company grow.
Mark W. Johnson is Chairman and Co-Founder of innovation consulting and research firm, Innosight. He is the author ofSeizing the White Space: Business Model Innovation for Transformative Growth and Renewal, (Harvard Business Press, February 2010) and a co-author of The Innovator's Guide to Growth (Harvard Business Press, July 2008).
Friday, 16 April 2010
Buffett (1993): Staying within one's circle of competence and investing in simple businesses
A key mistake of investors was they never tried to fathom the relationship between the stock and the underlying business.
One should stick with the ones that can be easily understood and not subject to frequent changes.
"Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight?"
One should stick with the ones that can be easily understood and not subject to frequent changes.
"Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight?"
---
In the darkest days in the stock market history, there is no better time than this to imbibe the lessons being imparted by the master in value investing, a discipline or a form of investing that we think is one of the safest around.
One of the key mistakes the investors who suffered the most in the recent decline made was they never tried to fathom the relationship between the stock and the underlying business. Instead, they bought what was popular and hoping that there will still be a greater fool out there who would in turn buy from them. We believe that no matter how good the underlying business is, there is always an intrinsic value attached to it and one should not pay even a dime more for the same. Alas, this was not to be the case in the stock markets in recent times for many 'investors', where no effort was being made to evaluate the business model and the sustainability or longevity of the business.
In his 1993 letter to shareholders, the master has a very important point to say on why it is important to know the company or the industry that one invests in. This is what he has to offer on the topic.
"In many industries, of course, Charlie and I can't determine whether we are dealing with a "pet rock" or a "Barbie." We couldn't solve this problem, moreover, even if we were to spend years intensely studying those industries. Sometimes our own intellectual shortcomings would stand in the way of understanding, and in other cases the nature of the industry would be the roadblock. For example, a business that must deal with fast-moving technology is not going to lend itself to reliable evaluations of its long-term economics. Did we foresee thirty years ago what would transpire in the television-manufacturing or computer industries? Of course not. (Nor did most of the investors and corporate managers who enthusiastically entered those industries.) Why, then, should Charlie and I now think we can predict the future of other rapidly evolving businesses? We'll stick instead with the easy cases. Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight?"
As is evident from the above paragraph, an investor does himself no good in the long-run if he keeps on investing without understanding the economics of the underlying business. Infact, even when one is close to cracking the industry economics, some industries are best left alone because they are so dynamic that rapid technological changes might put their very existence at risk. Instead, one should stick with the ones that can be easily understood and not subject to frequent changes.
Thursday, 4 March 2010
Learn to be long-term greedy when others are short-term fearful.
The bullish lesson?
Learn to be long-term greedy when others are short-term fearful. Going against the herd is never easy, but if you truly believe in a company's long-run demand story, major downturns can offer the very best buying opportunities.
Learn to be long-term greedy when others are short-term fearful. Going against the herd is never easy, but if you truly believe in a company's long-run demand story, major downturns can offer the very best buying opportunities.
As Warren Buffett reminds us, "Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."
The bearish takeaway?
There's just no substitute for knowing a business model cold. The only way to reasonably predict a company's fortunes is to know exactly what sort of strategies management is pursuing, and questioning if they can actually create value by doing so.
The final Foolish move
Investors often focus strictly on stock price movements, without realizing that developing a proper stock-picking process counts most.
Investors often focus strictly on stock price movements, without realizing that developing a proper stock-picking process counts most.
Sunday, 10 January 2010
3 Signs of a Terrible Investment
3 Signs of a Terrible Investment
By Matt Koppenheffer
January 4, 2010 |
There's nothing wrong with fixing your focus on trying to find the next Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). After all, isn't that what we're here for in the first place?
But before you go diving in after that hot new small cap you found, let's take a moment to remember some of Warren Buffett's priceless investment advice: "Rule number one: Never lose money. Rule number two: Never forget rule number one."
Maybe we should rename Warren "Captain Obvious."
But as obvious as Buffett's advice may seem, it's an important and often overlooked aspect of investing. So how do we avoid losing money? I've found a few great lessons from some of the past decade's worst investments.
1. Poor business model
In Buffett's 2007 letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) shareholders, he described three types of businesses: the great, the good, and the gruesome. He described the "gruesome" type as a business that "grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money."
Buffett's prime example of a gruesome business? Airlines. And he's not alone in thinking this. Robert Crandall, the former chairman of American Airlines, once said:
I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
So then it shouldn't be much of a surprise that AMR (NYSE: AMR), American Airlines' parent, would come up as a stock that has massively underperformed the market. Though American is the only legacy airline not to have declared bankruptcy, the business has performed only marginally over the years, and its voracious appetite for capital has gobbled up all of the company's cash and then some.
Investing large amounts of capital into a business isn't a bad thing in itself. However, investors need to be sure that there's a good chance that capital investments will actually translate into healthy shareholder returns.
2. Sky-high valuation
We can take our pick of overvalued stocks when looking back 10 years, but Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) seems to stick out as a prime example.
Yahoo! had a lot going for it back in 1999 -- it was a pioneer and leader in the Internet search arena, it was growing like a weed, and by the end of 1999 was actually profitable. And, in fact, Yahoo! continued to get even more profitable and managed to expand its revenue 12-fold by the end of 2008.
However, the 259 price-to-revenue multiple that investors awarded the stock at the end of 1999 was absolutely ludicrous. Even if Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) had never come along and pushed Yahoo! aside as the industry leader, it would have been nearly impossible for the company to live up to the expectations that Yahoo!'s 1999 valuation implied.
As Buffett has said, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." And it's never a good idea to own even a great company at an absurd price.
3. Loss of focus
What exactly was it that made E*TRADE (Nasdaq: ETFC) so successful for so many years? That's simple: It was a leader in the online brokerage market, making it easier for Fools like us to buy and sell stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and options.
However, the need for speed on the growth front, along with the pre-crash excitement in the housing and credit markets, led E*TRADE to rapidly bulk up its lending activities and investment portfolio, including feasting on food-poisoning-inducing asset-backed securities. As it turns out, E*TRADE wasn't especially good at managing these areas, and when all hell broke loose in 2008, the company found itself on the brink of extinction.
E*TRADE competitors like optionsXpress and Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW) have either stuck to their knitting or never let their noncore operations get out of control. As a result, their stocks have held up much better through the market turmoil.
Successful companies tend to be successful because they're good at their core business -- online brokerage services in E*TRADE's case. Is it possible for a company to branch out in a related area and be successful? Absolutely, but investors should always be on high alert when a company charges full throttle into uncharted waters.
The best of both worlds
Keeping these lessons in mind when evaluating an investment will help you avoid some of the next decade's worst investments, but they may also help you achieve the goal that we started with -- finding the next Wal-Mart. After all, Wal-Mart is a company with a great business model and a laser-like focus on its core low-priced-retail strategy, and it's been a fantastic investment for those who bought at a fair price.
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2010/01/04/3-signs-of-a-terrible-investment.aspx
By Matt Koppenheffer
January 4, 2010 |
There's nothing wrong with fixing your focus on trying to find the next Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). After all, isn't that what we're here for in the first place?
But before you go diving in after that hot new small cap you found, let's take a moment to remember some of Warren Buffett's priceless investment advice: "Rule number one: Never lose money. Rule number two: Never forget rule number one."
Maybe we should rename Warren "Captain Obvious."
But as obvious as Buffett's advice may seem, it's an important and often overlooked aspect of investing. So how do we avoid losing money? I've found a few great lessons from some of the past decade's worst investments.
1. Poor business model
In Buffett's 2007 letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) shareholders, he described three types of businesses: the great, the good, and the gruesome. He described the "gruesome" type as a business that "grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money."
Buffett's prime example of a gruesome business? Airlines. And he's not alone in thinking this. Robert Crandall, the former chairman of American Airlines, once said:
I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
So then it shouldn't be much of a surprise that AMR (NYSE: AMR), American Airlines' parent, would come up as a stock that has massively underperformed the market. Though American is the only legacy airline not to have declared bankruptcy, the business has performed only marginally over the years, and its voracious appetite for capital has gobbled up all of the company's cash and then some.
Investing large amounts of capital into a business isn't a bad thing in itself. However, investors need to be sure that there's a good chance that capital investments will actually translate into healthy shareholder returns.
2. Sky-high valuation
We can take our pick of overvalued stocks when looking back 10 years, but Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) seems to stick out as a prime example.
Yahoo! had a lot going for it back in 1999 -- it was a pioneer and leader in the Internet search arena, it was growing like a weed, and by the end of 1999 was actually profitable. And, in fact, Yahoo! continued to get even more profitable and managed to expand its revenue 12-fold by the end of 2008.
However, the 259 price-to-revenue multiple that investors awarded the stock at the end of 1999 was absolutely ludicrous. Even if Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) had never come along and pushed Yahoo! aside as the industry leader, it would have been nearly impossible for the company to live up to the expectations that Yahoo!'s 1999 valuation implied.
As Buffett has said, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." And it's never a good idea to own even a great company at an absurd price.
3. Loss of focus
What exactly was it that made E*TRADE (Nasdaq: ETFC) so successful for so many years? That's simple: It was a leader in the online brokerage market, making it easier for Fools like us to buy and sell stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and options.
However, the need for speed on the growth front, along with the pre-crash excitement in the housing and credit markets, led E*TRADE to rapidly bulk up its lending activities and investment portfolio, including feasting on food-poisoning-inducing asset-backed securities. As it turns out, E*TRADE wasn't especially good at managing these areas, and when all hell broke loose in 2008, the company found itself on the brink of extinction.
E*TRADE competitors like optionsXpress and Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW) have either stuck to their knitting or never let their noncore operations get out of control. As a result, their stocks have held up much better through the market turmoil.
Successful companies tend to be successful because they're good at their core business -- online brokerage services in E*TRADE's case. Is it possible for a company to branch out in a related area and be successful? Absolutely, but investors should always be on high alert when a company charges full throttle into uncharted waters.
The best of both worlds
Keeping these lessons in mind when evaluating an investment will help you avoid some of the next decade's worst investments, but they may also help you achieve the goal that we started with -- finding the next Wal-Mart. After all, Wal-Mart is a company with a great business model and a laser-like focus on its core low-priced-retail strategy, and it's been a fantastic investment for those who bought at a fair price.
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2010/01/04/3-signs-of-a-terrible-investment.aspx
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
****Best Businesses to Start or Buy: Recurring Revenue Business Models
Best Businesses to Start or Buy
Recurring Revenue Business Models
Starting a business? Buying a business? If so, there's one question that you absolutely must ask. Does your new venture have a recurring revenue business model? If not, you might want to go back to the drawing board and look at other options.
The best businesses to own are recurring revenue businesses.
(article continues below)
If you are a new entrepreneur or are searching for a business to start or buy, you might overlook this simple fact. If so, you are making a huge mistake.
To make the most money as a business owner, you want a business model that has built-in recurring revenues.
Examples of Recurring Revenue Business Models
Here are a couple of examples of recurring revenue businesses.
One friend of mine sells telecommunications services. In short, his company sells bandwidth to companies. The offerings include T1 lines, T3 lines, OC3 lines, OC12 lines and other internet access and point to point telecom offerings.
His business is a reseller of telecom services from big companies like AT&T and MCI. He doesn't have the massive overhead that those companies have. He just sells their services and offers a small amount of first-call support services.
The business has recurring revenues because whenever he sells, say, a T1 line, my friend gets a commission on every single payment the buyer makes. In other words, it's not a one-time fee. Rather, it's an annuity. As long as the customer keeps that T1, even if it's for 10 years, my friend is making money. He only had to sell the deal once, the customer typically renews every year, and he just watches as MCI and AT&T transfer money into his bank account.
That's the beauty of a recurring revenue business. In essence, you earn money now for work you did in the past.
Here's another one. Another business acquaintance of mine sells health insurance to companies. At any given time, he has maybe 50 companies with an average of 40 employees each. I'm not sure exactly what an average health premium is for his clients but let's guess that it's $500 per month. For having sold the health insurance plan, he gets 4% of every premium payment made to the health insurance company.
So, do the math. He's making 50 X 40 X $500 x 12 X .04 per year. That works out to top line revenues of $480,000. Not bad.
He has one employee on staff…a troubleshooter who handles those situations when an employee of one his clients runs into an issue with a health insurance claim. He also has rent expenses on a small office. All in, I'm guessing he's pulling in $300,000 net before taxes worst case.
If he left the country for a year to take a long vacation, he might lose a few clients. But his able assistant could handle most of the service issues. He'd still be receiving revenues in the form of commission payments. In other words, he'd be benefiting from the recurring revenues related to work he did years ago.
Alternatives to Recurring Revenue Business Models
The mistake that many new entrepreneurs make is that they don't figure out how to build a recurring revenue business.
Instead, they earn only as much money as they deserve based on very recent efforts.
This is the taxi company business model. You get a fare, drive them, and get paid. Now, to make more money, you need to find a new fare.
There are no rewards for what you do long ago. There's no cumulative building up of revenues. It is always "What have you done for me lately?" from customers. No new sale, no new revenues.
Entrepreneurs on this track are on a treadmill. If they get off the treadmill, they stop making money.
Always Look for Recurring Revenues
The key takeaway from this article is that owning a business is not a generic concept. Every business out there has different dynamics to it, which in aggregate amount to a business model.
Some business models are better than others. As an entrepreneur, you need to evaluate the business models that are available to you and choose the most profitable…offering the maximum reward for the minimum effort and risk.
Take our word for it. The best business to buy or start will be one that has recurring revenues built into the business model. Without that, you can do OK but you will always be on the treadmill. In that case, the business owns you instead of visa versa.
Related Articles
Want to learn more about this topic? If so, you will enjoy these articles:
Evaluting Business Models When Buying a Business
http://www.gaebler.com/Recurring-Revenue-Business-Models.htm
Recurring Revenue Business Models
Starting a business? Buying a business? If so, there's one question that you absolutely must ask. Does your new venture have a recurring revenue business model? If not, you might want to go back to the drawing board and look at other options.
The best businesses to own are recurring revenue businesses.
(article continues below)
If you are a new entrepreneur or are searching for a business to start or buy, you might overlook this simple fact. If so, you are making a huge mistake.
To make the most money as a business owner, you want a business model that has built-in recurring revenues.
Examples of Recurring Revenue Business Models
Here are a couple of examples of recurring revenue businesses.
One friend of mine sells telecommunications services. In short, his company sells bandwidth to companies. The offerings include T1 lines, T3 lines, OC3 lines, OC12 lines and other internet access and point to point telecom offerings.
His business is a reseller of telecom services from big companies like AT&T and MCI. He doesn't have the massive overhead that those companies have. He just sells their services and offers a small amount of first-call support services.
The business has recurring revenues because whenever he sells, say, a T1 line, my friend gets a commission on every single payment the buyer makes. In other words, it's not a one-time fee. Rather, it's an annuity. As long as the customer keeps that T1, even if it's for 10 years, my friend is making money. He only had to sell the deal once, the customer typically renews every year, and he just watches as MCI and AT&T transfer money into his bank account.
That's the beauty of a recurring revenue business. In essence, you earn money now for work you did in the past.
Here's another one. Another business acquaintance of mine sells health insurance to companies. At any given time, he has maybe 50 companies with an average of 40 employees each. I'm not sure exactly what an average health premium is for his clients but let's guess that it's $500 per month. For having sold the health insurance plan, he gets 4% of every premium payment made to the health insurance company.
So, do the math. He's making 50 X 40 X $500 x 12 X .04 per year. That works out to top line revenues of $480,000. Not bad.
He has one employee on staff…a troubleshooter who handles those situations when an employee of one his clients runs into an issue with a health insurance claim. He also has rent expenses on a small office. All in, I'm guessing he's pulling in $300,000 net before taxes worst case.
If he left the country for a year to take a long vacation, he might lose a few clients. But his able assistant could handle most of the service issues. He'd still be receiving revenues in the form of commission payments. In other words, he'd be benefiting from the recurring revenues related to work he did years ago.
Alternatives to Recurring Revenue Business Models
The mistake that many new entrepreneurs make is that they don't figure out how to build a recurring revenue business.
Instead, they earn only as much money as they deserve based on very recent efforts.
This is the taxi company business model. You get a fare, drive them, and get paid. Now, to make more money, you need to find a new fare.
There are no rewards for what you do long ago. There's no cumulative building up of revenues. It is always "What have you done for me lately?" from customers. No new sale, no new revenues.
Entrepreneurs on this track are on a treadmill. If they get off the treadmill, they stop making money.
Always Look for Recurring Revenues
The key takeaway from this article is that owning a business is not a generic concept. Every business out there has different dynamics to it, which in aggregate amount to a business model.
Some business models are better than others. As an entrepreneur, you need to evaluate the business models that are available to you and choose the most profitable…offering the maximum reward for the minimum effort and risk.
Take our word for it. The best business to buy or start will be one that has recurring revenues built into the business model. Without that, you can do OK but you will always be on the treadmill. In that case, the business owns you instead of visa versa.
Related Articles
Want to learn more about this topic? If so, you will enjoy these articles:
Evaluting Business Models When Buying a Business
http://www.gaebler.com/Recurring-Revenue-Business-Models.htm
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