Growth Stocks

How to select growth stocks?

Selecting growth stocks can be a challenging task, but there are a few key factors to consider when evaluating potential investments. Here are a few strategies that may help you identify growth stocks:

Look for companies with strong revenue and earnings growth: Companies that have consistently grown their revenues and earnings over time are more likely to continue growing in the future. Look for companies with strong revenue and earnings growth rates, and compare them to industry averages.

Look for companies with a competitive advantage: Companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage, such as a strong brand, proprietary technology, or a large market share, are more likely to continue growing in the future.

Look for companies with a solid management team: A strong management team is essential for a company's long-term growth. Look for companies with a track record of success and a clear vision for the future.

Look for companies in growing industries: Companies that operate in growing industries, such as technology, healthcare, or renewable energy, are more likely to benefit from long-term growth trends in those industries.

Look at valuation metrics: Growth stocks tend to trade at higher valuations than value stocks, so it's important to consider a company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and other valuation metrics to ensure that you are getting a good deal.

Do your own research: It's important to conduct thorough research on the companies you are considering investing in. Look at their financial statements, management team, and industry trends to identify companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.

It's worth noting that past performance is not a guarantee of future results and that investing in the stock market carries risk. It's always good to do your own research, invest in a diverse set of assets, and have a well-defined investment strategy that aligns with your financial goals.

What are the risks of investing in growth stocks?

Investing in growth stocks can be a great way to achieve strong returns, but it also comes with certain risks. Here are a few of the risks to consider when investing in growth stocks:

High Valuation Risk: Growth stocks tend to trade at higher valuations than value stocks, so there's a risk that the stock's price may not be justified by the company's fundamentals. High valuation can lead to a stock to be overpriced and may result in disappointment in future returns.

Earnings Risk: Growth stocks often have high expectations for earnings growth, which means that if a company misses its earnings estimates, its stock price may drop. This can be especially true for companies that have high P/E ratios.

Industry Risk: Companies that operate in a specific industry are subject to the risks of that industry. For example, companies in the technology sector are subject to rapid technological change, while companies in the healthcare sector may be subject to changes in government regulations.

Interest rate Risk: Growth stocks are sensitive to changes in interest rates, as they are more reliant on future earnings than current dividends. When interest rates rise, the value of future earnings may decrease, causing the stock price to fall.

Concentration Risk: Investing in a small number of growth stocks can lead to concentration risk, which means that if one of the stocks in your portfolio performs poorly, it can have a significant impact on your overall returns.

Political and Economic Risk: Political and economic events such as war, natural disasters, and changes in government policies can also impact a growth stock's performance.

It's important to keep in mind that investing in growth stocks carries a higher level of risk than investing in value stocks. It's important to diversify your portfolio, do your own research and have a well-defined investment strategy that aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance.

GROWTH STOCK APPROACH

Every investor would like to select a list of securities that will do better than the average over period of years.

A growth stock may be defined as one which has done this in the past and is expected to do so in the future.

[A company with an ordinary record cannot be called a growth company or a "growth stock" merely because its proponent expects it to do better than the average in the future.  It is just a "promising company."]

It seems only logical that the intelligent investor should concentrate upon the selection of growth stocks.

It is mere statistical chore to identify companies that have "outperformed the averages" in the past.

However, investing successfully in them is more complicated.



Two Catches of Growth Stock Investing

Two catches to watch out for in growth investing.

1.  The common stocks with good records and apparently good prospects sell at correspondingly high prices. 

• The investor may be right in his judgement of their prospects and still not fare particularly well, merely because he has paid in full (and perhaps overpaid) for the expected prosperity.

2.  His judgement as to the future may prove wrong. 

• Unusually rapid growth cannot keep up forever; when a company has already registered a brilliant expansion, its very increase in size makes a repetition of its achievement very difficult.  
• At some point the growth curve flattens out, and in many cases it turns downward.

Naturally, the purchase at a time when popular growth stocks were most favoured and active in the market would have had disastrous consequences.

• They were too obvious a choice.  
• Their future was already being paid for in the price.  
• Popular growth stocks may have failed to continue their progress and have even reported downright disappointing results.

How can your investment into growth stocks be protected?

Presumably, it is the function of intelligent investment to overcome these hazards by the exercise of sound judgement and skillful selection.

This is the natural and appropriate endeavour for the enterprising investor.

Benjamin Graham regrets that he has little concrete guidance to offer the enterprising investor in this field.

The exercise of specialized foresight, the weighing of future probabilities and possibilities are not to be learned out of books - nor can they be aided much by suggested rules and techniques.

Elaborate study of the life cycle of industries and discussing a number of "symptoms of decay"; by noticing of which the alert investor may escape out of a once expanding industry before it is too late.

These suggested techniques require more ability and application than most investors can bring to bear on the problem.

[It is debatable whether once an industry has turned downward, it will never recover and that all securities within it must be permanently avoided.]



More guidance on Growth Stock Investing

The stock of a growing company, if purchasable at a suitable price, is obviously preferable to others.

No matter how enthusiastic the investor may feel about the prospects of a particular company, however, he should set a limit upon the price that he is willing to pay for such prospects.

• Such a rule would result at times in the missing of an unusually good opportunity. 
• More often, it would mean the investor's saving himself from "going overboard" on an issue that looked especially good to him and everyone else and consequently was selling much too high.

An illustration of investing in growth stocks

Two highly successful enterprises and both were considered to have excellent prospects of long-term growth.  Both were priced at 22 times that year's earnings.  The average price of Company A in 1939 was 62 and the price of company B in 1939 was 42.  The ordinary investor was as likely to buy one issue as the other.

Company A 's earnings had risen from $2.9 per share in 1939 to $10.90 per share in 1947.  Its price was equivalent to 150 or much more than double its 1939 average.  In the same years, the profits of Company B had moved up from $1.89 to $2.13, in spite of the record prosperity of 1947 and its price had fallen from 42 to 29.


                       Company A        Company B               Company C
                       1939    1947       1939   1947               1939    1947

Price               62         150         42       29                        6      26
Earnings        2.9         10.9      1.89    2.13                  0.13     3.14
P/E                 22                        22


The choice between the attractive issue that turns out well and the one that does poorly is by no means easy to make in the growth-stock field.


At the same time, it might be interesting to add a third pharmaceutical Company C which was by no means well regarded in 1939 - for its average price was only 6 (as against 28 in 1929) and it paid no dividend.  On its past record it could not qualify at all as a growth issue.  Yet in 1947 its earnings were $3.14 per share as against only 13 cents in 1939, and its April price in 1948 had risen to 26 - a much better percentage gain than CompanyA's.

The best opportunity in the field of drug stocks turned out to be where it was least expected - an all too frequent happening.


Inferences from the above illustration for investing in Growth Stocks

• Superior results may be obtained in this field if the choices are competently made.
• Even with careful selection, some of the individual issues may fare relatively poorly.  Some may actually decline and others may have only slight advances
• Thus for good results in the growth stock field there is need not only for skillful analysis but for ample diversification as well.

Summary on investing in Growth Stocks

1. The enterprising investor may properly buy growth stocks.
2. He should beware of paying excessively for them.  He might well limit the price by some practical rule.
3. A growth stock program will not be automatically successful; its outcome will depend on the foresight and judgement of the investor or his advisors rather than on any  clear-cut methods of analysis.

The preferred stocks to own - Growth Stocks at suitable prices. Do not overpay to own them.

The stock of a growing company, if purchasable at a suitable price, is obviously preferable to others.

The choice between the attractive issue that turns out well and the one that does poorly is by no means easy to make in the growth-stock field.

However, superior results may be obtained in this field if the choices are competently made.  

Even with careful selection, some of the individual issues may fare relatively poorly. 

Equity Investments - Analyzing a Company - Types of Stock

1. Growth Company and Growth StockA growth company is a company that consistently grows by investing in projects that will generate growth. A growth stock, however, is a stock that earns a higher rate of return over stocks with a similar risk profile.
   
   Feasibly, a company could be a growth company, but its stock could be a value stock if it is trading below its peers of similar risk.

2. Defensive Company and Defensive StockA defensive company is a company whose earnings are relatively unaffected in a business cycle downturn. A defensive company is typically reflective of products that we "need" versus "want". A food company, such as Kellogg, is considered a defensive company. A defensive stock, however, will hold its value relatively well in a business cycle downturn.

3. Cyclical Company and Cyclical StockA cyclical company is a company whose earnings are affected relative to a business cycle. A cyclical company is typically reflects products we "want". A retail store, such as The Gap, is considered a cyclical company. A cyclical stock, however, will move with the market in relation to the business cycle.

4. Speculative Company and Speculative Stock.A speculative company is a company that invests in a business with an uncertain outcome. An oil exploration company is an example of a speculative company. A speculative stock, however, is a stock that has potential for a large return, as well as the potential for considerable losses. An example of speculative stocks can be found in the tech bubble, where investors put money into speculative stocks, but the investor could have been hurt financially or made large gains depending on the stock the investor invested in.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/equity-investments/analyzing-companies-stock-types.asp#ixzz1yf8SKSRC

Explanations for the Erratic Price Behaviour of some of the Most Successful and Impressive Enterprises

Growth Stock Paradox: The more successful the company, the greater are likely to be the fluctuations in the price of its shares.

The argument made above should explain the often erratic price behavior of our most successful and impressive enterprises. 

• Our favorite example is the monarch of them all—International Business Machines. The price of its shares fell from 607 to 300 in seven months in 1962–63; after two splits its price fell from 387 to 219 in 1970. 
• Similarly, Xerox—an even more impressive earnings gainer in recent decades—fell from 171 to 87 in 1962–63, and from 116 to 65 in 1970. 

These striking losses 

• did not indicate any doubt about the future long-term growth of IBM or Xerox; 
• they reflected instead a lack of confidence in the premium valuation that the stock market itself had placed on these excellent prospects.

Be careful with companies in formation - Wait For Earnings

Without Earnings, Nothing To Measure

Graham was suspicious of 'hot' or fast-growth stocks because their promise relies on the prediction of ever-increasing future earnings with little historical evidence that the company can consistently produce ever-rising future earnings.

He warned the growth stock investor to seek two things:

• Assurance that growth will continue
• Assurance that the investor isn't paying too high a price for future growth.

Peter Lynch warns investors to be especially careful with companies in formation.  "Wait for earnings," he cautions.

• Though Lynch has done very well with some initial public offerings in particular (he was an original investor in Federal Express, "I'd say three out of four have been long-term disappointments."

Venture capital operations

Many high-tech, bio-tech or other emerging technology companies operate more like venture capital operations.

Venture capitalists demand guarantees of high returns because the risk is high that earnings will be slow in arriving, or will never materialize at all.

The venture capitalist is betting on a technology and the talent to put that technology into use.

Venture capital investment is best practiced by those who know a particular industry extremely well.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Conclusion: Numbers Matter

Some investors like to have a gut feeling about the business they are buying.

In the speculative-growth market, unfortunately, that's often difficult.  

Many of these companies are bringing new concepts to market, and in the case of Internet companies, they're doing it in a new and evolving medium.

Experience can be a poor judge of their viability.

Five years ago in 1994, it would have been hard to believe that an Internet company (Internet?  What's that?) would have a market capitalization of more than $100 billion by the end of 1999.

And that may be a good lesson for investing in the speculative-growth market:  Trust the numbers, not your gut.

Sure, Yahoo is a risk.  The Internet is still evolving, and could look very different a few years from now.

But a disciplined analysis of its financial statements indicates that Yahoo is making increasingly efficient use of its assets, generating consistent sales growth, increasing net margins, and delivering cash from operations.

That's what we want from a speculative-growth stock.


Comment:  The Internet bubble burst in 2000.  To make profit in your investments, valuations and earnings were as important then as now.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Is it Fairly Valued?

Valuation is tough for speculative-growth companies, and it's especially tough for an Internet company like Yahoo.

Many of these companies have no earnings, and even when they do, ordinary valuation methods such as price/earnings rations tend to go out the window.

One popular way to value Internet companies is to look at the price/sales ratio and compare them with similar companies.

At the end of 1999, Yahoo traded for more than 200 times sales.  That's more expensive than any of the other major Internet stocks, such as dBay EBAY (120 times sales), America Online AOL (30 times sales), or Amazon (22 times sales).

Even among the notoriously pricey Internet stocks, Yahoo is expensive - but you could make a case that its huge audience and consistent profitability make it worth a premium.


Comment:  The Internet bubble soon burst in 2000.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - How Has the Stock Performed?

Since it started trading in 1996, Yahoo's stock has shot into the stratosphere along with many other Internet stocks in 1999.

It returned over 500% in both 1997 and 1998, and more than 200% in 1999.

Such performance is certainly impressive, but will be hard to maintain.

Speculative growth stocks in general, and Internet stocks in particular, are fragile.  They can crumble on a whisper of bad news and rally on an encouraging rumour, so be prepared for plenty of volatility.

There's not much you can do about that; to get those highs, you have to risk the lows.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - What Has Growth Done to the Balance Sheet?

Like most speculative-growth companies, Yahoo in 1999 doesn't generate enough cash internally to pay for an aggressive expansion.

It must look outside for capital - either by borrowing or by issuing stock in the equity markets.

Given the market's ravenous appetite for Internet stocks over the late 90s, Yahoo has understandably financed most of its expansion with equity.

It had its initial public offering in 1996, and since then it has issued stock to pay for its many acquisitions.

It has little long-term debt, which means it doesn't have to worry about interest payments.

Overall, its balance sheet looks very healthy.

In contrast, Amazon.com AMZN, another highly successful Internet company, has borrowed over $2 billion and is highly leveraged in 1999.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Is the Business Generating Cash?

A company can make a profit without generating any cash.

• It might, for example, plow every penny that rolls through the door into inventory.  
• Or, it may slash prices in order to log sales.  Receivables will rise, but the sales won't bring in any cash.

Neither of these decisions is necessarily bad, but each raises the risk that a company will face a financial crunch.  The inventories won't sell, or a company will fail to collect on its receivables.

That;s why its often a good idea to look at cash flow in addition to earnings.

To find a company's cash flow from operations, go to its Financials Report pages.

For Yahoo, we find that its operating cash flow improved from $ -15 million in 1997 to $216 million in 1999.  That means that the company has generated even more cash than its net income indicates - generally a good sign.

If we take cash flow from operations and subtract capital spending (money spent on property, plant, and equipment), the result is free cash flow, or the cash left over after investing in the growth of the business.

Yahoo's business doesn't require a lot of capital to grow, so its capital spending has been modest.  It's free cash flow was a healthy $59 million in 1998 and $167 million 1999.  Yahoo is generating plenty of cash in those years.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Are Net Margins on the Rise?

Although Yahoo is profitable, many speculative growth companies - including most Internet companies - lose money.

Of course, that is to be expected from a new venture.  It's investing heavily to exploit profit opportunities, and if those investments pay off, earnings will materialize.

But to curb risk, we want to find companies that are making progress toward profitability.

Even if a company is losing money, net margins should be improving, even if that means becoming less negative.  

Yahoo shows an encouraging trend in 1999.

• After losing money in its first three years, Yahoo made a profit in 1998, with a net margin close to 5%.  
• Furthermore, it had net margins above 20% in the third and fourth quarters of 1998 and the first quarter of 1999.  
• Net margins declined over the next few quarters because of non-cash charges resulting from mergers, but operating margins (which exclude such charges) remained solid.
• Yahoo appears to have left its money-losing phase behind.

(My comment:  A great company can still be a bad investment if you pay too high a price to own it.)

Speculative-Growth Stocks - What's the Growth Trend?

Rapid sales growth won't do us any good if it can't be sustained.

We want staying power, not sales growth of 50% one year and shrinkage the next.

Even though it has only been around for a few years, Yahoo has been one of the most consistent Internet stocks around, growing steadily without a lot of wild swings from quarter to quarter.  

• The pace of that growth has been steadily declining (from 230% in 1997 to 120% in the first quarter of 2000), but that's to be expected as a company gets bigger and grows from a larger base.  
• Yahoo has demonstrated a lot of staying power, at least by the standards of Internet stocks.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Is Sales Growth Outpacing Asset Growth?

The speculative-growth market is full of companies that are doubling their sales by doubling their assets.

This is a legitimate way to expand.  Investors pour additional capital into the business, which drums up new sales.

Eventually (we hope), the company reaches a critical mass at which it becomes a big moneymaker.

But to limit risk, we can focus on companies that are making more efficient use of their assets as they expand, generating rising sales on each $1 of capital.

Yahoo has done pretty well on this front.

• Between 1997 and 1998, its sales grew 18%, but its assets grew even faster, at 333%.  
• In 1999, though, Yahoo's sales started to grow faster than its assets, indicating that it's starting to squeeze more growth out of its assets.  
• That tells us that Yahoo is growing quickly, but prudently.

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Introduction

Speculative-growth stocks can inspire dreams of wealth - and nightmares of poverty.

These companies are often new ventures selling something people want, generating rapid revenue growth, but incurring high expenses as they strive to become a permanent fixture of the corporate landscape.

One might be the next Microsoft MSFT.  Or the next Atari.

Their defining characteristics are rapid revenue growth but slower or spotty earnings growth - strong sales, in other words, but a lagging bottom line.

In fact, many speculative growth companies lose money - lots of it.  That's not much inducement to invest.

Still, corporate America's future heavyweights and best investments may lurk in this high-risk, high-reward corner of the market.

It's possible to curb some of the risk, too.

For example, Yahoo YHOO, the World Wide Web portal was one of the hottest Internet stocks of the 1990s.