The Bank of England is warning a financial crash is coming

Here is a summary of the entire video transcript, which analyzes the Bank of England's dire Financial Stability Report:

Core Message: The Bank of England is issuing an unprecedented warning that the global and UK financial system is on the brink of a major crisis, with risks higher than at any point since 2008.

Primary Risks Identified:

1. AI Asset Bubble: Share prices for AI companies are at dot-com bubble levels (US) and post-2008 crisis highs (UK). A "sharp correction" (crash) of ~40% is seen as "increasingly plausible." This is systemically dangerous because AI investment is fueled by high corporate debt, meaning a failure could ripple catastrophically through interconnected lenders.

2. Shadow Banking Time Bomb: The greatest risk has shifted from traditional banks to the massive, unregulated "shadow banking" sector (private equity, hedge funds, private credit). This sector has never been tested in a major downturn, and regulators admit they are "flying blind" about how it would collapse.

3. Echoes of 2008: The conditions that caused the last crisis are reappearing: high corporate debt, weak lending standards, and opaque financial structures that hide true risk, making the system vulnerable to a chain-reaction failure.

4. Sovereign Debt Fragility: Governments have high debt levels, limiting their capacity to bail out the financial system again. This could trigger a sovereign debt crisis alongside a market crash.

5. Real-Economy Neglect: While finance fuels speculative bubbles, it is failing to lend to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), starving the real economy of the investment needed for growth and employment.

6. External Shock Amplifiers: Geopolitical tensions, climate change (creating uninsurable assets), and unregulated crypto markets are unquantified risks that could exacerbate a financial meltdown.

Key Conclusions:

• Interconnected & Opague: The system is a web of interconnected risk that regulators cannot fully see or measure. A shock in one area (e.g., AI) will cause "cross-contamination" and spread rapidly.

• Inevitable Crash: The speaker interprets the Bank's unusually alarmed tone as a signal that a major crash is now considered a certainty—only the timing is in question.

• Public Impact: A crisis will not be contained to finance; it will directly hit households through job losses, credit crunches, and increased stress on mortgages and rents.

Final Takeaway: The Bank of England's report is not a reassurance of stability but a stark admission of "massive financial instability." It is a warning that the financial system, through speculation and neglect of the real economy, is creating the conditions for its own—and the public's—downfall.

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Here are the main points from the first 5 minutes of the video transcript:

1. Deteriorating Risk Environment: The Bank of England's report states that the risk environment for the UK economy has deteriorated significantly, indicating a grim outlook.

2. Global Economic Threats: The report cites high global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and stressed sovereign debt markets as increasing the probability of global shocks. Cyber risks are also rising.

3. Primary Concern: AI Asset Bubble: The Bank is particularly worried about overvalued AI companies.

   • Comparisons to Past Crashes: AI share prices in the US are near levels seen before the dot-com bubble burst (2000). In the UK, share prices are at their highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

   • Risk of a "Sharp Correction": A major market crash is seen as "increasingly plausible," with potential falls of around 40%.

   • Systemic Danger: The risk is amplified because AI investment is fueled by rapidly rising corporate debt. A setback in the AI ecosystem could cause catastrophic, widespread losses across interconnected lenders and investors ("ripple through").

4. Fragile Credit Markets & Echoes of 2008: Beneath a calm surface, credit markets are fragile.

   • High Corporate Leverage: Companies are heavily indebted.

   • Weak Lending Standards & Opaque Structures: The Bank admits there are weak loan underwriting standards and the use of complex, opaque financial structures—similar to the conditions that preceded the 2008 crisis.

   • Hidden, Interconnected Risk: These structures make true risk appraisal very difficult. Recent US debt defaults show how losses can suddenly hit multiple market participants at once because everyone is interconnected, just as in 2008.

5. The New Threat: "Shadow Banking": While the 2008 crisis was centered on traditional banks, the current major risk lies in the "shadow banking" sector (private equity, private credit, hedge funds, associated insurance).

• Massive Expansion & Untested: This sector has grown massively since 2008 and has never been tested in a major macroeconomic downturn.

• Flying Blind: The Bank of England effectively admits it is "flying blind" regarding how this shadow banking sector would behave in a crisis, which is not reassuring.

Here are the main points from minutes 5 to 10 of the video transcript:

1. Limited Government Fiscal Capacity: The Bank of England believes many governments (including the UK's) have high debt-to-GDP ratios, limiting their ability to borrow more to bail out the banking sector in a future crisis. This is worsened by demographic pressures and rising defense spending.

2. Risk of Sovereign Debt/Bond Market Shock: If the perception of limited fiscal capacity prevails, it could amplify risks and trigger a sovereign debt or bond market shock, compounding a potential credit or stock market meltdown.

3. UK Highly Exposed to Global Contagion: The UK is "highly exposed to global contagion." Due to deep connections with global markets (US, Europe, etc.), a crisis in one major financial center could easily spill over to the UK.

4. Risk of Bank Panic & Credit Crunch: In a crisis, banks could panic, leading to destructive actions like "fire sales" of assets and cutting off finance to households and businesses. This would deepen a downturn at the exact moment the economy needs support.

5. Questionable Resilience of UK Banks: While the Bank claims UK banks are "resilient," the speaker is skeptical. The tests focus on traditional banks, but the real risk is in the shadow banking sector. If shadow banking fails, it will drag down traditional banks, making the reassurance "almost worthless."

6. Collapse of Lending to the Real Economy (SMEs): Despite the financial sector creating systemic risk, it is failing its core purpose: providing loans for real-economy investment. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the real drivers of UK growth and employment, are not getting access to finance. The finance sector is "doing everything it can to bring down the real economy."

7. Household Debt & Stressed Renters: The Bank notes household debt is currently stable, but with major caveats.

   • While the mortgage market is under control, households are stressed.

   • Renters are "heavily exposed" to cost-of-living pressures and interest rate sensitivity. A financial crisis would severely stress anyone paying a mortgage or rent.

8. Systemic "Cross-Contamination" Risk: The Bank identifies "cross-contamination" as the mechanism for crisis. The speaker gives the example of hedge funds gambling ~£100 billion in UK gilt markets. A shock (like an AI meltdown) could cause this market to collapse too, with unpredictable consequences. The Bank is "petrified" of this interconnectedness but cannot quantify the scale of the risk.

Here are the main points from minutes 10 to the end of the video (17 min):

1. Unregulated Financial Innovation (Crypto): The Bank of England admits it is "way behind the curve" in monitoring risks from new financial innovations like stablecoins, distributed ledgers (e.g., Bitcoin), and crypto assets. While crypto may not be the primary cause of a crash, its volatility could exacerbate problems in a crisis.

2. Direct & Unquantified Climate Financial Risks: Climate change is creating direct financial risks (fires, floods, crop failures).

   • Asset Devaluation: Many assets are becoming uninsurable, which has massive consequences for financial markets and lending.

   • Risk Shift: The financial risk is shifting onto households (who can't move or insure) and ultimately the state, which picks up the bill.

   • Regulatory Blind Spot: The Bank recognizes this is happening but is again unable to quantify the risk, and no action is being taken.

3. The Bank's Overall Conclusion & Contradiction:

   • Official Stance: The core banking system is "strong," but risks are increasing.

   • Key Risk Factors: Overpriced AI markets, leveraged "shadow banking"/hedge funds (creating market opacity), sovereign debt fragility, and climate/geopolitical shocks.

   • Core Failure: There is "too little money going into actual investment" in the real economy.

4. The Speaker's Interpretation - A Warning of Imminent Crash: The speaker reads between the lines of the Bank's cautious language:

   • The Bank is signaling that risks are substantial and they are "petrified."

   • The report is a warning to "be careful" because a crisis is likely.

   • Given the Bank's failure to predict 2008, this explicit warning suggests a crash is now seen as a certainty—it's only a matter of "when, not if."

   • Final Verdict: We are not facing financial stability, but "massive financial instability."

5. Call to Action: The video ends with a prompt for viewers to engage in a poll, visit the speaker's blog for a transcript and resources, and consider writing to their MP to become a "campaigner" on the issue.

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A summary:

Bank of England Financial Stability Report Overview

• The Bank of England has released a financial stability report that highlights a significant deterioration in the risk environment surrounding the UK economy.
• This report is particularly critical as it reflects the concerns of a traditionally conservative institution regarding the current economic outlook.
• The Bank indicates that global economic uncertainties remain elevated due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and stressed sovereign debt markets.
• There is a notable increase in cyber risks as geopolitical conditions worsen, with a specific emphasis on the potential volatility of AI asset valuations.

AI Asset Valuations and Market Concerns

• The Bank of England expresses concern over the current share prices of AI companies, which are nearing levels reminiscent of the dot-com bubble in the USA.
• In the UK, share prices are at their highest since the 2008 financial crisis, raising alarms about a potential market correction.
• Historically, similar conditions in 2000 and 2008 led to share price declines of approximately 40%.
• A sharp market correction is deemed increasingly plausible, which could have severe implications for AI infrastructure investments funded by rising corporate debt.
• The interconnectedness between AI firms and credit markets raises the risk of rapid loss propagation if AI investments falter.

Fragility of Credit Markets

• The Bank of England highlights that credit markets appear fragile despite current superficial stability.
• High corporate leverage and weak loan underwriting standards are prevalent, with complex financial structures resembling those before the 2008 crisis.
• The Bank suggests that there are significant parallels between current conditions and those preceding the global financial crisis, particularly regarding risk appraisal challenges.
• Recent high-profile debt defaults in the USA illustrate how interconnected the debt market is, indicating that a failure in one area could lead to widespread repercussions.

Investor Awareness and Shadow Banking Risks

• The Bank of England advises investors to thoroughly understand their risk exposure instead of relying on potentially outdated credit ratings.
• They emphasize that previous crises were exacerbated by misleading assessments of bank asset quality.
• The report indicates that risks are not confined to traditional banking but extend to the shadow banking sector, including private equity and hedge funds.
• The shadow banking sector has expanded significantly since 2008 and has not experienced a macroeconomic downturn of comparable magnitude, making it a potential source of systemic risk.

Global Debt and Economic Pressures

• The Bank of England expresses concern that many governments are currently facing high debt-to-GDP ratios, limiting their capacity for further borrowing.
• Demographic changes and increased defense spending are contributing to fiscal pressures that could impact the banking sector during a crisis.
• The potential for a bond market shock exists, which could amplify risks in the context of a simultaneous credit and stock market meltdown.
• The UK is highly exposed to global economic contagion, indicating that financial stress in one major market could adversely affect others.

Banking Sector Resilience and Systemic Risks

• While the Bank of England claims that UK banks are currently resilient, there are doubts about the accuracy of these assessments given the focus on traditional banking rather than shadow banking risks.
• The core function of banks to provide loans for real economic growth is not being fulfilled, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises that are crucial for job creation.
• The report highlights a disconnect where financial institutions are not facilitating necessary investments while simultaneously increasing systemic risks.
• Household debt levels are stable, but underlying stress among renters and the broader economy remains a concern.

Climate Risk and Financial Stability

• The Bank of England acknowledges that climate risk is becoming increasingly significant and has direct financial implications.
• Extreme weather events are leading to uninsurable assets, which poses challenges for financial markets and lending practices.
• The burden of climate risk is shifting to households while the state is often left to cover the financial fallout.
• Despite recognizing these risks, the Bank admits it is unable to quantify the full impact of climate-related financial risks at this time.

Conclusions and Future Outlook

• The Bank of England concludes that while the core banking system is robust, the escalating risks from overpriced AI markets, leveraged non-bank finance, and geopolitical factors are concerning.
• There is a lack of adequate investment in the real economy, which is exacerbated by speculative activities in sovereign debt markets.
• The report suggests that the financial system is increasingly unstable, with a high likelihood of a significant market crash on the horizon.
• The Bank's cautious tone indicates a recognition of substantial risks that could lead to systemic failures, highlighting the need for vigilance and proactive measures.

Market drops: A 2% drop (normal fluctuation), a 10% drop (market correction), a 20% drop (bear market) and a 40% drop (severe bear market or a crash)

Summary:

How frequent are these drops?

2% drop:  common

10% drop:  one every 2 years

20% drop:  one every 5 years

40% drop:  one every 25 years

A 2% drop is a normal fluctuation within a healthy market, not a crisis. Acting on emotion is the single biggest mistake an investor can make.

A 10% drop, officially considered a "market correction," is a different beast entirely from a 2% dip. It's sharper, more painful, and the sense of panic is palpable. 

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced a correction of 10% or more over 40 times. That's roughly one every two years. It's a normal, albeit unpleasant, part of investing. Every single one of them, to date, has been followed by a recovery and a new high.

A 10% correction is a test of your financial plan and your emotional fortitude. For a well-prepared investor, it's an expected part of the journey and can even be an opportunity. For the unprepared, it's a crisis. Your response should be dictated by your plan, not by the screaming headlines.

A 20% drop, officially crossing into "Bear Market" territory, is a profound psychological and financial event. The sense of fear is pervasive, and the "this time is different" narrative feels overwhelmingly convincing.

More common than most people think. Bear markets are a regular, though painful, feature of the investing landscape.

• Frequency: Since World War II, there have been 14 bear markets (defined as a 20% or greater drop from peak to trough) in the S&P 500.

• That's roughly one every 5-6 years. They are an inevitable part of the market cycle, not a bizarre anomaly.

• Duration & Severity: On average, these bear markets last about 14 months and see a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 33%.

• The Crucial Context: Recovery is the Norm. While painful, every single one of these bear markets has eventually been followed by a new all-time high. The bull markets that follow are, on average, much longer and stronger, lasting about 6 years with an average gain of over 160%.

The key takeaway: A 20% drop is a severe but normal event. It feels like the end of the world, but history shows it is a valley on the long-term path upward.

A 40% drop is a catastrophic event in the financial markets, known as a severe bear market or even a crash. These events are rare, but they are seared into the collective memory of investors because of the immense financial and psychological damage they cause.  

In the modern history of the U.S. stock market (primarily using the S&P 500 and its predecessor indices as a benchmark), a peak-to-trough decline of 40% or more has occurred only a handful of times.

Since 1900, there have been five such devastating declines:

1. The Great Depression (1929-1932): The mother of all market crashes. The stock market plummeted nearly 90% at its worst point. A 40% drop was passed early on in a long, terrifying slide.

   • Cause: A speculative bubble, a banking crisis, and catastrophic economic policy (protectionist tariffs, monetary contraction).

   • Recovery Time: It took until 1954 for the market to regain its 1929 peak—over 25 years.

2. The 1937-1938 "Recession within a Depression": After a partial recovery from the lows of 1932, the market experienced another sharp drop of about -60% from its 1937 peak.

   • Cause: Premature fiscal and monetary tightening by the government and the Federal Reserve.

   • Recovery Time: The market did not sustainably exceed its 1937 peak until the post-WWII boom in the late 1940s.

3. The 1973-1974 Bear Market: A brutal, grinding bear market where the S&P 500 fell -48%.

   • Cause: The OPEC oil embargo, skyrocketing inflation ("stagflation"), and the collapse of the "Nifty Fifty" blue-chip stocks.

   • Recovery Time: It took 7.5 years for the market to reach a new inflation-adjusted high in 1982.

4. The 2000-2002 Dot-Com Crash: After the implosion of the tech bubble, the S&P 500 fell -49%.

   • Cause: Speculative mania in internet and technology stocks with no earnings, followed by a severe recession and the 9/11 attacks.

   • Recovery Time: The S&P 500 reached a new nominal high in 2007, but when adjusted for inflation, it did not fully recover until 2013.

5. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500 plunged -57% at its nadir.

   • Cause: A housing bubble, a crisis in subprime mortgages, and a resulting global financial system meltdown.

   • Recovery Time: The S&P 500 reached a new nominal high in 2013, about 5.5 years after the peak.

How Often Has the Stock Market Fallen 40% or More? A handful of times.

A 40% drop is a catastrophic event in the financial markets, known as a severe bear market or even a crash. These events are rare, but they are seared into the collective memory of investors because of the immense financial and psychological damage they cause.

Here’s a breakdown of how often it has happened and the historical context.

How Often Has the Stock Market Fallen 40% or More?

In the modern history of the U.S. stock market (primarily using the S&P 500 and its predecessor indices as a benchmark), a peak-to-trough decline of 40% or more has occurred only a handful of times.

Since 1900, there have been five such devastating declines:

1. The Great Depression (1929-1932): The mother of all market crashes. The stock market plummeted nearly 90% at its worst point. A 40% drop was passed early on in a long, terrifying slide.

   • Cause: A speculative bubble, a banking crisis, and catastrophic economic policy (protectionist tariffs, monetary contraction).

   • Recovery Time: It took until 1954 for the market to regain its 1929 peak—over 25 years.

2. The 1937-1938 "Recession within a Depression": After a partial recovery from the lows of 1932, the market experienced another sharp drop of about -60% from its 1937 peak.

   • Cause: Premature fiscal and monetary tightening by the government and the Federal Reserve.

   • Recovery Time: The market did not sustainably exceed its 1937 peak until the post-WWII boom in the late 1940s.

3. The 1973-1974 Bear Market: A brutal, grinding bear market where the S&P 500 fell -48%.

   • Cause: The OPEC oil embargo, skyrocketing inflation ("stagflation"), and the collapse of the "Nifty Fifty" blue-chip stocks.

   • Recovery Time: It took 7.5 years for the market to reach a new inflation-adjusted high in 1982.

4. The 2000-2002 Dot-Com Crash: After the implosion of the tech bubble, the S&P 500 fell -49%.

   • Cause: Speculative mania in internet and technology stocks with no earnings, followed by a severe recession and the 9/11 attacks.

   • Recovery Time: The S&P 500 reached a new nominal high in 2007, but when adjusted for inflation, it did not fully recover until 2013.

5. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500 plunged -57% at its nadir.

• Cause: A housing bubble, a crisis in subprime mortgages, and a resulting global financial system meltdown.

• Recovery Time: The S&P 500 reached a new nominal high in 2013, about 5.5 years after the peak.

Comments:

In 1973, I remembered the OPEC oil embargo and the stagflation it caused to the economy of the UK.  No knowledge of the impact on the stock market, but did noted the prices of properties dropped a lot.  Bank interest rates were sky high (> 10%) at one stage as the central bankers tried to reign in inflation.  Lesson learned:  despite the high interest rate, your cash actually lost value due to the high inflation.

I witnessed the October 1987 crash.  Still remembered the exact day as I happened to be with a stock broker, who lamented how this was going to affect the whole industry severely.  Just started my career and had not invested in the market then.  But it was educational watching the market crashed and rose rather quickly.  However, the impact on the stockbroking industry was real for those who were part of it.

My first stock was bought in 1993.  How intelligent was I in my investing?  On hindsight, I was not intelligent at all.   My buying and selling was based on tips, rumours, greed and fear.  I was very lucky to have an experienced investor who recommended me to buy certain counters and because I believe and know his ability and knowledge, I followed with his recommendations with little hesitation.  His briefing to me on the stock was often a less than 2 minutes brief.  "I think you should look into buying some of this company.  It is doing this and that.  It is a good company and its results have been this and that.  It also gives good dividends."  

Well, I did build up a portfolio of stocks.   Hardly look at the portfolio, as I was far too busy with my more important work.  It was fun seeing the portfolio value rose with the bull market of that time.  By 1994 or 1995, I felt something wasn't right.   Here I was working so hard to make a living but my customers and friends were all having a gala good time being rewarded by the stock market.  Teachers left their job to do multilevel marketing, as there were so much easy money there.  Accountants wanted to join as stockbrokers and there was a queue to be accepted.  House prices were up.  Economic activities were hot.  You couldn't be admitted to a hospital in Klang Valley, as the private hospitals ran out of bed space.  Restaurants were packed.  Employment was full and there was shortage of labour in many industries.  Many offices placed TV in their workplace to watch the teletext.   A speculator boasted for many months how he invested in the morning, and by the afternoon, he made RM 5,000.  Funnily, these observations made me uneasy.  Though I did not sell, I felt things were not right and I actually held back on my investing from 1995, observing the market going up and up over the next 2 years by the side-line.  How did I feel?  Having lunch with colleagues, and hearing them making money in stocks and you know you should know your risk tolerance and financial capacity.  Cash built up in the banks during that stage.  I just shut out the noise and the hypes as I felt the market was just too high.  Did I know how to value stocks at that time?  Not really.  Just a hunch only.

On the fateful day in October 1997, I was at a meeting overseas.  The conversation among the attendees focused on what was the start of the Asian Financial Crisis.  The Thai bath had fallen in value by a huge amount.   Malaysia was not affected yet.   Little did we realise Malaysia would be affected soon.   The Malaysian ringgit was soon affected.  Its stock market crashed too.  I was actually elated as I was cash rich and ready to pounce.  So many great stocks were sold down.  Yet, on hindsight, I was lucky but one of my pick did show up as poor.  One of the stock I picked was a stockbroking company.  But this was so cheap then.  Anyway, this company eventually recovered and it was a gain overall.  The Asian Financial Crisis was a very valuable lesson in my investing journey.   With money in the game, my portfolio which had gains turned into losses.  Did you examine your feelings then?   Why did not I sell the stocks?  Market was falling and yet the stocks were not sold?  Should have sold early, but the prices had already dropped?  So and so, a friend, had sold all and was totally out of the market, but the prices were already low.  Another shared after holding on for a while that she and her husband sold all their stocks and were now sitting sideline to get in later.  They sold at the lowest and a few years later when the market had recovered, they were still not invested.  In December 1997, I was in US for a holiday.  The exchange rate of US1 to MYR 2.20 had crashed to US 1 to MYR 3.50.   Suddenly, you felt everything was more expensive.  Luckily, the trip was booked before the crash occurred.

What would you have done?  A newbie in the stock market, now sitting with losses in his portfolio.   I discussed with my wife that perhaps we shouldn't be in the stock market at all.  It is too dangerous.  I did plough in more money into the market during the market crash.  What I did not know was the market at 600 could drop further.  Having not lived through a crash, losing money elicited various feelings.   Investing can be emotional, and ability to reign in your emotions is part of intelligent investing.   

I lived through the 2000-2002 Dot-Com Crash unscathed, as I was not in the US market then.  Internet was not so accessible then.  What changed in 2000?   During the Dot-Com boom, Warren Buffett was criticized for having lost his touch.  Post Dot-Com crash, he became a big hero.  Value investing became popular again.   I am a voracious reader of books. I spent at least a thousand and more on books every year.  Prior to 2000, I was probably reading the wrong books.  I read books on personal finance, economics and accounting.  There were interesting but not very helpful in investing.   Post 2000, investing books started to flood our local bookstores.  I probably have collected all the books that are interesting in investing in my library.  Also, internet was more accessible and you can learn a lot about investing in the internet too.   This consolidated my investing knowledge but can I translate this into practice.  

In 2002, I did a thorough analysis of my existing portfolio from 1993.   From 1997, after the Asian Financial Crisis, I had lived with the fact that I was carrying a loss in my portfolio of stocks.  I hardly sell my stocks as they were all very good companies.   Surprisingly, the majority of the stocks had recovered from the low and many were above my buying price.  Also, those that have recovered but still below my  buying price (capital loss), when the dividends received were added, the dividends added to my buying price of that stock!   Surprised by this revelation, I studied the portfolio to learn the valuable lessons it offered.  There were many valuable lessons learned.  This rewired my thinking, approach and feeling to owning stocks in the market for the long term.  This maybe also partly influenced by the book Stock for the Long Run by Siegel.     

Feeling confident, after discussing with my wife, we got a "tip" on a stock and I analysed this stock and bought.  Alas, the stock went up 100% and a few months later, I actually lost 50%.  This was another road-stop sign.  I told my wife that we should not buy any stocks again until I know what I am doing.'   The story is too long, and I shall stop here for now.  :-)

The Next Global Crash is Inevitable - Top Economist Professor Linda Yueh (An excellent video)

12 Aug 2024 Making Money Linda Yueh is Professor of Economics at London Business School and a Fellow at Oxford. She’s written a book called The Great Crashes: Lessons from Global Meltdowns and How to Prevent Them (https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/31558... )

Chapters: 00:00-00:34 - Intro 00:34-08:23 - Why crashes are inevitable 08:23-14:00 - What causes an economic depression? 14:00-18:51 - How credible leaders stop crashes 18:51-19:36 - Vanta ad 19:36-25:30 - Lessons we haven’t learnt 25:30-30:00 - Who gets bailed out? 30:00-32:34 How often do global crashes happen? 32:34-37:42 - What’s the biggest risk today? 37:42-38:41 - Manual ad 38:41-43:06 - What can we do to stop a great crash? 43:06-46:34 - How a crash in China could have global consequences 46:34-51:51 - Why are crashes more frequent now? 51:51-56:55 - Is AI a bubble? 56:55-59:53 - Can cults of personality cause crashes? 59:53-01:04:00 - The great reset 01:04:00-01:08:34 - Could climate change cause the next great crash? 01:08:34-01:13:17 - We need to learn from history and not repeat mistakes 01:13:17-01:15:03 - Financial coaching 1:1