What does the bond market turmoil mean for investors?

US Treasuries have suffered the worst start since 1788 after falling by 9.8 per cent this year, triggering experts to question the 60/40 portfolio strategy

The bond market has suffered a record $10 trillion sell-off this year. AP

Harvey Jones

Jul 05, 2022

Investors fretting over this year’s $13 trillion global stock market crash may have overlooked similar carnage in a market that is actually more important for the global economy.

The bond market has also suffered a record $10tn sell-off and this could hit investors just as hard because a strange thing is happening.

Both shares and bonds are crashing at the same time. That is something financial experts say isn’t supposed to happen.

But in 2022, it is. Which means there is no hiding place for investors in this troubled year. There may also be an opportunity, if you are sharp.

Retail investors may pay little attention to the bond market but institutions and governments have been known to obsess over it.

For them, the bond market is the big one. It is about triple the size of the global stock market and plays an essential role in keeping economic activity ticking. At the end of last year, the bond market was worth about $120tn, against $41.8tn for global shares.

If the bond market gets bumpy, everybody is in for a rough ride.

Governments issue bonds to raise money for their spending while companies use them to generate the funds they need to grow. Both promise to pay investors a fixed rate of interest over a preset term, with a guarantee to return their original capital afterwards.

At maturity, the issuing government or company must repay the debt. If it cannot, there is trouble.

Bonds are traded by investors, which means their value can constantly change, depending on factors such as inflation, interest rates and demand. As is the case with shares, bond prices can rise and fall. Just not as much. Usually.

Ordinary investors rarely buy individual bonds but invest through a fund holding a spread of government or corporate bonds.

Bonds offer them a fixed rate of interest plus capital growth if prices rise, with fewer of the ups and downs you find with shares.

The two are supposed to be non-correlating assets. So, when shares fall, bonds are supposed to mitigate losses by standing firm.

The one thing they are not supposed to do is crash simultaneously. Yet, that is what is happening right now.

In doing so, they have destroyed a golden rule of portfolio planning.

For decades, financial planners said the safest way to generate steady, strong long-term returns is to invest 60 per cent of your money in shares and 40 per cent in bonds.

The classic 60/40 portfolio strategy has generated an impressive average return of 11.1 per cent a year over the past decade.

You can even buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that automatically deliver this, such as the BlackRock 60/40 Target Allocation Fund or the Vanguard 60% Stock/40% Bond Portfolio.

The writing was on the wall for the 60/40 strategy last year, as US large-cap stocks hit record-high valuations, while US Treasury government bond yields neared record lows.

“For all intents and purposes, we think investors have many reasons to be concerned that the 60/40 might be dead,” Nick Cunningham, vice president of strategic advisory solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said last October.

This will hit investors who had even never heard of the 60/40 rule because “we see shades of the classic 60/40 present in many portfolios due to an over-concentration in the most familiar asset classes", Mr Cunningham added.

As this warning proves prescient, it may be worth looking at your portfolio to see how exposed you are to this double jeopardy.

This has been a challenging year across the board, says Jason Hollands, managing director of investment platform Bestinvest.

“2022 has seen one of the worst starts to a calendar year for core US assets on record,” he says.

US Treasuries have suffered the worst start to a year since 1788, according to Deutsche Bank, falling 9.8 per cent. Bloomberg

US Treasuries have suffered the worst start since 1788, according to Deutsche Bank, falling by 9.8 per cent. That isn’t supposed to happen to the bond market.

“At the same time, the S&P 500 Index of US shares has fallen 20.38 per cent, the worst first half for US equities since the Great Depression in 1932,” Mr Hollands says.

This is happening because central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, are throwing monetary policy into a sharp reverse.

After decades of slashing interest rates and pumping out stimulus, they are tightening as fast as they dare to curb inflation.

“Central bankers have now yanked away the key supports for equity and bond markets that turbocharged them in 2020 and 2021,” Mr Hollands says.

Rising interest rates are bad news for shares because higher borrowing costs squeeze both businesses and consumers, hitting profits.

Bonds suffer because they pay a fixed rate of interest, which looks a lot less attractive when rates are rising and investors can earn higher yields elsewhere.

The stock and bond sell-off isn’t over yet despite signs of a recovery in recent days, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.

Optimists convinced themselves that the Fed would curb rate increases for fear of tipping the US into recession, but this is a misreading.

“The Fed is in a hawkish mood. I think the start of another equity and bond market sell-off is nigh,” Mr Razaqzada says.

It is not all bad news, though.

Bonds do this odd thing that sometimes confuses private investors. When bond prices fall, yields rise.

While the bond price crash is bad news for existing holders, new bond investors are earning a higher rate of income. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have almost doubled from 1.63 per cent to 3.06 per cent this year.

Stock and bond market crashes have one thing in common. Both can throw up opportunities for forward-looking investors.

The Fed will continue to raise rates this year but it also wants room to cut when the US economy slips into recession as a result, probably in 2023, says Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, managing director of asset allocation research at Fidelity Investments.

“If inflation comes down, real rates, which are yields minus the rate of inflation, could rise further into positive territory after being below zero for the past two years,” she says.

This would allow government bonds to carry out their old job of providing a steady level of income for lower-risk savers and pensioners. Bonds could then start making a meaningful contribution to that balanced 60/40 portfolio split again.

Bonds are cheaper than they were after this year’s dip and are starting to look better value for money.

It could soon be time to start buying bonds again, ideally before the Fed starts cutting rates next year to reverse the recession, at which point bond yields will fall again, Ms Emsbo-Mattingly says.

“But the window of opportunity for yield-seekers may be brief,” she says.

There are hundreds of bond ETFs to choose from, including iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF, iShares Global Government Bond UCITS ETF (IGLO) or db x-trackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF.

Accurately timing bond fund purchases is no easier than timing the stock market, yet recent volatility is throwing up an opportunity.

It may even make bonds exciting.

Updated: July 05, 2022, 1:00 PM

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2022/07/05/what-does-the-bond-market-turmoil-mean-for-investors/?utm_source=paid+google&utm_medium=paidsearch&utm_campaign=us+uk+always+on&utm_term=&gclid=Cj0KCQjwtsCgBhDEARIsAE7RYh1ru7FE_OrhxgydUWGygjSPzvR2gW8TwdoBc7cuP1pnWRt4dXjGcFYaAslIEALw_wcB

Growth Stocks

How to select growth stocks?

Selecting growth stocks can be a challenging task, but there are a few key factors to consider when evaluating potential investments. Here are a few strategies that may help you identify growth stocks:

Look for companies with strong revenue and earnings growth: Companies that have consistently grown their revenues and earnings over time are more likely to continue growing in the future. Look for companies with strong revenue and earnings growth rates, and compare them to industry averages.

Look for companies with a competitive advantage: Companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage, such as a strong brand, proprietary technology, or a large market share, are more likely to continue growing in the future.

Look for companies with a solid management team: A strong management team is essential for a company's long-term growth. Look for companies with a track record of success and a clear vision for the future.

Look for companies in growing industries: Companies that operate in growing industries, such as technology, healthcare, or renewable energy, are more likely to benefit from long-term growth trends in those industries.

Look at valuation metrics: Growth stocks tend to trade at higher valuations than value stocks, so it's important to consider a company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and other valuation metrics to ensure that you are getting a good deal.

Do your own research: It's important to conduct thorough research on the companies you are considering investing in. Look at their financial statements, management team, and industry trends to identify companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.

It's worth noting that past performance is not a guarantee of future results and that investing in the stock market carries risk. It's always good to do your own research, invest in a diverse set of assets, and have a well-defined investment strategy that aligns with your financial goals.

What are the risks of investing in growth stocks?

Investing in growth stocks can be a great way to achieve strong returns, but it also comes with certain risks. Here are a few of the risks to consider when investing in growth stocks:

High Valuation Risk: Growth stocks tend to trade at higher valuations than value stocks, so there's a risk that the stock's price may not be justified by the company's fundamentals. High valuation can lead to a stock to be overpriced and may result in disappointment in future returns.

Earnings Risk: Growth stocks often have high expectations for earnings growth, which means that if a company misses its earnings estimates, its stock price may drop. This can be especially true for companies that have high P/E ratios.

Industry Risk: Companies that operate in a specific industry are subject to the risks of that industry. For example, companies in the technology sector are subject to rapid technological change, while companies in the healthcare sector may be subject to changes in government regulations.

Interest rate Risk: Growth stocks are sensitive to changes in interest rates, as they are more reliant on future earnings than current dividends. When interest rates rise, the value of future earnings may decrease, causing the stock price to fall.

Concentration Risk: Investing in a small number of growth stocks can lead to concentration risk, which means that if one of the stocks in your portfolio performs poorly, it can have a significant impact on your overall returns.

Political and Economic Risk: Political and economic events such as war, natural disasters, and changes in government policies can also impact a growth stock's performance.

It's important to keep in mind that investing in growth stocks carries a higher level of risk than investing in value stocks. It's important to diversify your portfolio, do your own research and have a well-defined investment strategy that aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance.

The Risks of Bond Investing: Understanding Dangers in Fixed-Income Investing

There's no such thing as a sure thing, even in the bond world

From Paul Conley, former About.com Guide

Bonds are among the safest investments in the world. But that hardly means that they’re risk free. Here’s a look at some of the dangers inherent in fixed-income investing.

• Inflation Risk: Because of their relative safety, bonds tend not to offer extraordinarily high returns. That makes them particularly vulnerable when inflation rises.
  Imagine, for example, that you buy a Treasury bond that pays interest of 3.32%. That’s about as safe an investment as you can find. As long as you hold the bond until maturity and the U.S. government doesn’t collapse, nothing can go wrong….unless inflation climbs. If the rate of inflation rises to, say, 4 percent, your investment is not “keeping up with inflation.” In fact, you’d be “losing” money because the value of the cash you invested in the bond is declining. You’ll get your principal back when the bond matures, but it will be worth less.
  Note: there are exceptions to this rule. For example, the Treasury Department also sells an investment vehicle called Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
• Interest rate risk: Bond prices have an inverse relationship to interest rates. When one rises, the other falls.
  If you have to sell a bond before it matures, the price you can fetch will be based on the interest rate environment at the time of the sale. In other words, if rates have risen since you “locked in” your return, the price of the security will fall.
  All bonds fluctuate with interest rates. Calculating the vulnerability of any individual bond to a rate shift involves an enormously complex concept called duration. But average investors need to know only two things about interest rate risk.
  First, if you hold a security until maturity, interest rate risk is not a factor. You’ll get back the entire principal upon maturity.
  Second, zero-coupon investments, which make all their interest payments when the bond matures, are the most vulnerable to interest rate swings.
• Default Risk: A bond is nothing more than a promise to repay the debt holder. And promises are made to be broken. Corporations go bankrupt. Cities and states default on muni bonds. Things happen...and default is the worst thing that can happen to a bondholder.
  There are two things to remember about default risk.
  First, you don’t need to weigh the risk yourself. Credit ratings agencies such as Moody’s do that. In fact, bond credit ratings are nothing more than a default scale. Junk bonds, which have the highest default risk, are at the bottom of the scale. Aaa rated corporate debt, where default is seen as extremely unlikely, is at the top.
  Second, if you’re buying U.S. government debt, your default risk is nonexistent. The debt issues sold by the Treasury Department are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the federal government. It’s inconceivable that the folks who actually print the money will default on their debt.
• Downgrade Risk: Sometimes you buy a bond with a high rating, only to find that Wall Street later sours on the issue. That’s downgrade risk.
  If the credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s lower their ratings on a bond, the price of those bonds will fall. That can hurt an investor who has to sell a bond before maturity. And downgrade risk is complicated by the next item on the list, liquidity risk.
• Liquidity risk: The market for bonds is considerable thinner than for stock. The simple truth is that when a bond is sold on the secondary market, there’s not always a buyer. Liquidity risk describes the danger that when you need to sell a bond, you won’t be able to.
  Liquidity risk is nonexistent for government debt. And shares in a bond fund can always be sold.
  But if you hold any other type of debt, you may find it difficult to sell.
• Reinvestment Risk: Many corporate bonds are callable. What that means is that the bond issuer reserves the right to “call” the bond before maturity and pay off the debt. That can lead to reinvestment risk.
  Issuers tend to call bonds when interest rates fall. That can be a disaster for an investor who thought he had locked in an interest rate and a level of safety.
  For example, suppose you had a nice, safe Aaa-rated corporate bond that paid you 4% a year. Then rates fall to $2%. Your bond gets called. You’ll get back your principal, but you won’t be able to find a new, comparable bond in which to invest that principal. If rates have fallen to 2%, you’re not going to get 4% with a nice, safe new Aaa-rated bond.
• Rip-off Risk: Finally, in the bond market there’s always the risk of getting ripped off. Unlike the stock market, where prices and transactions are transparent, most of the bond market remains a dark hole.
  There are exceptions. And average investors should stick to doing business in those areas. For example, the bond fund world is pretty transparent. It only takes a tiny bit of research to determine if there is a load (sales commission) on a fund. And it only takes another few seconds to determine if that load is something you’re willing to pay.
  Buying government debt is a low-risk activity as long as you deal with the government itself or some other reputable institution. Even buying new issues of corporate or muni debt isn’t all that bad.
  But the secondary market for individual bonds is no place for smaller investors. Things are better than they once were. The TRACE (Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine) system has done wonders to provide individual bond investors with the information they need to make informed investing decisions.
  But you’d be hard-pressed to find any scrupulous financial advisor who would recommend that your average investor venture in to the secondary market on his own.
  
  
  http://bonds.about.com/od/bonds101/a/bondrisk.htm

Markets a challenge for investors

Lesley Parker
November 16, 2011



Danger zones ... with warning signs at every turn, fear is influencing investors' choices. Illustration: Nic Walker


After four major crises in the past decade, concerns are mounting over the best way to invest for retirement.

If you want an illustration of how difficult the environment has become for share investors, consider the fact that US stocks have now underperformed bonds not just in the short term but in the past 30 years, which is something they haven't done in any other 30-year period since the start of the American Civil War. That's right - since 1861.

The global chief investment officer for asset management and private banking at Credit Suisse, Stefan Keitel, who visited Australia this month, says that has placed a question mark against the equities culture in countries such as the US and Australia, which have a tradition of share ownership.

''In equity-friendly regions - as, for example, the US - people now have far more doubts whether they really should go for pure equity investing when it comes to retirement planning,'' the Zurich-based Keitel says.

''If you look back at the behaviour of US investors, their whole retirement was planned on equity investing. After having experienced four major crises over the last decade, now the doubts are rising if that's the right strategy.''

Australians have also had a love affair with equities. In 2004, 55 per cent of the population owned shares, according to the annual share ownership survey by the Australian Securities Exchange, putting them on a par with Americans. That rate slid to 36per cent amid the global financial crisis in 2008 but recovered to 43 per cent last year. This year's InvestSMART Funds Flow Survey, the online discount fund brokers owned by Fairfax Media, found that the huge volatility in global sharemarkets had indeed sent many local investors to the sidelines or into more conservative asset classes (see story below).

Asked whether the Wharton School study of the long-term return from shares versus bonds refuted portfolio theory that there's an ''equities risk premium'' - extra return for taking on a riskier asset - Keitel says the result is ''pretty interesting'' but not surprising.

''Especially the last 11 years have been anything but good for the equity investor, given the different crises scenarios we have already had,'' he says. ''[But] what has been now the result for the past 10, 11 and maybe, on average, the last 30 years must not necessarily be the result for the next 30 years.''

In other words, as Australian investors are reminded in every product disclosure statement, past performance is no predictor of future performance.

''We think the phase of outperformance of bonds against equities will definitely come to an end,'' Keitel says. ''It will not be a sharp trend reversal … equity markets will stay volatile but I think when you compare these two asset classes, given the valuations behind them, we think that equity markets are better underpinned.

''So portfolio theory will come back and also the risk premium will come back. But … it will take time - mean reversion always takes time.''

Keitel used the word fear to describe the attitude of some investors to equities these days, amid enormous volatility in sharemarkets as stock prices plummet at the first hint of bad news and soar in response to any reassurance.

''I think we are living in a more trading-oriented world and maybe the capital markets in general have become a bit more unserious, '' Keitel says.

Just as markets focused too much on the negative in July, August and September, they were perhaps too positive during the counter-rally, he says. That in turn preceded another slump as Greece prevaricated over its debt crisis.

''Investing disciplines are much more short-term oriented than they have been in the past,'' Keitel says, making markets more challenging places for smaller investors. ''It's getting more and more complex [for the ordinary investor] because the cycles are getting more and more short-lived,'' he says. ''That complexity, I think, is of course for many investor types not a good thing and, of course, also limits down the willingness to invest in these markets.''

But from Credit Suisse's point of view, that only means there's a strong need for guidance from advisers such as itself, he says. ''It's different if you're in a market cycle like 1982 to 2000, where everybody could make money without having any intellectual competence.''

Keitel expects ''the next weeks, months and years will be anything but boring. It will stay extremely challenging in the capital markets and it will also stay challenging when we talk about … the equities side.''

Key risks include below-trend economic growth - but not recession - in major nations, inflation in nations such as China and any escalation of the sovereign debt crisis.

On the positive side, there's what he calls ''the experience factor''. ''All central bankers and politicians now are pretty aware what contagion means,'' he says.

Markets have already priced in most of the apparent risks. Also, investors can't afford to stay in cash forever, especially with low or falling interest rates.

''So despite a broad bundle of risks, we also have a broad bundle of supporting elements,'' Keitel says.

What that means in practice depends on an investor's risk profile, he says.

People with long-term horizons might take setbacks as buying opportunities, while those with shorter-term horizons, who don't have time to recover from losses, could use rebound rallies to move more money to the sideline.

There's numbers in safety

Do Australian investors, like Americans, increasingly fear equities?

The annual InvestSMART Funds Flow Survey released last week found that sharemarket volatility has sent many Australian investors onto the sidelines or into more conservative asset classes in the past two years.

The survey of 1540 "self-directed" investors using the online discount fund broker's service found there was a 19 per cent decrease in share holdings between 2009 and this year but also a 35 per cent fall in cash holdings. Fixed interest was a significant benefactor (up 85 per cent), along with property holdings (up 37 per cent).

There was a 110 per cent increase on last year in the number of respondents who rated the current market as bearish.

Another indicator might be how much money is being kept in cash by self-managed super fund trustees.

Researcher Investment Trends, as part of its annual SMSF Investor Report, found that total cash held by SMSFs grew by $40 billion between the publication of its reports in May 2009 and this year, an increase of 54 per cent.

Key points


❏ US stocks have now underperformed bonds over the long term.


❏ Credit Suisse is expecting the ''equities premium'' to return, however.


❏ Continued market volatility is also scaring off some investors.


❏ Volatility is expected to remain for some time.


❏ Investment cycles are increasingly short-lived.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/markets-a-challenge-for-investors-20111115-1nfxs.html#ixzz1fzScbt46

'A great opportunity to buy equities will emerge'

'A great opportunity to buy equities will emerge'
Shares will stage "a very strong and sustained rally" if a solution is found to the debt crisis, according to a senior investment strategist.

Mr Scott said he doubted that the eurozone would survive in its current form Photo: Bloomberg News

By Richard Evans

3:55PM GMT 06 Dec 2011

25 Comments

Even a break-up of the eurozone would provide a good opportunity to buy equities, said Ted Scott, the director of global strategy at F&C Investments.

"With each emergency summit proving to be more disappointing than the last, investors have lost faith in the eurozone policy-makers to provide a solution that will work," he wrote in a research note under the heading "A great opportunity to buy equities will emerge".

"This has contributed to a collapse in investor sentiment with fear the overriding emotion in today's markets."

But he added: "If a satisfactory solution for the debt crisis were to be found, the reversal in investor sentiment could contribute to a very strong and sustained rally."

Mr Scott said he doubted that the eurozone would survive in its current form, but that even a break-up of the bloc would be a positive "end-game" for investors.

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"I believe the end game is moving towards some form of break up in the Eurozone and this will be the catalyst that provides an attractive entry point for equity investors," he said. This was despite his assessment that "the risk of a second global recession and financial crisis, at least as bad as 2008, cannot be discounted".

He said the valuation for equities was "low from a historical perspective". "The dividend yield on most markets is high, especially against government bonds for AAA-rated countries. When dividends yield more than bonds it is traditionally a strong buy signal that has rewarded investors handsomely."


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8938388/A-great-opportunity-to-buy-equities-will-emerge.html

Why I'm with Warren Buffett on bonds versus equities

Follow the herd or follow Warren Buffett? That sounds like it should be a pretty simple choice for most investors given the average investor's consistent ability to buy and sell at the wrong time and the sage of Omaha's ranking as one of the world's richest men.

By Tom Stevenson 6:15PM BST 09 Oct 2010

Curious then that Mr Buffett is doing a passable imitation of Cassandra – she who was cursed so that she could foretell the future but no one would ever believe her.

Here's Buffett, speaking last week to Fortune magazine's Most Powerful Women Summit: "It's quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can't imagine anyone having bonds in their portfolio when they can have equities ... but people do because they lack the confidence."

And here's what everyone else is doing. According to Morgan Stanley, the speed of inflows to bond funds is even greater than retail inflows into equity funds at the height of the technology bubble in 2000 – $410bn (£256bn) in the 12 months to April 2010 in the US versus $340bn into equities in the year to September 2000.

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Over here, too, investors can't get enough fixed income. According to the Investment Management Association, net sales of global bonds and corporate bonds both exceeded £600m during August. Only absolute return funds were anywhere close to these inflows. The staple British equity fund sector, UK All Companies, saw £291m of redemptions and even the previously popular Asia ex-Japan sector raised a paltry £22m.

So, is this a bubble waiting to burst or a logical investment choice in a deflationary world where interest rates could stay lower for longer as governments adopt more desperate strategies to prevent another slump?

The case for bond prices staying high has received a boost in recent weeks as speculation has grown that the US government is contemplating a second round of quantitative easing. Printing yet more money to buy bonds creates a buyer of last resort and would underpin the price of Treasuries even at today's elevated levels.

Indeed, the talk on Wall Street has turned to a measure the US government has not employed since the Second World War when a target yield for government securities was set with the implied promise that the authorities would buy up whatever they needed to keep the cost of money low.

Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, referred to this policy in his famous "Helicopter Ben" speech of 2002 when he reminded financial markets of the US government's ultimate weapon in the fight against deflation – the printing press. It really is no wonder that the price of gold is on a tear.

For a few reasons, however, I'm not convinced that the theoretical possibility that interest rates could go yet lower à la Japan makes a good argument for buying bonds at today's levels.

First, to return to fund flows, extremes of buying have in the past been a very good contrarian indicator of future performance. Equity flows represented around 4pc of total assets in 2000 just as the bubble was bursting. At the same time, there were very significant outflows from bond funds just ahead of a strong bond market rally.

My second reason for caution is illustrated by the chart, which shows how little reward investors are receiving for lending money to the US government (and the UK, German or Japanese governments for that matter). Accepting this kind of yield makes sense only if you believe the US economy is fatally wounded and that the dragon of inflation has been slain. I don't believe in either thesis.

History shows very clearly that investing in bonds when the starting yield is this low has resulted in well-below-average returns if and when rates start to rise. Between 1941 and 1981, when interest rates last rose for an extended period, the total return from bonds was two and a half times lower when the starting point was a yield of under 3pc than when it started above this level. Investing when yields are low stacks the odds against you.

My final reason for caution is that there is no need to put all your eggs in the bond basket. Around a quarter of FTSE 100 shares are yielding more than 4pc while the income from gilts is less than 3pc. More income and the potential for it to rise over time too. I'm with Warren on this one.

tomrstevenson@fil.com

Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity Investment Managers. The views expressed are his own.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/tom-stevenson/8052896/Why-Im-with-Warren-Buffett-on-bonds-versus-equities.html

Earnings Yield: Bond versus Growth Stock

PE Ratio and Growth

It would be nice if looking at price, P/E, and earnings yield was all there is to it. Find an earnings yield of 6% (PE of 17), beat the bond, and move on.

But you're buying equities, not bonds, right?

• Because you want to participate in company growth and success.

And why do you want to do that?

• Because, simply, you want to leave that static bond yield in the dust - if not today, sometime in the near future.
• And you want to keep up with - or better yet, beat - inflation.
• So to do that, you assume some risk that earnings won't happen, but you are hanging your hat on growth and a stock price that keeps up with it.

Given these choices, what would you do?

• Buy a bond for $100; receive $5 per year for 10, 20, 30 years; never look back.

or

• Buy a stock for $100, earnings per share constant at $5 for 10, 20, or 30 years with no change.

Should have bought the bond. Why?

Less risk.


----


But suppose the $5 earnings "coupon" grows at 10% per year. What happens at the end of year 10?

If the price were to stay the same, your $100 investment would be returning $12.97 in year 10, which is almost 13% earnings yield, or an implied PE of 7.7 at today's price.

A pretty nice yield, which really means the price of your investment should go up, because it's worth more.

This spreadsheet shows future earnings yields realized in the case of a bond with no growth versus a stock with a 10% earnings growth.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AuRRzs61sKqRcjdfd19OVTZrVVRlTUJnb05naGo3TWc&hl=en

So you can see that assessing growth is a major factor in analysing a stock price through PE.

Above all else, earnings growth drives stock price growth.

So value investors look closely at what the earnings yield is today and what will it be in the future.