Always look at the risks before looking at the rewards in your long term investing

In investing, always look at the risks before looking at the rewards.

Understand the risks you are taking and then decide for the potential rewards you can hope to get, whether this reward/risk ratio makes business or investing sense.

Also, determine what is the likelihood of the reward appearing, its quantum and when.

Remember, "a bird in the hand today is worth two or more in the bush tomorrow."



How to look at risks in investing?

Back to the teaching of Warren Buffett's 4 tenets of his investing method.

1.  Understand the business.
2.  A business having durable competitive advantage.
3.  Managed by people with integrity.
4.  Available at fair price (margin of safety).

His tenets are very simple, and yet so few are following these.


If the business is too hard to understand, avoid investing into it.  You need to be able to understand the business.  What are the products or services it is selling?  Who are its customers?  How are its revenues generated?  Its profit margins?  Who are its competitors?  Only invest into a company you understand.  This is having business sense.

A company with durable competitive advantage enjoys certain unique advantages that allow it to compete in its competitive business environment.  The company may be selling a unique product or service, protected by patents or it enjoys a brand that people like for a long time.  Perhaps, the business is the lowest cost producer, or the cost of switching by its customers to another competitor is high.  Some businesses enjoy networking effect.  Avoid businesses with no durable competitive advantage.

People with integrity can be difficult to judge with certainty.  In general, a reputation build up slowly over 30 years can disappear over 5 minutes.  Anyone whom you have even a slight suspicion of his integrity, just avoid investing into that company.

When all the above 1, 2, and 3 tenets are met, you can then determine the price to buy and how much to buy?  You need to be patient.  The market is volatile and stock prices are volatile.  These market volatility and price volatility reflect the fluctuating sentiments of the investors and players in the market.  Don't time the market, always price the market.  You buy when the price is right.  Avoid when the price is obviously too high.  Invest when a great company is available at a fair price or even a slightly above fair price.  Be greedy and invest a lot, when a great company is available rarely at a huge bargain price.



Managing risks

The above few paragraphs explore how you will manage risks as applied to each tenets of Buffett in your stock investing.  In a very general sense, risks can be managed in 4 ways:

1.  Avoid
2.  Retain or embrace
3.  Reduce
4.  Transfer.

Whenever you are prospecting a new stock, you will need to determine that this stock meets the 4 business tenets of Buffett.  At each stage, you should avoid this stock altogether if you determined its risk is too high.

• Note that not able to understand the company's business is high risk too and you will need to avoid investing into it.  
• Not able to determine what confers to it its long term durable competitive advantage, is also another investing risk that should be avoided or perhaps embraced sometimes, but you need to have a very good reason.  
• Of course, avoid counters managed by people whose integrity you doubt.  
• Not able to value the business either because it is too complex to understand or its accounting is too difficult to fathom, you are better to avoid investing into this company.

Eventually, you are left with those stocks which you understand very well.

• QUALITY OF THE COMPANY (QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT):  You understand their businesses, their durable competitive advantages and their management.  
• VALUATION OF THE COMPANY (QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT):  And, you too understand how to value them and this gives you an advantage to buy and own them at a reasonable, fair or good prices.  

Every stock you own has gone through this thorough risk analysis and also the reward potential analysis.  For the stocks you have in your long term portfolio, you have retain and embrace the risks associated with investing in them and also have a very clear idea of their reward potentials.  You know their risk/reward ratios over the long term and the probability of their investing returning  predictable positive returns (driven by the durable competitive advantage possessed by these companies).

When the stocks in your portfolio are priced too high during certain market situations, you may, if you wish to, also reduce the risks or transfer the risks using various strategies.


Through managing your risks, you avoid losses or minimise your losses and the modest positive returns from the other stocks in your portfolio will translate into reasonable returns.

Investing is fun and profitable in the long run.

Good luck to all.

The Disadvantages of Stock Ownership

There are some disadvantages of common stock ownership.

1.  Risk

Risk is perhaps the most significant.

Stocks are subject to various types of risk, including:

• business and financial risk,
• purchasing power risk,
• market risk and 
• event risk.

All of these can adversely affect 

• a stock's earnings and dividends, 
• its price appreciation and 
• of course, the rate of return that you earn.

Even the best of stocks possess elements of risk that are difficult to eliminate because company earnings are subject to many factors, including:

• government control and regulation,
• foreign competition and
• the state of the economy.

Because such factors affect sales and profits, they also affect stock prices and (to a lesser degree) dividend payments.

2. Price & Returns Volatility

All of this leads to another disadvantage: stock returns are highly volatile and very hard to predict, so it is difficult to consistently select top performers.

The stock selection process is complex because so many elements affect how a company will perform.

In addition, the price of a company's stock today reflects investors' expectations about how the company will perform.

In other words, identifying a stock that will earn high returns requires that you not only identify a company that will exhibit strong future financial performance (in terms of sales and earnings) but also that you can spot that opportunity before other investors do and bid up the stock price.

3. Current income

A final disadvantage is that stocks generally distribute less current income than some other investments.

Several types of investments - bond, for instance - pay more current income and do so with much greater certainty.

Comparing the dividend yield on common stocks with the coupon yield on high grade corporate bonds from 1976 to 2012,  shows the degree of sacrifice common stock investors make in terms of current income.

Clearly, even though the yield gap has narrowed a great deal in the past few years, common stocks still have a long way to go before they catch up with the current income levels available from bonds an most other types of fixed-income securities.

Message:  

In other words, identifying a stock that will earn high returns requires that:

• you not only identify a company that will exhibit strong future financial performance (in terms of sales and earnings) 
• but also that you can spot that opportunity before other investors do and bid up the stock price.

Are Earnings Coming Back to Earth?

By Jeremy Glaser

Morningstar – Sun, Oct 21, 2012

Corporate earnings have long been a bright spot during this recovery. Even when everything else in the economy looked bleak, corporations seem to keep delivering better-than-expected news quarter after quarter. But is that turning around? So far in this third-quarter earnings season, we've seen disappointing top-line numbers that could be a sign that the momentum in corporate earnings might be beginning to slow.

All things considered, most large firms handled the great recession fairly well. Faced with collapsing sales and an uncertain future, most managers became very defensive. They cut staffing to the bone, shut down unprofitable divisions, paid off debt, and raised additional capital if needed. These moves not only helped keep the lights on during the worst of the downturn, but they positioned firms well for the upturn. As the economy slowly began to come back, the leaner and more efficient companies were able to consistently boost their margins and surprise investors, even when revenue growth remained anemic. The charts below show just how high corporate profits have reached, and how profits have hit an all-time high as a percentage of gross domestic product. Shaded areas on these charts represent U.S. recessions.

US Corporate Profits After Tax data by YCharts

US Corporate Profits After Tax as % of GDP data by YCharts

But high levels of profitability can't go on forever. Eventually firms are going to have to hire more workers, invest in equipment, and face new competitors. Many (including GMO and others) have predicted that margins are due for a mean reversion and that regardless of the strength of the recovery, corporations are going to get squeezed. It's hard to extrapolate too much from the earnings we've seen during the last two weeks, but that squeeze could be starting.

Squeeze Play
To be sure, earnings have not been a disaster so far. According to data from FactSet, of the 98 members of the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 70% have exceeded analyst expectations. But of those 98 firms, only 42% have beaten estimates for sales. During the last four years, an average of 59% of firms had beaten revenue estimates at this point in the reporting cycle. Some of those current misses are being driven by unrealistically high expectations and very strong currency headwinds, but some firms are starting to show signs of weakness. Given that most firms have already cut about as much as they can from their organizations, the drop in sales is likely to eventually lead to a drop in profit as it will be harder to cut deeper to keep profit growing.

One of the highest-profile misses this past week was Google(GOOG), which surprised the market not only with a premature earnings release but also with disappointing results. Revenues were below expectations, and operating costs rose quickly as the firm spent money to launch a new tablet and invest elsewhere in the business. Morningstar analyst Rick Summer thinks that as the firm continues to shift its revenue stream away from ads hosted on its sites toward ads on partner sites, content, and hardware it will become even hard to "gain operating leverage from the business" and increase margins at all. Google was hardly the only tech firm that reported a rough quarter. Microsoft(MSFT) and Intel(INTC) are feeling the impact of slowing PC sales ahead of the Windows 8 launch. International Business Machines(IBM) missed expectations as its revenues declined 5% (partially because of currency headwinds) as the firm launched its mainframe refresh.

Beyond tech, earnings misses could be found in plenty of other sectors. Sales at
McDonald's(MCD) and Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG) both fell short of expectations. Profitability at the oil-services firms took a big hit this quarter, and
pressure pumping remained challenged. Baker Hughes(BHI) reported a North American margin of 10.5%, a nearly 300-basis-point sequential decline. This is more than Schlumberger's(SLB) 230-basis-point decline but less than
Halliburton's(HAL) 660-basis-point decline.

Sluggish global growth is causing some of these misses, and some are idiosyncratic based on product cycles or one-time issues. Certainly, some of the misses are driven by heightened expectations after such a long stretch of good earnings. But part of it is also that corporate earnings have reached very high levels, and firms are beginning to feel the force of mean reversion. The weak sales this quarter could be the canary in the coal mine that earnings are about to be pressured, too. Even if margins don't come all the way down to historical levels, the reduction in profitability could be a major headwind for investors in the coming years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-coming-back-earth-110000773.html

The Sources of Risk in Stock Investing

Total Risk = Unsystematic Risk + Systematic Risk

Unsystematic Risk (diversifiable)
Business Risk
Financial Risk

Systematic Risk (nondiversifiable)
Market Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Rate Risk
Purchasing Power Risk
Exchange Rate Risk

The Sources of Risk in Stock Investing

Total Risk = Unsystematic Risk + Systematic Risk

Unsystematic Risk (diversifiable)
Business Risk
Financial Risk

Systematic Risk (nondiversifiable)
Market Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Rate Risk
Purchasing Power Risk
Exchange Rate Risk

Corporate Finance - Business and Financial Risk

To further examine risk in the capital structure, two additional measures of risk found in capital budgeting:

1.Business risk
2.Financial risk

1.Business RiskA company's business risk is the risk of the firm's assets when no debt is used. Business risk is the risk inherent in the company's operations. As a result, there are many factors that can affect business risk: the more volatile these factors, the riskier the company. Some of those factors are as follows:

• Sales risk - Sales risk is affected by demand for the company's product as well as the price per unit of the product.
• Input-cost risk - Input-cost risk is the volatility of the inputs into a company's product as well as the company's ability to change pricing if input costs change.

As an example, let's compare a utility company with a retail apparel company. A utility company generally has more stability in earnings. The company has les risk in its business given its stable revenue stream. However, a retail apparel company has the potential for a bit more variability in its earnings. Since the sales of a retail apparel company are driven primarily by trends in the fashion industry, the business risk of a retail apparel company is much higher. Thus, a retail apparel company would have a lower optimal debt ratio so that investors feel comfortable with the company's ability to meet its responsibilities with the capital structure in both good times and bad.

2.Financial RiskA company's financial risk, however, takes into account a company's leverage. If a company has a high amount of leverage, the financial risk to stockholders is high - meaning if a company cannot cover its debt and enters bankruptcy, the risk to stockholders not getting satisfied monetarily is high.

Let's use the troubled airline industry as an example. The average leverage for the industry is quite high (for some airlines, over 100%) given the issues the industry has faced over the past few years. Given the high leverage of the industry, there is extreme financial risk that one or more of the airlines will face an imminent bankruptcy.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/corporate-finance/business-financial-risk.asp#ixzz1yewzbr6X

The 3 Types of Investment Risk

The 3 Types of Investment Risk
The Basics of Risk Management 
 By Joshua Kennon, About.com Guide

Smart investing includes risk management. For each stock, bond, mutual fund or other investment you purchase, there are three distinct risks you must guard against; they are business risk, valuation risk, and force of sale risk. In this article, we are going to examine each type and discover ways you can protect yourself from financial disaster.

Investment Risk #1: Business Risk

Business risk is, perhaps, the most familiar and easily understood. It is the potential for loss of value through competition, mismanagement, and financial insolvency. There are a number of industries that are predisposed to higher levels of business risk (think airlines, railroads, steel, etc).

The biggest defense against business risk is the presence of franchise value. Companies that possess franchise value are able to raise prices to adjust for increased labor, taxes or material costs. The stocks and bonds of commodity-type businessesdo not have this luxury and normally decline significantly when the economic environment turns south.

Investment Risk #2: Valuation Risk

Recently, I found a company I absolutely love (said company will remain nameless). The margins are excellent, growth is stellar, there is little or no debt on the balance sheet and the brand is expanding into a number of new markets. However, the business is trading at a price that is so far in excess of it's current and average earnings, I cannot possibly justify purchasing the stock.

Why? I'm not concerned about business risk. Instead, I am concerned about valuation risk. In order to justify the purchase of the stock at this sky-high price, I have to be absolutely certain that the future growth prospects will increase my earnings yield to a more attractive level than all of the other investments at my disposal.

The danger of investing in companies that appear overvalued is that there is normally little room for error. The business may indeed be wonderful, but if it experiences a significant sales decline in one quarter or does not open new locations as rapidly as it originally projected, the stock will decline significantly. This is a throw-back to our basic principle that an investor should never ask "Is company ABC a good investment"; instead, he should ask, "Is company ABC a good investment at this price."

Investment Risk #3: Force of Sale Risk

You've done everything right and found an excellent company that is selling far below what it is really worth, buying a good number of shares. It's January, and you plan on using the stock to pay your April tax bill.

By putting yourself in this position, you have bet onwhen your stock is going to appreciate. This is a financially fatal mistake. In the stock market, you can be relatively certain of what will happen, but not when. You have turned your basic advantage (the luxury of holding permanently and ignoring market quotations), into a disadvantage.

Consider the following: If you had purchased shares of great companies such as Coca-Cola, Berkshire Hathaway, Gillette and Washington Post at a decent price in 1987 yet had to sell the stock sometime later in the year, you would have been devastated by the crash that occurred in October. Your investment analysis may have been absolutely correct but because you imposed a time limit, you opened yourself up to a tremendous amount of risk.

Being forced to sell your investments is really something known as liquidity risk, which is important enough I wrote a separate article about it to help you understand why it poses such a threat to your net worth.

The Moral

There is always some degree present in every investment you purchase. At the same time, by avoiding or minimizing specific types of risk, you can keep temporary hiccups in the economy or financial markets from destroying your wealth.


http://beginnersinvest.about.com/cs/valueinvesting1/a/080103a.htm

Every Choice Comes with Risk

by Michele Cagan, CPA

In the investment world, you'll have to walk a delicate (and very personal) balance between risk and reward. The more uncertain the investment, the greater the risk that your investment won't perform as expected, or even that you'll lose your entire investment. Along with greater investment risk, though, comes an opportunity to earn greater investment returns. If you're uncomfortable with too much risk and seek to minimize it, your trade-off will be lower investment returns (which can be a form of risk in itself). Truthfully, you can't completely eliminate risk. If you don't take any risk at all, you won't be able to earn money through investing.

Investment risk is directly tied to market volatility — the fluctuations in the financial markets that happen constantly over time. The sources of this volatility are many: interest-rate changes, inflation, political consequences, and economic trends can all create combustible market conditions with the power to change a portfolio's performance results in a hurry. Ironically, this volatility, by its very nature, creates the opportunities for economic benefit in our own portfolios, and that is how risk impacts your investments and your investment strategy.

There are many different types of risk, and some are more complicated than others. The 7 risk classifications you'll learn about here are those you'll likely take into consideration as you begin to design your portfolio.

Stock Specific Risk

Any single stock carries a specific amount of risk for the investor. You can minimize this risk by making sure your portfolio is diversified. An investor dabbling in one or two stocks can see his investment wiped out; although it is still possible, the chances of that happening in a well-diversified portfolio are much more slender. (One example would be the event of an overall bear market, as was seen in the early 1990s.) By adding a component of trend analysis to your decision-making process and by keeping an eye on the big picture (global economics and politics, for example), you are better equipped to prevent the kinds of devastating losses that come with an unexpected sharp turn in the markets.

Risk of Passivity and Inflation Rate Risk

People who don't trust the financial markets and who feel more comfortable sticking their money in a bank savings account could end up with less than they expect; that's the heart of passivity risk, losing out on substantial earnings because you did nothing with your money. Since the interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with the rate of inflation, they decrease the purchasing power of your investment over time — even if they meet your core investing principle of avoiding risk. For this somewhat paradoxical reason, savings accounts may not always be your safest choice. You may want to consider investments with at least slightly higher returns (like inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury bonds) to help you combat inflation without giving up your sense of security.

A close relative of passivity risk, inflation risk is based upon the expectation of lower purchasing power of each dollar down the road. Typically, stocks are the best investment when you're interested in outpacing inflation, and money-market funds are the least effective in combating inflation.

Market Risk

Market risk is pretty much what it sounds like. Every time you invest money in the financial markets, even via a conservative money-market mutual fund, you're subjecting your money to the risk that the markets will decline or even crash. With market risk, uncertainty due to changes in the overall stock market is caused by global, political, social, or economic events and even by the mood of the investing public. Perhaps the biggest investment risk of all, though, is not subjecting your money to market risk. If you don't put your money to work in the stock market, you won't be able to benefit from the stock market's growth over the years.

Credit Risk

Usually associated with bond investments, credit risk is the possibility that a company, agency, or municipality might not be able to make interest or principal payments on its notes or bonds. The greatest risk of default usually lies with corporate debt: Companies go out of business all the time. On the flip side, there's virtually no credit risk associated with U.S. Treasury-related securities, because they're backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. To measure the financial health of bonds, credit rating agencies like Moody's and Standard & Poor's assign them investment grades. Bonds with an A rating are considered solid, while C-rated bonds are considered unstable.

Currency Risk

Although most commonly considered in international or emerging-market investing, currency risk can occur in any market at any time. This risk comes about due to currency fluctuations affecting the value of foreign investments or profits, or the holdings of U.S. companies with interests overseas. Currency risk necessarily increases in times of geopolitical instability, like those caused by the global threat of terrorism or war.

Interest Rate Risk

When bond interest rates rise, the price of the bonds falls (and vice versa). Fluctuating interest rates have a significant impact on stocks and bonds. Typically, the longer the maturity of the bond, the larger the impact of interest rate risk. But long-term bonds normally pay out higher yields to compensate for the greater risk.

Economic Risk

When the economy slows, corporate profits — and thus stocks — could be hurt. For example, political instability in the Middle East makes investing there a dicey deal at best. This is true even though much of the region is flush with oil, arguably the commodity in greatest demand all over the planet.

http://www.netplaces.com/investing/designing-your-personal-portfolio/every-choice-comes-with-risk.htm

Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk

Key Points about Risks

Risk unequivocally exist in investing in any stock  ...

... but important to distinguish between volatility in stock price and business risk ...

... and my point is that none are large or imminent enough to explain why shares are so cheap.

Managing Risk - Some Simple Rules

Managing Risk

Investors can manage their risk in picking individual stocks by following some simple rules:

•  Require that the company have at least five years of financial history. Younger firms haven’t developed enough of a track record for assessing management performance.
•  Study only companies that have proven they can make money. Someone who invests in a company that has never reported earnings is speculating, not investing.
•  Understand the possible risk and reward of owning a stock.
•  Diversify your portfolio. Even if you’ve done your homework on every holding using all the information you need to make an informed decision, you’ll still make mistakes. If you have a good-size basket of stocks, however, you’ll also have some stocks that perform much better than expected.
 
Besides investing in high-quality growth stocks and diversifying your portfolio, two other simple principles can help you build wealth over the long term. 

• First, reinvest all your dividends and earnings. 
• Second, invest regularly in both good markets and bad; this is often called dollar-cost averaging.

 
The type of analysis outlined provides a lot of the information fundamental investors need to determine whether a stock is a suitable investment. But not everything. Reading annual reports, listening to conference calls and viewing company presentations will help you form a fuller picture of the company.
    
In today’s unpredictable, volatile market, fundamental analysis is even more important than usual. But for an investor using a simple, straightforward methodology that focuses on the long term, these are also times of great opportunity.

Warren Buffett - There is Only One Type of Investment Risk

Risk versus Returns

The Risk is Not in The Car; It is the Driver Behind The Wheel.

It would be a risky situation if a person decides to drive a car without having undergone any form of training.  It is the person's lack of knowledge and skill that makes the situation risky and not the car.

Similarly, if someone wants to invest (or trade) in a particular instrument but has not undergone any form of training, this person would be assuming a higher risk, and it has nothing to do with the instrument.  It is often the lack of knowledge and skill that makes investing (and trading) risky and not the instrument itself.


What is risk in the context of investing?

Risk is a quantifiable entity.
People associate risk with uncertainty in outcome or expected return.  A fixed deposit gives an expected return that is certain but not stocks.
People associate risk with volatility.  Yes, this too can be risky for those who do not understand volatility and who fall folly to it, rather than taking advantage of it.


Risk in investing is thus generally defined as:  


"The quantifiable likelihood (probability) of loss or less-than-expected returns."  
The keyword here is uncertainty in outcome or expected returns.

How to be a good investor?

To be a good investor (and trader), one must first seek knowledge about the instrument that one is going to invest in (or to trade).  It is similar to taking on a new job.

• First, you must learn what your new role is all about, what kind of tools are there to help you in your everyday routines, what are the skill sets needed to perform your new job properly, etc.  
• After that, once you have acquired the knowledge and learnt the skills required, you still need a period of constant practice to apply your newly acquired knowledge and hone your new skills.  
• It is only after having practised for a sustained period of time before one is able to get the "feel" of the job and perhaps do it with ease and confidence.

Risk comes from NOT knowing what you are doing.
Enter at your own risk.

Don't be afraid of risk. Learn how to manage it.

Don't be afraid of risk. You will face some kind of risk no matter what you do with your money. Fear of risk can sometimes paralyze your investing. You end up watching your money lose value solely because you missed investment opportunities and let the money sit in a safe savings account, earning less interest than the inflation rate.

The least you need to know:

1. Get to know the types of risks you face as  a value investor, but don't be afraid of them.
2. No investor can avoid risk, but you can learn how to manage it.
3. Time can heal many investment woes, as long as you have the patience to wait out an investment storm.

The Time Value of Money

"A bird in hand (today) is worth two in the bush (tomorrow)."

Everyone would rather have a dollar in his or her pocket today than to receive a dollar far into the future.  Today's dollar is worth more - that it has more value - than a dollar received tomorrow.

The three main reasons for this difference in value are:

1.  Inflation.
Inflation does reduce purchasing power (value) over time.  With a 5% per year inflation, a dollar received a year from today will only buy 95c worth of goods.

2.  Risk
There is always the chance that the promise of a dollar in the future will not be met and you will be out of luck.  The risk could be low with a CD at an FDIC insured bank; or the risk could be high if it is your brother-in-law who is promising to repay a personal loan.

3.  Opportunity Cost.
If you loan your dollar to someone else, you have lost the opportunity to use it yourself.  That opportunity has a value to you today that makes today's dollar worth more than tomorrow's.

These three concepts - inflation, risk, and opportunity cost - are the drivers of present value (PV) and future value (FV) calculations used in capital budgeting and investing.

Present value (PV) calculations are used in business to compare cash flows (cash spent and received) at different times in the future.  Converting cash flows into present values puts these different investments and returns onto a common basis and makes capital budgeting analysis more meaningful and useful in decision-making.

Nominal dollars are just the actual amount spent in dollars taken out of your wallet.  Real dollars are adjusted for inflation.  When you take out inflation (i.e. convert from 'nominal dollars' into 'real dollars') the price difference becomes much more comparable and easy to explain.

Capital Budgeting

In capital budgeting, different projects require different investment and will have different returns over time.  In order to compare projects "apples to apples" and "oranges to oranges" on a financial basis, we will need to convert their cash flows into a common and comparable form.  That common form is present value.

Simply put, a little bit of cash that is invested today followed by lots of cash returned in the near future would be a REALLY GOOD financial investment.  

However, lots of cash invested today followed by a little bit of cash returned in a long time would be a REALLY  BAD investment.

Capital budgeting analysis is as simple as that.

Risk and Uncertainty

Risk

What is risk?

In financial terms, risk is the probability of an investment's actual return being lower than expected.

Can we understand risk and take actions to lower it?

We now have the two elements necessary to start us on a path of business risk management.

How can we:

(1)  lower the potential downside of risk

and/or

(2)  lower the probability of occurrences?

Risk can be both

• intrinsic (within ourselves) and 
• extrinsic (from outside).  

If risk is the potential for a business loss, when may a business project be deemed a high risk?

A business project may be deemed a high risk because either:

(1)  there is a high likelihood of a loss of any size, 

or

(2)  there is even a very small likelihood of a large loss.  

Almost every business action carries some degree of risk.  High-risk actions require careful management because of their potential large negative consequences to the business.

Threat:  A threat is a potential event with a very low probability but a high negative impact.  

"Bet-your-company risk":  Avoid taking a "bet-your-company risk."  The potential negative consequences of such a risk are just too, too large.  For example, a bet-your-company risk would be spending all your available resources on developing a risky new product.  The company could fail if development were to be delayed or if sales were much lower than projected. 

However, entrepreneurial companies usually must face bet-your-company risks as they start up and grow.  Understanding and managing risk and uncertainty is especially important in these fledging enterprises.  Startups must be focused, innovative, responsive and also very lucky to survive.  Most often, they are not.

Uncertainty

"Uncertainty" is different from risk.  

Uncertainty is not knowing what the future will bring.  However, under the cloak of uncertainty, high risk can lurk.  Thus, lowering uncertainty can lower risks too.

Uncertainty can be more dangerous than risk.  Because we often know the elements of risks, we can plan for risk and take measures to mitigate the negative consequences of risk.  However, with uncertainty we are often flying blind.  It is hard to lower uncertainty if you do not know what it is and thus what to do to lower it.  

Quotes:  

"The consequences of our actions are so complicated, so diverse, that predicting the future is a very difficult business indeed."

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it."

"It's tough making predictions, especially about the future."

Related:
Risk and uncertainty in investing.  Investing is serious business.

Investing Money in Plain English (Video)

Buffett (1993): His views on real risk and how 'beta" fails to spot competitive strengths inherent in certain companies

Concentration over excessive diversification and the futility of using a stock's beta were the two key concepts that were discussed in Warren Buffett's 1993 letters to shareholders. However, the master does not stop here and, in the follow up paragraphs, puts forth his views on what is the real risk that an investor should evaluate and how the 'beta' as defined by the academicians fails to spot competitive strengths inherent in certain companies.

First up, the master explains what is the real risk that an investor should assess and goes on to suggest that the first thing that needs to be looked at is whether the aggregate after tax returns from an investment over the holding period keeps the purchasing power of the investor intact and gives him a modest rate of interest on that initial stake. He is of the opinion that though this risk cannot be measured with engineering precision, in a few cases it can be judged with a degree of accuracy. The master then lists out a few primary factors for evaluation. These would be:

• 
  
  The certainty with which the long-term economic characteristics of the business can be evaluated;

  ---

• 
  
  The certainty with which management can be evaluated, both as to its ability to realise the full potential of the business and to wisely employ its cash flows;

  ---

• 
  
  The certainty with which management can be counted on to channel the rewards from the business to the shareholders rather than to itself;

  ---

• 
  
  The purchase price of the business; and

  ---

• 
  
  The levels of taxation and inflation that will be experienced and that will determine the degree by which an investor's purchasing-power return is reduced from his gross return.

Indeed, the above qualitative parameters are not likely to go down well with analysts who are married to their spreadsheets and sophisticated models. But this in no way reduces their importance. These parameters, the master says, may go a long way in helping an investor see the risks inherent in certain investments without reference to complex equations or price histories.

Buffett further goes on to add that for a person who is brought up on the concept of beta will have difficulties in separating companies with strong competitive advantages from the ones with mundane businesses and this he believes is one of the most ridiculous things to do in stock investing. This is what he has to say in his own inimitable style.

"The competitive strengths of a Coke or Gillette are obvious to even the casual observer of business. Yet the beta of their stocks is similar to that of a great many run-of-the-mill companies who possess little or no competitive advantage. 

• Should we conclude from this similarity that the competitive strength of Coke and Gillette gains them nothing when business risk is being measured? 
• Or should we conclude that the risk in owning a piece of a company - its stock - is somehow divorced from the long-term risk inherent in its business operations? 

We believe neither conclusion makes sense and that equating beta with investment risk also makes no sense."

He further states, "The theoretician bred on beta has no mechanism for differentiating the risk inherent in, say, a single-product toy company-selling pet rocks or hula hoops from that of another toy company whose sole product is Monopoly or Barbie. But it is quite possible for ordinary investors to make such distinctions if they have a reasonable understanding of consumer behavior and the factors that create long-term competitive strength or weakness. Obviously, every investor will make mistakes. But by confining himself to a relatively few, easy-to-understand cases, a reasonably intelligent, informed and diligent person can judge investment risks with a useful degree of accuracy."

http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=1/17/2008&story=2

Risk in Stock Market – Stock Market Risk Management

Risk in the stock market is everywhere. Investing in the stock market is fraught with worry, for good reason. If you lose half of your investment, you must double your return to just breakeven. Warren Buffett, considered by many to be the world’s greatest investor, states his first rule of investing is “do not lose money.” Unfortunately, the risk in the stock market of losing your money is always a possibility. However, without taking some risk there is no reward. Therefore, successful investors employ stock market risk management strategies to minimize their losses. Managing risk in stock market starts with identifying the type of risk and taking action to mitigate the impact of the risk on your investment portfolio.

Risk in the stock market comes in many forms and each can lead to a loss. The most common is the overall trend of the market. Approximately 60 % of the move of an individual stock is attributed to the trend of the stock market. If the stock market is rising, it takes with it most of the other stocks, though not in equal amounts. When the stock market falls, stocks sink with it.

Another big risk in stock market lies with owning an individual stock. While owning the stock of a company can offer greater rewards, it also entails the risk that something might go wrong that can cut the price of the company’s shares in half. It might be news that sales have suddenly fallen due to a new competitor, or a product liability issue has arisen. For whatever the reason, individual stocks are subject to risk associated to them alone.

While there are other risks in the stock market, these encompass the vast majority of the ones you will encounter. Fortunately, investors can employ several strategies as a part of their stock market risk management program.

http://pediaworld.com/risk-in-stock-market-stock-market-risk-management/

The risk involved in equities

You can lose a lot of money investing in equities. 

That is why it is the asset class carrying the highest risk. 

If you had bought shares during the height of the Internet boom in March 2000, you would have lost 72% if you had sold them 18 months later!

Equities are affected by many risks, including:

• commercial risk, for example, interest rate changes and trade cycles
• political risk, for example, negative sentiment about Third World countries
• market risk, for example buying shares at the top (when they are too expensive) and selling them at the bottom (just before prices start to increase again).

Anyone who has invested in equities over the past few years knows how it feels to be on a roller-coaster ride. 

• In the end of the last century, investors witnessed huge stock market crashes (in 1987, and again in 1998), interspersed with a spectacular rise in share prices as investors started to become hyped-up about the new economy and Internet stocks. 
• Then, of course, a major downswing was experienced in September 2001 after terrorist attack in the USA. 
• Due to low interest environment for many years following 911, the US stock market crashed in 2008 due to the subprime credit crunch.