Capital Allocation by the Managers: Study their track record and their decision-making processes.

So you have bought a good company at a decent price.  You have completed the essential part of choosing your favourite stocks.

By definition, this company generates a lot of earnings and the managers have significant flexibility in terms of how they allocate this money, with a wide range off options available to them.  

It is important that the capacity to generate value through competitive advantages is also matched by an appropriate allocation of earned profit

Appropriate allocation of earned profit by the managers include:

1.  Shares buyback and cancellation of shares. #
2.  Dividends
3.  Investments in assets for growth.
4.  Acquisition of other companies to increase the company's competitive advantage.

The board should decide between these options based on the highest executed return and consequent value creation for the shareholder.

The only way you can get a fix on capital allocation is by studying the managers track record and the company's decision-making processes.  It comes down to both a quantitative and a qualitative analysis based on criteria, with experience being assigned a very high weight.

The greater the extent to which managers have shareholding interests, the more likely it is that their interest will be aligned with minority shareholders, but this step shouldn't be overlooked in any case.


# (The shareholders should ask of the management board that they give consideration to repurchasing and cancelling shares.  When you invested into the shares, you obviously believe the shares to be undervalued and this means that a cancellation would create value.  The management need not have to do it but this should be on their list.)

The company's growth plans: Your approach as an investor.

Good growth is exciting for any company that you own.

Growth can be through organic growth or through mergers and acquisitions.

However, as an investor, you should assign little importance to growth plans of the company in your investing decision.

It is far more important the company sets out the right strategy, since growth will follow in due course.

Many short-term growth targets get in the way of taking the right long-term decisions.

As an investor, you should be willing to ride out patchy results, considering this to be part and parcel of business.

On mergers and acquisitions, the investors should have a very clear stance: it is important to avoid the urge to grow for growth's sake; the focus should be on acquisitions that make sense and not overpaying.  It is important to avoid watering down a quality business with inferior acquisitions.

Boosting Berkshire Hathaway Profits: Through organic growth and through purchasing some large operations.

-  I also included two tables last year that set forth the key quantitative ingredients that will help you estimate our per-share intrinsic value. I won’t repeat the full discussion here; you can find it reproduced on pages 99-100. To update the tables shown there, our per-share investments in 2011 increased 4% to $98,366, and
our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 18% to $6,990 per share.

Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our primary focus is on building operating earnings. Over time, the businesses we currently own should increase their aggregate earnings, and we hope also to purchase some large operations that will give us a further boost. We now have eight subsidiaries that would each be included in the Fortune 500 were they stand-alone companies. That leaves only 492 to go. My task is clear, and I’m on the prowl.


Comment:  In managing Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's primary focus in on building operating earnings.  He expects his existing companies can increase their aggregate earnings.  He hopes to boost these earnings further through purchasing some large operations.

The objective of fundamental analysis is to determine a company's intrinsic value or its growth prospects.

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis is the study of the various factors that affect a company's earnings and dividends.  Fundamental analysis studies the relationship between a company's share price and the various elements of its financial position and performance.

Fundamental analysis also involves a detailed examination of the company's competitors, the industry or sector it is a member of and the broader economy.

Fundamental analysis is forward looking even though the data used is by and large historical.  The objective of fundamental analysis is to determine a company's intrinsic value or its growth prospects.  This intrinsic value can be compared to the current value of the company as measured by the share price.  If the shares are trading at less than the intrinsic value then the shares may be seen as good value.

Many people use fundamental analysis to select a company to invest in, and technical analysis to help make their buy and sell decisions.

Factors affecting future earnings prospects of a company:

1. Change in senior management
2. New efficiency measures
3. Product innovations
4. Acquisition of another business
5. Industrial action

Analysing individual companies

The analysis of an individual company has two components:

-  The 'story' - what the company does, what its outlook is
-  The 'numbers' - the financials of the company, balance sheet and income statement and ratio analysis.

Unfortunately, balance sheet and ratio analysis is probably the most daunting part of fundamental analysis for non-professional investors.  A large number of numerical techniques appear to be used.  However, you can make it less painful by adopting a methodical approach and by always remembering that behind all the numbers is a real business run by real people producing real goods and services, this is the part we call "the story".

It is unlikely that you will need to do the number crunching for every company, your time will be more profitably spent developing the company story.  Balance sheets and ratio analysis, both historical and forecast, can be obtained from either a full service or discount stockbroker.


What are you trying to learn about a company?

Before trying to leap into the calculations behind fundamental analysis there are some basic questions that are worth considering as a starting point:

1. Where is the growth in the company coming from?
2. Is the growth being achieved organically or through acquisition?
3. Is turnover keeping pace with the sector and with competitors?
4. What about the profit margin - is it growing?  Is it too high compared to competitors?  If it is too high then new competitors could enter on price reducing margins.  Low earnings could suggest control of the cost base has been lost or factors outside the company's control are squeezing margins.
5. To what extent do profits reflect one-off events?
6. Will profits be sustainable over the long term?

Companies are multidimensional.  For example, debt funding may have increased - this may be a positive move if the funds produce new productive assets.



Fundamental analysis (Summary)

When you buy shares you are becoming a part owner in that business.

To make an informed decision if you want to be an owner in that business, it is important to understand how that company operates and what its prospects are.

To understand a company, you can read its annual report which is one of the most important publications it releases to the market.

Analysing an annual report gives you the ability to build a good picture of how that business has performed over the past 12 months and what its prospects might be for the future.

To compare the annual reports and prospects of different companies, there are commonly used financial ratios, these include dividend per share, dividend yield, PE ratio and earnings per share.



http://www.asx.com.au/courses/shares/course_10/index.html?shares_course_10

Recession-proof fashion retailers do better than others during a bear market

Recession-proof fashion retailers do better than others during a bear market
Written by Lim Siew May of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 06 December 2011 09:43


KUALA LUMPUR: In Malaysia, only three home-grown fashion brands — Padini Holdings Bhd, Bonia Corp Bhd and Voir Holdings Bhd — are listed on Bursa Malaysia, but they have been surprisingly resilient. Each remained profitable during the 2008 financial crisis.

Padini Holdings Bhd, which is widely covered by analysts, was the first retailer to list, doing so in 1998. It retails fashionwear and accessories through its brands — Seed, Vincci, P&Co, PDI, Padini Authentics Miki and Padini.

In early November, it boasted the highest market capitalisation [among the three] of RM657.91 million, and profits have been growing consistently y-o-y from 2001 to 2010. It has consistently paid out dividends of at least 30% of its net income, and for FY2011, it is expected to distribute RM26.3 million (34.7%) out of its net profit of RM75.7 million.


The market capitalisation of Bonia Corp Bhd, which retails branded leatherwear, footwear as well as men’s apparel and accessories, is about half of Padini’s at RM328.56 million. It made a net profit of RM33.55 million for FY2010. The company owns the Bonia, Sembonia and Carlo Rino brands and the licence for international labels including Santa Barbara Polo and Valentino Rudy.


Voir Holdings Bhd has the smallest market capitalisation of RM60.60 million. The company owns brands such as VOIR, Applemints and SODA as well as licensed international brand Diadora. Besides selling women’s apparel, shoes and accessories, the company also designs and sells clothes for men and children. It made a net profit of RM7.7 million for FY2010.


Compared with luxury fashion houses listed in Hong Kong, local fashion stocks are much cheaper. The three companies are trading at price-earning ratios (PERs) of between 8.42 times and 8.75 times. In comparison, Italian luxury brand Prada SpA, which listed in Hong Kong in June, is trading at 28 times.

Recession-proof?


The possibility of a double-dip recession for the global economy is certainly alarming but the stock market will offer great bargains. Certain resilient industries do better than others during a bear market.

There are two opposing schools of thought on the prospects of non-utilitarian stocks such as fashion during a recession. On one hand, branded wear can be seen as luxury, not a basic need, which is eliminated from a tightened budget.

The opposing view is that people tend to seek an escape from hard times and are more likely to indulge in shopping. The latter helps to explain the resilience of Padini, Voir and Bonia during the last financial crisis.


An analyst, who requests anonymity, is sanguine about the local fashion stocks. “Malaysians love sales. Fashion companies can spur customer spending via sales and promotions, even though they do incur marketing costs. I believe that our middle-class fashion range will fare better than high-end fashion stocks in Hong Kong, given their affordability.”


A consumer-sector analyst, however, is cautious: “Fashion is not a staple. I believe the sector will be affected by the current conditions in the global economy. People will hold back during uncertain times.”
Here are ways to evaluate a solid fashion stock, regardless of whether we will see a global.

Branding counts


Branding is said to be the most important component of a fashion retailer. “Everyone has heard of Padini. It is available at almost every retail outlets across the Klang Valley, and people usually prefer to stick to an established brand,” says the first analyst.

“Padini offers a wide range of products for various market segments, and they are affordably priced. When a fresh graduate needs to buy working clothes, he buys from Padini instead of foreign fashion brands such as Zara, which costs 50% more.”


Is the company actively growing its brand? This is reflected by mergers and acquisitions as well as decisions to spend 2% to 3% of its revenue on marketing initiatives and/or aggressive openings of more outlets. “Organic growth will not result in a premium valuation for fashion stocks,” says the analyst.


A HwangDBS Vickers Research report indicates that there is a correlation between a newly opened store and the company’s revenue stream. For instance, when Padini expanded its retail space by more than 50%, or 143,955 sq ft, in 2008.

Padini is setting its sights on rural areas like Sabah, where there is enhanced purchasing power. The group has started selling its affordably priced garments in the Brands Outlet in Suria Sabah in Kota Kinabalu, 1st Avenue Mall in Penang, as well as 1Borneo Shopping Mall and 1 Multi-Concept Store in Sabah.

“Residents don’t really have access to swanky and established malls. I believe Padini should perform relatively well there,” says the analyst. Brands Outlet, a Padini standalone store, has been instrumental in driving the company’s revenue growth, contributing a compounded annual growth rate of 85% since its debut in 2007, says the HwangDBS Vickers Research report.


Starting a standalone store is also a good move for the fashion company. “When you move beyond [renting space in a department store], you will have more space and better control over your operations. And if your brand is the anchor tenant, you can probably negotiate for favourable rental terms,” says the consumer-sector analyst.

Increasing same-store sales


Same-store sales are used in the retail industry to reflect the difference in revenue generated by the retail chain’s existing outlets over a certain period of time. This statistic differentiates between sales generated from new stores and those from existing stores.

“This metric shows the organic growth of a store. New outlets usually reach their peaks after three or four years, then you won’t see fantastic double-digit growth,” says the analyst.

Growth of same-store sales reflects the management’s acumen in predicting fashion trends while the reverse signifies inaccurate expectations or a saturated market.


Unfortunately, growth figures are not readily accessible to retail investors, although analyst’s reports or news reports may feature them. To compensate, evaluate the company’s financial performance.

“It all boils down to the company’s ability to give its customers what they want. Look at the big picture. You can assess its ability to meet customers’ demand through the sales figures in the financial statements. You can also go to the stores and observe the foot traffic,” suggests the analyst.



Expect months of lower sales. According to HwangDBS Vickers Research’s report, Padini sees lower sales during non-festive seasons, such as in 2Q2011. However, the report explains that this is a common characteristic of the retail industry.

Stocks and threats



Holding a high volume of inventory for a long time is not a good sign for a fashion retailer. Inventory takes up storage space and affects liquidity. High inventory may also compel a company to significantly mark down its out-of-season stocks, leading to compressed margins.


To cater for festive celebrations such as Christmas and Chinese New Year, there will be a surge in inventory, the analyst says. “The inventory volume depends heavily on the management’s view. If it takes a sanguine view of the economy, it will increase stocks accordingly.



“However, if a great deal of the inventory in December does not translate into sales by March or April, it can mean a weak quarterly financial performance for the company.”



Rising raw-material (such as cotton) costs and the minimum wage hike in China are some of the key threats facing fashion retailers around the world. Gross margin, which measures the percentage of each ringgit of revenue retained as gross profit, is used to evaluate the management’s ability to manage cost.

The higher it is, the more the company is able to retain each ringgit of revenue to meet other business costs and obligations. A reduced gross margin can be a result of plunging revenue and/or increased business costs — all of which impact earnings.


http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-finance/197332-malaysians-love-shopping-so-recession-proof-fashion-retailers-do-better-than-others-during-a-bear-market.html

The Mark of a Good Business: High Returns on Capital

The Mark of a Good Business: High Returns on Capital
Written by Greg Speicher on October 19, 2010

Categories: Buy Good Businesses, Warren Buffett

“Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett, 1992 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter

A good business is one that can earn very high returns on capital. Rarely can such a business invest all of its capital back into the business. One way to find companies that can is to look for companies that have grown book value at a high rate on a per share basis.

A business can still be a good investment if it can’t reinvest all of its earnings back into the business. An example is American Express. Prior to the 2008 economic crisis, Amex was earning over 30% on equity but was only reinvesting about a third of its earnings back into the business. The remaining two-thirds were paid out in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

There are numerous ways to measure return on invested capital. None of them is perfect. Any of the various metrics and ratios investors use to analyze a business are abstractions and, as such, typically tend to oversimplify the economic reality of the business. They are short-cuts we use to point us in the right direction so we can spend our precious time researching businesses that offer the most opportunity.

Return on Incremental Equity

I like to look at the total amount of equity that has been added to a business over the past decade and then calculate the return on that additional investment. This approach also allows me to calculate what percentage of the company’s earnings was reinvested, which in turn is useful in forecasting the future growth in earnings.

I typically use Value Line when I do this because the layout is very conducive to this type of analysis. It is one reason why investors like Buffett, Munger and Li Lu like Value Line.

It is useful here to remember Buffett’s reminder that it is not necessarily a cause for celebration if a business grows its earnings year after year. The same thing happens to a savings account if you add more capital each year, which does not make a savings account a good investment. It’s the return on this additional capital that determines whether something is a good investment or not.

To illustrate, let’s look at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). In 2000, JNJ had shareholders’ equity of $18.8 billion. At the end of 2009, its shareholders’ equity had grown to $50.6 billion. We can calculate that, since 2000, JNJ invested $31.8 billion back into the business.

During that same time, earnings grew $8.1 billion, from $4.8 billion in 2000 to $12.9 billion in 2009.
By dividing the additional earnings of $8.1 billion by the additional $31.8 billion in capital, we can see that JNJ earned a return of 25.5% on its investment, which is very good.

It is also useful to look at what percentage of its total net earnings JNJ reinvested back into the business. The reason is that this is suggestive of how much of its future earnings JNJ is likely to reinvest. By multiplying the rate of reinvestment by the return on that investment, we can then calculate an expected growth rate for earnings.

Since 2000 through 2009, JNJ earned a total net profit of $89.7 billion. Since we already know that JNJ reinvested $31.8 billion over that same time period, we can calculate that JNJ’s rate of reinvestment is 35.5%.

If JNJ can continue to earn 25.5% on equity and reinvest 35.5% of its earnings, earnings should grow at about 9% (.255 x .355).

Keep in mind that this does not include dividends or share repurchases. The latter would cause earnings per share to grow at a faster rate. Also, it does not include an analysis of where JNJ is selling in relation to its intrinsic value which could have a material impact on the expected total return. Finally, this type of analysis works best with a stable business that enjoys durable competitive advantages, such as JNJ.

Another example is Southwest Airlines which is a successful airline that operates in the highly competitive and capital intensive airline industry. Between 2000 and 2009, Southwest’s shareholders’ equity increased by $2 billion. Earnings were $140 million in 2009 compared to $625 million in 2000 and have generally bobbed around over that time period. The return on that additional $2 billion has been relatively poor.

Calculating the return on incremental equity over a long-period of time should prove a useful tool in your analysis of prospective investments. Coupled with the rate of reinvestment, it can also allow you to get an idea of how fast a company can be expected to grow its earnings.


You can also use this approach to invert an expected rate of earnings growth to examine what combination of ROE and rate of reinvestment will be required to produce it.

In succeeding related posts, I’ll look at Buffett’s use of return on average tangible net worth and Greenblatt’s use of return on tangible capital employed to determine whether a business is good.

http://gregspeicher.com/?p=1660

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The Mark of a Good Business: High Returns on Capital (Part 2)
Written by Greg Speicher on October 26, 2010 -
Categories: Buy Good Businesses, Warren Buffett

“Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett 1992 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter

Last week, I wrote a post that looked at return on incremental equity. The post explained a way to measure return on incremental equity over a multi-year period. It also considered how, in a stable business with a durable competitive advantage, the return on incremental equity and can be used, in conjunction with the rate of reinvestment, to predict the growth in earnings.

Today, I am writing about another tool used by Buffett to measure the returns on an investment: return on average tangible net worth.

Beginning with the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Buffett began providing a simplified balance sheet of the manufacturing, service and retailing operations segment, a widely diversified group which includes building products, carpet, apparel, furniture, retail, flight training, fractional jet ownership and distribution.

Buffett breaks out the four broad segments of Berkshire – insurance, utilities, finance, and manufacturing, service and retailing operations – because they each have different economics which are harder to understand if considered as one undifferentiated mass. This is obviously useful to remember when analyzing a business with two or more disparate operating segments.

When he reports on the results of the manufacturing, service and retailing operations segment, Buffett focuses on the return earned on average tangible net worth, which for example in 2003, was in Buffett’s words “a hefty” 20.7%.

To calculate tangible net worth, take the equity on the balance sheet and subtract goodwill and other intangible assets. Buffett averages the tangible net worth that is on the books at the beginning and end of the year so as not to upwardly bias the return if the earnings were in part the result of a large injection of capital into the segment during the year.

On average, the segment enjoys very strong returns on average tangible net worth, typically in the low 20’s. This is highly meaningful because it not only shows the excellent economics of these businesses, but also it shows the returns that can be expected from additional capital that is invested into these businesses.

Here is the simplified balance sheet for the years since Buffett began providing it along with the calculations.
Here are some additional observations.

Buffett also provides the returns on Berkshire’s average carrying value. This is the same calculation as return on average tangible net worth without subtracting goodwill. Berkshire had to pay a substantial premium over book value to purchase these businesses given their excellent economics. Over the long-term, the return on incremental equity will be the major determinant of Berkshire’s returns on these investments as the retained earnings become an ever larger portion on the capital employed. As an investor, you want to pay close attention to both the premium you pay to buy a great business and the returns on incremental capital.

Omitting goodwill and intangible assets from the equation is appropriate because Berkshire will not need to pay a premium on incremental capital employed in the existing businesses. Berkshire does, however, need to pay a premium going forward to acquire businesses to add to this segment. This is evident from the goodwill and intangible assets line item which has grown from $8.4 billion in 2003 to $16.5 billion in 2009. Overall, to put that in context, Buffett invested an additional $15 billion in that segment over the same time period.
In analyzing an investment, you want to consider whether future growth will come from acquisitions, in which case you can expect additional goodwill, or organic investment, in which case the returns on tangible net worth would be a more appropriate metric.


Unfortunately, from the standpoint of providing opportunities for Berkshire to deploy capital going forward, some of Berkshire best businesses, which are found in this segment, are both small in scale as compared to Berkshire as a whole and require very little incremental capital.

Finally, it is fairly clear that this segment’s earning power has been materially impacted by the recession. If it is able to return to pre-recession levels, this group should earn net income of approximately $3 billion.

http://gregspeicher.com/?p=1708

Sales Growth. We seek to grow sales organically by building market share

Sales Growth. We seek to grow sales organically by building market share

What to look for: Growth

Important attributes to look for in an earnings statement - GROWTH

After all is said and done, the long-term growth of a stock price is driven by growth in the business.

Growth in the business means growth in the earnings - there is no other way to sustain business growth without infusions of additional owner capital.

Sure, you can acquire, merge, or sell more stocks to make a business larger by common definitions, but has the business really "grown"?

The value investor works to obtain a deep understanding of business growth, growth trends, and the quality of growth.

• Is reported growth based on internal core competencies?
• Or is it acquired or speculative growth based on unproven ventures?

The value investor assesses growth and growth patterns, judges the validity of growth reported, and attempts to project the future.

A business' ability to grow on its own, through its own success and resulting earnings, is known as organic growth.

Growth through acquisition or other capital infusions are not "organic" and thus does not suggest growth in true business value.

Good growth is profitable, organic, differentiated and sustainable.

Good growth is profitable, organic, differentiated and sustainable.

Profitable

Good growth is profitable.

It is also capital-efficient, that is, it needs to earn a return on its investment greater than what the company could have received by putting its money in something ultra-safe, such as a Treasury bill.

There is growth in revenues and steady improvement in profitability. Gross margin is an important indicator of a company's profitability and often not given the due it deserves.

Increasing gross margin and at the same time growing revenues at a rate better than the overall market is what makes for a great growth company. There is a direct relationship between improved productivity and profitable growth.

The improvement in gross margin also reflects the company's ability to innovate ahead of its competitors.

A company's rapid growth attracts the best managers in the industry - managers who are committed to growth.

Organic

Organic growth is the most efficient way to create revenue growth.

When people work with customers in the search for new ideas, translating those ideas into reality requires them to cut across silos and come together to make trade-offs and decisions in launching new products. It also builds the organization's self-confidence. Knowing that it has created a successful growth project makes it easier to tackle the next challenge, and the momentum feeds on itself.

Organic growth can also be based on filling an additional customer need and/or exploiting an organization's existing expertise in products, customer segments, or geographic regions, to capture new markets.

While good growth is PRIMARILY organic, there are times when it makes sense to supplement organic growth with smaller "bolt-on" acquisitions to fill strategic gaps, such as gaining a beachhead in a geographic region, obtaining a new technology, filling an adjacent need, or adding a new distribution channel.

Differentiated

No matter how "commoditized" your business is, good-growth companies find a way to differentiate themselves.

Winners in the quest for profitable growth pay attention to differentiation, however razor-thin.

To do that, they see things through the eyes of their customers and potential customers, detect what these buyers prefer, and hook the customer through products, services, and relationships that are better differentiated than those of the competition.

Dell offers a commodity: personal computers. Yet Dell differentiated its product line by making sure its product are reliable, low-priced, and customizable - that is, customers can design their PCs exactly the way they want.

Lexus truly differentiated itself in the post-purchase experience and in mechanical reliability.

Differentiation can also take place in the service that a manufacturer provides to retailers like Wal-Mart. By helping the customer increase its sales, the manufacturer has differentiated itself from being just another firm that the customer does business with.

Sustainable

Good growth continues over time. It has a sustainable trajectory.

It is not a quick spike upward in revenues, caused by cutting prices or by throwing substantial resources against a one-shot opportunity. The goal is to have the growth continue year after year.

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The only way this growth is going to occur is if everyone in the organization believes in it to be possible. It is up to the organization's leadership to create the right mind-set.

How to Tell Good Growth from Bad Growth

How to Tell Good Growth from Bad Growth

All top-line growth is not created equal. History has shown that most mergers and acquisitions do little to help the long-term health and revenue growth of an organization. Growth that uses capital inefficiently is not the way to go.

How can you tell good growth from bad?

How good growth builds value

Growth of any kind increases revenues. Good growth not only increases revenues but correspondingly improves profits and is sustainable over time. It is primarily organic (internally) generated from the ongoing operations and business of the company and is based on differentiated products and services that meet new or previously unmet consumer needs.

Good growth is thus growth that is profitable, organic, differentiated, and sustainable (PODS). Good growth builds shareholder value over time. In contrast, bad growth destroys shareholder value.

Mergers and acquisitions, a primary example of bad growth, are often based on myopic visions of synergy that have no basis in the reality fo the market place. Instead of 4 plus 4 equaling 10, as promised when the deals are announced, more often than not 4 plus 4 winds up equaling 5 or 6. It is true that a large number of mergers and mega-acquisitions result in one-shot cost synergies - usually cost savings from the elimination of duplication with the merged enterprise - but seldom in an improved rate of revenue growth that is sustainable for the long run.

Compared with growing through a string of major acquisitions, good growth offers better returns over time, is less risky, and saves companies from crippling high debt and cash crises such as those faced by Vivendi and AOL Time Warner.

Vivendi acquired (among other things) Universal Studios, Blizzard Entertainment, and Def Jam. The problem? Vivendi overpaid and used debt to pay for most of those high-priced acquisitions. While the companies it bought were making money, Vivendi as a whole plunged into the red, after taking into account the repayment of interest on the billions of dollars it borrowed. The financial condition of the company became so acute that many wondered if it would survive.

Of course, not all acquisitions are bad. There are times when scale (i.e., your overall size in relation to competitors) matters and it can be impossible to compete against industry giants without it.

Phillips and Conoco were both relatively small fish in the energy market. They were both growing but they were at a huge competitive disadvantage versus ExxonMobil or BP. The Conoco-Phillips merger in 2002 (the new company is called ConocoPhillips) took out costs, and the integration of the two companies has been extremely successful. They have built on each other's strengths.

Similarly, there are times when an industry goes through a consolidation wave. At those moments, you either get bigger or find yourself at a disadvantage.

But, overall, organic growth remains the way to go. It results in a better price-earnings ratio so that when an industry undergoes consolidation, this strength provides a company with the upper hand in making appropriate acquisitions against its competition. The end result is a company with additional scale and scope and greater credibility to go to the next level.

Growth

There is a huge difference between the business that grows and requires lots of capital to do so and the business that grows and doesn’t require capital. (Warren Buffett, 1994 Berkshire AGM)



Growth


When a company is said to be “growing its business” or simply “growing”, it means that the business is using its retained profits or new capital to expand its existing business or to acquire other ready-made businesses.




Organic growth: Growth is said to be organic when a company is using retained profits and debt to expand its existing operations.

The ability to increase market share or penetrate new markets without compromising profit margins indicates a healthy demand for the company’s products or services. Such businesses therefore normally make good long-term investments.




Growth by acquiring other businesses: Companies with limited potential to expand organically might grow externally by acquiring other businesses using existing resources or new capital.


If profitability or ROFE (return on funds employed) from a new acquisition is less than the ROFE in the existing business, the decline in overall profitability will reduce the per-share value.


Because capital-allocation decisions are the Achilles heel of most businesses, companies on the acquisition trail should be treated with caution.



Acquisitions that come at a price that is hard for seller to refuse, while increasing profit in absolute terms, frequently lead to diminished profitability and therefore loss of per-share value.