Deflation: Why falling prices in China raise concerns

Published

By Annabelle Liang & Nick Marsh

BBC News, Singapore

China's economy has slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.

The official consumer price index, a measure of inflation, fell by 0.3% last month from a year earlier.

Analysts said this increases pressure on the government to revive demand in the world's second largest economy.

This follows weak import and export data, which raised questions about the pace of China's post-pandemic recovery.

The country is also tackling ballooning local government debt and challenges in the housing market. Youth unemployment, which is at a record high, is also being closely watched as a record 11.58 million university graduates are expected to enter the Chinese job market this year.

Falling prices make it harder for China to lower its debt - and all the challenges which stem from that, such as a slower rate of growth, analysts said.

"There is no secret sauce that could be applied to lift inflation," says Daniel Murray from investment firm EFG Asset Management. He suggests a "simple mix of more government spending and lower taxes alongside easier monetary policy".

When did prices start falling?

Most developed countries saw a boom in consumer spending after pandemic restrictions ended. People who had saved money were suddenly able and willing to spend, while businesses struggled to keep up with the demand.

The huge increase in demand for goods that were limited in supply - coupled with rising energy costs after Russia's invasion of Ukraine - inflated prices.

But this is not what happened in China, where prices did not soar as the economy emerged from the world's tightest coronavirus rules. Consumer prices last fell in February 2021.

In fact, they have been at the cusp of deflation for months, flatlining earlier this year due to weak demand. The prices charged by China's manufacturers - known as factory gate prices - have also been falling.

"It is worrisome as far as it shows that demand in China is poor while the rest of the world is awakening, especially the West," Alicia Garcia-Herrero, an adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said.

"Deflation will not help China. Debt will become more heavy. All of this is not good news," she added.

Why is deflation a problem?

China produces a large proportion of the goods sold around the world.

A potential positive impact of an extended period of deflation in the country may be that it helps to curb rising prices in other parts of the world, including the UK.

However, if cut-price Chinese goods flood global markets it could have a negative impact on manufacturers in other countries. That could hit investment by businesses and squeeze employment.

A period of falling prices in China could also hit company profits and consumer spending. This may then lead to higher unemployment.

It could result in a fall in demand from the country - the world's largest marketplace - for energy, raw materials and food, which would hit global exports.

What does this mean for China's economy?

China's economy is already facing other hurdles. For one, it is recovering from the impact of the pandemic at a rate that is slower than expected.

On Tuesday, official figures showed that China's exports fell by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, while imports dropped 12.4%. The grim trade data reinforces concerns that the country's economic growth could slow further this year.

China is also dealing with an ongoing property market crisis after the near-collapse of its biggest real estate developer Evergrande.

The Chinese government has been sending the message that everything is under control, but has so far avoided any major measures to encourage economic growth.

Building confidence among investors and consumers will be key to China's recovery, Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University, said.

"The real issue is whether the government can get confidence back in the private sector, so households will go out and spend rather than save, and businesses will start investing, which it hasn't accomplished so far," Professor Prasad said.

"I think we're going to have to see some significant stimulus measures (including) tax cuts."

Additional reporting by BBC business reporter Peter Hoskins.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66435870

High inflation for consumer prices is almost always a threat to growth but deflation is not.

For the eight centuries beginning in 1210, the world's average annual inflation rate was only 1%, according to the Global Financial Database.  For  most of that period, however, the long-term 1% average concealed sharp swings between inflation and deflation.

In early 1930s, deflation disappeared, for reasons that remain mysterious but include the spread of the banking industry and the wider availability of credit, with consequently more money chasing the available goods.

The end of the gold standard in the 1970s made it easier for central banks to print money, which also tends to fuel inflation.

The result was that deflation disappeared completely on the global level, and bouts of deflation - particularly longer ones - became much less common within individual nations as well.  

Though deflation has largely vanished, worldwide, it continues to surface in isolated pockets.  

Japan is the only major country to have suffered a multiyear case of deflation in the postwar era, but many countries have suffered a single-year bout.  

Again, however, these periods did not have a consistent impact on growth, for better or worse.

No clear evidence that consumer price deflation is bad - or good- for economic growth.

In early 2015, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) looked at the postwar record for 38 countries.  In all, these countries had seen more than 100 years in which prices fell.  

• On average, GDP growth was higher by a statistically insignificant margin during deflationary years, at 3.2%, than during inflationary years, at 2.7%.   
• The cases in which deflation was accompanied by strong growth occurred from Thailand and China to the Netherlands and Japan.  

The BIS concluded there is no clear evidence that consumer price deflation is bad - or good- for economic growth.

High inflation for consumer prices is almost always a threat to growth but deflation is not.

How can you tell when consumer price deflation is the good kind, driven by growing supply, or the bad kind, driven by shrinking demand?  

This task requires parsing conflicting forces of supply and demand, often with unclear results.  

The takeaway is simply that while many analysts now assume that any hint of deflation is worrisome, this assumption is not borne out by the evidence.  

High inflation for consumer prices is almost always a threat to growth but deflation is not.

Understanding Real Inflation Threats

When may inflation be too high?

These are still very useful averages as benchmarks for judging when inflation may be too high:

• Any emerging nation with a rate of inflation much above 4%, or 
• any developed nation with a rate much above 2%.

Any country with high inflation has cause for concern.

High consumer price inflation is a growth-killing cancer.  

This still holds true.  

• In the short-term, rapidly rising prices compel central banks to raise interest rates, making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow.  High inflation also tends to be volatile, and its swings make it impossible for businesses to plan and invest for the future.   
• Over the longer term, inflation erodes the value of money sitting in the bank or in bonds, thus discouraging saving and shrinking the pool of money available to invest in future growth.

Actions of central banks post crisis of 2008

In the slow growth-environment that took hold after the crisis of 2008, central banks often worry that inflation may be too low, not too high.

In developed countries, instead of raising rates to make sure inflation doesn't increase to far above a target of 2%, they now cut interest rates when inflation is falling too far below 2%.  

Their big fear is that low inflation will lead to outright deflation - the dreaded but overblow "Japan scenario".

"Bad deflation" and "Good deflation"

History, in fact, shows that neither low inflation nor deflation are necessarily bad for economic growth.   

Japan suffered a rare bout of "bad deflation" after the collapse of its stock and housing bubbles in 1990.  Consumer demand dried up, prices started to fall and shoppers began delaying purchases in the expectation that prices would fall further.  The downward spiral depressed growth for 2 decades.  

However, deflation can also follow a new tech or financial innovation that lowers production costs and boosts economic growth.

If inflation is too high, it is almost always a threat to growth but the same cannot be said of low inflation.  Even if low inflation threatens to devolve into deflation, it could be good for growth if falling prices are driven by new innovation and expanding supply rather than by depressed demand.

Need to control inflation in both consumer markets and financial market

Perhaps, the deepest flaw in traditional thinking, however, is that it still focuses on the kind of inflation that has largely disappeared.   

• After the central banks won the war on high consumer price inflation, they cut interest rates to levels that have fueled a massive run-up in prices for financial assets, including stocks, bonds, and houses.  
• And in recent decades, as we have seen, stock market and housing bubbles have been increasingly common precursors to financial crisis and recessions. 

Traditional thinking fails to recognize the new inflation threat in the financial market

Economists have been very slow to recognize this new inflation threat, and central banks have been very slow to think outside their official mandates, which focus on stabilising the economy by controlling inflation in consumer prices only.  

But successful nations will control both kinds of inflation, in consumer markets and in financial market.

No subject in economics is more paralyzed by traditional thinking than inflation, a term that generally refers only to the pace of increase in consumer prices, a once ubiquitous threat that has largely vanished in recent decades.  

Central bankers and economists still tend to focus on consumer price inflation, even though it has largely disappeared and to ignore prices for assets like stocks, bonds and real estate, even though there is an increasingly clear link between real estate and stock market busts and economic downturns.

Inflation versus Deflation

Inflation and hyperinflation

By the time the popular Venezuelan government called for next economic measures to end rampant hyperinflation at the end of 2018, the local currency had become virtually worthless.

After 80,000% inflation over the previous year, it took more than 6 million bolivars to buy a loaf of bread - that is, if you could find a store that had a loaf of bread in stock.

After more than a decade of economic mismanagement, the financial meltdown has become so bad that by the late 2010s, clean water distribution had slowed to a trickle, and gravely sick citizens were dying in make-shift hospitals, unable to get the treatments that were keeping people alive in almost every other country in the world.

It is nearly impossible to index prices and salaries in the chaotic world of hyperinflation, and consequently, no one is left untouched by uncontrolled inflation. 

• From the top 1% to the poorest of the poor, an economy in crisis eventually hurts virtually everyone.  
• But it's the most vulnerable who suffer the most.  When the cost of a loaf of bread exceeded the total monthly minimum salary in Venezuela, those at the bottom of the economic ladder had to face the worst aspect of economic hardship:  starvation.  Millions ended up fleeing across the border as economic refugees to Colombia and Brazil.

Hyperinflation has ravaged countries as diverse as Germany, Mexico and Argentina - even China during the Yuan dynasty, where too much paper money in circulation led to uncontrolled inflation.  In Germany's postwar Weimar Republic, in 1923, inflation became so bad that the government had to resort to issuing postage stamps worth fifty billion marks and people had to use wheel barrows to carry enough cash to make simple household purchases.

Deflation

The economic crisis in Japan at the beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by severe deflation, where a chronic decline in prices led to decades of sluggish economic growth.

When deflation was accompanied by a sharp decline in consumers - with the total population in Japan expected to decline precipitously by 2050 - the crisis in Japan appeared to be just as intractable as the inflationary crises in Venezuela and other parts of the world.  

• In a country with persistent deflation, consumers will simply stop buying goods and services as prices decline expecting to get a better price at some point in the near future.  
• Likewise, companies also tend to delay investments in new plants and machinery when they think prices for their products will soon decline.  
• In deflationary environments, companies try to find ways to reduce input costs, often leading to a reduction in salaries.  The lower salaries then translate into even lower consumer spending, completing the vicious circle of deflationary economic crisis.

The solution is to change long term expectations

The problem with too much deflation, just like to much inflation, is that growth screeches to a halt because of the economic uncertainty both problems create.

In periods of crisis, however, central banks are often unable to change the perception in the minds of consumers and business-people that there will be no end to the vicious cycle of inexorably rising or declining prices.  

The solution for deflation, as for hyperinflation, essentially involves finding a way to change long-term expectations - not an easy task in an economy out of control.

Neither too hot nor too cold

Like the Three Bears' porridge, an economy should be neither too hot nor too cold.  

Neither acute inflation nor acute deflation are positive for sustainable economic health.

Despite the desire of some populist leaders to have a high inflation rate of 3 or even 4%, most economists recommend a "just right" inflation rate of about 2% per year.

Fighting excessive deflation once interest rates have been reduced to zero

Fighting excessive deflation is in some ways more difficult than fighting hyperinflation.

During inflationary times, there is basically no limit to how much central banks can raise interest rates.

But in the battle against deflation, once interest rates have been reduced to zero, there is little that central banks can do to stimulate further growth.  

The two things that can be done once interest rates reach zero are:

• negative interest rates or 
• quantitative easing.

The Real Inflation Threats

Inflation generally refers to the pace of increase in consumer prices.

1.  Historical inflation data

1970s

Consumer prices were rising at a double-digit pace and wreaking economic havoc all over the world.  

In early 1980s, they began to recede under pressure from rising global competition and a concerted attack by central banks.  

Raising interest rates to painful heights, central banks choked off money flows and won the war on inflation just about everywhere.

1981 to 1991

The average rate of inflation in developed nations fell from 12% to just 2%, where it remains today.

Meanwhile, in emerging nations, the average rate of inflation peaked at a staggering 87% in 1994 and reached the hyperinflationary triple digits in major countries like Brazil and Russia.  Then, over the subsequent decades, it receded to its current, much calmer rate of just 4%.

2.  Average inflation rates today

Any emerging nation with a rate of inflation much above 4% or any developed nation with a rate much above 2%, has cause for concern.  

In a world where double- and triple-digit consumer price inflation is a rare threat, the outliers are worth watching closely because they are out of balance and seriously at risk.

3.  Traditional thinking focuses on consumer price inflation only

High consumer price inflation is a growth-killing cancer

In the short term, 

• rapidly rising prices compel central banks to raise interest rates, 
• making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow.  
• High inflation also tends to be volatile, and its swings make it impossible for businesses to plan and invest for the future.

Over the longer term, 

• inflation erodes the value of money sitting in the bank or in bonds, thus discouraging saving and 
• shrinking the pool of money available to invest in future growth.

4.  Post crisis of 2008 slow-growth environment fears outright deflation

The central banks are now fighting a very different war.  

Central banks often worry that inflation may be too low, not too high in the slow-growth environment that took hold after the crisis of 2008.  

In developed countries, instead of raising rates to make sure inflation doesn't increase too far above a target of 2%, they now cut interest rates when inflation is falling too far below 2%.  

Their big fear is that low inflation will lead to outright deflation - the dreaded but overblown "Japan scenario."

5.  Low inflation and deflation can be bad (depressed demand) and can be good (driven by new innovation and expanding supply)

History, shows that neither low inflation nor deflation are necessarily bad for economic growth.

"Bad deflation"  

Japan suffered a rare bout of "bad deflation" after the collapse of its stock and housing bubbles in 1990.  

• Consumer demand dried up, prices started to fall and shoppers began delaying purchases in the expectation that prices would fall further.  
• The downward spiral depressed growth for two decades.  

"Good deflation"

However, deflation can also follow a new tech or financial innovation that 

• lowers production costs and 
• boosts economic growth.

High inflation is always bad for growth, deflation maybe neither bad nor good

If inflation is too high, it is almost always a threat to growth but the same cannot be said of low inflation.  

Even if low inflation threatens to devolve into deflation, it could be good for growth if the falling prices are driven by new innovations and expanding supply, rather than by depressed demand.

6.  Post 2008 low interest rates environment

After central banks won the war on high consumer price inflation, they cut interest rates to levels that have fueled a massive run-up in prices for 

• financial assets, including stocks, bonds and 
• houses.  

In recent decades, stock market and housing bubbles have been increasingly common precursors to financial crises and recessions.

7.  The Real Inflation Threats

Economists have been very slow to recognize this new inflation threat, and central banks have been very slow to think outside their official mandates, which focus on stabilizing the economy by controlling inflation in consumer prices, only.  

But successful nations will control both kinds of inflation, 

• in consumer markets and 
• in financial markets.

Conclusions

The general rule is that strong growth is most likely to continue 

• if consumer prices are rising slowly or 
• even if they are falling as the result of good deflation, driven by a strengthening supply network.

In today's globalised economy, cross-border competition tends to 

• suppress prices for consumer goods but 
• drive them up for financial assets (stocks, bonds and houses).  

Thus watching consumer prices is not enough.

Increasingly, recessions follow instability in the financial markets.  

To understand how inflation is likely to impact economic growth, you have to keep an eye on stock and house prices too.

Is Inflation Good for Stocks?

Conclusions:  

Back-tested data does not show any significant relationship between inflation rates and stock market returns.

Stock valuations may be negatively impacted by higher-than-normal inflation (due to increase in the risk-free rate which makes short-term Treasuries more attractive relative to equities).

Stocks may not be as good a "hedge" against inflation as the theoretical argument may suggest, this may be limited to SHORTER-TERM stock market movements.   

LONG-TERM investors in the stock market should take comfort in the fact that the S&P 500 has steadily outpaced inflation with an annualised real (inflation adjusted) return of 3% between 1871 and 2009.

 

Notes:

1.  Deflationary fears amidst weak economic growth have led to much liquidity being injected into the financial system by various central banks around the world.

2.  Motto:  "Deflation:  Making sure "it" doesn't happen here."

3.  Fundamentally, there appears to be a strong case for stocks to perform under inflationary conditions.  

• When raw material costs rise, companies can raise selling prices and pass on the increased costs to the consumer.  The goods and services produced by companies make up the composition of the CPI, and it is not unreasonable to expect selling prices to rise in tandem with the CPI.
• Also, companies hold real assets like property and land which can rise in nominal value over time.  Thus, investors in such companies should benefit over an inflationary period as the underlying assets increase in nominal value.

4.  The threats of deflation to economic prosperity are perhaps more obvious to investors who look to the beleaguered Japanese economy as a prime example.  

• An economy where consumers postpone spending as items become cheaper in the future is certainly not an ideal one, especially for stock investors whose companies suffer from declining revenue and shrinking asset values.

Back-Testing the S&P 500

Monthly historical inflation and stock market returns

1.  Inflation in the US has historically been represented by year-on-year changes in the CPI and this is reported on a monthly basis.  

2.  We looked at monthly stock market returns based on the S&P 500 and compared the historical stock market returns to different levels of inflation.

3.  The majority of monthly historical inflation data was below 4%, with a surprisingly huge number of periods where inflation was negative (14.4%).

4.  Instead of the expected poor returns in periods of deflation, the S&P 500 actually averaged a 1.1% monthly return where the CPI posted year-on-year declines.

5.  The best average monthly return was logged in months where inflation was between 7% and 8%, but this accounted for only 18 of the 1150 months, less than 2% of the data tested.

6.  On the other hand, inflation rates higher than 8% saw negative average monthly returns.

7.  Inflation between 1% and 4%, more moderate levels of inflation, saw an average return of 0.8%.

Extension of the study to annual inflation and stock market returns.

1.  A large proportion (61%) of the annual inflation rates fell between 0 and 5%.

2.  There appeared to be little correlation between high/low inflation rates and stock market returns.

3.  The high or low inflation rates resulted in both positive and negative stock market returns.

Theoretical Benefits of Inflation May Not be Reflected in Stock Returns

This evidently does not show up in back-tested data for the S&P 500, where our results indicate a lack of any observable correlation.

Why? 

1.  Both company specific and industry-specific factors can play a huge role in determining the ability of a company to raise prices.

2.   The uniqueness of a company's product or its extent of substitutability can determine whether the company is able to raise prices without hurting demand.  If there are many substitutes available, the company may be forced to keep prices low to remain competitive.

3.  Companies whose business models depend on being low-cost producers will find it difficult to do well in an environment where raw material prices rise without a corresponding increase in selling prices.

4.  In certain highly regulated industries like the utilities or fixed-line telecommunications sector, regulatory authorities may prevent companies from raising selling prices, resulting in a price ceiling which caps profits.  

5.  Ultimately, a higher input cost which cannot be passed on to the tend consumer means lower profit margins and smaller profits.

6.  Recognizing the inflationary pressures faced by companies, it would appear that the benefits of inflation (rising asset prices, higher nominal revenue and profits) may take a significant period of time to occur.

7.  Industry consolidation and technology breakthroughs may also take place to counter the short-term negative impact of inflation, with surviving companies reaping the benefits while others go out of business.

Impact of inflation on valuations

1.  Inflation between 2% and 3% saw a wider range of valuations over the past nine decades (1950s, 1960s, 1990s and 2000s).

2.  Valuations of the 1920s and 1930s are perhaps less meaningful, as they encompass the Great Depression where unprecedented corporate bankruptcies could have skewed market earnings and thus valuations.

3.  More noteworthy are the decades with higher average inflation (1940s, 1970s and 1980s) were met with lower valuations.  How can this anomaly be explained by the impact of inflation on valuation metrics for the stock market?    

-  Periods of high inflation are generally met with interest rate hikes (as a means to subdue inflationary pressure), which make short-term treasuries more attractive relative to equities.  

-  Inflation normally results in an increase in the risk-free rate, which raises the required return on equities.  

-  The resulting impact on the stock market lowered valuations.  

Deflation vs. Disinflation: What's the Difference

By STEVEN NICKOLAS
Updated Apr 19, 2019

Deflation vs. Disinflation: An Overview

Although they may sound the same, deflation should not be confused with disinflation.

Deflation is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy, while disinflation is what happens when price inflation slows down temporarily.

Deflation, which is the opposite of inflation, is mainly caused by shifts in supply and demand.

Disinflation, on the other hand, shows the rate of change of inflation over time. The inflation rate is declining over time, but it remains positive.


KEY TAKEAWAYS

Deflation is the drop in general price levels in an economy, while disinflation occurs when price inflation slows down temporarily.

Deflation, which is harmful to an economy, can be caused by a drop in

• the money supply, 
• government spending, 
• consumer spending, and 
• corporate investment.

Central banks will fight disinflation by

• expanding its monetary policy and 
• lowering interest rates.

Disinflation can be caused

• by a recession or 
• when a central bank tightens its monetary policy.

***************************************************

Deflation

Deflation is the economic term used to describe the drop in prices for goods and services.

Deflation slows down economic growth.

It normally takes place during times of economic uncertainty when there is demand for goods and services is lower, along with higher levels of unemployment.

When prices fall, the inflation rate drops below 0 percent.


Deflation (and inflation) rates can be calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). This index measures the changes in the price levels of a basket of goods and services. They can also be measured using the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, which measures the price inflation.

There are several different factors that can cause deflation, including a drop in the money supply, government spending, consumer spending, and investment by corporations.

Business productivity can also lead to a drop in prices.

• When a company uses more advanced technology in its production process, it may become more efficient, thereby reducing its costs. 
• These cost savings may then be passed on to the consumer resulting in lower prices.

Consider the case of mobile phones. Cellphone prices have dropped significantly since the 1980s due to technological advances. This has allowed supply to increase at a faster rate than the money supply or demand of cellphones.

But bonds can perform well during times of deflation.   More investors end up flocking to quality assets that promise a safer investment vehicle.

By contrast, it can have a negative effect on the stock market. A drop in prices—and, therefore, supply and demand—will hurt the profitability of companies, leading to the erosion of share value.

In order to deal with deflation, a central bank will step in and employ an expansionary monetary policy. 

• It lowers interest rates and increases the money supply within the economy. 
• This, in turn, boosts demand for goods and services. 
• Lower interest rates mean an increase in the spending power of consumers. 
• More spending means price inflation and, therefore, higher demand for goods and services. 
• Higher prices lead to higher profits for businesses.

Disinflation

Disinflation occurs when price inflation slows down temporarily. 

This term is commonly used by the U.S. Federal Reserve when it wants to describe a period of slowing inflation. 

Unlike deflation, this is not harmful to the economy because the inflation rate is reduced marginally over a short-term period.

Unlike inflation and deflation, disinflation is the change in the rate of inflation.

• Prices do not drop during periods of disinflation and it does not signal an economic slowdown. 
• While a negative growth rate—such as -2 percent—indicates deflation, disinflation is demonstrated by a change in the inflation rate from one year to the next. 
• So disinflation would be measured as a change of 4 percent from one year to 2.5 percent in the next.

IMPORTANT:  Disinflation isn't necessarily bad for the stock market, as it may be during periods of deflation. In fact, stocks can perform well when the inflation rate drops.



Disinflation is caused by several different factors.

• A recession or a contraction in the business cycle may result in disinflation. 
• It may also be caused by the tightening of monetary policy by a central bank. When this happens, the government may also begin to sell some of its securities, and reduce its money supply.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032415/what-difference-between-deflation-and-disinflation.asp#:~:text=Deflation%20is%20a%20decrease%20in,shifts%20in%20supply%20and%20demand.&text=The%20inflation%20rate%20is%20declining%20over%20time%2C%20but%20it%20remains%20positive.

Disinflation

By WILL KENTON
Updated Sep 12, 2019


What is Disinflation?

Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation.

It is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.

It should not be confused with deflation, which can be harmful to the economy.


KEY TAKEAWAYS

Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation.

Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.

A healthy amount of disinflation is necessary, since it represents economic contraction and prevents the economy from overheating.


Understanding Disinflation

Disinflation is commonly used by the Federal Reserve to describe a period of slowing inflation. 

Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.

Although sometimes confused with deflation, disinflation is not considered problematic because 

• prices do not actually drop, and 
• disinflation does not usually signal the onset of a slowing economy. 

Deflation is represented as a negative growth rate, such as -1%, while disinflation is shown as a change in the inflation rate from 3% one year to 2% the next.

Disinflation is considered the opposite of reflation, which occurs when a government stimulates an economy by increasing money supply.

A healthy amount of disinflation is necessary, since it

• represents economic contraction and 
• prevents the economy from overheating. 

As such, instances of disinflation are not uncommon and are viewed as normal during healthy economic times.

Disinflation benefits certain segments of a population, such as people who are inclined to save their earnings.


Causes of Disinflation

Several main reasons can cause an economy to experience disinflation.

• If a central bank decides to impose a tighter monetary policy and the government starts to sell off some of its securities, it could reduce the supply of money in the economy, causing a disinflationary effect. 
• Similarly, a contraction in the business cycle or a recession can also cause disinflation. For example, businesses may choose not to increase prices to gain greater market share, leading to disinflation.

Disinflation Since 1980

The U.S. economy experienced one of its longest periods of disinflation from 1980 through 2015.

During the 1970s, the rapid rise of inflation came to be known as the Great Inflation, with prices increasing more than 110% during the decade. The annual rate of inflation topped out at 14.76% in early 1980. 

Following the implementation of aggressive monetary policies by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation, 

• the increase in prices slowed in the 1980s, rising just 59% for the period. 
• In the decade of the 1990s, prices rose 32%, 
• followed by a 27% increase between 2000 and 2009, and 
• a 9% increase between 2010 and 2015.

Stock Performance During the Period of Disinflation from early 1980 to 2015

During this period of disinflation, stocks performed well, averaging 8.65% in real returns between 1982 and 2015.

Disinflation also allowed the Federal Reserve

• to lower interest rates in the 2000s, 
• which led to bonds generating above-average returns.

The Danger of Disinflation

The danger that disinflation presents is when the rate of inflation falls near to zero, as it did in 2015, raising the specter of deflation. 

Although the rate of inflation turned negative briefly in 2015, concerns over deflation were dismissed because it was largely attributed to falling energy prices. 



[Some economists view the near-zero rate of inflation in 2015 as a bottom, with the expectation, or hope, the rate of inflation will begin to rise again. As of Jan. 2018, the rate of inflation stands at 2.1%, with projections for an increase to 2.38% later in the year.]


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

Tug of war between Deflation and Inflation: the most Challenging Investment Climate today

A Central Banker’s Worst Nightmare


#Inflation and Deflation

From a mathematical perspective, inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin.

• Inflation is a period of generally rising prices. 
• Deflation is a period of generally falling prices.

Both are deviations from true price stability, and both distort the decisions of consumers and investors.

• In inflation, consumers may accelerate purchases before the price goes up. 
• In deflation, consumers may delay purchases in the expectation that prices are going down and things will be cheaper if they wait.

To investors, inflation and deflation are bad in equal, if opposite, measure.

But, from a central banker’s perspective, inflation and deflation are not equally bad. 

• Inflation is something that central bankers consider to be a manageable problem and something that is occasionally desirable. 
• Deflation is something central bankers consider unmanageable and potentially devastating. 

#Central banks fear deflation more than inflation

Understanding why central banks fear deflation more than inflation is the key to understanding central bank monetary policy today.

1.  Central bankers believe they can control inflation by tightening monetary policy. 

• Generally, monetary policy is tightened by raising interest rates. 
• Since rates can be raised to infinity, there is not limit on this tool. 
• Therefore, no matter how strong inflation is, central banks can always tame it with more rate increases.
• The classic case is Paul Volcker in 1980 who raised interest rates to twenty percent in order to crush inflation that had reached thirteen percent.  
• Central bankers feel that if the inflation genie escapes from the bottle, they can always coax it back in. 

2.  Central bankers also believe that inflation can be good for an economy.  

This is because of something called the Marginal Propensity to Consume or MPC.   The MPC is a measure of how much an individual will spend out of an added dollar of income.

• The idea is that if you give a poor person a dollar they will spend all of it because they struggle to pay for food, housing and heath care. 
• If you give a rich person a dollar, they will spend very little of it because their needs are already taken care of, so they are more likely to save or invest that dollar.  
• Based on this, poorer people have a higher MPC. 

3.  Inflation can be understood as a wealth transfer from the rich to the poor. 

• For the rich person, his savings are worth less, and his spending is about the same because he has a low MPC. 
• By contrast, the poor person has no savings and may have debts that are reduced in real value during inflation. Poor people may also get wage increases in inflation, which they spend because of their higher MPC.

4.   Therefore, inflation tends to increase total consumption because

• the wealth transfer from rich to poor increases the spending of the poor, 
• but does not decrease spending by the rich who still buy whatever they want. 

The result is higher total spending or “aggregate demand” which helps the economy grow.




#Deflation hurts the government in many ways

Deflation is not so benign and hurts the government in many ways.


1.  It increases the real value of the national debt making it harder to finance.

• Deficits continue to pile up even in deflation, but GDP growth may slow down when measured in nominal dollars. 
• The result is that the debt-to-GDP ratio can skyrocket in periods of deflation. 
• Something like this has been happening in Japan for decades. 
• When the debt-to-GDP ratio gets too high, a sovereign debt crisis and collapse of confidence in the currency can result.

2.  Deflation also destroys government tax collections. 

• If a worker makes $100,000 per year and gets a $10,000 raise when prices are constant, that worker has a 10% increase in her standard of living. 
• The problem is that the government takes $3,000 of the increase in taxes, so the worker only gets $7,000 of the raise after taxes.
• But if the worker gets no raise, and prices drop ten percent, she still has a ten percent increase in her standard of living because everything she buys costs less. 
• But now she keeps the entire gain because the government has no way to tax the benefits of deflation. 
• In both cases, the worker has a $10,000 increase in her standard of living, but in inflation the government takes $3,000, while in deflation the government gets none of the gain.

#What is good for government is often bad for INVESTORS.

For all of these reasons, governments favor inflation.   It can

• increase consumption, 
• decrease the value of government debt, and 
• increase tax collections. 

Governments fear deflation because

• it causes people to save, not spend; 
• it increases the burden of government debt, and 
• it hurts tax collections.

But, what is good for government is often bad for investors. 

In deflation, investors can actually benefit from

• lower costs, 
• lower taxes and 
• an increase in the real value of savings. 

As a rule, inflation is good for government and bad for savers; while deflation is bad for government and good for savers.

#Flaws in the thinking about inflation and deflation by the government and economists

There are many flaws in the way the government and economists think about inflation and deflation.

The idea of MPC as a guide to economic growth is badly flawed.

Even if poor people have a higher propensity to consume than rich people, there is more to economic growth than consumption. 


1.  The real driver of long-term growth is not consumption, but investment. 

• While inflation may help drive consumption, it destroys capital formation and hurts investment. 
• A policy of favoring inflation over deflation may prompt consumption growth in the short run, but it retards investment led growth in the long run. 
• Inflation is a case of a farmer eating his own seed-corn in the winter and having nothing left to plant in the spring. Later he will starve.

2.  It is also not true that inflation is easy to control. 

• Up to a certain point, inflation can be contained by interest rate increases, but the costs may be high, and the damage may already be done. 
• Beyond that threshold, inflation can turn into hyperinflation.  

3.  Hyperinflation

At that point, no amount of interest rate increases can stop the headlong dash to dump money and acquire hard assets such as gold, land, and natural resources. 

• Hyperinflation is almost never brought under control. 
• The typical outcome is to wipe out the existing currency system and start over after savings and retirement promises have been destroyed.

#Central banks favour inflation over deflation:  Its Implications

In a better world, central bankers would aim for true price stability that does not involve inflation or deflation.

But given the flawed economic beliefs and government priorities described above, that is not the case.

1.  Central banks favor inflation over deflation because it

• increases tax collections, 
• reduces the burden of government debt and 
• gooses consumption. 

If savers and investors are the losers, that’s just too bad.


2.  The implications of this asymmetry are profound.

• In a period where deflationary forces are strong, such as the one we are now experiencing, central banks have to use every trick at their disposal to stop deflation and cause inflation. 
• If one trick does not work, they must try another.

Since 2008 central banks have used

• interest rate cuts, 
• quantitative easing, 
• forward guidance, 
• currency wars, 
• nominal GDP targets, and 
• operation twist to cause inflation. 

3.  None of it has worked; deflation is still a strong tendency in the global economy. This is unlikely to change.  The deflationary forces are not going away soon.

• Investors should expect more monetary experiments in the years ahead. 
• If deflation is strong enough, central banks may even encourage an increase in the price of gold  in order to raise inflationary expectations.

4.  Eventually the central banks will win and they will get the inflation they want.

• But it may take time and the inflation may turn into hyperinflation in ways the central banks do not expect or understand. 
• This “tug-of-war” between inflation and deflation creates the most challenging investment climate in 80 years.

The best investment strategies involve a balanced portfolio of hard assets and cash so investors can be ready for both.