To STOP the transmission of Covid-19: Test, test, test, trace, trace, trace, vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate.

Very important to know what to do

If you are symptomatic or have been identified to be a close contact to a positive case, please undergo immediate medical screening and testing.

While waiting for the test results, please self-quarantine at home responsibly.

Notify the health ministry through self-notification in the MySejahtera application and the nearby District Health Office or CAC, if you are found to be positive either through the RT-PCR or RTK Antigen test.

Immediately report any "warning signs" and seek treatment at a nearby health facility.  Warning signs are symptoms that signal that a Covid-19 patient's condition is getting worse.

Contact your regular doctor too (hopefully you have a regular doctor ) to let him/her know of your condition so that he/she may advise you accordingly also, over this period of your illness.

Vaccinate as soon as this is available.

-----------

Malaysia sees exponential rise in brought-in-dead Covid-19 cases

By Tharanya Arumugam - July 2, 2021 @ 8:31pm

Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah advised people to be more vigilant in monitoring their health, especially when they have tested Covid-19 positive and are undergoing home quarantine or self-isolation. - NSTP/SYAFEEQ AHMAD

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is seeing an exponential rise in brought-in-dead (BID) cases due to Covid-19 complications, particularly in the Klang Valley region involving those aged 50 and above.

Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah advised people to be more vigilant in monitoring their health, especially when they have tested Covid-19 positive and are undergoing home quarantine or self-isolation.

He said an analysis by the National Crisis Preparedness and Response Centre (CPRC) found that there has been a sevenfold increase in BID cases from April (35 cases) to June 2021 (246 cases).

"As of July 2, the ministry recorded a total of 5,327 deaths (0.7 per cent) since the Covid-19 pandemic hit our country.

"A total of 4,856 (91.2 per cent) deaths were reported in 2021. Of the total deaths in 2021, 670 (13.8 per cent) deaths were reported before arrival at the hospital (BID)," he said in a statement today.

He said most BID cases involved victims aged 50 to 70 years (76.7 per cent) with at least a comorbidity (64.5 per cent).

"The highest number of BID cases concerned those aged between 60 and 69 (170), followed by the 50 to 59 age group (130), 70 to 79 (106), 80+ (107), 40 to 49 (85), 30 to 39 (46), 20 to 29 (20) and aged below 20 (six cases)."

Selangor, he said clocked the highest number of BID cases this year at 181 (27 per cent), followed by Kuala Lumpur (78 cases or 11.6 per cent) and Sabah (85 cases or 12.7 per cent).

Other states with BID cases this year were Sarawak (45), Labuan (31), Johor (23), Kelantan (18), Melaka (14), Negri Sembilan (14), Penang (13), Pahang (12), Perak (11), and Kedah (four).

Perlis and Putrajaya registered no BID cases from Jan to July 2, this year.

Dr Noor Hisham advised the public to undergo immediate medical screening and testing if they were symptomatic or have been identified to be a close contact to a positive case.

He also reminded people who were waiting for their test results and calls from the District Health Office (PKD) and Covid-19 Assessment Center (CAC) to self-quarantine at home responsibly.

"Notify the health ministry through self-notification in the MySejahtera application and the nearby District Health Office or CAC if they are found to be positive either through the RT-PCR or RTK Antigen test.

"Immediately report any 'warning signs' and seek treatment at a nearby health facility. Warning signs are symptoms that signal that a Covid-19 patient's condition is getting worse."

Among the warning signs that require immediate treatment, he said, are prolonged fever; breathing difficulties; chest pain; lack of appetite to eat or drink; worsening fatigue; lack of consciousness and confusion; coughing, vomiting and worsening diarrhoea; less urination; lips or fingers becoming bluish; and oxygen saturation

"Family members or housemates are advised to be concerned and sensitive to the condition and health of Covid-19 patients by utilising communication technology to monitor the health of patients throughout the home quarantine monitoring period."

Dr Noor Hisham further said the ministry is also working to improve the monitoring process by CACs nationwide to enable a comprehensive initial assessment to be done immediately on positive cases.

These cases, he said will then be determined whether they can undergo isolation and self-monitoring at home, need to be admitted to the Covid-19 Low-Risk Treatment Center (PRKC) or referred to a hospital.

"With the strengthening of the CAC, better case monitoring can be carried out and immediate referrals can be made if necessary."

Additionally, he said the ministry is working with various parties to increase the capacity of daily SARS-CoV-2 virus detection tests which consist of RT-PCR and RTK-Ag tests.

To increase the capacity of RT-PCR testing, the ministry, he said is collaborating with laboratories from various ministries - Higher Education; Science, Technology and Innovation; Defense - and private laboratories.

RTK-Ag testing is conducted by private clinics and hospitals either individually or by mass screening, he said.

"Cooperation between these agencies and sectors has enabled case detection activities and other public health actions to be implemented promptly."

Dr Noor Hisham added that the ministry would implement a smart device initiative at several CACs including by issuing pulse oxymeters to monitor the current condition of Covid-19 patients while at home.

"As announced by the health ministry, this initiative aims to strengthen the management of Covid-19 patients. With this initiative, the health of patients tested positive, especially those who are undergoing isolation at home, can be better monitored so that any deterioration of symptoms can be detected more quickly."

Source:

Malaysia sees exponential rise in brought-in-dead Covid-19 cases

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/07/704592/malaysia-sees-exponential-rise-brought-dead-covid-19-cases

Current Economic Issues: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell

May 13, 2020

Current Economic Issues
Chair Jerome H. Powell

At the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. (via webcast)


The coronavirus has left a devastating human and economic toll in its wake as it has spread around the globe. This is a worldwide public health crisis, and health-care workers have been the first responders, showing courage and determination and earning our lasting gratitude. So have the legions of other essential workers who put themselves at risk every day on our behalf.

As a nation, we have temporarily withdrawn from many kinds of economic and social activity to help slow the spread of the virus. Some sectors of the economy have been effectively closed since mid-March. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold, making enormous sacrifices to protect not just their own health and that of their loved ones, but also their neighbors and the broader community. While we are all affected, the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it.

The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and in employment, and already the job gains of the past decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March.1 This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.

This downturn is different from those that came before it. Earlier in the post– World War II period, recessions were sometimes linked to a cycle of high inflation followed by Fed tightening.2 The lower inflation levels of recent decades have brought a series of long expansions, often accompanied by the buildup of imbalances over time—asset prices that reached unsupportable levels, for instance, or important sectors of the economy, such as housing, that boomed unsustainably. The current downturn is unique in that it is attributable to the virus and the steps taken to limit its fallout. This time, high inflation was not a problem. There was no economy-threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust. The virus is the cause, not the usual suspects—something worth keeping in mind as we respond.

Today I will briefly discuss the measures taken so far to offset the economic effects of the virus, and the path ahead. Governments around the world have responded quickly with measures to support workers who have lost income and businesses that have either closed or seen a sharp drop in activity. The response here in the United States has been particularly swift and forceful.

To date, Congress has provided roughly $2.9 trillion in fiscal support for households, businesses, health-care providers, and state and local governments—about 14 percent of gross domestic product. While the coronavirus economic shock appears to be the largest on record, the fiscal response has also been the fastest and largest response for any postwar downturn.

At the Fed, we have also acted with unprecedented speed and force. After rapidly cutting the federal funds rate to close to zero, we took a wide array of additional measures to facilitate the flow of credit in the economy, which can be grouped into four areas.

• First, outright purchases of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to restore functionality in these critical markets. 
• Second, liquidity and funding measures, including discount window measures, expanded swap lines with foreign central banks, and several facilities with Treasury backing to support smooth functioning in money markets. 
• Third, with additional backing from the Treasury, facilities to more directly support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments. 
• And fourth, temporary regulatory adjustments to encourage and allow banks to expand their balance sheets to support their household and business customers.

The Fed takes actions such as these only in extraordinary circumstances, like those we face today. For example, our authority to extend credit directly to private nonfinancial businesses and state and local governments exists only in "unusual and exigent circumstances" and with the consent of the Secretary of the Treasury. When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.

While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks. Economic forecasts are uncertain in the best of times, and today the virus raises a new set of questions:

• How quickly and sustainably will it be brought under control? 
• Can new outbreaks be avoided as social-distancing measures lapse? 
• How long will it take for confidence to return and normal spending to resume? 
• And what will be the scope and timing of new therapies, testing, or a vaccine? 

The answers to these questions will go a long way toward setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Since the answers are currently unknowable, policies will need to be ready to address a range of possible outcomes.

The overall policy response to date has provided a measure of relief and stability, and will provide some support to the recovery when it comes. But the coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns as well.

1. The record shows that deeper and longer recessions can leave behind lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy.3 
2. Avoidable household and business insolvencies can weigh on growth for years to come. 
3. Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers' careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up, and leave families in greater debt.4 
4. The loss of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses across the country would destroy the life's work and family legacy of many business and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes. These businesses are a principal source of job creation—something we will sorely need as people seek to return to work. 
5. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of capital stock and the pace of technological advancement. The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes.

We ought to do what we can to avoid these outcomes, and that may require additional policy measures. At the Fed, we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well under way. Recall that the Fed has lending powers, not spending powers. A loan from a Fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems. Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This tradeoff is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending.

Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.


https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200513a.htm?fbclid=IwAR0ZrRkqMbUqbmzWnv4l5MG0Fwqns_nD1eThWL-PoRe5zSCWLdsHU5_uRX4

Health DG Disputes Workers’ Covid-19 Mass Testing

By CodeBlue


Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah says workers are still exposed to Covid-19 infections in the community even after testing negative once.


KUALA LUMPUR, May 11 — Widespread testing of employees before returning to work is redundant as they will still be exposed to possible Covid-19 infection from their community, the Ministry of Health (MOH) said today.

As the nation enters into the second phase of the Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) effective from May 13 to June 9, some medical experts from the Malaysian Medical Association and Universiti Malaya have questioned workers’ Covid-19 mass screenings, pointed out that people can still get infected after clearing a single test.

“If we screen employees, then they go to work, they would still be exposed to the community the next week. So, the question is how many times do we have to test?

“They are exposed to the community every day and the coronavirus is in the community,” said Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah at a press conference today.

He reiterated MOH’s targeted testing strategy, saying that there are eight target groups for coronavirus testing as of yesterday.

“If we do an Enhanced Movement Control Order (EMCO) in certain areas, we will screen everyone there, whether citizens or not,” explained Dr Noor Hisham, regarding MOH’s targeted testing strategy.

He also noted that sporadic Covid-19 infections from surveillance of flu-like have been decreasing, with cumulative unlinked coronavirus cases at 207. In a period of weeks, health authorities only detected three coronavirus cases from the monitoring of influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infections.

“As per our targeted approach, locality and target groups, we look at jemaah tabligh, tahfiz schools, EMCO; now we look at clusters or targets like the markets,” said Dr Noor Hisham, adding that MOH was also planning to increase coronavirus screening for people undergoing surgery.

• Dr Noor Hisham reported that only six out of 8,528 pre-surgery cases were positive for Covid-19, or 0.1 per cent. 
• On the community screening of 5,433 individuals in Selangor, positive Covid-19 cases are only 10, which is a 0.18 per cent positivity rate. 
• In terms of screening at several markets, to date, 25,034 have been screened with only 183 positive, which is a 0.7 per cent positivity rate. 
• Malaysians returning from overseas are also tested for Covid-19, with a positivity rate of below 1 per cent.

“If there is an outbreak, if there is an increase in cases at one place, such as a factory, then we will take action,” he said.

“Now, we only screen

• those with positive symptoms, or 
• the asymptomatic who have close contact with positive cases.”

Health authorities have previously reported Covid-19 clusters at a factory in Pedas, Negri Sembilan; a construction site in Ampang here; another construction site in Setia Alam, Selangor; and a security guard cluster at a shopping centre in Cheras.

MOH today reported 70 new Covid-19 cases, including 31 infections among foreign nationals and 13 imported cases. Twenty Covid-19 patients are still in the intensive care unit (ICU), including seven on ventilator support. One new death was reported today.

The Social Security Organisation (Socso) said Saturday that Covid-19 testing, which it provides for free to contributors through its Prihatin Screening Programme, is only compulsory for

• foreign workers in the construction sector or
• those working in coronavirus red zones.

https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/05/11/health-dg-disputes-workers-covid-19-mass-testing/?fbclid=IwAR1kNc2eb3HjnvwDavi3QfLlDt-e10uSA0UIietBg6qevqhYoYo26Q-ydYs

Dr Michael SW Lee

Dr Michael SW Lee is 

Associate Professor of Marketing 

in the University of Auckland Business School.

IDEASROOM

What type of business will survive Covid-19?

The University of Auckland's Mike Lee analyses the impact of Covid-19 on different types of business, and how they will fare in future pandemic-related crises

A global economic recession is now inevitable. 

Yet, as demonstrated in the past, not all businesses are impacted in the same way by the same recession. For instance, the luxury brand market recovered more quickly than mass appeal brands following the Global Financial Crisis and has sustained constant growth since 2010. 

While fundamentally different, Covid-19 is still no exception. Many of us have already experienced, first-hand, the increase in demand for hand sanitisers, fever medication, face masks and, in some countries, toilet paper. Logically, the former three industries should do well in a recession brought about by Covid-19, or any other future pandemic. Other sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and mass gatherings are more likely to suffer. Unfortunately, some companies will become bankrupt owing to a downturn in demand, combined with government protocols (rightly) prioritising health before wealth.

In this article, I will analyse the similarities and differences of businesses that will dive, survive or thrive during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as future pandemic-related crises.

The two key factors I have used to categorise businesses into three Covid-19 outcomes (Dive, Survive, Thrive) are:
1) Synchronicity and 2) Location dependence.

Figure 1 (below) illustrates how most businesses may be mapped out on these two criteria, and how that might be detrimental or beneficial for any given business during this, and future crises brought about by human to human contagion.

Notably, businesses hardest hit by Covid-19 are those in the bottom left quadrant. These businesses are location dependent and rely on synchronous timing between customer and provider. For example, traditional tour operators, cruise ships, dine-in restaurants, concerts and sporting events. In all these cases, customers and providers need to be in the same place (location dependent) at the same time (synchronous service). In the climate of Covid-19, or any other future pandemic, such business models will always suffer. 

Paradoxically, such synchronous location dependent businesses require the most complex levels of coordination and scheduling, which means they are also highly inconvenient, in that all stakeholders need to be at the same place at the same time. It wasn’t that long ago that TV broadcasting was a location dependent synchronous activity. People had to be home by their TV set and wait for the news or favourite TV show to be broadcasted at a specific time. Note how (even without a global pandemic) this model was quickly displaced by asynchronous (on-demand) location independent (mobile, laptops, etc.) businesses such as Netflix. 

Figure 1:

Certainly the regular work week, Monday to Friday, 9am-5pm (and the consequent traffic jams many of us endure twice a day), was implemented to ensure most workers could be at the same place at the same time to accomplish joint projects, and also to ensure customers that they could reach our businesses at an assured time and place. 

This time and place was then elongated and expanded to make business interactions more accessible (24/7, in every corner of the globe) mainly for the convenience of the customer, but more recently for the convenience of Covid-19. Thus, it should come as no surprise businesses that rely the most on physical and temporal availability are those hardest hit by a virus that also relies on physical and temporal proximity. Covid-19 has essentially built its success on the success of our globalised economy. 

Ironically, while the virus has evolved very well to adapt to our system of international trade and commercial capitalism, many synchronous location dependent business models have not evolved much in the last 200 years, since the industrial revolution. Perhaps one silver lining in the corona cloud is that all modern businesses will be forced to question their practices in terms of synchronicity and location dependence. What is the real role of time and place for our business? 

Indeed, the next class of businesses that should be able to survive Covid-19 are those that are location-based, but able to operate asynchronously (such as self-service stations, or independent domestic nature tourism); or businesses that may rely on synchronous service but independent of location (for example, online counselling and restaurants built around delivery).

For the former (asynchronous location-dependent businesses), the place of business (the where) is important but the when is flexible, thus enabling a spreading out of physical proximity. For the latter (synchronous location independent businesses) shared timing, or the when, is critical but the location (the where) is flexible, once again, enabling a spreading out of physical proximity. 

From a commercial point of view, these businesses would be more desirable, with or without a pandemic, since both offer convenience and flexibility in either timing or location. Later, I will discuss strategies to help businesses evolve from synchronous location dependence to a slightly more flexible position, and then eventually evolve into the most flexible business model: asynchronous location independence.

These businesses, the final class and set to thrive during Covid-19, have already mastered the art of allowing the customer when and where to do business. Netflix, Amazon, Uber Eats, Fortnite, are all examples of businesses thriving before Covid-19; and now may be on track to do even better as governments, health authorities, and employers call for social distancing and self-isolation. 

Case example: Tertiary education

As a marketing professor I have noticed, over the past two decades, universities coming to terms with an audience increasingly comfortable with, nay, expectant of, asynchronous location independent service and product offerings. Even before Covid-19, our main stakeholders (students) have come to expect online lecture recordings. These are part of several changes helping universities evolve from heavily synchronous location dependent institutions to more flexible and inclusive asynchronous location independent businesses. 

Undoubtedly, during the adoption of such technological changes, many faculty staff would have complained about the watering down of the tertiary educational experience and lamented about the emerging class of graduates who can no longer be bothered ‘turning up’. Yet, if anything, Covid-19 is forcing us to confront the importance of ‘turning up’. If our off-campus students are now expected to achieve similar results via asynchronous location-independent models of pedagogy, surely many ‘real-world’ businesses should also be able to thrive, or at the very least survive, the next 18 months, and beyond?

Questions to shift your business from Dive to Survive to Thrive:

1. Critically analyse the when and where of your business operations.

    a) How important is synchronicity or temporal proximity to your business? Really?

    b) How important is physical proximity? Do you really need to be in the same place as your key stakeholders to deliver the same outcomes? 

2. Can you achieve the same outcome if time and place were not considered a fixed entity?

3. What aspects of your operations could evolve to become less reliant on temporal proximity?

4. What aspects of your operations could evolve to be less reliant on physical proximity?

5. Pick the path of least resistance to become more asynchronous or less location dependent, if achieving both is too challenging.

The luxury brand market recovered more quickly than mass appeal brands following the Global Financial Crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson

Ihttps://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2020/03/21/1092476/how-business-will-survive-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3bPhMqQvW0BNUXhalX8YUv8JA68y1LrSAc283azUSRA2Fi8InfoWOYF3I

Investing planning in the midst of Covid-19 pandemic

POSTED ON APRIL 18, 2020, SATURDAY



WITH history as our guide, equity markets always recover after panic selling, especially when it is triggered by events such as a war, a catastrophic event or a pandemic. Therefore, as far as investing planning is concerned, the strategy is to stay invested if you are investing for a medium or long term financial goal.


Financial Times published an article earlier this year titled “Investors look to history for clues on market impact of coronavirus” and quoted the chief global market strategist of an international investment firm, “Investors are looking back at previous epidemics in an effort to anticipate how badly the coronavirus outbreak could affect already shaky global markets. It is important that we don’t panic but really look to history as a guide.”

It also reported that JP Morgan has assessed the market impact of past outbreaks, notably

• SARS (November 2002 to July 2003), 
• swine flu (March 2009 to August 2010), 
• Ebola (December 2013 to June 2016) and 
• the Zika virus (March 2015 to November 2016).

In each of those cases, a sharp initial stock market decline quickly gave way to a recovery. Head of global and European equity strategy at JP Morgan in London, remarked, “The more equities fell initially, the more they subsequently rebounded. These episodes did not lead to a prolonged period of selling and were a buying opportunity within weeks.”

Of course, we gather that this coronavirus called Covid-19, resembles SARS, with about 80 per cent of its genetic code similar to SARS. It spreads pretty much similar ways, and with similar symptoms. But SARS seems to have a higher fatality rates.

At time of writing, Covid-19 pandemic is still unfolding and in some countries, its spreading has not peaked. Scientists are still trying to understand this new virus and there is a certain degree of uncertainty about how and when this pandemic will end.



Stay invested

Try not to switch out to lower risk/volatility fund if your investment time horizon is medium (three to five years) to long term.

I have observed this phenomenon of investors reacting emotionally to market panic, and switching to low risk funds when the 2008 financial crisis hit.

Smart Investor magazine in its January 2009 edition, carried an article titled: “Investors Seek Low Risk Option” with the quote: “During uncertain times, investors tend to flock towards cash or invest in structured, capital guaranteed funds, and in some cases money market funds” and also “Out of 70 funds launched in year 2008, the bulk were capital protected funds.”


In 2008 and 2009, many fund houses launched low risk or even capital guaranteed funds to suit the risk-averse appetite of investors at that time.

The consequence? Investors who reacted emotionally and switched to or got locked in to low risked funds actually missed the boat when market rebounded eventually.

Investors are allowed to be worried about volatility, but it can be managed intelligently by using the averaging strategy, either using cost averaging or value averaging.



Review and restructure your unit trust portfolio

Now the crucial thing for you to do is to engage a licensed financial adviser to conduct a portfolio review on all the existing unit trust funds you have purchased, both cash or using your EPF.

This is to see if your portfolio is damaged or is still relevant in view of the present market conditions versus your investing objectives. At the same time, it is essential to re-structure your portfolio so that you are in a better position to take advantage of the rebound later.

Even though market analysts can’t agree whether the market recovery will be a V-shape, U-shaped or even L-shaped scenario, by re-structuring your fund portfolio, you can weight it more heavily on sectors, countries or regions which are more lightly to recover from the pandemic.

Countries which are aggressive on testing and with prudent Covid-19 strategy in place are more likely to recover faster.

Not all the sectors of the economy will be impacted negatively in a pandemic situation. In actual fact, certain sectors of the economy will do relatively well.

The other factor is of course how quickly a vaccine can be available to end the pandemic.

Governments of many countries in the world now have actually learnt well on how to handle the market panic caused by Covid-19 after the experience accumulated after the 2008 financial crisis.

We are seeing both monetary and fiscal policy tools being rolled out aggressively by many governments at the same time when pandemic control measures are being announced.

The knowledge in virology now is definitely more advanced and authorities in various countries are acting more quickly this time around compared to 17 years ago when SARS erupted. And along the way, scientists have acquired more knowledge about ebola, MERS and other viruses that emerged since the time of SARS in 2003.

You can also see countries and citizens who had the previous SARS experience doing much better than those countries who have not learnt how to handle a SARS-like pandemic.

Meanwhile, sophisticated and institutional investors are actually quietly picking oversold and undervalued stocks in time of panic selling now.

Stay invested. Be smart. Dollar cost or value average to manage the downside risk. Market volatility will be there as the ugly numbers are not out yet.



Lee Khee Chuan ChFC, CLU, FLMI, B.A..  Lee is a chartered financial consultant, chartered life underwriter, fellow, life management institute and a CMSRL license holder, franchisee of Rockwills and Islamic estate planner with A-Salihin Trustee Bhd.


https://www.theborneopost.com/2020/04/18/investing-planning-in-the-midst-of-covid-19-pandemic/

Federal govt has limited fiscal space

POSTED ON APRIL 13, 2020, MONDAY




KUCHING: Malaysia’s stimulus package is larger compared with other major Asean economies, but analysts cautioned that the federal government now has limited fiscal space.


The research arm of Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) observed that in terms of share of GDP, Malaysia’s stimulus package is relatively large compared with other Asean economies, standing at 17.6 per cent of GDP, while Singapore’s stood at 12 per cent, Thailand at 12 per cent and Indonesia at 2.5 per cent.



“Although it may have additional support measures should the pandemic situation worsen, hindering economic activities for a prolonged period, we view that the federal government has limited fiscal space,” Kenanga Research said.

“Generally, a fiscal stimulus could come from budget surplus or, in some cases, a drawdown from a national reserves.

“But, if a country’s balance sheet is still saddled with a deficit then issuing debt to finance the stimulus may only be the main option.”

Meanwhile, Kenanga Research highlighted that with a forecast debt of RM869 billion by end-2020 and an estimated outstanding debt as at March 2020 of RM822.5 billion, the balance of net debt issuance for the remainder of the year is around RM46.5 billion.

The research arm noted that this registered below the leftover debt space at an estimated RM61.7 billion, allowing the government to maintain its compliance to the aforementioned debt limits.


“In fact, the government still have a remaining fiscal space of about RM15.2 billion (one per cent of GDP), should the need for additional fiscal injection arises.

“Malaysian government debt remains attractive among investors amid low interest rate environment in the advanced economies.

“In 2019, the government issued RM135.2 billion gross debt comprising 94.5 per cent of domestic borrowings and another 5.5 per cent of foreign borrowing (samurai bond).


“It is worth noting that the government received RM190.9 billion bid within the first eight months in 2019, far larger than the amount of total gross debt needed.”



Based on the current deteriorating economic condition and market sentiment, this year, the research arm expected gross debt issuance to register between RM130 billion and RM150 billion.

According to Kenanga Research, from the liquidity perspective, data suggests that the banking system condition remains conducive, with adequate funds to support financial intermediation.


It further highlighted that outstanding excess liquidity placed with Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) was at RM156 billion, as at March 2020.

This could be expanded further, as the research arm viewed that the BNM has a room to lower the Statutory Reserve Requirement ratio (SRR) by another 100 basis points (bp) to match the Global Financial Crisis-low of one per cent (March 2009), releasing an estimated RM17 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP) worth of liquidity into the market.

“This gives a rather sizeable impact as the statutory deposits account for almost 30 per cent of the excess liquidity.

“Of note, previously in March, the SRR was reduced by 100bp to two per cent and dealers were granted flexibility to recognise Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Malaysian Government Islamic Issues (MGII) of up to RM1 billion as part of the SRR compliance.

“BNM estimated the move to result in a RM30 billion, two per cent of GDP, worth of liquidity injection into the system.”

Kenanga Research went on to highlight that banking system deposits held by statutory agencies amounted to RM78.2 billion, as at February 2020.

The research arm also noted on temporary BNM financing, whereby section 71 of the Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009 allows the BNM to extend temporary financing (maximum 12.5 per cent (RM30.6 billion) of the projected revenue (RM244.5 billion as stated in the federal government’s budget tabled in the Parliament) to the government due to revenue deficiencies.

“The government is obligated to repay BNM no later than three months after the end of the financial year the financing was made and BNM cannot extend any further temporary financing until the outstanding amount is fully repaid.”

On another note, against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic downturn and premising on the national reserves’ purpose of supporting the country, not only during a financial crisis, but also in the event of a national disasters or emergencies, Kenanga Research opined that Malaysia could perhaps emulate Singapore’s best practice of managing its reserves.

The research arm recapped that Singapore is among the few if not the only country in the world that has so far tapped into its national reserves to support its economy and to combat the negative impact brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Perhaps there is a need to relook, among others, at section 68 of the Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009, whereby it broadly states that BNM shall hold and manage the foreign reserves in line with the policies and guidelines established by the Board.

“More empathy on the welfare of the people or rakyat should be considered as part of the policy objectives in times of need apart from playing a role to ensure a stable and sound financial system.”


https://www.theborneopost.com/2020/04/13/federal-govt-has-limited-fiscal-space/

How would you decide to restart the economy?

OPINION
How would you decide to restart the economy?

By Mohamed A. El-Erian
April 9, 2020


The tentative optimism in parts of Europe and the US about a turning point in the rate of coronavirus infection is encouraging more people to start thinking about how and when to restart economies. It is a crucial and complex issue involving an unusual range of risks, uncertainties, difficult judgments and trade-offs.

I certainly don't have an easy answer, and neither do people I talk to whom I respect greatly. With a view to generating ideas, how about collectively engaging in the following thought exercise?

Imagine you, as the leader of a liberal democracy, have to make the decision based on the following conversation among three sets of experts - which, for simplicity, we will aggregate into a single expert each on health, the economy and social behaviour.


Health expert: I have good news. Because of our social-distancing policies, we are seeing a turn in the rate of infection of citizens.

Social behaviour expert: That's great news, especially as I hear that more people are starting to wonder whether the huge disruptions to virtually every aspect of their daily lives were worth it. Adjustment fatigue is really setting in.

Economic expert: It's great news indeed. We need to urgently lift the sudden stop to economic activity. Unemployment is soaring. Even otherwise-viable businesses are facing bankruptcies. And our relief efforts are not just costing a lot, but they are less effective than we had hoped for because of the need for better delivery pipes. Can we start normalising economic activity as soon as possible?



"The longer we maintain this economic standstill, the more we risk turning an already unavoidable deep and sudden recession into a financial crisis and, with that combination, a multiyear depression."
Economic expert



Health expert: Not so fast! Yes, we are doing better, but we are nowhere near out of the woods. Immunity is at least a year away, if not longer, be it through a vaccine or herd immunity. Our ability to treat the ill is still limited essentially to just keeping them alive and comfortable as they fight this dangerous virus. We don't have proper drug treatments yet. And let's not forget the difficulty we have in identifying the asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Without that, we can't even think of effective tracking and tracing. If we lift social distancing now, we risk a dangerous relapse that will overwhelm our health system.

Social expert: Wow, that's well said. We would also risk a general loss of trust in medical advice. The government would lose credibility. And the risk of social unrest would increase.

Economic expert: Yes, but if we continue with the sudden stop, we invite multiplying short- and longer-term problems. Our economy, indeed our society, is not wired for social distancing. We are inflicting real damage that risks undermining not just this generation but future ones. The longer we maintain this economic standstill, the more we risk turning an already unavoidable deep and sudden recession into a financial crisis and, with that combination, a multiyear depression.

Social expert: You have a point there. We are worried already about the risk of domestic violence and a deeper opioid crisis.



  "Every day we gain is a big victory, and not just in terms of flattening the curve. We are also getting to know this terrible virus better, helping us in efforts to develop better treatments and vaccines.
Health expert



Health expert: You all have valid points. But every day we gain is a big victory, and not just in terms of flattening the curve. We are also getting to know this terrible virus better, helping us in efforts to develop better treatments and vaccines. Our testing capabilities are increasing, as is the supply of personal protective equipment, ventilators and other crucial material. And let's not forget about what we are learning from other countries that were hit before us, including on testing and post-crisis tracking. Time is in our favour. We are seeing an enormous effort by private industry, and not just pharma and tech.

Social expert: Tracking and testing? You mean this idea of a passport that would allow us to run a multi-track society, with one "safe" segment re-engaging in normal activities and another having to wait? This needs to come after we develop more buy-in for the intrusive method of granting and maintaining the passport, especially as we will have to do a lot of random testing and disseminate sensitive health information, not just about the coronavirus but also pre-existing conditions. It only works if we have broad-based buy-in and, even better, if there's a bottom-up effort that we can capitalise on. We are not China. We are a liberal democracy with more respect for privacy and individual rights. And we also have to be honest about the need to address both conscious and unconscious biases that such selectivity brings out, even if it's health based.

Economic expert: Can't we at least start with partial reopenings. The answer to unusual risk and unsettling uncertainty is not paralysis. There is risk in whatever we do. I would opt for opening up parts of the economy before it's too late to avoid the cure being worse than the disease.

Health expert: Yes, there are risks and uncertainties involved. And that's exactly why we cannot afford a relapse and the spike in infections and deaths that would come with that.

And if we reopen too early, households themselves may hesitate to re-engage in normal life. That would defeat the point of taking the risks in the first place.

Now it's up to you, the decision-maker. The best that these three experts can do is to offer you alternatives and to make explicit the trade-offs that come with them. And it's far from perfect, given that we are still operating in a fog-of-war context.

There are likely to be unknown unknowns and, with that, a high risk of collateral damage and unintended consequences - whatever decision you make.

Well, this is part of a generation-defining moment, and it's your decision. What's your call? .

Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as CEO and co-CIO. He is president-elect of Queens' College, Cambridge, senior adviser at Gramercy and professor of practice at Wharton.

Bloomberg

Delusional: Investors are underestimating the economic shock the world is facing

OPINION

Delusional: Investors are underestimating the economic shock the world is facing

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 16, 2020


Investors are repeating the mistake they made all through February and early March. They are again underestimating the immense economic shock of COVID-19.

Can there be any parallel in market history to the surreal clash of narratives we saw this week?
Global bourses soared even as the International Monetary Fund painted a series of scenarios ranging from dire - the most violent slump since the Great Depression - to catastrophic, with all the potential chain-reactions spelt out in its Global Financial Stability Report.

Markets should not be counting on a swift recovery.

Yet Goldman Sachs tells us that COVID-19 is under control and the worst is over. "The number of new active cases looks to be peaking globally, projections of cumulative fatalities and peak healthcare usage are coming down," it says.

From this breathtaking premise, Wall Street's fashion leader argues that we should "look through" the Great Lockdown to sunlit uplands ahead, anticipating a further 8 per cent rise in the S&P 500 index by the end of the year.

We can disregard normal bear market rules. This time we will avoid the textbook sequence of events in recessions: a swift crash followed by a torrid buy-the-dip rebound, and then a slow downward grind over months as reality hits home, ending only in capitulation at far lower levels.

Authorities have spared us such a fate by rescuing everything immediately. "The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse," it says.

I agree that $US5 trillion ($7.9 trillion) of central bank QE, vast fiscal packages (10 per cent of GDP in the US), and blanket guarantees, have averted disaster. They have - in a disjointed way - bought time and given us a chance of emerging from this global sudden stop without irreparable damage to the productive system.

What is surely wrong is to imagine that this pandemic is a one-off shock lasting three months or so, followed by an early release from lockdowns and a swift return to near normality. The first glimpses of antibody data - such as Denmark's test on blood donors - show that we are nowhere near the safe threshold of herd immunity.

They confirm fears that the mortality rate is at least 1 per cent of infections and that therefore no democracies can let the virus run its course without overwhelming their health services and destroying their political legitimacy. The supposed trade-off between lives and the economy is an illusion. The most certain way to turn this crisis into a depression is to give up too soon, as Spain is already doing, and Donald Trump is itching to do.

We would end up in the worst of all worlds, with multiple waves, and another forced closure of the economy to avert a winter tsunami, requiring trillions more in fiscal relief.

The only viable path is to contain the virus - to drive the R0 transmission rate (the reproduction number that describes the intensity of an outbreak) below 1 - and hold it down by East Asian means of "testing, tracing, and isolating" as we shift from an acute phase to a chronic phase. We are not close to achieving this. We lack the testing infrastructure at scale - even in Germany - and little is being done to prepare the public for tracking surveillance.

"We need a vaccine. Until we get one, the stock markets are in cloud-cuckoo land," says professor Anthony Costello from University College London.

The IMF's most extreme scenario is all too plausible. It assumes the pandemic drags on, with a second outbreak in 2021. This would cause output to contract by almost a tenth and set in motion a "non-linear response of financial markets" - fund parlance for defaults and panic.

Public debt ratios would jump by 20 percentage points of GDP. The shock would push Italy's debt above 175 per cent of GDP. Ratios would rise to 155 per cent in Portugal, and to 135 per cent in Spain and France. In my view, such debt spirals among sub-sovereign borrowers would render monetary union dangerously unstable unless the EU faced up to its "Hamiltonian" moment and agreed to fiscal union. The evidence is that Europe is not about to do any such thing.

Markets are assuming that Germany and its northern allies may grumble but will always allow the ECB to keep covering Club Med fiscal deficits. But assumptions are treacherous.

The IMF prefers to dodge this minefield, but its Stability Report lists plenty of other weak links. For starters, "emerging and frontier markets are facing the perfect storm". Currencies have buckled. Foreign funding has been cut off. Outflows are running at twice the pace of 2008. Median debt is almost 100 per cent of GDP, much higher before the Lehman crisis. Most lack the fiscal firepower to backstop their corporate systems and to cover lost wages.

Global banks were supposed to be bullet-proof after boosting capital ratios but the regulatory buffers were never stress-tested for such a shock. They risk becoming the "amplifier" of the downturn as rising bad loans force them to pull back, starving the real economy of credit.

Even if the worst is avoided and there is no secondary financial crisis, there will not be a swift return to normal. Mohamed El-Erian from Allianz said the rescue measures offer liquidity but cannot prevent the slow burn of defaults. Nor can they kick start the economy when companies refuse to invest because they have no idea what is going to happen.

The market has yet to grasp that "we don't come out of this where we went in". Earnings are structurally damaged for years to come. Equities are not worth the same. Some 17 million Americans have lost their jobs in three weeks and the Great Purge has yet to run its course. Global unemployment rates will explode to politically dangerous levels if the pandemic is not properly contained.

The idea of a V-shaped recovery was overly hopeful three weeks ago. Clinging to that position today borders on delusional.

Telegraph, London

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/delusional-investors-are-underestimating-the-economic-shock-the-world-is-facing-20200416-p54kc3.html?fbclid=IwAR1OUYlAPihyMCNOtNqFj9Bud_V3_BgtsluU3mHjzhiy7If-B7ip2Hvkoro

WHO: Countries Need To Meet 6 Conditions To End Lockdowns

“You can’t replace lockdowns with nothing.”


World Health Organisation Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. CREDIT: UN Photo



KUALA LUMPUR, April 16 —- The World Health Organisation (WHO) released new guidance for governments looking for exit strategies beyond existing lockdown measures.

For many countries currently under lockdowns which have crippled or stalled economies, the answer of when and how to ease restrictions has not been easily answered or forthcoming.

“We understand that these countries are now trying to assess when and how to ease these measures,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

“The answer depends on what countries do while these wide measures are in place.”

Six criteria were identified in WHO’s guidance document to ensure that governments would be able to manage a controlled and deliberate transition from community transmission to a steady state of low level or no transmission.

Any government that wants to start lifting restrictions must first meet six conditions:

1. Transmission of Covid-19 is under control
2. Health systems and public health capacity are able to detect, test, isolate and quarantine every case and trace every contact#
3. Hot spot risks are minimized in highly vulnerable places, such as nursing homes
4. Preventive measures such as physical distancing and hand washing in workplaces have been establised
5. Controlled and managed risk of new import cases from travellers
6. Populations are fully engaged, understand and empowered to live under a new state of “normality”#

(# Most important:  (1)  An engaged population,   (2) the ability to test, isolate, trace and (2)  the health care system capacity to deliver the care.)

There must be a gradual process to prevent a cycle of new outbreaks.

“You can’t replace lockdowns with nothing,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, head of WHO’s emergencies programme. “We don’t want to lurch from lockdown to nothing to lockdown to nothing.”

“We need to have a much more stable exit strategy that allows us to move carefully and persistently away from lockdown.”

WHO has said that in most countries, it is too soon to get back to normal. Ending lockdowns prematurely in an attempt to restart economies could result in the reemergence of infections.

There are currently more than 2 million cases of Covid-19 worldwide and more than 130,000 people have already died.


By CodeBlue
https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/04/16/who-countries-need-to-meet-6-conditions-to-end-lockdowns/?fbclid=IwAR2Qc-KDRYuD9v2_zD4TpD_GuE0bDiOPLUa3cLDyT28XdxEpKweRWQ4CoDY

WORLD NEWS

APRIL 16, 2020
New Zealand's Ardern says many restrictions to be kept in place when lockdown ends


WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday that significant restrictions would be kept in place even if the country eases the nationwide one-month lockdown enforced to beat the spread of the coronavirus.


New Zealand introduced its highest, level 4 lockdown measures in March, under which offices, schools and all non-essential services like bars, restaurants, cafes and playgrounds were shut down. A decision on whether to lift the lockdown would be made on April 20.

The measures were tougher than most other countries, including neighbouring Australia, where some businesses were allowed to operate.

Ardern said if New Zealand moves to the lower level 3 of restriction, it would permit aspects of the economy to reopen in a safe way but there will be no “rush to normality”.

“We have an opportunity to do something no other country has achieved, eliminating the virus,” Ardern said at a news conference.

New Zealand reported 15 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, taking the total to 1,401 in a nation of about 5 million people. There have been nine deaths.

Ardern said under level 3, some people could return to work and businesses reopen if they are able to provide contactless engagement with customers.

Shops, malls, hardware stores and restaurants will remain shut but can permit online or phone purchases.

Schools can open partially up to year 10 but attendance is voluntary, Ardern said, adding that for children who are able, distance learning is still the best option.

Funerals and weddings will be able to go ahead, but limited to 10 people. But they can only be services and no meals, food or receptions can take place.

“By design, Level 3 is a progression, not a rush to normality. It carries forward many of the restrictions in place at Level 4, including the requirement to mainly be at home in your bubble and to limit contact with others,” Ardern said.



Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand-idUSKCN21Y0B6

New Zealand cites new deaths in case against lifting coronavirus lockdown

Fri, 17 Apr 2020

WELLINGTON - New Zealand justified its tough lockdown policies despite a significant drop in the number of coronavirus cases on Friday, with officials citing two new deaths as evidence of the risk from lifting social restrictions too soon.

The country reported just eight fresh COVID-19 cases, the first single digit increase in weeks, taking to the total to 1,409.

However, the two new deaths took the death toll to 11, around half of which are linked to an elderly care home in Christchurch.

"This serves as a sombre reminder that we need to continue to stay home to stay lives and break the chain of transmission," Finance Minister Grant Robertson said at a news conference.

Offices, schools and all non-essential services like bars, restaurants, cafes and playgrounds have been closed for almost a month as part of New Zealand's "Level 4" lockdown. The government is due to make a decision on whether to extend, lift or ease the lockdown on Monday.

Robertson warned people not to expect a major change to the current restrictions, which also limit public movement.

"A little longer now on level 4 or level 3, is ultimately better for the economy than an early exit and potential return to lockdown," Robertson said.

New Zealand, with a population of just over 5 million, has reported fewer cases than other nations following its tough lockdown regime, but, again like others, has had to balance the economic impacts of the shutdown.

Several countries, including Britain, India and Australia, have extended social distancing policies over the past week, while others, such as Singapore and Japan, have reintroduced lockdowns after being hit by a second wave of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.




- Reuters