Forecasting Performance

Typically, forecasting involves making projections of cash flows to some point where the company has a steady state going forward  



The point when the Steady State going forward is reached

This steady state going forward is characterized by two properties

• the company grows at a constant rate with a constant reinvestment ratio, and 
• the company earns a constant rate of return on existing capital and new capital invested.

The Explicit Forecast Period

The horizon to the steady state, called the explicit forecast period, is usually 10 to 15 years.

This explicit forecast period should be divided into

• a first forecast period of five to seven years, where the statements will include many details,and,
• the remaining years' forecasts where the statements are simpler with less detail, which avoids the error of false precision.

Such forecasts require assumptions concerning a host of variables, including the return earned on invested capital and whether the company can stay competitive.



Steps in the Forecasting Process

There are six steps in the forecasting process.

1. Prepare and analyze historical financial statements and data.
2. Build the revenue forecast consistent with historical economy-wide evidence on growth.
3. Forecast the income statement using the appropriate economic drivers.
4. Forecast the balance sheet entries.
5. Forecast the investor funds into the balance sheet.
6. Calculate ROIC and FCF.

Additional issues include

• determining the effect of inflation,
• nonfinancial drivers, and 
• which costs are fixed and which are variable.

Corporate Finance - Earning Growth Rate and Dividend Growth Rate

 Calculating a Company's Implied Dividend Growth Rate

Recall that a company's ROE is equal to a company's earnings growth rate (g) divided by one minus a company's payout rate (p).

Example:Let's assume Newco's ROE is 10% and the company pays out roughly 20% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. What is Newco's expected growth rate in earnings?

Answer:g = ROE*(1 - p)
g = (10%)*(1 - 20%)
g = (10%)*(0.8)
g = 8%

Given an ROE of 10% and a dividend payout of 20%, Newco's expected growth rate in earnings is 8%.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/corporate-finance/dividend-growth-changing-dividend-policy-effects.asp#ixzz1yf57n9sb

Stocks with Low PE Multiples Outperform those with High Multiples. Investors are warned repeatedly about the dangers of very high-multiple stocks that are currently fashionable.

In 1934, Dodd and Graham argued that "value" wins over time for investors.  To find value, investors should look for stocks with low PE ratios and low prices relative to book value, P/BV.  Value is based on current realities rather than on projections of future growth.  This is consistent with the views that investors tend to be overconfident in their ability to project high earnings growth and thus overpay for "growth" stocks.

Stocks with Low PE Multiples Outperform those with High Multiples
One approach of stock selection is to look for companies with good growth prospects that have yet to be discovered by the stock market and thus are selling at relatively low earnings multiple.  This approach is often described as GARP, growth at a reasonable price.  

Earnings growth is so hard to forecast, it's far better to be in low-multiple stocks; if growth does materialize, both the earnings and the earnings multiple will likely increase, giving the investor a double benefit.  Buying a high-multiple stock whose earnings growth fails to materialize subjects investors to a double whammy.  Both the earnings and the multiple can fall.  Therefore investors are warned repeatedly about the dangers of very high-multiple stocks that are currently fashionable.

There is some evidence that a portfolio of stocks with relatively low earnings multiples (as well as low multiples of cash flow and of sales) produces above-average rates of return even after adjustment for risk.  This strategy was tested and had been confirmed by several researchers who showed that as the PE of a group of stocks increased, the return decreased.

This "PE effect," however, appears to vary over time - it is not dependable over every investment period.  And even if it does persist on average over a long period of time, one can never be sure whether the excess returns are due to increased risk or to market abnormalities.

And low PEs are often justified.  Companies on the verge of some financial disaster will frequently sell at very low multiples of reported earnings.  The low multiples might reflect not value but a profound concern about the viability of the companies.  

WHAT WARREN BUFFETT LOOKS FOR IN COMPANY GROWTH

An investor likes to see a company grow because, if profits grow, so do returns to the investor. The important thing for the investor, however, is that the company increases the returns to shareholders. A company that grows, at the expense of shareholder returns, is not generally a good investment. As Warren Buffett said in 1977:

‘Since businesses customarily add from year to year to their equity base, we find nothing particularly noteworthy in a management performance combining, say, a 10% increase in equity capital and a 5 % increase in earnings per share.’

WARREN BUFFETT AGAIN ON GROWTH

For Warren Buffett the important thing is not that a company grows (he points to the growth in airline business that has not resulted in any real benefits to stockholders) but that returns grow. In 1992, he said this:

‘Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing – in other words, only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long term market value.

In the case of a low-return business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor.’

Have an opinion on future growth - How can the company increase its earnings?

It is only rational to have an opinion on future growth.  Otherwise, how could you ever choose a stock?

When forming that opinion, back up quantitative information with qualitative factors.

For example, ask what management is doing to make a positive impact on earnings.

According to Peter Lynch, there are 5 basic ways a company can increase earnings:

• reduce costs; 
• raise prices; 
• expand into new markets;
• sell more of its products to the old markets; or
• revitalize, close or otherwise dispose of a losing operation.

When management is enacting growth-promoting activities, earnings may be temporarily flat.  They often soon take a giant step up.

Benjamin Graham saw a vulnerability in a high growth rate and in high returns on capital - the two normally go together.

So what's there to worry about in good earnings?  Exceptionally high earnings often attract rough competitors.  

The good part is that high earnings lure enthusiastic new investors, who often bid the share into the stratosphere.


Comment:
Buy good quality growth companies.
Assess the quality of the business and the management.
Then do the valuation.
These are the basics of the QVM or QMV approach to investing.

Understanding Earnings per Share and its Impact on Stock Price

Understanding Earnings per Share and its Impact on Stock Price
BY STOCK RESEARCH PRO • MAY 9TH, 2009

A company’s Earnings per Share (EPS) represents the portion of the company’s earnings (after deducting taxes and preferred share dividends) that is distributed to each share of the company’s common stock. The EPS measure gives investors a way to compare stocks in an “apples to apples” way.

The Importance of Earnings per Share in Evaluating Stocks
Fundamental stock evaluation revolves primarily around the earnings a company generates for its shareholders. Earnings, of course, represent what the company makes through its operations over any particular period of time. While smaller, newer companies may have negative earnings as they establish themselves, their stock prices will reflect future earnings expectations. Larger companies are judged mainly on the earnings measure. Decreased earnings for these companies are likely to negatively impact their stock prices.

The Earnings Cycle
Earnings are reported every calendar quarter with the process beginning shortly after the end of a fiscal quarter (a three month period).

Calculating Earnings per Share
The formula for earnings per share can be written as:

(Net Income – Preferred Stock Dividends) / Average Outstanding Shares

Because the number of shares outstanding can fluctuate over the reporting term, a more accurate way to perform the calculation is to use a weighted average number of shares. To simplify the calculation, though, the number used is often the ending number of shares for the period.

Investors can then divide the price per share by the earnings per share to arrive at the price to earnings ratio (P/E Ratio) or “multiple”. This ratio gives us an indication of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings for any particular company.

Basic v. Diluted Earnings per Share
In calculating the EPS, one of two methods can be used:
Basic Earnings per Share: Indicates how much of the company’s profit is allocated to each share of stock.
Diluted Earnings per Share: Fully reflects the impact the firm’s dilutive securities (e.g. convertible securities) may have on earnings per share.

Types of Earnings per Share
EPS can be further subdivided into various types, including:
Trailing EPS: Calculated based on numbers from the previous year
Current EPS: Includes numbers from the current year and projections
Forward EPS: Calculated based on projected numbers
Please note that most quoted EPS values are based on trailing numbers.

http://www.stockresearchpro.com/understanding-earnings-per-share-and-its-impact-on-stock-price

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/

Valuation based on EPS, EPS GR and PE

http://bigmoatstocks.com/bigmoat-spreadsheet/

Whose Growth rate to use in PEG calculations?

Whose Growth rate?

In computing PEG ratios, we are often faced with the question of whose growth rate we will use in estimating the PEG ratios.

If the number of firms in the sample is small, you could estimate expected growth for each firm yourself.

If the number of firms increases, you will have no choice but to use analyst estimates of expected growth for the firms. Will this expose your analyses to all of the biases in these estimates? Not necessarily. If the bias is uniform – for instance, analysts over estimate growth for all of the firms in the sector – you will still be able to make comparisons of PEG ratios across firms and draw reasonable conclusions.

http://zonecours.hec.ca/documents/A2009-1-1877347.ch18-earning-multiple(1).pdf

The biggest assumption and risk for investors: Earning Forecast

The biggest assumption in any valuation model is the earning forecast.

We have assumed that the earning forecasts by various analysts are good and accurate. This is the biggest risk investors have to face.

In general, investors can use consensus earning forecasts for computing the valuation, however, through experience, investors can identify good analysts from not so good ones, and hence, can be selective in using the earning forecast data.

Bear in mind that a way-off-earning forecast (especially over-bullish) could have disastrous effects on the stock price once the actual result is announced.

A good practice is to compare the forecast EPS growth rate with the averge EPS growth rate in the past three years and see whether the forecast EPS growth rate is in line with the historical numbers.

In short, what investors are looking for is an accurate EPS growth forecast.