myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Showing posts with label CSC Steel. Show all posts

Friday, 7 May 2010

A quick look at CSC Steel (7.5.2010)

A quick look at CSC Steel (7.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tdSgsmFJYX6roa6GAAjnlBg&output=html

Saturday, 23 August 2008

High-yield stocks more appealing now

22-08-2008: High-yield stocks more appealing now

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_e5adafa1-cb73c03a-df294000-75281632#

Stock markets worldwide have been, and will probably continue to be, buffeted by a myriad of uncertainties. Questions such as the health of the US economy and troubled financial markets appear unlikely to be answered anytime soon.

Investor confidence is depressed with the limited visibility. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index has fallen nearly 26% in the year-to-date. Many have sold down their equity holdings and are staying on the sidelines.

Typically, when uncertainties are high, investors lean towards more defensive and stable dividend-paying stocks. And there are a fair number of stocks that pay good dividends, offering yields that exceed bank deposit rates.

Inflationary pressures and demand slowdown will affect company earnings by varying degrees. However, there are still pockets of strength - and some of these companies are paying higher dividends, in line with their earnings growth. Good dividends, in turn, should lend support to their share prices.

CSC Steel has generous dividend policy

Steel companies, for instance, are enjoying robust earnings. CSC Steel Holdings (RM1.36) reported net profit totalling RM73.5 million in the first half of 2008 (1H08), compared with RM79.7 million for the whole of 2007. Sales and earnings are being driven by higher volume and selling prices for its flat steel products, primarily cold rolled coils (CRC).

Outlook for the steel sector remains upbeat for the next one to two years. Despite a slight weakening in prices, few expect a significant correction from prevailing levels - with costlier iron ore, coking coal and energy providing fairly firm floor support.

CSC has a policy to pay out half of annual earnings as dividends. Hence, based on our estimated earnings of 35.2 sen and 37.2 sen per share in 2008-2009, respectively, dividends should rise to about 18-19 sen per share in those two years. That will earn shareholders very attractive gross yields of 13.2%-14%.

CSC's shares are trading at only 3.9 times our estimated earnings in 2008 and well below its latest reported net tangible assets of RM1.94 per share. Such low valuations would limit the stock's downside risks. The stock will trade ex-entitlement for interim dividend of 6.5 sen per share on Aug 27.

Nestle ups dividends in 2008

Consumer companies tend to enjoy more resilient demand and steadier earnings. Hence, they tend to have stable and higher-than-market average dividend payouts. The current downtrend in commodity prices would also bode well for earnings going forward.

Despite rising raw material costs, Nestle's (RM27.25) 1H08 net profit grew nearly 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM176.1 million - on the back of demand increases and stronger exports. The company paid 61.19 sen per share special dividends earlier this year and has proposed another 50 sen per share interim dividends. The entitlement date was fixed for Aug 26. Assuming total dividends of 171.2 sen per share for 2008, shareholders will earn a net yield of 6.3%.

Amway maintains steady dividends

Direct selling company Amway (RM6.85) is also doing pretty well. Net profit was about 24% higher y-o-y in 1H08 at RM42.7 million. The company has been paying dividends very consistently over the years. With minimal capital expenditure required, Amway usually distributes the bulk of earnings back to shareholders.

Dividends are expected to total 61 sen per share in 2008. That translates into gross yield of 8.9%. Its shares are also trading at fairly decent valuations of roughly 12.9 and 12.1 times our estimated earnings of 53 sen and 56.8 sen per share in 2008-2009, respectively.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Friday, 7 May 2010

A quick look at CSC Steel (7.5.2010)

Saturday, 23 August 2008

High-yield stocks more appealing now

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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