Investing: When to bet the farm

Big payoffs often require big risks. 

• Bet wrong, and you could lose everything. 
• Do you have what it takes? 
• And how do you assess whether a dicey investment is worth it?

You want a big return? 

• How big a risk do you want to take to get it? 
• Gauging the risks associated with really promising investments, and 
• handling those risks appropriately, can change your life.

"It's never safe to take a risk, by definition." 

• Yet successful investors take major risks all the time. 
• They succeed because they do their research, can afford to lose the money they invest in high-risk schemes and are able to make up any losses they incur with other investments, which frequently involve complementary or counterbalancing risks.
• Whether considering an investment in a stock, a privately held startup or a hedge fund -- all high-risk propositions -- investors should start by digging through the details of the business case to figure out how the return on investment is likely to be generated. 
• How big a payoff might the investment produce? 
• And how likely is success?
• Successful investors look hard at the downside as well. 
• What would the price of failure be? 
• And how likely is that?

Just jump in and take a risk

• And what about all the outcomes in between?
• Successful investors tend to have a broad view, taking the downside into account with the upside. 
• They plan on an outcome somewhere in the middle of the range of possibilities. That is their "expected return."
• "An expected return is an average. It's the probability of all of the outcomes."

Risk assessment gets pretty sophisticated at risk-oriented hedge funds.

• These funds combine and counterbalance risks to put together exotic investment strategies that increase an investor's upside while controlling the downside -- all for a price. 
• But the basics are just common sense.

Our own personalities add complexity to high-risk situations.

• There are risks associated with overly emotional reactions.
• "What you don't want to happen is for people to get emotional with the market."
• The more emotional we get, the more likely it is we will make a mistake.
• A company's business prospects can be measured and evaluated statistically, but there is no easy measure for mood swings. 
• Before making any moves, people contemplating high-risk investments should come to grips with their emotional makeup and know how they are likely to react.

Three ways to analyze a company

• (Quantitative, Qualitative and Technical Analysis)
• Where risk is high, the investor needs to analyze his or her life situation.

Is financial risk really risky?

• "There are times in your life when it's appropriate to take different levels of risk."
• Age is a big factor. Age changes us in a lot of ways. We gain emotional maturity. At the same time, the nature of our financial obligations changes, and the time horizon for risk gets tighter.
• "Let's say you're young, in your mid-20s,"  "If you take a big risk and something goes wrong, you have time to recover." 
• On the other hand, the middle-aged homeowner probably needs a bigger safety net, especially if there are kids who need braces or there are college costs to consider.
• Even a high-risk investment can be a very positive part of a portfolio when it's appropriate to a person's situation and is well-managed."In investing and in life, you have to look at everything on a risk-and-reward basis.  Volatility is not the end of the world."

Risk lesson from owning the business

• He left the investment firm to start his own firm. 
• He knew most new businesses fail, but he had a lot of confidence in his own investment skills. If the business went under, he reasoned, he could always get a job with another firm.
• "Careers are actually the easiest place to take risks, as long as you don't burn your bridges." Younger investors, particularly, should be ready to gamble with their careers. 
• But in the same breath he cautions as professional investors often do: Risk only as much as you can afford to lose, he says.

The 5 steps of the Fat-Pitch Strategy

The fat-pitch strategy is based on a baseball analogy.

Instead of watching borderline pitches go by, batters often swing away because they fear being called out on strikes.

Similarly, many investors - instead of waiting for fantastic investment opportunities (fat pitches) - choose to buy stocks that they may not be too enthusiastic about, out of fear of being left behind by the market (FOMO = Fear of Missing Out).

THERE ARE NO CALLED STRIKES IN INVESTING.

Individual investors often have an edge over professionals because individuals are not required to be fully invested at all times.  

Thus, they can patiently wait for fat pitches to come along without being worried about being called out.



The FIVE steps of the fat-pitch approach to stock investing are:

1.  Look for wide-moat companies.
2.  Always have a margin of safety.
3.  Don't be afraid to hold cash.
4.  Don't be afraid to hold relatively few stocks.
5.  Don't trade very often.

Wide Moat Companies: Fat Pitch Approach and Low Turnover of Portfolio.

Fat Pitch method.

Great companies (wide-moat) selling at a discount are rare. So when you find one, you should pounce.

Over the years, a wide-moat company will generate returns on capital higher than its cost of capital, creating value for shareholders.

 This shareholder value translates into a higher stock price over time.




Move In and Out of Wide-Moat Stocks

IF YOU SELL AFTER MAKING A SMALL PROFIT, you might not get another chance to buy the stock, or a similar high-quality stock, for a long time.

For this reason, it is irrational to quickly move in and out of wide-moat stocks and incur transactions costs ( and also capital gain taxes in some countries).

 Your results after trading expenses (and taxes), likely won't be any better and may be worse.




Low Turnover

That is why many of the great long-term investors display low turnover in their portfolios.

 They have learned to LET THEIR WINNERS RUN AND TO THINK LIKE OWNERS, NOT TRADERS.

Waiting for a Fat Pitch

Waiting for a Fat Pitch 

I call investing the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! US Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.

— Warren Buffett, quoted in FORBES magazine

 A policy of portfolio diversification is the logical outcome of a belief in efficient markets. As Keynes noted, it is “false to believe that one form of investment involves taking a view and that another does not. Every investment means committing oneself to one particular side of the market. ”A strategy of extreme diversification is, at its core, a concession by the investor that stock - picking is futile for that particular individual — that, indeed, one stock is as good as another. It is a candid admission that the market knows more than that person.

Keynes rejected the notion that markets always priced securities correctly based on publicly available information and that, therefore, it was pointless to search for potential stunners. His view was much more pragmatic, and was grounded in his experience as an investor and financial theorist: Keynes believed that financial exchanges — although perhaps usually efficient — were not always efficient. On occasions, the stock market generates prices that veer radically from underlying value — Mr. Market is perhaps in the throes of a particularly acute bipolar episode — and it is at these times that the intelligent investor should buy in quantity. 

The poet Paul Valery once asked Albert Einstein if he kept a notebook to record his ideas — Einstein is said to have replied,

“ Oh, that’s not necessary — it’s so seldom I have one. ”

Similarly, opportunities to buy quality stocks at a material discount to fundamental value are infrequent.  As stock investor and author Philip Fisher commented:

. . .practical investors usually learn their problem is finding enough outstanding investments, rather than choosing among too many. .. Usually a very long list of securities is not a sign of the brilliant investor, but of one who is unsure of himself. 

Agreeing that “ ultra - favorites”are usually thin on the ground, Keynes noted that

“ there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence. ” 

When the market does offer a security at a substantial discount to its intrinsic worth the investor should, therefore, acquire meaningful amounts of that stock. 

Charlie Munger opts for a metaphor close to his heart when explaining Berkshire Hathaway ’ s policy of “loading up ”on mispriced bets:

Playing poker in the Army and as a young lawyer honed my business skills. What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don’t get a big edge often. 

Opportunity comes, but it doesn’t come often, so seize it when it does come.

Good investment opportunities are too scarce to be parsimonious with, Buffett often reminds his acolytes — when a stunner presents itself, the value investor should not be afraid to back his or her judgment with relatively large capital outlays. 



Ref:  Keynes and the Market

Where to look for Investment Opportunities

Where to find Investment Opportunities

Sometimes, there are so many value investments available that the only constraint on the investor is a lack of funds. 

Most times, however, investors find it difficult to find value investment opportunities. Investors can spend a lot of time reading through financial reports, research reports, and other financial news and end up finding nothing but fairly valued opportunities. 

Therefore, it is important that the investor look in the right places.

A few of the places for finding investment opportunities include 

• the new-low lists, 
• the largest percentage-decliners lists which are published by major news sources, and also,
• companies whose dividends have been cut or eliminated can also be unduly punished by the market, leaving investment opportunities. 

Of course, just because a stock shows up on one of these lists does not make it a buy; one still has to go through the valuation process in order to determine whether it trades at a discount to its fair value.

Is the management buying or selling the company's stock?

Investors should look at what management is doing with respect to the company's stock. 

Nobody knows the business as well as management does, and so if management is buying that is often a good sign for the stock.

Why? Why?  Why has a stock been performing poorly?

Investors are also encouraged to consider why a stock has been performing poorly (and therefore may make for a good investment). 

If an investor can pinpoint this reason, he can be more comfortable that he may have found value. 

If this reason cannot be found, it is possible that the investor is missing some information which the market knows (important lawsuit pending, competitor coming out with similar product etc.).

Read also:

• 
  
• Your investments using Mutual Funds or Money Managers
• Trading and portfolio management from a value investing point of view
• Value Investor's Opportunities in Distressed Securities
• Value Investing Opportunities in the Banking Sector
• Look at FUNDAMENTALS and POTENTIAL CATALYSTS when making investment decisions
• Where to look for Investment Opportunities
• Business value cannot be precisely determined. Make use of ranges of values
• Central elements to a Value Investing Philosophy
• The Philosophy of Value Investing and Why It Works
• Philosophy of value investing. Need to have clear strategies too
• How Wall Streets can create investment fads? The Junk Bond Market of mid-1980s
• Understanding these changes in the investment world allows investors to earn superior returns
• What's good for Wall Street is not necessarily good for investors
• Speculators, Investors and Market Fluctuations

Bet Big when the Opportunity Presents.

It is not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time.
But it is given to human being who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a mis-priced bet - that they can occasionally find one.
The wise ones bet heavily when the world offer them that opportunity.
They bet big when they have the odds.
And the rest of the time, they don't.
It is just that simple.

Quote:  Charlie Munger

Investing, the greatest business in the world.

Enhance Your Investing Returns By Not Swinging At Every Pitch

Summary

Building a core concentrated portfolio of 3-5 stocks is very advantageous over buying 20-30 individual stocks.

Not swinging at every investing idea will not only enhance returns but it will let you focus on building positions in your bests ideas.

Some of the richest investors in the past have gotten rich by putting all of their eggs in one basket or in 3-5 small baskets.

"I call investing the greatest business in the world, because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it". -Warren Buffett

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3516986-enhance-your-investing-returns-by-not-swinging-at-every-pitch

Take risks (but protect yourself) - Peter Lim

Image Credit: futbolfinanzas.com

Much of Lim’s wealth was the product of an unlikely venture. His single investment of US$10 millionin Wilmar, an Indonesian palm oil startup, seemed far from promising in the late 90s, when Indonesia was facing political and social unrest. At the time, the currency fell from 2,500 to 16,000 rupiah against the US dollar. But against all odds, Wilmar began to pick up the pieces and Lim’s faith in the company paid off — in 2010, he cashed out his shares for US$1.5 billion.

“My Indonesian partner was asking me the other day: ‘How the hell did we make so much money?’

Up to a point after people tell you a story and a vision, don’t write it off. Sometimes it comes true. You just make sure that if it doesn’t come true, you don’t get hurt too much.”

(Source: The Business Times, AsiaOne News)

 https://sg.news.yahoo.com/8-wise-lessons-wealth-singapore-053251357.html

Comments:

1998. US$10 million
2010. US$1,500 million (1.5 billion)
Period 12 years

Compound Annual Growth Rate:
51.82%. (WoW.  )


2015.  US$ 3,000 million (3 billion). His present net worth.
CAGR from 2010 to 2015.  14.87%

CAGR from 1998 to 2015.  39.87%


He bought Wilmar in 1997/1998.
It was at the time of the Asian Financial Crisis.
Prices of stocks were very low.
Indonesian currency and regional currencies were at historical lows compared to US dollars and Singapore dollars.
He made a big investment.  (Fat pitch when the opportunity came.)
He was in the position to make this investment and he took the risk, knowing his downside was protected. (My analysis.) (Luck = preparation + ability to seize opportunity when this presents)
He stayed with the company long term (12 years).
He cashed out in 2010. (Perfect timing or pricing.  How did he do this?)
Since 2010, he has grown his wealth around 15% per year, doubling in 5 years.

There are many lessons one can learn from this investing behaviour of Peter Lim (almost sounds like Peter Lynch).  :-)



For references.
CAGR
61.41%      (Land - short term frenzyl)
8.14%        (Property capital appreciation)
9.75%        (Plantation capital appreciation)
17.79%       (Land - long term)
9.65%         (Property Total Return)
10.61%       (Plantation Total Return)
15%+          (Equity)
Unlimited     (Business)

Making investing enjoyable, understandable and profitable… A Simple and Obvious Approach

Making investing enjoyable, understandable and profitable…

Is it not true, that the really big fortunes from common stocks have been garnered by those 

• who made a substantial commitment in the early years of a company in whose future they had great confidence and who held their original shares unwaveringly while they increased 10-fold or 100-fold or more in value?

The answer is "Yes."

Investing heavily in your best ideas

While this may be a scary choice to make – concentrating your investments in a few stocks – that is what the young Buffett was doing in 1960s.

Sanborn, for instance, formed about 35% of Buffett’s portfolio in 1960. Plus it was a small company with an illiquid stock (just 105,000 shares outstanding).

Despite these attributes that can scare any investor, Buffett saw a great opportunity and invested heavily in Sanborn. He later did the same thing with See’s Candy in the 1970s.

Let’s me be clear here. I am not suggesting that you put 30-40% of your money in any one stock or investment. However, if you really believe in an idea, you may be willing to take it to around 10-15% of your portfolio.

Too many people over-diversify – allocating the same amount of money to their best ideas as to their worst ones. But then, as they say, “Concentrate to grow your wealth and diversify to preserve it.

So while you may buy a number of stocks for your portfolio, it pays in the long run to put most of your money in your best ideas.

http://www.safalniveshak.com/wit-wisdom-warren-part4/

Investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like. One must have the means, the judgement and the courage to take advantage of it. Excitement is guaranteed.

Invest like Buffett - The Limited 20 Holes Punch Card of His Investing (The Buffett Way)

When opportunity comes within your strike zone/buying zone ONLY then invest(Science Of hitting-Ted Williams)

Historical PE ratio & S&P 500

"Go for the jugular"

When the opportunity presents itself, buy enough to make a real difference to your wealth.  Don't buy piddling amounts.  "Go for the jugular."

There are times when the stock markets are selling at a steep discount.  At such times, Buffett says he feels like an oversexed guy in a whorehouse, and his main complaint is that he doesn't have ENOUGH money to buy ALL the bargains he can see.  At other times, when he sees a stock he really likes (like Coke), he'll simply buy as much as he can.

 "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful."  -  Mae West

The power of conviction

Buffett wrote to his investors and explained that stock pickers ''have to work extremely hard to find just a few attractive investment situations'', and because such opportunities are rare, why just nibble at them?

Buffett was no nibbler; he put 40 per cent of his partnership's assets into Amex because there was ''an extremely high probability that our facts and reasoning are correct, with a very low probability that anything could drastically change the underlying value of the investment''. His attitude paid off - within a year the stock price rose more than 40 per cent and compounded at high rates thereafter.

So-called efficient markets suffer from regular outbreaks of inefficiency. Over the past two years, News Corp, Cochlear, QBE Insurance and Cabcharge have all offered attractive investment opportunities due to temporary factors. Buffett's three simple rules show us how to take advantage of them.

Nathan Bell is the research director at Intelligent Investor, intelligent investor.com.au. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/stay-cool-learn-from-the-master-20120518-1yvjs.html#ixzz1vpsGG5dl

So-called efficient markets suffer from regular outbreaks of inefficiency.

Stay cool; learn from the master

Nathan Bell

May 19, 2012

Tough hand ... Warren Buffett made a bad situation work. Photo: AP

In 1963, American Express, the world's largest credit-card company, was involved in a huge financial scandal. The company, previously synonymous with integrity and trust, became wrapped up in a $175 million fraud.

As news of the scandal broke, the company's share price halved. Investors were caught up in a huge panic that, they believed, threatened the company.

After wearing out some shoe leather, an unknown 33-year-old fund manager came to the opposite view. Warren Buffett poured most of his cash into this single stock and made a killing.

Advertisement: Story continues below

Although Amex had a well-known banking division, the majority of its profits came from its traveller's cheque and credit-card divisions.

Nobody paid much attention to a fourth subsidiary - warehousing operations - that assessed the value of a company's inventories. The certificates issued could then be used as bank collateral.

The scam was based on a simple fact: when salad oil was poured on water, it rose to the top and formed a film. By filling tanks with water then adding a little salad oil, Anthony de Angelis, a commodities trader, fooled Amex into thinking the value of what he owned was $175 million in soy-based oil rather than contaminated, worthless water.

De Angelis may have been a crook but he was not without ambition. Instead of making his way to Rio with a few million in the bank, he used the proceeds of the scam to buy soybean-oil futures, hoping to corner the market. Problems only began when a few inquisitive souls began to wonder how the oil supposedly stored in de Angelis's tanks contained more soybeans than the output of the entire industry.

In November 1963, de Angelis and his company, the Allied Crude Vegetable Oil Refining Corporation, filed for bankruptcy. Amex was now on the hook for millions. The stock plummeted but Buffett kept his cool and followed three simple processes from which all investors can learn.

Independent research is vital

Buffett reasoned that the cheque and credit-card businesses were worth enormous amounts of money before the scandal. So why should the actions of an unrelated entity change the value of the entire business after it?

Buffett set out to establish whether the scandal really would affect the entire business. ''The traveller's-cheque business had 60 per cent market share around the world, while selling cheques at a higher price than [the other] banks,'' Buffett explained. And the credit-card business was also a distinct market leader. It enjoyed the highest customer-retention rate and was able to raise prices every year.

After conducting his own research, Buffett noticed customers hadn't stopped using Amex products and, in all likelihood, the brand would survive unharmed.

Make uncertainty work

No one knew the size of the payout that Amex would have to make to settle the scandal, a nasty and uncertain fact that caused most investors to simply flee.

Buffett realised that regardless of the extent of the litigation payout, the size of the company's market share would be unchanged. ''I just took the attitude that they had declared a large dividend, sent it out and it had gotten lost in the mail,'' Buffett explained. ''Would that have caused panic - somebody else gets your dividend but you don't?''

American Express made money not from tangible accounting numbers, Buffett understood, but from intangible qualities, such as trust and reliability. And these would remain intact despite the scandal.

Uncertainty tends to cause most investors to sell first and ask questions later. Buffett knew that was how the opportunity arose.

The power of conviction

Buffett wrote to his investors and explained that stock pickers ''have to work extremely hard to find just a few attractive investment situations'', and because such opportunities are rare, why just nibble at them?

Buffett was no nibbler; he put 40 per cent of his partnership's assets into Amex because there was ''an extremely high probability that our facts and reasoning are correct, with a very low probability that anything could drastically change the underlying value of the investment''. His attitude paid off - within a year the stock price rose more than 40 per cent and compounded at high rates thereafter.

So-called efficient markets suffer from regular outbreaks of inefficiency. Over the past two years, News Corp, Cochlear, QBE Insurance and Cabcharge have all offered attractive investment opportunities due to temporary factors. Buffett's three simple rules show us how to take advantage of them.

Nathan Bell is the research director at Intelligent Investor, intelligent investor.com.au. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/stay-cool-learn-from-the-master-20120518-1yvjs.html#ixzz1vprH5LDJ

Warren Buffett: Game Pressure

"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"

Source: The Tao of Warren Buffett, by Mary Buffett and David Clark, via Engineeringnews.com

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-quotes-on-investing-2010-8?op=1#ixzz1oXGjSl1y

Warren Buffett: The right moment to strike

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."


Source: Businessweek, 1999


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-quotes-on-investing-2010-8#the-right-moment-to-strike-14#ixzz1oXBp6ldD

Waiting for the Right Pitch

For a value investor a pitch must not only be in the strike zone, it must be in his "sweet spot."  Results will be best when the investor is not pressured to invest prematurely.  There may be times when the investor does not lift the bat from his shoulder, the cheapest security in an overvalued market may still be overvalued.  You wouldn't want to settle for an investment offering a safe 10 percent return if you thought it very likely that another offering an equally safe 15 percent return would soon materialize.

An investment must be purchased at a discount from underlying worth.  This makes it a good absolute value.  Being a good absolute value alone, however, is not sufficient for investors must choose only the best absolute values among those that are currently available.  A stock trading at one-half of the underlying value may be attractive, but another trading at one-fourth of its worth is the better bargain.  This dual discipline compounds the difficulty of the investment task for value investors compared with most others.

Value investors continually compare potential new investments with their current holdings in order to ensure that they own only the most undervalued opportunities available.  Investors should never be afraid to reexamine current holdings as new opportunities appear, even if that means realizing losses on the sale of current holdings.  In other words, no investment should be considered sacred when a better one comes along.

Sometimes dozens of good pitches are thrown consecutively to a value investor. In panicky markets, for example, the number of undervalued securities increases and the degree of undervaluation also grows. In buoyant markets, by contrast, both the number of undervalued securities and their degree of undervaluation declines. When attractive opportunities are plentiful, value investors are able to sift carefully through all the bargains for the ones they find most attractive. When attractive opportunities are scarce, however, investors mus t exhibit great self-discipline in order to maintain the integrity of the valuation process and limit the price paid. Above all, investors must always avoid swinging at bad pitches.

Waiting for the Fat Pitch

How do I make sure I don't overpay for something?

The answer:  If the pitcher doesn't throw one right down the middle, you don't have to swing the bat.  Unlike in baseball, there is no penalty for being patient in investing.

You should spend a fair amount of time placing a value on a stock before you even think about buying it, and only buy stocks that you are confident are undervalued.

Learning how to value  a stock takes work, but it can be done.

Buffett (1997): "All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit quiet in a room alone."

Warren Buffett's 1996 letter to shareholders provided advice to investors who want to build their own portfolios. Let us now proceed to the letter from the year 1997 and see what investing gems lie hidden in it.

A mathematician’s wisdom true to investing

"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit quiet in a room alone", said the noted mathematician Blaise Pascal. These words ring true in the world of investing if not anywhere else. As much as the fundamentals of the company are important while making investment decisions, key consideration has to be given to the price as well. For even the best of businesses bought at expensive valuations are not likely to lead to attractive returns.

This is where discipline plays a key role. In an environment where prices are rising and each man and his aunt is making money, it is very difficult to remain sane especially with regards to valuations. As the master himself admits that although it is not possible to predict when prices will come down and to what extent, one can do a world of good to one's investment returns if good businesses are bought at decent prices. In fact, the master is believed to have waited as much as few decades for some of his investments to come down at valuations that he was comfortable with and the ones that he believed incorporated a sufficient margin of safety.

What’s your margin of safety?

So, what is the master preaching?

In his 1997 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett has compared this predicament to a game of baseball and this is what he has to say on the issue:

Though we are delighted with what we own, we are not pleased with our prospects for committing incoming funds. Prices are high for both businesses and stocks. That does not mean that the prices of either will fall – we have absolutely no view on that matter – but it does mean that we get relatively little in prospective earnings when we commit fresh money.”

He further states, “Under these circumstances, we try to exert a Ted Williams kind of discipline. In his book ‘The Science of Hitting’, Ted explains that he carved the strike zone into 77 cells, each the size of a baseball. Swinging only at balls in his ‘best’ cell, he knew, would allow him to bat .400; reaching for balls in his ‘worst’ spot, the low outside corner of the strike zone, would reduce him to .230. In other words, waiting for the fat pitch would mean a trip to the Hall of Fame; swinging indiscriminately would mean a ticket to the minors.”

Discipline in investing is the key

Finally, he asserts, “If they are in the strike zone at all, the business ‘pitches’ we now see are just catching the lower outside corner. If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today's balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today. Unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone; nevertheless, just standing there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun.”