"Warren Buffett" of Malaysia

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tkb0enVog-PjOHzgbMUXi_w&output=html


The returns from iCap's winning transactions were truly fantastic. 

Are we looking at a budding "Warren Buffett" equivalent?

Wonder the 'cow' will jump over the moon?

iCap completed transactions - The Winners

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tvUBvGFsmHcpydgvtogKM9Q&output=html

Analysing the Winners:

Total = 140 transactions

Holding Periods

less than 1 year
64 transactions
Holding Period Return less than 15% = 14
Holding Period Return more than 15% = 50

exceeding 1 year
29 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 5
CAGR more than 15% = 24

exceeding 2 year
17 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 8
CAGR more than 15% = 9

exceeding 3 year
5 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 3
CAGR more than 15% = 2

exceeding 4 year
8 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 8
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 5 year
3 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 1
CAGR more than 15% = 2

exceeding 6 year
3 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 3
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 7 year
4 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 4
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 8 year
3 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 3
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 9 year
2 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 2
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 10 year
0 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 0
CAGR more than 15% = 0

exceeding 11 year
2 transactions
CAGR less than 15% = 0
CAGR more than 15% = 2

Findings:

Of the 140 transactions:

• 51 (36%) have a return (HPR or CAGR) of less than 15% and
• an amazing 89 (64%) have a return (HPR or CAGR) of more than 15%

Of those transactions giving more than 15% HPR or CAGR, 93% ( 83/89) were stocks held for less than 3 years:

• 50 of the stocks were held for less than 1 year
• 24 of the stocks were held for more than 1 year but less than 2 years
• 9 stock were held for more than 2 years but less than 3 years.

Take Home Message:

1.  Of 4 stocks selected, 3 were winners and 1 was a loser.

 2.  Of the 3 winners:

• 1 gives a CAGR of less than 15% and
• an amazing 2 give a CAGR of greater than 15%.

 3.  Of 4 stocks selected:

• 1 faltered,
• 1 did fairly alright and
• 2 did exceptionally well.

Completed Transactions of iCap (1989 to 9.7.2009)

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tQvTWgP7osgpwBxXVtVyy_g&output=html

There were 192 completed transactions over the period 1989 to 9th July, 2009.

There were 140 winners (73%) and 52 losers (27%). 
The ratio of winners to losers is 2.7 to 1.

Therefore, we can infer that for every 4 stocks picked by iCap (also known as ttb), 3 will be winners and 1 will be a loser.  :- ))  or  :- ((


Of these 192 transactions:
80 (42%) were sold within the 12 months holding period.
112 (58%) were sold after a holding period of more than 12 months.

Of the 140 winners:
64 (46%) were sold within the 12 months holding period.
76 (54%) were sold after a holding period of more than 12 months. 

Of the 52 losers:
16 (31%) were sold within the 12 months holding period.
36 (69%) were sold after a holding period of more than 12 months.


Ref:  http://icapital.biz/icapital2/other/completedtranx_en.pdf