Sunday, 28 April 2024

What you look for in the financial statements of those great businesses with durable competitive advantage

 



Warren Buffettโ€™s Financial Statement Rules of Thumb:
๐Ÿ’ฐ INCOME STATEMENT:
1: Gross Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Gross Profit / Revenue
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 40% or higher
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Signals the company isnโ€™t competing on price.
2: SG&A Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: SG&A Expense / Gross Profit
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 30% or lower
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Wide-moat companies donโ€™t need to spend a lot on overhead to operate.
3: R&D Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: R&D Expense / Gross Profit
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 30% or lower
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: R&D expenses don't always create value for shareholders.
4: Depreciation Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Depreciation / Gross Profit
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 10% or lower
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Buffett doesn't like businesses that need to invest in depreciating assets to maintain their competitive advantage.
5: Interest Expense Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Interest Expense / Operating Income
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 15% or lower
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great businesses donโ€™t need debt to finance themselves.
6: Income Tax Expenses
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Taxes Paid / Pre-Tax Income
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: Current Corporate Tax Rate
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great businesses are so profitable that they are forced to pay their full tax load.
7: Net Margin (Profit Margin)
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Net Income / Sales
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: 20% or higher
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies convert 20% or more of their revenue into net income.
8: Earnings Per Share Growth
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Year 2 EPS / Year 1 EPS
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: Positive & Growing
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies increase profits every year.
โš– BALANCE SHEET:
9: Cash & Debt
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Cash > Debt
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: More cash than debt
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies don't need debt to fund themselves.
10: Cash & Debt
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Cash > Debt
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: More cash than debt
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies generate lots of cash without needing much debt.
11: Adjusted Debt to Equity
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Total Liabilities / Shareholder Equity + Treasury Stock
๐Ÿ‘ Rule : < 0.80
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies finance themselves with equity.
12: Preferred Stock
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: None
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies don't need to fund themselves with preferred stock.
13: Retained Earnings
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Year 1 / Year 2
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: Consistent growth
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies grow retained earnings each year.
14: Treasury Stock
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: Exists
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies repurchase their stock.
๐Ÿ’ธ CASH FLOW STATEMENT:
15: Capex Margin
๐Ÿงฎ Equation: Capex / Net Income
๐Ÿ‘ Rule: <25%
๐Ÿค” Buffett's Logic: Great companies don't need much equipment to generate profits.
Caveats:
1๏ธโƒฃ There are plenty of exceptions to these rules.
2๏ธโƒฃ CONSISTENCY IS KEY!

What "rules of thumb" do you use?

https://www.facebook.com/groups/53286054621/?hoisted_section_header_type=recently_seen&multi_permalinks=10163480421914622

"Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements" By Mary Buffett

Friday, 26 April 2024

Monday, 22 April 2024

Comparing Dutch Lady and Farm Fresh

 



















Period 2019 to 2023

Revenue

Farm Fresh grew revenue from 164m to 636m.

Dutch Lady grew revenue from 1067m to 1443m

Net Earnings

Farm Fresh grew net earnings from 27.4m to 50.1m

Dutch Lady dropped its net earnings from 103m to 72m

Gross Margin

Farm Fresh's GPM for 2023 was 23.73% (average of last 5 Years GPM was 26.98%)

Dutch Lady's GPM for 2023 was 29.66% (average of last 5 Years GPM was 32.38%)

Net Profit Margin

Farm Fresh's NPM for 2023 was 7.95% (average of last 5 Years NPM was 11.05%)

Dutch Lady's NPM for 2023 was 4.99% (average of last 5 Years NPM was 9.32%)


ROE, ROA, P/B and P/E

Farm Fresh  ROE 7.87%  ROA 4.65%  P/B 4.33 P/E 55.03

Dutch Lady ROE 16.47% ROA 7.60% P/B 4.81 P/E 29.19


Free Cash Flow

Farm Fresh  FCF for 2023 was -174.6m

Dutch Lady FCF for 2023 was 14.3m


Market Capitalisation

Farm Fresh @1.48 per share   Market Cap 2,755.6m

Dutch Lady @32.48 per share  Market Cap  2,101.6m

Sunday, 21 April 2024

Detecting Frauds. When to Sell. Avoiding Value Traps.

 



Filter out noise and focus on information that are important for investing.



VALUE TRAPS

How do you decide whether it is a value trap or not?

Value traps are statistically very cheap and very alluring.

First question to ask:  โ€œWhy is God so kind on you that you are the only one who has this tremendous insight that this stock is cheap and all the other people who are very active, smart and intelligent in the market are ignoring this company?โ€

Is there an embedded growth optionality in the company? Can the company have a growth phase? Can the company come out with some new product offering which can introduce growth? 

This is a dynamic exercise.  You will need to revisit the hypothesis every now and again, at intervals. 

Two characteristics of value traps are:

  • (1)  They typically donโ€™t tend to grow more than the nominal GDP
  • (2)  They cannot reinvest their cash flow.

So the question you should ask is what is the catalyst which will change this and allow them to reinvest the capital which they are throwing off?  In its absence, you have a classic example where the company had great cash flows and no catalyst.  

Your sole focus of whether to participate in a seemingly value trap could be you calling out the catalyst that will catapult it out of this situation.