Monday 19 July 2010

British financier Anthony Ward behind £658m cocoa trade, buying all Europe's cocoa

Mystery trader buys all Europe's cocoa
Even Willy Wonka might struggle to use this much chocolate. Yesterday, somebody bought 241,000 tonnes of cocoa beans.


A farmer shows cocoa beans at his farm outside Punta Gorda, Belize
Cocoa futures for July delivery jumped 1.5pc on the Liffe exchange to more than £2,588 this week Photo: Reuters
The purchase was enough to move the entire global cocoa market, sending the price to the highest level since 1977, and triggering rumours and intrigue in the City.
It is unclear which person, or group of traders, was behind the deal, but it was the largest single cocoa trade for 14 years.
The cocoa beans, which are sitting in warehouses either in The Netherlands, Hamburg, or closer to home in London, Liverpool or Humberside is equivalent to the entire supply of the commodity in Europe, and would fill more than five Titanics. They are worth £658 million.
Analysts said it was very unlikely that a chocolate company, such as Nestle or Kraft, or even their suppliers, would buy such a huge order in one go and that is was probable that one or a number of speculators, possibly hedge funds, had attempted to corner the market. By doing this, they would have control of the entire supply in Europe, forcing the price yet higher.
Eugen Weinberg, an analyst with Commerzbank, said: “For one buyer it would likely be a little bit too large. It would be a crazy number. That said, if you’re cornering the market ...”
“If it looks like cornering, feels like cornering and the price difference between Europe and the US is so large, it probably is cornering.”
“There is some play taking place. No one really knows what is going on.”
Andreas Christiansen, president of the German Cocoa Trade Association, said the “hefty” price move was “a mirror of what can be done if people control the physical stock”.
Cocoa prices, which had been on the rise this year, rose 0.7 per cent yesterday, to £2,732 per metric ton. By contrast, cocoa being traded on the US exchange fell.
This is the highest price for cocoa in Europe since 1977, and comes after a series of weak harvests in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the main areas where the crop is grown. Fears of floods in the Ivory Coast have sent prices even higher, as speculators have bet on another poor harvest, and a shortage of supply.
At the same time demand is on the increase, especially as China and India develop an ever sweeter tooth.
Cocoa prices have more than doubled since 2007, forcing chocolate makers to raise prices and in some cases to change recipes to use less cocoa.
Laurent Pipitone, senior statistician at the International Cocoa Organisation in London, said: “In the past two years, all companies have increased prices."
There are fears that the extraordinary activity on the commodity markets will filter down to higher prices on the shop shelves for the nation's favourite chocolate bars, even milk chocolate, which has only 25 per cent cocoa content.
The trade took place on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (Liffe), a market which trades contracts in commodities such as corn, wheat, sugar, coffee and cocoa.
Most of these contracts are "options" or "futures" giving a trader the right to buy these commodities at a certain price at a certain time in the future. What made yesterday's trade so unusual was that the mystery buyer or buyers took physical delivery of the commodity.
The beans will be stored in one of Liffe's warehouses in Amsterdam, Antwerp, Bremen, Felixstowe, Hamburg, Humberside, Le Havre, Liverpool, London, Rotterdam, or Teesside.
There have been mounting worries that speculators have been distorting the cocoa market in recent weeks, with brokers writing a letter of protest to Liffe earlier this month.
Barbara Crowther, a spokesman at the Fairtrade Foundation, said that no farmers in West Africa would benefit from the higher prices. She said: "This speculation only serves to increase volatility and uncertainty. Part of the problems in rent years have been the lack of investment in improving cocoa farms. But the farmers have already been paid a set price – none of this money will filter down to them."
Update: British financier Anthony Ward behind £658m cocoa trade


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British financier Anthony Ward behind £658m cocoa trade
A British financier is behind a £658 million cocoa trade which single-handedly moved the global cocoa market.



Anthony Ward, 50, bought 241,000 tons of cocoa beans and now owns enough to manufacture 5.3 billion quarter-pound chocolate bars.
Mr Ward, who is worth around £36 million, holds so much of the market he could force manufacturers to raise the price of Britain's favourite chocolate bars.
The transaction, the largest single cocoa trade in 14 years, was carried out last Friday by Armajaro Holdings, a hedge fund co-founded by Mr Ward.
The businessman began his career as a motorcycle dispatch rider before becoming a commodities trader specialising in cocoa and coffee.
The former Chairman of the European Cocoa Association has amassed up to 15 per cent of the word's cocoa stocks in the last ten years.
Mr Ward, who has an annual director's salary of £3.4 million, lives in Mayfair in London with his wife Carolyn. Outside of work he is known to be a passionate rally driver and lover of fine food and wines.
The cocoa beans from his latest trade are expected to be kept in warehouses in The Netherlands, Hamburg, London, Liverpool or Humberside and are the equivalent of the entire supply of the commodity in Europe.
Cocoa prices rose by 0.7 per cent as a result of the trade to £2,732 per metric tonne – the highest price for cocoa in Europe since 1977. It follows a series of weak harvests in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the main areas where the crop is grown.
In 2002 Mr Ward made £40 million in two months after making a similar deal. He bought 204,000 tones of cocoa when West Africa was experiencing poor harvests and political instability in the equatorial area.
He then watched the price of cocoa increase from £1,400 a ton to £1,600 a ton.
Cocoa prices have more than doubled since 2007, following increased demand particularly from China and India, forcing chocolate makers to raise prices and in some cases to change recipes to use less cocoa.
Mr Ward was not available for comment.

UK: Are house prices set to fall again?

Are house prices set to fall again?

Hearts would have skipped a beat last week on reports that by 2015 there is a good chance that homes will be worth less than they were in 2007.

Published: 3:40PM BST 16 Jul 2010

Graph of house prices
Are house prices set to fall again?


PricewaterhouseCoopers said there was a 70pc chance that British house prices would be below peak 2007 levels in 2015 in real terms, despite a continued expected recovery in prices in cash terms – in other words any rise in property prices won't keep pace with inflation.

Even in 2020, after five years of predicted relatively steady growth, the accountants warned there is a 50pc chance that "real" house prices would be below 2007 levels.

Related Articles
House prices 'to crash 20pc by 2012' as Budget bites

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC, said: "The possibility of a renewed fall in house prices over the next few years cannot be ruled out as mortgage interest rates start to rise again."

And it all seemed to be going well. The price falls that followed the credit crisis appeared to have bottomed, with prices steadily rising over the past year or so. The stamp duty holiday for homes priced under £250,000 has played its part in the recovery.

But the mood has changed. According to Halifax, average house prices have fallen in each of the past three months. Last week, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) added to the woe by revealing that sellers are outnumbering buyers. This is the reverse of last year, when a shortage of sellers helped kick-start a the recovery of the market.

If sellers continue to outnumber buyers there is a strong likelihood that prices, already slipping, will fall further. The RICS survey said that 27pc more chartered surveyors reported a rise rather than a fall in people putting their houses on the market, up from 22pc in May and the highest reading since May 2007 – a few months before the market crashed.

But what do other economists and property experts think? We spoke to a dozen analysts; half expect house prices to be flat over the year, with many reluctant to predict too far ahead. Three expect prices to be up over the calendar year (but flat from here on in) and three expect prices to fall by between 2pc and 6pc.

Staying flat does not mean these experts are not expecting a fall. Prices have climbed 6pc since January, which means that when experts say they expect prices to stay flat over the year, they are actually saying that prices will fall from here back to where they were in January.

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said: "House prices are likely to be erratic over the coming months and will probably be only flat over the rest of 2010. It is hard at this stage to be optimistic about prices in 2011, as the fiscal squeeze will kick in, which will hit people's pockets and lead to job losses in the public sector."

House price forecasts are headline grabbers – but forecasters do get it wrong. For example, in the autumn 1990 an economic adviser at Abbey said: "We anticipate a modest recovery next year, or at least a positive growth in house prices.'' Prices went on to fall in four of the next five years.

In 2004, many experts were forecasting a property crash, claiming house prices had risen to unsustainable levels. But prices rose by 15pc in 2005, almost twice the annual average of the previous 20 years.

At the start of 2009, long-time property bear Roger Bootle, from Capital Economics, predicted that house prices would fall by a further 20pc, leaving them about 35pc below their peak – but average prices rose by 5.9pc, according to the Nationwide House Price Index.

Yet not one of the dozen experts we contacted this week believes that prices will rise during the second half of the year, with unemployment set to rise once public sector spending cuts get into full swing.

For many would-be sellers, it seems a bigger gamble to hold off in the hope that the market will continue to improve, than to sell now given the recovery in house prices and an improvement in the mortgage market.
And for those looking to remortgage, now could be the optimum time. The mortgage market is recovering from the credit crunch. Fixed rates have been falling (they are now close to seven-year lows) and lenders have been relaxing criteria so even those with a 5pc deposit can now get a loan.

But new proposed affordability tests could make it harder for people to get the size of mortgage they expect, while this month the Bank of England warned mortgages would be harder to obtain in the next three months amid fears of a "deterioration in the economic outlook".

In short, this could be as healthy as the housing and mortgage markets get for quite a while.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/7894731/Are-house-prices-set-to-fall-again.html

U.S. economy: From Recovery to Sustainable Growth

July 15, 2010, 10:21PM EST

Analysts Pare Revenue Growth Expectations

Investors may not be able to count on robust rates of sales growth to boost earnings in coming quarters

By David Bogoslaw

Equity analysts and investment strategists have been closely watching corporate revenue trends since last summer to see what's driving any improvement in earnings. But investors may not be able to count on improving sales growth as a way to pump up profits: Analysts are dialing back expectations for revenue growth for some of the world's biggest companies.

In a July 13 market commentary, Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at BNY ConvergEx Group, an investment technology provider, published data showing that analysts' consensus revenue estimates for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2010 have been declining since April or May. Forecasts were lower in July than in April or May for 21 companies of the Dow 30 for the second quarter, for 22 for the third quarter, and for 19 for the fourth quarter, the report said.

The trend toward lower revenue expectations is present in the broader market. In the three months leading up to July 15, 48.7 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index with available data had their revenue estimates cut, vs. 39.3 percent in the comparable period leading up to Apr. 30 and 37.1 percent in the three months leading up to Jan. 29, according to Bloomberg data. The start of fourth-quarter earnings releases is typically mid-January, while first-quarter earnings are released beginning in mid-April.

Colas has been tracking analysts' projections for revenue growth for the past year and says that until April those numbers had continued to climb "every single month, month in and month out," reflecting analysts' expectations for further improvement in quarterly earnings. But the trend over the past two months has flattened and is now declining. That's coincided with an 8.0 percent pullback in the S&P 500 index between Apr. 15 and July 15, and Colas believes there's a link between the two.

"For the first time since the [March 2009] market lows, analysts now realize they have overshot on revenue expectations and now are starting to pull them back in," he says. "Earnings expectations have not declined, so analysts have cut revenue expectations but have given companies more credit for [continuing] cost cuts."

IMPACT ON STOCKS
Doubts about the strength of revenue growth over the past year could pose problems for continuing advances in stock prices. "What do you pay for earnings if you're not sure what the structural growth rates are? That's a big, big question," says Colas. "One proxy for structural growth is revenue growth."

While two-thirds of the 30 Dow components seems like a large proportion, the index contains a lot of blue chip companies whose sales are highly correlated to U.S. gross domestic product, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. As GDP projections for 2010 have moderated, it makes sense that consensus estimates for revenue growth would follow suit, he says. On July 14, the Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth estimate for 2010 to 3 percent to 3.5 percent from a forecast of 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent given in April.

It's fair to wonder whether the increasing percentage of downward revisions reflects the extent to which analysts may have been blindsided by the European sovereign debt crisis and the slowdown in China, not to mention the soft patch that the U.S. economy has hit. It may be that analysts' optimism about economic growth at the start of a new year tends to fade as the year wears on, which is borne out by patterns in 2009 and so far in 2010, says Peter Nielsen, manager of the Sextant Core Fund (SCORX) at privately held Saturna Capital in Bellingham, Wash.

Another thing to keep in mind: "There's a lot of noise" in the year-over-year comparisons for revenue due to the absence of growth drivers such as cash for clunkers and other government stimulus programs that boosted companies' sales in 2009, says Nielsen. That may be one reason for the conservative revenue numbers coming from many brokerage analysts, he adds. Nielsen thinks year-over-year comparisons will become more difficult as the year progresses and expects "very modest" revenue gains in the third quarter.

It also makes sense that analysts would be paring their revenue estimates around the one-year anniversary of what most economists agree was the bottom of the economic cycle, says Craig Peckham, equity product strategist at Jefferies & Co. (JEF). It's logical to conclude that revenue growth will disappoint investors as year-over-year earnings comparisons become more challenging later this year, he says.

REASSURING EARNINGS REPORTS
The central issue is that investors are unwilling to pay as much for earnings growth driven more by cost-cutting than by improvement in sales. "What you pay for an earnings multiple for cost-cutting is less than what you pay for revenue growth because cost-cutting has to stop somewhere" while revenue growth has "a longer runway," says Colas.

Encouraging second-quarter earnings reports may be enough to stanch the flow of negative revisions and confirm the view that analysts have reduced estimates too far on concerns about Europe, as well as doubts about consumer spending in the U.S., says Jefferies' Peckham. The performance of some equity market bellwethers seems to suggest that analysts may be relying too heavily on pessimistic macroeconomic data that have come out in the last two months, he adds.

Alcoa (AA) reported earnings of 13 cents per share on July 12, beating the Street's forecast by a penny, on a 22.2 percent rise in revenue from a year earlier. On July 13, Intel (INTC) posted a profit of 51 cents per share, up from 18 cents a year earlier and beating analysts' expectations by 8 cents. The microchip manufacturer's revenue rose $2.7 billion, or 33 percent, from a year earlier, exceeding the consensus forecast by $549.9 million, or 5.5 percent. Intel projected third-quarter revenue of $11.2 billion to $12 billion, the lower range of which was ahead of the consensus estimate by $289.35 million, or 2.7 percent, a day prior to the earnings release.

In making the transition from recovery to sustainable growth, the U.S. economy faces some key obstacles such as Europe's fiscal problems and the weak domestic labor market, according to a midyear outlook report by LPL Financial published on July 12. While U.S. banks are fairly insulated from European debt woes, LPL said that U.S. exports and business spending are vulnerable to a pullback in global economic growth that could result from another freeze of liquidity and trade, as well as to the euro zone slipping back into recession due to cuts in government spending, tax hikes, and higher borrowing costs.

TYPICAL RECOVERY SLOWDOWN
Kleintop thinks analysts were caught by surprise by negative macroeconomic data on home sales, retail sales, and job creation. That's not unusual since analysts tend to focus more on microeconomic data related to companies they cover than what's happening in the broader economy. But the fact that the economy has hit a soft patch a year into the recovery is typical of each of the past several recoveries, he says. Each time, the soft period didn't halt the expansion, but it did slow the pace of economic growth and result in a flat stock market for about a year, he says.

Another source of confusion for the market is the divergence between robust manufacturing data and a resurgence of caution among consumers. While the manufacturing strength is encouraging, that's a small part of the economy relative to consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70 percent of GDP. The fact that the dominant sector is so sluggish "makes this recovery somewhat fragile and susceptible to a downside shock," says David Joy, chief market strategist at RiverSource Investments. He thinks consumer spending will probably remain soft, making a 3.0 percent gain in GDP the best the U.S. can muster for the foreseeable future.

It's worth noting how questions about economic growth have been translating into stock performance, he says. "We're noticing valuations within the market are very compressed. Investors are saying large caps are no better than small caps, that high-quality stocks are no better than low-quality ones," he says. "That tells us where you want to be is in large-cap, high-quality stocks," which have more reliable earnings growth and tend to pay dividends and aren't selling at a premium to lesser-quality names as they usually would.

But by focusing on revenue growth, investors may be overly conservative in their outlook for earnings growth. U.S. companies slashed costs dramatically at the bottom of the cycle, paving the way for outsized earnings growth once revenues recover even modestly, says Peckham. "Companies have been able to create cost structures with a ton of operating leverage. If you've got a model with good operating leverage, your earnings should go up a lot faster than your revenues," he says.

CORPORATE OUTLOOK WATCH
Second-quarter earnings, which have just begun to be reported, are likely to ease market jitters as key economic questions such as the impact of Europe's debt and growth problems are put in perspective, says Kleintop. Although many companies in the S&P 500 export goods and services to Europe, most of the demand from overseas in the past year has come from Asia. Large U.S. companies can still generate strong double-digit profit growth without help from Europe, he says.

Saturna's Nielsen is particularly eager to hear comments from pharmaceutical executives on earnings conference calls to get a sense of the impact they expect fiscal austerity measures in Europe to have on their European sales. He's deeply skeptical of the confidence sell-side analysts have in European governments' willingness to continue to pay up for drugs and joint replacements based on aging demographics in those countries, in the face of their fiscal difficulties.

Conference calls should also provide more clarity on the tangible costs of health-care and financial reform as companies disclose what they think the impact of these regulatory changes will be on their businesses, says Kleintop. "Once you can define them, they start to lose some of their potency to sway sentiment," he says. That could help sustain the recent stock rally. While the market seems stuck in a broad range, he says the S&P 500 could see further gains of 5 percent to 7 percent before another round of profit-taking kicks in.

The increasing number of downward earnings revisions doesn't bode well for stock market gains in 2010 relative to 2009. Roughly 200 companies in the S&P 500 have had downward revisions in the past three months, vs. 250 that have had upward revisions, according to data that Kleintop has been watching. Three months ago, only 150 companies had had downward revisions vs. 300 that had had upward revisions. The percentage of total analyst revisions that are positive "moves in lockstep with the year-over-year performance of the S&P [500 index]" going back 30 years, he says.

The steam that's come out of revenue growth expectations makes the 2011 consensus forecast for aggregate earnings of $96 per share for the S&P 500 look less and less realistic, says RiverSource's Joy. With the broad market now trading at around 12 times that number, even if you scale revenue growth back slightly, stocks still seem inexpensive, he says. That makes him think there's a cushion for equities even if revenue growth isn't robust enough to generate the earnings analysts are expecting.

Bogoslaw is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek's Finance channel.

http://www.businessweek.com/print/investor/content/jul2010/pi20100715_477248.htm

High-Quality Stocks Could Take Market Lead

July 18, 2010, 9:01PM EST

High-Quality Stocks Could Take Market Lead

Investors have ignored steady profits and predictable sales from companies in consumer staples and health care. Will the market now value them?

By Ben Steverman

Slower economic growth may be good news for stocks renowned for their resilience in tougher economic times.

This, in turn, could boost the performance of stock managers who specialize in these higher-quality, defensive names, especially in sectors such as health-care and consumer staples.

"Maybe we'll have our moment in the sun," says Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Co., who has a high concentration in consumer staples stocks.

As the stock market recovered from its decade low of Mar. 9, 2009, to its 2010 peak on Apr. 23, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index's financial sector—beaten down by the financial crisis—rose 170 percent. The S&P 500's consumer discretionary sector, including retailers hurt by the slowdown in consumer spending, gained 124 percent.

"At the very beginning of a market upturn, the lowest-quality stocks tend to outperform," says Sean Kraus, chief investment officer at CitizensTrust. "You had a lot of [portfolio managers focused on quality] underperforming last year because they would not go" to lower-quality stocks.

ARE HIGHER-QUALITY STOCKS MOVING UP?
Falling behind was the S&P 500 health-care sector, up 43.5 percent from Mar. 9, 2009 to Apr. 23, and the S&P 500 consumer staples sector, up 44 percent, even as both sectors did a better job at maintaining earnings and sales during the recession.

Worries about the economy may already be helping higher-quality stocks outperform during the last several weeks.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (which measures economically sensitive stocks in the U.S.) is down 16 percent since Apr. 23, while the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index (a gauge of less economically sensitive companies) has fallen 9.8 percent.

While the S&P 500 has slid 12.5 percent since Apr. 23, the S&P 500 consumer staples sector is down 5.1 percent—and its largest company, Procter & Gamble (PG), is off 2.4 percent.

The S&P health-care sector and its largest stock, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), are both down 8.6 percent since Apr. 23.

HEALTH-CARE EARNINGS HAVEN'T FALLEN
"Consumer staples and health-care stocks typically have more predictable, less volatile earnings streams," says Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

According to Bloomberg data, health care is the only sector of the S&P 500 not to see quarterly earnings drop year-over-year in the past two years. The S&P 500 consumer staples sector's worst quarter, the fourth quarter of 2008, saw earnings fall 7.5 percent—as overall S&P 500 earnings were plunging 47.2 percent.

Several stock managers and strategists say that the current environment may give higher-quality sectors an advantage. "As the economic data continues to soften, we should see these better-quality names picking up steam," says Quincy Krosby, Prudential Financial (PRU) market strategist.

Federal Reserve minutes released on July 14 show that central bank officials have lowered their 2010 economic growth forecast from a range in April of 3.2 to 3.7 percent, to a range in June of 3 to 3.5 percent. Other data have supported the belief that the economy is slowing its growth rate, including a drop on July 16 of 9.5 points in the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment to 66.5, the lowest level in 11 months.

INVESTMENT FOCUS: LEADING STOCKS?
Still weighing on health-care stocks is the possible impact of federal health-care reform legislation that became law in March. On one hand, the law "wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of industry participants were fearing," says Morningstar (MORN) health-care stock analyst Matthew Coffina. On the other hand, the law is complex and could take years to fully enact. "Investors are on edge," Coffina says, reacting day-by-day to shifting perceptions of how regulators will implement the law.

Wayne Titche, chief investment officer at AMBS Investments, says a slower-growth economy will favor the leading stocks in many different sectors, including consumer discretionary and technology. The key, he says, is finding companies with strong balance sheets and cash flow, good management, and the ability to develop new products and gain market share.

Titche cites retailer Kohl's (KSS), which he owns. "They have the money to invest and take share from weaker players," Titche says.

A stock market that rewards quality is one that is thinking long-term, Titche says. Investors have become very short-sighted, he says. "People have totally lost faith in long-term investing."

In the past year, broad trends—from issues in the U.S. economy to the European debt crisis—have shaped the stock market. Soon, however, investors are going to have to make "stock-specific" distinctions between the strong and weak players in each industry, Krosby says. Despite "a slowdown in the economy, many stocks are going to do very well," she says.

Steverman is a reporter in Bloomberg's Chicago bureau.

http://www.businessweek.com/print/investor/content/jul2010/pi20100716_711583.htm

Finding Opportunities Amidst Volatile Markets


Finding Opportunities Amidst Volatile Markets by
Wong Sui Jau, General Manager
Fundsupermart


View Video with Slides


This talk was delivered on 18th October 2008
Below are the 'printed' notes of the slides.


Markets Year to Date
Market ... Indices ... YTD as at 10th Oct 2008
China ... HSMCI Index ... -54.10%
Emerging Markets ... MXEF ...-52.5%
Asia ex-Japan ... MXASJ Index ... -51.80%
India ...SENSEX Index ... -48.60%
Hong Kong ... HSI Index ... -46.80%
Nikkei 225 ... NKY Index ... -45.90%
Singapore ... STI Index ... -43.80%
Europe ...SX5P Index ... -43.70%
Taiwan ... TWSE Index ... -39.70%
US ... SPX Index ... -38.80%
Malaysia ... KLCI Index ... -35.40%
Korea ... KOSPI Index ... -34.60%

Source:  Bloomberg



Bad News Abound
  • More losses expected from the ongoing US financial crisis there.
  • US likely to fall into recession.
  • Europe and Japan economies now also facing a slump.
  • Asia will be affected as well.

How to handle all the Turbulence?
  • With the large movements in markets so far this year, many investors may be considering going all cash.
  • Is cash the best alternative for investors?
  • Inflation levels in Malaysia is high, likely to be at least above 6% in 2008 with food prices going up.
  • Negative real short term interest rates very possible this 2008
  • Trying to time the market too closely and selling out when faced with a flood of bad news and sentiment is often not the best move.
  • Why?

Some of the worst bears and best bulls
HK
Market Crashes:  Sept 87 to Nov 87 -45.8%
Market Recoveries:  Nov 87 to Dec 93 +281.5%

HK 
Market Crashes:  Jul 81 to Nov 82 -59.1%
Market Recoveries:  Nov 82 to Dec 86 +264.8%

Korea
Market Crashes:  Apr 96 to Jun 98  -69.6%
Market Recoveries:  Jun 98 to Dec 99  +245.1%

Singapore 
Market Crashes:  Feb 97 to Aug 98  -58.4%
Market Recoveries:  Aug 98 to Dec 99  +189.5%

HK 
Market Crashes:  Feb 73 to Dec 74  -89.5%
Market Recoveries:  Dec 74 to Mar 76  +166.4%

US 
Market Crashes:  Mar 37 to Apr 42  -57.3%
Market Recoveries:  Apr 42 to May 46  +150.4%

US 
Market Crashes:  Aug 29 to Jun 32  -86.0%
Market Recoveries:  Jun 32 to Jun 33  +146.3%

Singapore 
Market Crashes:  Jul 90 to Sep 90   -33.2%
Market Recoveries:  Sep 90 to Dec 93  +141.6%


Some observations
  • Bear markets do not last forever.  Market crashes have ranged anywhere from a few months to a few years in length.  (Most tend to last just a few months to one year though).
  • The best rebounds happen after the market crashes (can be as much as 100% or more).
  • Missing out on these rebounds can affect one's overall return significantly.

Dealing with our emotions
  • The main culprit that affects our returns from volatility is that our emotions often cause us to buy high and sell low.
  • Right now, with many Asian markets had already slumped 40% to over 50% from their peak, some markets are priced very attractively - is this the right time to lose your confidence?
  • Choosing to sell out of markets now only make it that much harder emotionally to re-enter markets again even when they have truly bottomed out.

Bad news is not always bad
  • Interestingly, a time when bad news abound is not necessarily bad.
  • Historically, it is when everything looks rosy, when there is no black cloud at all, when markets are expensive.
  • Historically, it is when everything looks bleak, with little to be positive about when markets are cheap.

Don't wait for bad news to end
  • Markets are forward looking.  When they are see some signs of improvement, they will rebound.
  • By the time the recovery actually takes place, they would be up already.
  • At near to market bottoms, everything looks bad.
  • When did the US market bottom during the period of the second world war?  (It started in 1939 and ended in 1945).

Past bottoms
  • The bottom of the US market during the second world war was in April 1942.  (The war ended in 1945)
  • The bottom of the US market, during the saving and loans crisis was in Sep 1990.  (Banks were still going bankrupt all the way up till 1993).

Now is a good time for making money
  • Money is made by buying low and selling high.
  • Good news abound during times of market highs, and bad news abound during times of market lows.
  • So, the prevalent bad news all around now, is a signal that markets are low.
  • Another signal is low valuations of markets in general.

Our views on various issues
  • US in a recession and the ongoing US financial Crisis.
  • Where we find bargains and value at this point in time.

US is likely already in Recession
  • US property market slump continues.
  • Financial sector in turmoil due to subprime woes, further losses expected.
  • Consumer sentiment is going to be hit and large portion of these consumers are spending on credit and paying mortgages at the same time.
  • Federal Reserves efforts won't prevent this.
  • US is already in a recession.

Where we see bargains
Asian Equities
  • Asian markets are oversold.
  • Asian valuations are currently at very attractive levels.
  • Asian remains a high growth region.
  • Asian financials have very little exposure to the toxic sub prime related mortgages.

Valuations have come down.
MSCI Asia Excluding Japan and Estimated PE
In Jun 1997:  
Index level was 400
Estimated P/E was 20

In May 2000
Index level was 300+
Estimated P/E was 37

In Dec 2001  
Index level was 160
Estimated P/E was 12

In Nov 2007:  
Index level was 700
Estimated P/E was 20

(see graph)
Source: Bloomberg


Some tips on handling volatility
  • Try not to focus so much on the bad news.  Markets cannot drop 5 to 10% every day.
  • Have faith that markets and economies are self correcting, they won't go down forever.
  • Is the correction really all negative?  Falling markets can prevent buying opportunities.
  • Long term investing is less stressful and has a higher probability of making gains.
  • Diversify, diversity, diversify!

Yearly Return of MSCI World
1970 to 2007
(graph)
Source:  MSCI Bloomberg

Of these 38 years, the yearly returns of MSCI World were 
  • negative for 11 years, and
  • positive for 27 years.
Years with Negative Return:
1970
1973
1974
1977
1981
1989
1992
1994
2000
2001
2002


Cumulative 10 years are usuallly Positive
10 year Cumulative Returns of MSCI World Index
(graph)
Source:  MSCI Bloomberg



Diversify!
  • Diversification also forms a key part of lowering ones risk and easing the burden our emotions place on us during turbulent times.
  • Diversification prevents us from putting everything into just one market or asset and is a key part in how we form our portfolios.

Conclusion
  • Bad news abound, but that is not necessarily a bad thing.  It is a signal that markets are low.
  • We like - Asia ex Japan equities.
  • Stay invested, have a diversified portfolio and most importantly, keep calm!


http://www.investorexpo.com.my/webcast/webcast_flash_fundsupermart_20081018/

Sunday 18 July 2010

Seven Strategies For Investing During Volatile Markets

July 17, 2010   

Written by admin, in Investment & Trading

The markets don’t always behave the way we’d like them to: Geopolitical turmoil, natural disasters, interest rates and world events can have a profound effect on market movements. If recent market volatility has you concerned about the economy, you are not alone; this is a confusing time for many investors. Some have decided to stay the course, while others are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to rebound. However, since no one can predict how the markets will perform, it’s important to develop an investment strategy that can help you stay on the right track to meeting your long-term financial goals. Here are some strategies that you can implement today, that may help to manage risk during these uncertain times.

Work with a Financial Advisor. There are a lot of do-it-yourself investment resources available to investors today. However, none of those resources can replace the experienced, personal service a Financial Advisor provides. A Financial Advisor can offer an understanding of your complete financial picture, not just your investments. Additionally, in periods of market volatility when you need the most support, a Financial Advisor can provide:
  • Access to important decision-making research and information;
  • Ongoing monitoring of your investment portfolio, while anticipating your changing needs; and
  • A comprehensive market-volatility plan.
Have a plan. Developing a financial plan is one of the best ways to meet your long-term goals. Your plan should also include an action plan to address market volatility, which should be developed well in advance of a turbulent market. Having a market-volatility plan will help you to set realistic goals and appropriately manage your return expectations.

Invest regularly. It may not seem intuitive, but investing regularly—even during market downturns—can help to reduce your overall costs. Dollar cost averaging is one of the best ways to invest regularly, since you’re investing a fixed amount on a fixed schedule, regardless of how the markets perform. Investing regularly can also have intrinsic benefits: It encourages discipline and may also ease the anxiety of daily market fluctuations.

Diversify. If you’ve ever heard the saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket,” then you already have a basic understanding of diversification. Diversifying your portfolio can reduce risk and volatility if the assets have little or no correlation to each other.

Investing in mutual funds is one way to achieve portfolio diversification, since mutual funds are typically a diversified investment. There are also several other ways to diversify and potentially reduce portfolio volatility:
  • Within an asset category, such as purchasing different types of mutual funds;
  • Among asset categories, such as purchasing stocks and bonds; and
  • Outside of the United States, since some markets move opposite to the US stock market.
Put volatility to work for you. Do you think of the glass as half empty or half full? Your perspective can affect the investment decisions you make during market downturns. Investors who view market volatility negatively can make irrational decisions. A down market can be an opportunity for you to build your portfolio and take advantage of lower unit costs.

Stay invested. You are probably anxious during times when the value of your investments has decreased. As a result, you may be tempted to move out of the market, sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to rebound. However, since no one knows how the markets will move, how do you know you’re leaving at the right time? Also, how will you know when it is the right time to get off the sidelines and start investing again?

If you have worked with a Financial Advisor, your investment strategy was developed to help you meet your long-term goals. Timing the market could potentially jeopardize your financial plan—and your future goals.

Be patient. There will always be uncertainty in the markets; market volatility is a natural part of the investment cycle. Although it may take some time, markets do rebound.

In the meantime, call your Financial Advisor to help you develop an action plan for market volatility and continue to focus on your long-term investment goals rather than short-term market moves.

http://www.wallstreetstocks.net/seven-strategies-for-investing-during-volatile-markets

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