Thursday 6 October 2011

Investment Calculator: How much am I going to get if I invest a certain amount?

The pressure to be money savvy is heavier than ever in the current economic climate, with the majority of Brits feeling the pinch. This Investment Calculator can help those keen to save some cash, either for a specific purchase or for a long term goal, understand either how long this will take, or at what growth rate they will need to receive to achieve a specific goal in a certain time frame. Another option for potential investors is to calculate the total amount they are likely to receive from an investment, to analyse its worth.




How much do I need to save to hit a target amount?

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What growth rate do I need to hit a target amount?

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How much am I going to get if I invest a certain amount?

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Stock market volatility - getting used to it

Diary of a private investor: politicians have us in their grip

Once you become acclimatised to the market turbulence, the investment game is still worth playing.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel (L), European Council President Herman Van Rompuy (back 2nd L), Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou and France's President Nicolas Sarkozy (R) leave the EU Council
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and French President Nicolas Sarkozy Photo: Reuters
Stock market volatility has been going on so long that one is almost getting used to it. It is the peacetime equivalent of living through a war and getting accustomed to siren wails. A share of mine drops 4pc and the next day falls another 7pc. Nothing unusual about that. If I can't take it, I should go and get treated for shell shock.
Often people who write in newspapers adopt a persona and, in particular, a confidence that is not genuine, let alone justified. Actually, most of us do not know what is going to happen. And in our personal investments and other financial decisions, we make mistakes like everyone else. Investment is living with uncertainty – knowing you will get it wrong some of the time but reckoning the game is still worth playing.
There is certainly no need to think that everyone but you is doing fine in the current crisis. I got the following email from a former chief investment officer of a major fund manager who now looks after his own money: "I am doing badly. I sell the wrong stocks, hold onto the wrong stocks and bottom fish in the wrong stocks." I know how he feels.
A couple of months ago, when the current crisis of confidence began, I sold off some of my shares in Telecom Plus, a utility company. I reasoned that people had been pushing the price up because it was a relatively safe bet in uncertain times but really the shares were now somewhat overrated. I sold when the shares had fallen a little and they have since risen, even above the level in July – a magnificent outperformance. Thank goodness I sold only a minority of my holding.
Right now the outlook for the markets seems to depend more on politicians than I can ever remember it doing before. They are often referred to on radio and television as "leaders", which I am beginning to find slightly risible. It is apparent that this bunch of "leaders" firstly does not really know what to do and secondly, to the extent that they have got ideas of what to do, their ideas are all different. It has a bit of a feel of the doomed Weimar Republic.
Of course it is not surprising that nothing can easily be done when the euro is a single currency without a single country running it.
Nevertheless, at any moment an announcement could conceivably be made which will overcome the widespread fear and distrust. If that happens, the market could rise so fast that you would not be able to get any money into it. But if the "leaders" continue to dribble out half-hearted rescues that don't work, the market could fall further. It's up to those "leaders".
Despite all the uncertainty and volatility, I have been buying some shares in the past month, bringing my cash down from about 14pc of my portfolio to 10pc.
One notion of mine has been to secure some of the fabulous dividend yields that are currently available. I half-think "forget about the share prices, just focus on the whopping dividend income".
Apparently investors in the United States have had the same thought and have been buying into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
ETFs are funds you can buy and sell like shares and give you exposure to a particular kind of investment – like gold, or a whole stock market, or whatever.
There is an equivalent one in Britain called iShares FTSE UK Dividend Plus, but it might be better to buy directly into big companies with handsome prospective yields, such as Vodafone (5.8pc with the price at 164p), Shell (5.2pc at £20.27) and British Land (5.5pc at 490p).
At least one piece of good news has turned up. It now looks likely that the Bank of England will finally put in place some quantitative easing either this month or next.
The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee openly raised the possibility last month and one of the members has said he almost voted for it then.
Some people have objected in the past that there is a danger it could fuel inflation. But wage inflation is dormant and commodity prices have now fallen back.
I am particularly aware of this since I have shares in a zinc mine and the price of this estimable metal has slipped from $1.12 in July to 86 cents earlier this week. Ouch!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares-and-stock-tips/8798796/Diary-of-a-private-investor-politicians-have-us-in-their-grip.html

Wednesday 5 October 2011

After Selling Stocks, 'Wait for Capitulation': Strategist


After Selling Stocks, 'Wait for Capitulation': Strategist

By: Patrick Allen
Published: Thursday, 11 Aug 2011 
CNBC EMEA Head of News







Having gotten out of stocks in April this year, one strategist is warning investors not to increase exposure to them until "the real selling capitulation[cnbc explains] takes place," and gold and the Swiss Franc begin to decline.



“We think that the markets are overreacting in terms of economic slowdown,” Bruno Verstraete, the CEO of Nautilus Invest in Zurich told CNBC on Thursday. “The biggest fire is still Europe. It would only be logical to see more triple-A downgrades.”

“The European storm will only stop when Germany is willing to accept a higher yield and lower rating. Euro bonds will be the sole savior,” said Verstraete.

The big question is whether the current market volatility and selloff is a sign of a meltdown for the system, but Verstraete believes the Chinese could come to the rescue.

“Is there a risk for a system meltdown? Yes, but rather limited as it is a universal problem and so far China has not really helped out its customers a lot," he said.

Given the currency reserves they have at hand, their firepower is a multiple of that of the European Central Bank, Verstraete said.

Having watched events in Europe and the debt ceiling talks in Washington, Verstraete believes much of the current uncertainty has been manufactured by the politicians.
“They all say it is time to act," he said. "The market does…only faster."








© 2011 CNBC.com

Correction: CNBC Explains


Correction: CNBC Explains

Published: Friday, 5 Aug 2011 
By: Mark Koba
Senior Editor
A correction may sound like it means something is getting 'fixed' on Wall Street, but actually it's a word used to describe both a trigger for financial losses, as well as buying opportunites for investors.

New York Stock Exchange
Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images
A concerned trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.



So what is a correction? How does one come about? What does it mean for the stock market? CNBC explains.

What is a correction?

A correction is a decline or downward movement of a stock, or a bond, or a commodity or market index.


In short, corrections are price declines that stop an upward trend.

Why do corrections happen?

Stocks, bonds, commodities, and everything else traded on the markets never move in a straight line, either up or down. At some point their value will change—for better or worse.

When stock or bond prices go up, it may seem like there's no end to how high they can go. When this happens, stocks or bonds become 'overbought.' That means some investors will try to buy into the rise of stock prices with the hope of making profits before a downward trend begins.

But as they do buy in, the investors who bought earlier—helping to push the stock or bond price up—will consider selling when they think the price is near a peak. Investors might base their thinking on an earnings report for a certain stock that shows flat profits, or a belief that a certain industry will face trouble. Any kind of 'bad' news can trigger a sell-off.

And sometimes, investors will simply take profits as the market heats up. In either case, the selling pressure drives prices down.

How long do corrections last?

Corrections generally last two months or less. They usually end when the price of a stock or a bond 'bottoms out'—for example, some will point to a stock reaching a 52-week low—and investors start buying again.

How is a correction different from a bear market or "capitulation"?

A correction is shorter in length and generally less damaging to investors than a bear market. A bear market happens when equity prices keep falling and investors keep selling into a downturn of 20 percent or more for the overall market.

The difference between a capitulation and correction is simply that a capitulation is more severe. A capitulation [cnbc explains] , is said to occur when investors try to get out of the stock market as quickly as possible. It's also described as panic selling. Capitulation usually is based on investor fears that stock prices will plunge even further than the current low levels.

Bottoms—or the lowest price for a stock or market index—are formed more quickly in corrections than in capitulations.

Is a correction good for the market?

Many investors and analysts look at corrections as a necessary 'evil' to cool off an overheated stock or bond market. This is to prevent a huge sell-off or 'bubble burst,' as what happened with Internet stocks in 2000-2001.

It's believed that corrections adjust stock prices to their actual value or "support levels," and so, are not overpriced or inflated.

Many short-term investors look at corrections as a buying opportunity when the stock or the overall market has reached a bottom or the lowest price level. Their buying helps push the price back up and stops the correction.

What is an example of a correction?

Corrections are fairly common. We can look at the S&P Index to see one.

As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 closed at 1,363.61 on April 29, 2011, its highest level since June 5, 2008.

On Thursday, Aug. 4, 2011, at 11:26 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 hit a low of 1,225.95, entering “correction” mode, defined by a drop of 10 percent or more.


© 2011 CNBC.com

Capitulation: CNBC Explains


Capitulation: CNBC Explains

By: Mark Koba
Published: Thursday, 4 Aug 2011
Senior Editor




Traditionally, the word capitulation describes a surrender between fighting armies. What is capitulation when it's used on Wall Street? What does it signify? We explain.



cnbc.com


What is capitulation?

In simple terms, capitulation is when investors try to get out of the stock market as quickly as possible and look for less risky investments. It's also described as panic selling. It's usually based on investor fears that stock prices will fall further than they have.
Capitulation is usually signaled by a decline in the markets of at least 10% in one day.

In getting out of the market, investors give up any previous gains in stock price. That means they take a financial loss, just to get out of stocks. The thinking is: take a smaller loss now rather than a bigger one later.

Real capitulation involves extremely high volume—or high numbers of traded shares—and sharp declines in stock prices.

Why do investors capitulate?

Suppose a stock starts dropping in price. There are two choices. Investors stick it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate—or they can take the loss by selling the stock.

If the majority of investors decide to wait it out, then the stock price will probably remain stable. But if the majority of investors decide to capitulate and give up on a stock, they start selling and that starts a sharp decline in a stock's price.

Are there any benefits from capitulation?

Only for those buyers ready to swoop in.  After capitulation selling, common wisdom has it that there are great bargains to be had in the stock market. Why? Because everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason, has sold it. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lowest price of the stock.
In other words, some investors believe that capitulation is the sign of a bottom and a chance to get stocks at a cheaper price than before the capitulation took place.

Is capitulation a way to gauge the markets?

Not at all. Capitulation is very difficult to forecast and use as a way to buy or sell stocks. There is no magical price at which capitulation takes place. Certainly during the trading day, stock prices and volumes are monitored and some measurement is used to determine if a capitulation is taking place and will remain so at the end of the day.

But most often, investors and market watchers look back to determine when the markets actually capitulated and see how far stocks have fallen in price for that one day of trading.

When have there been capitulations?

The stock market crash of 1929 that helped lead to the Great Depression, is a capitulation. In fact, it had more than one day of it.

On Oct. 24, 1929—what's known as Black Thursday—share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed. A then-record number of 12.9 million shares was traded.

But more was to follow. Oct. 28, the first "Black Monday," more investors decided to get out of the market, and the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38 points, or 13 percent.

The next day, "Black Tuesday," Oct. 29, 1929, about 16 million shares were traded, and the Dow lost an additional 30 points.

More recently, there was a massive sell off or panic selling of stocks  on Oct. 10, 2008, in what can be considered a capitulation. Not only U.S. stocks, but global markets had major declines of 10 percent or more on one day.

Investors flooded exchanges with sell orders, dragging all benchmarks sharply lower. It's believed fears of a global recession and the U.S. housing slump sparked the sell-off.

© 2011 CNBC.com