Smoothing sailing for Coastal

Posted on April 9, 2011, Saturday

GIGANTIC: One of Coastal’s offshore landing craft. The company was keen in venturing into new 
areas such as fabrication, repair and maintenance to enhance shareholder value.

KUCHING: Coastal Contracts Bhd (Coastal) was recently listed as one of the top five small cap stocks for 2011 in OSK Research Sdn Bhd’s (OSK Research) Top 50 Small Cap Jewels book.

According to the research firm, Coastal was in ongoing talks with several undisclosed international industry players in relation to setting up joint ventures or strategic stakes in the company.

Coastal which deals primarily in ship building and vessel chartering in the oil and gas industry was keen in venturing into new areas of the industry such as fabrication, repair and maintenance to enhance shareholder value.

Despite Coastal’s impressive share price surge of 61 per cent since January, the analyst believed there was further upside to the stock as the current price was still attractive at a price earnings ratio (PER) of five to six times compared with the oils and gas sector‘s PER of 12 times to 14 times.

In addition, if the company was able to move up the value chain and venture into the fabrication business, investors should be comparing Coastal with its listed peers Kencana Petroleum Bhd and MMHE Sdn Bhd, both of which were trading at a PER of 21 to 27 times, noted OSK Research.

Although Coastal would be the ‘new kid on the block’, OSK Research believed that valuing the company at a PER of eight times was fair, as this comprised only about 30 per cent of its two bigger peers’ valuation and yet provided a 40 per cent upside from the current share price.

Now that Coastal had gained visibility among investors, its share price should trade higher than the current five to six times PER valuation.

The company was believed to have the makings of a merger and acquisition target because the focus was shifted on a potential new business to be injected into the company rather than on its core shipbuilding business.

Based on a PER of eight times for the financial year 2011 earnings per share, the target price for the company was pegged at RM4.85 per share, a boost from the last traded price of RM3.47 per share.

 http://www.theborneopost.com/?p=117349

Gold hits record high

Gold hits record high after Trichet rates comments

April 07, 2011

File photo of a 1kg gold bar on display in a shop in Dubai’s gold souk. Gold prices hit fresh record highs in London and New York today, April 7, 2011. — Reuters pic

LONDON, April 7 — Gold hit a fresh record high near US$1,465 (RM4,395) an ounce today after European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet indicated the rate hike announced by the bank earlier may not be the first in a series.

Spot gold hit a record US$1,464.80 an ounce and was bid at US$1,460.50 at 1420 GMT, against US$1,457 late in New York yesterday. US gold futures for June delivery were up US$3.80 an ounce to US$1,462.30, having peaked at US$1,467.

The ECB lifted interest rates by 25 basis points today as expected, but Trichet said in a press conference after the move that the bank had not taken the decision as the first in a string of such moves.

“The market had factored in that Trichet would be a bit more hawkish in his comments,” said Peter Fertig, a consultant at Quantitative Commodity Research. “If you look at government bond markets, they all recovered during his press conference.”

“Of course they will be vigilant in monitoring inflation developments very closely. But it is more inflation expectations that made the ECB concerned, and less the actual increase (in inflation).”

Gold tends to suffer in a rising interest rate environment, as this raises the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion. Expectations for a rise in euro zone rates kept a lid on gold’s rally to record highs earlier this year.

That came largely on the back of unrest simmering across the Middle East and North Africa, which has lifted risk aversion, and boosted oil prices to multi-year highs.

A Nato air strike killed at least five rebels near the Libyan port of Brega, medics said, and insurgents reported Muammar Gaddafi’s forces killed five more in a bombardment of besieged Misrata.

“The tail risk event remains uncertainty in the Middle East leading to a supply side-driven spike in the oil price,” said Citigroup in a note.

“Historically the biggest beneficiary under an oil price spike environment has been gold, with large amounts of petro dollars being recycled into the yellow metal.”

Holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, slipped more than 7 tonnes yesterday to their lowest since May 2010, their biggest one-day drop in more than two weeks.

Interest in ETFs, which issue securities backed by physical metal, has been muted since the start of the year, with the SPDR recording its biggest ever quarterly outflow in the first three months of 2011.

“Other factors have to be used to explain the rally of gold prices, and there are plenty of them; besides the weak US dollar, the debt crisis in the euro zone peripherals is also clearly playing a role,” said Commerzbank in a note.

“Portugal bowed to pressure yesterday evening and not unexpectedly requested financial aid from the EU rescue fund. The country is set to receive around 80 billion euros as soon as possible.”

Meanwhile, banks led European shares to their highest level in nearly a month as strategists said interest rate rises would not derail equities’ advance and a bailout for Portugal would give stability.

Among other precious metals, silver was bid at US$39.48 an ounce against US$39.43, just off the previous session’s 31-year high at US$39.75. Platinum was at US$1,784.24 an ounce versus US$1,787.45, while palladium was at US$780.97 versus US$778.10. — Reuters

POS Malaysia generates strong Free Cash Flow.

Have taken a brief look at POS.

1.  Cash rich company.  Cash RM 398.033 m, little debt.

2.  Net CFO is strong .. RM 198.451m

3.  Its FCF is strong ... net CFO 198.451 - capex 64.898 = RM 133.553m

4.  Market cap = RM 1670.2 m @ share price of RM 3.11 each.

5.  FCF/Market cap = 8% (very good).

6.  Dividend paid 50.346 m  DY = 50.346/1670.2 = 3%


It is no wonder that so many suitors are lining to acquire this stock from Khazanah.

Latest valuation based on closing price of 7.4.2011

Outstanding shares of POS = 537.03 million.

At the closing price of  MR 3.74 per share on 7.4.2011, its market cap = MR 2,008.5 million.

The FCF generated by POS in the last FY was MR 133.553 million.

Its FCF/Market Cap on 7.4.2011 = 6.65%.

Its Market Cap/FCF = 15 x

The successful company that acquire POS would have bought a company that is generating good net CFO and strong FCF.  

It is on the basis of this FCF that makes the valuation of POS seems reasonable for the moment.

'Itu bukan Anwar', kata Wan Azizah

'Itu bukan Anwar', kata Wan Azizah

Isteri Anwar yang juga presiden PKR, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail kata video itu merupakan "bukti paling jelas" bahawa suaminya bukanlah lelaki yang mengadakan hubungan seks dengan seorang pelacur itu.

Membaca satu kenyataan hari ini, wan Azizah berkata, keluarganya telah memutuskan untuk menonton video 
yang disiarkan di Internet itu dan mendapati jelas bahawa susuk badan lelaki berkenaan terlalu berbeza dengan susuk badan Anwar.

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/160648

Penny Stocks: Pump and Dump (SELL TO SUCKERS)

Penny stocks are those that trade at < RM 1.00.

Some investors confuse these low prices for value.

These stocks are often and easily promoted or manipulated.

Beware of the promoters or manipulators who hype these stocks in the internet forums.

They have often taken a position well before.

The unwary "investors" enter and soon find themselves buying these stocks higher than they can sell.

Here is an example of a stock that was from a forum.

Study the chart of the stock and the table of its prices and volumes.

I believe this chart depicts this penny stocks when it was being "Pumped and Dumped" by its promoters or manipulators. (Period of interest:  September 2010 to December 2010)

There are good lessons one can draw from this event.

Check the observations made below.

LCTH :  Daily Prices and Volumes

Prices (Daily)

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* Jan 19, 2011 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 437,800 0.28 Jan 18, 2011 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 435,000 0.28 Jan 17, 2011 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 469,400 0.28 Jan 14, 2011 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 479,000 0.29 Jan 13, 2011 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 993,400 0.29 Jan 12, 2011 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 744,000 0.29 Jan 11, 2011 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 409,000 0.29 Jan 10, 2011 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.30 833,600 0.30 Jan 7, 2011 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.29 678,300 0.29 Jan 6, 2011 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.30 1,728,800 0.30 Jan 5, 2011 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.28 583,600 0.28 Jan 4, 2011 0.26 0.28 0.26 0.28 487,300 0.28 Jan 3, 2011 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 492,100 0.26 Dec 30, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 217,000 0.26 Dec 29, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 93,000 0.26 Dec 28, 2010 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 86,000 0.26 Dec 27, 2010 0.25 0.28 0.25 0.27 1,468,000 0.27 Dec 24, 2010 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 166,200 0.25 Dec 23, 2010 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.26 203,800 0.26 Dec 22, 2010 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.26 648,700 0.26 Dec 21, 2010 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.25 822,000 0.25 Dec 20, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 598,400 0.25 Dec 17, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 400,600 0.26 Dec 16, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 57,400 0.26 Dec 15, 2010 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.27 169,600 0.27 Dec 14, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 456,400 0.26 Dec 13, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 649,500 0.26 Dec 10, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 732,200 0.25 Dec 9, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 303,900 0.26 Dec 8, 2010 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 304,600 0.26 Dec 6, 2010 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.26 625,500 0.26 Dec 3, 2010 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 628,600 0.26 Dec 2, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.27 283,400 0.27 Dec 1, 2010 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.26 93,500 0.26 Nov 30, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.27 875,200 0.27 Nov 29, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 579,100 0.28 Nov 26, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 378,800 0.28 Nov 25, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 720,800 0.28 Nov 24, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 305,900 0.28 Nov 23, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.28 928,300 0.28 Nov 22, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 1,057,800 0.28 Nov 19, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 504,200 0.29 Nov 18, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29 552,100 0.29 Nov 16, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.31 811,000 0.31 Nov 15, 2010 0.34 0.34 0.29 0.31 3,137,500 0.31 Nov 12, 2010 0.38 0.40 0.37 0.37 2,716,800 0.37 Nov 11, 2010 0.37 0.38 0.35 0.38 3,223,300 0.38 Nov 10, 2010 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.37 789,500 0.37 Nov 9, 2010 0.40 0.40 0.36 0.38 1,299,100 0.38 Nov 8, 2010 0.39 0.40 0.38 0.38 4,302,600 0.38 Nov 4, 2010 0.32 0.41 0.32 0.38 11,517,500 0.38 Nov 3, 2010 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.32 466,000 0.32 Nov 2, 2010 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 419,000 0.31 Nov 1, 2010 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.33 1,067,600 0.33 Oct 29, 2010 0.30 0.32 0.30 0.31 1,036,800 0.31 Oct 28, 2010 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.31 127,000 0.31 Oct 27, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.31 572,600 0.31 Oct 26, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 309,000 0.29 Oct 25, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 204,300 0.28 Oct 22, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 130,000 0.28 Oct 21, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 156,100 0.28 Oct 20, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.28 254,000 0.28 Oct 19, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 40,000 0.28 Oct 18, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 12,000 0.28 Oct 15, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.27 0 0.27 Oct 14, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 70,000 0.28

Observations:

After a long period of promotion, many investors were made aware of the stock in the internet forum.  

Subconsciously, the stock entered their attention and was in their radar screen.  

Many hesitated and did not enter in the early stages of the promotion due to doubts and cautiousness.

Then, when the volume started to climb and the prices started to move upwards, these previously primed "investors" took notice.  

The more adventurous entered first and early at this stage.

As the price rose, more entered.  This was the confirmation that many of these "primed investors" were waiting and looking for.  "It must be true, the game is now on, I am getting in too."  

But note, they were buying at higher prices.  Some even bought more at higher prices (averaging up).   Did you notice that they were already paying a higher price than the "usual"?

Then more of the "dumb money" flowed in.  Look at the huge volume of stocks transacted on 4.11.2010.  This counter was the talk of the market now.  Ever wondered WHO SOLD on that day?  Of course, the manipulators and the smart money.

The party was as good as over by now.  However, more SUCKERS came in over the next few trading days.  With ALL SUCKERS in the stock now, and the smart money having moved out, there were no more SUCKERS to support the price.  

ALL the SUCKERS now holding the stocks were hoping to sell to ANOTHER SUCKER who was willing to buy from them at higher prices.  

Alas, NO new SUCKERS appeared.  This led to the precipitous fall in the price from the 6th trading day after the peak of the volumes and the price of the stock.

It was then a matter of awakening for those left holding the stock at high prices.  Over the subsequent weeks and months, they too realised they were SUCKED, holding or departing from the shares with their losses.

Prices (Daily)

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* Oct 13, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 80,600 0.28 Oct 12, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 135,000 0.28 Oct 11, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 120,000 0.28 Oct 8, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Oct 7, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 20,600 0.28 Oct 6, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 42,000 0.28 Oct 5, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 13,000 0.28 Oct 4, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 220,000 0.27 Oct 1, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.28 91,900 0.28 Sep 30, 2010 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 72,600 0.27 Sep 29, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 28,400 0.27 Sep 28, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 190,000 0.28 Sep 27, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 3,000 0.28 Sep 24, 2010 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 1,800 0.27 Sep 23, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 60,000 0.28 Sep 22, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 172,000 0.28 Sep 21, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 5,000 0.28 Sep 20, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Sep 17, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 6,000 0.28 Sep 15, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 10,000 0.28 Sep 14, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.26 71,600 0.26 Sep 13, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.27 0 0.27 Sep 9, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 10,000 0.28 Sep 8, 2010 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 10,600 0.27 Sep 7, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 36,000 0.27 Sep 6, 2010 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.27 0 0.27 Sep 3, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 25,600 0.28 Sep 2, 2010 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.28 76,200 0.28 Sep 1, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Aug 30, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 43,000 0.28 Aug 27, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 20,000 0.28 Aug 26, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 70,000 0.28 Aug 25, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 186,000 0.28 Aug 24, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 40,000 0.28 Aug 23, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 20,600 0.28 Aug 20, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 200,000 0.28 Aug 19, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Aug 18, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 163,700 0.29 Aug 17, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 241,500 0.29 Aug 16, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 341,800 0.28 Aug 13, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 214,000 0.29 Aug 12, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Aug 11, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Aug 10, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 37,500 0.29 Aug 9, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.29 19,000 0.29 Aug 6, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.29 0 0.29

Prices (Daily)

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* Aug 3, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 30,000 0.30 Aug 2, 2010 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.30 18,600 0.30 Jul 30, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.30 202,000 0.30 Jul 29, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 238,800 0.30 Jul 28, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29 53,000 0.29 Jul 27, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 95,000 0.29 Jul 26, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 94,900 0.29 Jul 23, 2010 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.29 306,000 0.29 Jul 22, 2010 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.29 40,500 0.29 Jul 21, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.30 273,600 0.30 Jul 20, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.29 185,200 0.29 Jul 19, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.30 18,000 0.30 Jul 16, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Jul 15, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.31 159,600 0.31 Jul 14, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.31 15,000 0.31 Jul 13, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 1,800 0.29 Jul 12, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 28,900 0.28 Jul 9, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.30 50,000 0.30 Jul 8, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 25,000 0.29 Jul 7, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29 37,000 0.29 Jul 6, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 10,000 0.28 Jul 5, 2010 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Jul 2, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 20,000 0.29 Jul 1, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 10,000 0.29 Jun 30, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 26,000 0.29 Jun 29, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 100,500 0.28 Jun 28, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.30 75,000 0.30 Jun 25, 2010 0.29 0.31 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Jun 24, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 10,000 0.30 Jun 23, 2010 0.30 0.32 0.30 0.31 680,700 0.31 Jun 22, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29 0 0.29 Jun 21, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.29 121,200 0.29 Jun 18, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 20,000 0.29 Jun 17, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1,000 0.30 Jun 16, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 85,000 0.29 Jun 15, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 20,000 0.29 Jun 14, 2010 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Jun 11, 2010 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Jun 10, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 40,000 0.29 Jun 9, 2010 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.30 46,000 0.30 Jun 8, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 22,700 0.28 Jun 7, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 7,000 0.28 Jun 4, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 600 0.28 Jun 3, 2010 0.28 0.31 0.28 0.29 89,800 0.29 Jun 2, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 0 0.28 Jun 1, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 282,600 0.29 May 31, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 12,000 0.29 May 27, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.29 216,200 0.29 May 26, 2010 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 168,000 0.28 May 25, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.28 378,800 0.28 May 24, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 85,000 0.29 May 21, 2010 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.29 162,500 0.29 May 20, 2010 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 121,800 0.29 May 19, 2010 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 305,000 0.30 May 18, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 173,000 0.30 May 17, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 44,600 0.31 May 14, 2010 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 77,000 0.31 May 13, 2010 0.32 0.34 0.30 0.31 730,100 0.31 May 12, 2010 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31 866,700 0.31 May 11, 2010 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 30,000 0.33 May 10, 2010 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.33 144,700 0.33 May 7, 2010 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.32 253,600 0.32 May 6, 2010 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34 272,300 0.34 May 5, 2010 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 15,000 0.34 May 5, 2010 0.0178 Dividend May 4, 2010 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.36 206,100 0.34 May 3, 2010 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 30,000 0.34

Check also:

Penny  Stocks:  Pump and Dump

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,19103.0.html

GSB: "Hidden Gem" or "Pump and Dump Penny Stock"

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,18320.0.html