Sunday, 30 November 2025

How an average investor can improve their stock market returns:

 

How can the average investor improves his investment returns in stocks?

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/03/w-can-you-improve-your-investment.html


The adage, "Buy low and Sell high" and pocket the profit, is well known. I like to also remember it this way: "Never buy high and Never sell low".
The subsequent discussion applies to investing in high quality good stocks bought at a bargain only.

How can the average investor improves his investment returns in stocks? More specifically how can an average investor improves his return to 10% annually? Even better, to above 15% annually and consistently? Let us examine some factors affecting investment returns.


1. Stock selection
This is important. You wish to have a stock that gives you a good total sustainable return over many years. You will need to invest in those stocks with a high ROE of at least 15% or more. Also, these stocks should have good earnings growth (EPS growth) that is consistent and sustainable. Such companies run businesses with a huge competitive advantage over their competitors with a large moat.


2. Buy when the selected stock is selling at a low price.
This is the better way to get superior return - the potential return is higher with concomitant lower risk. Invest in "value stocks". A good portfolio should always have cash available to benefit from a bear market or a correction or panic sell in a bull market/or a specific stock.


3. Taking profit
Profit should be realised from sales of stocks in the following situations:
(I) when the stock is obviously overpriced, or
(II) when the sale of the stock frees the capital to be reinvested into another stock with potentially better return.

Not taking profit in the above situations can harm your portfolio and compromise its returns. In other circumstances, let the winners run.

Underperforming stocks should also be sold early. Hanging onto underperforming stocks is costly too. There is the opportunity cost that the capital can be better employed for higher return. Also, hanging onto these lack-lustre stocks reduces the overall return of your portfolio.


4. Reducing serious loss
When the fundamentals of a stock have deteriorated, sell to protect your portfolio. This decision should be make quickly based on the facts and situations, in order to keep your losses small.


5. Diversify, but not overdoing it
According to Buffett, adding the 7th stock to the portfolio reduces the return without reducing the overall non-systemic risk. of the portfolio. Select the best 6 stocks. If you need to add money to your portfolio, buy more of these preexisting stocks when they are offered at a good or bargain price. If you identify a better stock to invest, perhaps, this should replace one of the preexisting stocks in the portfolio.


6. Asset allocate according to your risk taking ability

It is perplexing to know of investors whose days are affected by the swings in the market. You should not bet your total networth into the stock market. Allocate the amount that you are willing to risk.

Many long-term investors are always riding on a significant amount of gains. This means that they will only lose their capital in very unlikely extreme situations.


7. So far so good. The hardest part: getting wired like Buffett!

To invest like what Buffett, you need to be knowledgeable and able to execute 'coldly' (or cooly) without being affected by emotions. These are among the harder skills to master. Have you wondered what drives this blogger to write on investing? Through writing, rather than lurking, you can focus on the facts and solidify your knowledge, philosophy and strategy.

Admittedly, there is no single philosophy or strategy; but you should have one to guide your investing. It prevents you from over-reacting to emotions and circumstances, that may harm your portfolio and investing returns. As this discussion assumes the portfolio contains only good quality stocks, it prevents you from "Buying high and Selling low" due to falling prices in the market. It may allow you to benefit hugely from the volatilities and follies of the market; making volatility your friend.

Understanding and mastering this field of behavioural finance is yet another challenge to higher investment returns for the investors.


Here is a summary of how an average investor can improve their stock market returns:

The core principle is to buy high-quality stocks at a bargain price and avoid the mistake of "buying high and selling low."

Here are the key strategies to achieve consistent annual returns of 10% or more:

  1. Stock Selection: Focus on companies with a sustainable competitive advantage ("large moat"), a high Return on Equity (ROE) of at least 15%, and consistent earnings growth (EPS growth).

  2. Buy at a Low Price: Purchase these quality stocks when they are undervalued. Always keep some cash available to take advantage of market downturns, corrections, or panic selling.

  3. Take Profits Strategically: Sell stocks in two key situations:

    • When they are obviously overpriced.

    • To free up capital for a better investment opportunity.

    • Additionally, sell underperforming stocks early to avoid opportunity costs.

  4. Cut Losses Quickly: If a company's fundamentals deteriorate, sell immediately to keep losses small and protect your portfolio.

  5. Focused Diversification: Don't over-diversify. A portfolio of around six high-quality stocks is sufficient to manage risk without diluting returns. Add new money to existing winners or replace a current stock with a clearly better one.

  6. Appropriate Asset Allocation: Only invest money you are willing to risk. Your investment amount should not cause you stress from normal market swings. Long-term investors who have built up gains are better insulated from losing their initial capital.

  7. Master the Psychology: The hardest part is to emulate Warren Buffett's disciplined, unemotional approach. Having a clear investment philosophy and strategy (which can be solidified through activities like writing) helps you avoid emotional decisions and instead use market volatility to your advantage.

The Hidden Risks of Staying in the Wrong Job


Summary: The Hidden Risks of Stagnation and the Psychology of a Fulfilling Career Change

This conversation with Rory Sutherland, a marketing expert and behavioral science thinker, delves into the psychological barriers and opportunities surrounding career change. The core argument is that we systematically overestimate the risks of leaving a stable job and underestimate the profound psychological and emotional costs of staying stuck.


1. The Hidden Risk is Opportunity Cost

The most significant psychological risk of not changing careers is opportunity cost. We are hardwired to see habitual behavior as safe and to fear quantifiable losses (like a salary). However, we are blind to the nebulous but massive cost of missed opportunities for growth, autonomy, and happiness.

  • Key Quote: "It's opportunity cost. We never think of that. We never think of there's a big risk to doing the same thing."

2. Life is "Fat-Tailed": A Few Decisions Determine Everything

Success is not linear. Life outcomes are "fat-tailed," meaning a very small percentage of your decisions or chance encounters determine the majority of your success and happiness.

  • Implication: To benefit from these pivotal, lucky breaks, you must put yourself in a position where they can happen. Staying in a rigid, unfulfilling job minimizes your surface area for luck.

  • Advice: Deliberately allocate 20% of your time and resources to exploratory, "randomized" activities (e.g., attending conferences, meeting new people) to maximize your chances of getting lucky.

3. Critique of Corporate Bureaucracy

Large corporations are often designed for efficiency and blame-avoidance, not for value creation or human flourishing.

  • They kill creativity, intuition, and the potential for "lucky accidents" by demanding proof for every new idea.

  • Decision-making becomes "defensive"—focused on what is easiest to justify rather than what is best—leading to stagnation.

4. A Practical Framework for Decision-Making

  • Two-Way Doors vs. One-Way Doors (from Jeff Bezos):

    • One-Way Doors: Big, irreversible decisions (e.g., buying a house). These require extensive data and caution.

    • Two-Way Doors: Reversible decisions (e.g., testing a new service). If you can easily reverse a decision, it's often cheaper to try it than to analyze it to death.

  • Always Invert (from Warren Buffett): To make a tough decision, consider its opposite. If the inverse sounds ridiculous (e.g., "Would a lottery winner use the money to recreate my current stressful situation?"), it clarifies the right path.

5. How to Build a Successful Independent Career

  • Build Trust with Clients:

    • Under-Sell: Build credibility by telling clients what they don't need.

    • Be a "Financial Therapist": Focus conversations on life goals and lifestyle, not just money.

    • Pursue "Obliquity": Profit is best pursued indirectly by focusing on providing immense value first; the money will follow as a byproduct.

    • Be Candid: Admitting weaknesses or delivering bad news can be a powerful trust-building move.

  • Stand Out through Distinctiveness: Don't copy competitors. "When everybody zigs, zag." Find a unique "shtick" that nobody else offers and excel at it.

6. The Ultimate Advice: Define Your Own Success

The most important takeaway is to reject outsourcing your happiness to others' values.

  • The Problem: We often judge our success by comparing ourselves to peers, chasing a predefined notion of success that may not fulfill us.

  • The Solution: You must actively define what success and happiness mean for you. Ask yourself what parts of work you love, where you want to live, and what kind of life you want to design. Your career should serve your life, not the other way around.

  • Key Quote: "Your own happiness is too important to be outsourced to someone else's values."

In essence, the transcript makes a powerful case that the safest risk you can take is to bet on yourself. The psychological risks of stagnation—regret, lack of autonomy, and missed opportunities—far outweigh the more visible but manageable risks of stepping into the unknown.



PDF of a more detailed summary of the transcript

https://archive.org/details/the-hidden-risks-of-staying-in-the-wrong-job-rory-sutherland


Saturday, 29 November 2025

Investing in the Stock Market for the individual investor. A beginner's guide.

Investing in the Stock Market for a Beginner

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/07/investing-in-stock-market-for.html

Main Points Summary

This article is a beginner's guide advocating for a disciplined, long-term strategy over speculative, emotional trading. Here are the key takeaways:

  1. Understand the Basics: The stock market is where you buy partial ownership (shares) in companies. You profit if the company does well and the share price increases. Long-term ownership is presented as a historically successful strategy.

  2. You Must Have a Strategy: The core message is to avoid buying on tips or panic selling. A predefined strategy dictates what to buy and when to sell, protecting you from emotions like fear and greed.

  3. Know the Types of Stocks:

  4. Manage Risk with Diversification: All stocks carry risk, including total loss. The primary way to manage this is diversification—spreading your investments across different stocks and sectors ("don't put all your eggs in one basket"). Know your personal risk tolerance.

  5. Understand Market Types:

  6. A Warning on Day Trading: The article is very skeptical of day trading (buying and selling within a single day), labeling it high-risk and stating that more people lose than gain from it. It is portrayed as speculation, not investing.

Overall Conclusion: Successful investing is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It requires education, a disciplined strategy, a long-term perspective, and a clear understanding of risk to build wealth steadily.

Momentum – The trend is not always your friend but can quickly turn into a foe

Be careful when playing momentum – the trend may appear to be your friend, but can quickly turn into a foe

Momentum – The trend is not always your friend

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/be-careful-when-playing-momentum.html


Based on the article (linked above), here is a summary of the key points:

Core Argument: Momentum investing—chasing stocks, sectors, or markets that have recently performed well—is a popular but dangerous strategy that can lead to significant losses when trends reverse.

Key Points:

  • Popularity of Momentum: It is a favourite and easy strategy in India. People naturally recommend buying recent winners and selling recent losers.

  • Psychological Basis: The strategy works due to human behavioral biases: investors initially underreact to good news, then overreact as more news comes in, driving prices up further (and vice-versa for bad news).

  • Ease and Social Safety: Momentum is easy to follow (only past prices are needed) and socially safe, as you are always following the crowd. This contrasts with value investing, which often involves going against popular opinion.

  • Significant Risks: The major flaw is that trends do not last forever. When a trend reverses, momentum crashes quickly and painfully, erasing years of gains (e.g., the 2007-2008 market crash).

  • The Religare AGILE Example: This mutual fund serves as a cautionary tale. It performed poorly when market trends reversed, highlighting how momentum strategies can fail spectacularly at inflection points.

  • Recommendation:

    • Avoid concentrating your investments in a single strategy like momentum.

    • Diversify across different investment styles.

    • If you must use momentum, do so conservatively.

    • Scrutinize a fund manager's performance during trend reversals, not just during bull markets.

Conclusion: Be very careful with momentum investing. While following the trend can seem profitable, it can quickly turn against you, leading to severe losses.

Stocks are Crashing. "SALE! 50% OFF!" News you could use from "Benjamin Graham Financial Network"


News you could use

Stocks are crashing, so you turn on the television to catch the latest market news. But instead of CNBC or CNN, imagine that you can tune in to the Benjamin Graham Financial Network. On BGFN, the audio doesn't capture that famous sour clang of the market's closing bell; the video doesn't home in on brokers scurrying across the floor of the stock exchange like angry rodents. Nor does BGRN run any footage of investors gasping on frozen sidewalks as red arrows whiz overhead on electronic stock tickers.

Instead, the image that fills your TV screen is the facade of the New York Stock Exchange, festooned with a huge banner reading: "SALE! 50% OFF!" As intro music, Bachman-Turner Overdrive can be heard blaring a few bars of their old barn-burner, "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet." Then the anchorman announces brightly, "Stocks became more attractive yet again today, as the Dow dropped another 2.5% on heavy volume - the fourth day in a row that stocks have gotten cheaper. Tech investors fared even better, as leading companies like Microsoft lost nearly 5% on the day, making them even more affordable. That comes on top of the good news of the past year, in which stocks have already lost 50%, putting them at bargain levels not seen in years. And some prominent analysts are optimistic that prices may drop still further in the weeks and months to come."

The newscast cuts over to market strategist Ignatz Anderson of the Wall Street firm of Ketchum & Skinner, who says, "My forecast is for stocks to lose another 15% by June. I'm cautiously optimistic that if everything goes well, stocks could lose 25%, maybe more."

"Let's hope Ignatz Anderson is right," the anchor says cheerily. "Falling stock prices would be fabulous news for any investor with a very long horizon. And now over to Wally Wood for our exclusive AccuWeather forecast."


Ref: Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/07/news-you-could-use.html


====


Based on the provided text, here is a summary:

This article presents a satirical vision of a financial news network (the Benjamin Graham Financial Network) that frames a stock market crash not as a disaster, but as a welcome sale.

Key Points:

  • Reframing the Narrative: Instead of showing panic and fear, the "news report" cheerfully announces falling prices, describing stocks as "more attractive," "cheaper," and "more affordable."

  • A Long-Term Perspective: The report celebrates the decline, stating that "falling stock prices would be fabulous news for any investor with a very long horizon." This reflects the core value investing principle of buying when prices are low.

  • Contrast with Typical Media: The piece directly contrasts this approach with mainstream financial media, which typically focuses on the short-term panic and losses during a market downturn.

  • Graham's Philosophy: The summary perfectly illustrates Benjamin Graham's philosophy, as detailed in The Intelligent Investor. He famously advocated for being greedy when others are fearful and viewing market pessimism as an opportunity to buy quality assets at a discount.

In essence, the article uses humor to highlight the fundamental investing wisdom of treating a market crash as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell.

What money means to you? Answer 10 simple questions.

What money means to you? Answer 10 simple questions.


In order to really make your money work for you, it is important to try and get
  • to know more about yourself and
  • your relationship with money. 
Some "money psychology" should help you to deal with your financial affairs in a smart way.

To find out more about your investment orientation and your relationship with money, answer the 10 simple questions below as honestly as possible.  This will also help set the necessary guidelines for your investment portfolio.


=====


This is an excellent exercise for self-discovery and building a foundation for a sound financial plan. The questions below are designed to uncover your psychological drivers, risk tolerance, and core beliefs about money to help set guidelines for your investment portfolio.

Please answer these 10 questions as honestly as possible. There are no right or wrong answers.


Your Money Psychology & Investment Orientation Test

1. The Primary Purpose: What is the primary role you want money to play in your life?

  • a) Security and peace of mind (to eliminate financial anxiety).

  • b) Freedom and flexibility (to make my own choices with my time).

  • c) A tool for building wealth and achieving long-term, large-scale goals.

  • d) A means to enjoy life's experiences and luxuries now.

2. The Windfall Reaction: If you received an unexpected $10,000 bonus today, your first instinct would be to:

  • a) Immediately pay down debt or add it to your savings account.

  • b) Spend it on a vacation, a nice gift, or an experience you've been wanting.

  • c) Invest the entire amount in a diversified portfolio for the future.

  • d) A mix: save some, spend some, and maybe invest a little.

3. Market Volatility Response: Imagine you invest $5,000, and over the next 3 months, the market drops 20%. Your portfolio is now worth $4,000. What is your most likely reaction?

  • a) Panic. I would sell my investments to prevent further loss.

  • b) Concern, but I would hold tight and wait for it to recover.

  • c) Opportunity. I would consider investing more to "buy the dip."

  • d) I would feel indifferent; I invest for the long term and expect these fluctuations.

4. The Time Horizon Lens: When you think about investing, what timeframe feels most comfortable to you?

  • a) Short-term (1-3 years): I may need the money soon.

  • b) Medium-term (3-7 years): For a major purchase like a house.

  • c) Long-term (7+ years): This is for my retirement, which is far away.

  • d) I don't have a specific goal; I just want to grow my money.

5. The Emotion of Spending: How do you typically feel after making a significant, unplanned purchase?

  • a) Guilty and anxious, second-guessing my decision.

  • b) Thrilled and satisfied, with no regrets.

  • c) Neutral; I budget for flexibility and this was within my means.

  • d) It depends entirely on what I bought and the value it brings.

6. Financial Role Models: Which statement best describes the financial lessons you learned growing up?

  • a) "Money doesn't grow on trees." / "We have to be careful with our spending." (Scarcity Mindset)

  • b) "It's important to enjoy what you earn." / "You can't take it with you." (Spending Mindset)

  • c) "Save for a rainy day." / "Always have a safety net." (Security Mindset)

  • d) "Make your money work for you." / "Invest in assets." (Wealth-Building Mindset)

7. The Risk Thermometer: On a scale of 1 to 5, how do you feel about potential investment risk?
1 - Loss Averse: The possibility of any loss is unacceptable. I prefer guaranteed, low returns.
2 - Cautious: I'm comfortable with very low risk for stable, modest growth.
3 - Balanced: I can accept moderate risk and occasional downturns for the chance of better returns.
4 - Growth-Oriented: I am willing to accept significant risk for the potential of high growth.
5 - Aggressive: I am comfortable with high risk and volatility for the possibility of maximum returns.

8. The Legacy Question: What best captures your long-term financial aspiration?

  • a) To be completely debt-free, including my mortgage.

  • b) To achieve financial independence, so work is a choice, not a necessity.

  • c) To build substantial wealth that can be passed on to my family or charity.

  • d) To have a comfortable life without financial stress, without necessarily being rich.

9. Information Digestibility: When it comes to managing your investments, you prefer to:

  • a) Set it and forget it. I don't want to check my portfolio frequently.

  • b) Receive regular summaries and only be alerted for major decisions.

  • c) Be actively involved, researching and adjusting my portfolio regularly.

  • d) Delegate the decisions to a trusted financial advisor.

10. The "Enough" Number: Financially, what does "success" look like for you in 10 years?
a) Having no financial worries and a solid emergency fund.
b) Being able to work because I want to, not because I have to.
c) Seeing my investment portfolio consistently growing year after year.
d) Living a life rich in experiences, funded by my investments.


How to Use Your Results:

Once you've answered, review your choices. Look for patterns:

  • Mostly A's: Your primary money motivation is Security. Your investment portfolio should be heavily weighted towards capital preservation (e.g., high-yield savings, bonds, conservative funds).

  • Mostly B's: Your primary money motivation is Lifestyle & Freedom. You need a balanced portfolio that allows for both growth and liquidity for experiences, with an automatic savings plan to keep you on track.

  • Mostly C's: Your primary money motivation is Wealth Building. You likely have a higher risk tolerance and a long-term focus. Your portfolio can lean more towards growth-oriented assets like stocks and equity funds.

  • Mostly D's: You have a Pragmatic or Delegator style. You value simplicity and expert guidance. A diversified portfolio with a mix of assets or using robo-advisors/managed funds would suit you well.

This self-assessment provides a crucial "why" behind your financial decisions, allowing you to build a portfolio strategy that you can stick with emotionally and psychologically, not just mathematically.