Optimism fades on the mainland, but watch for pockets of growth

CRAIG STEPHEN'S THIS WEEK IN CHINA

Chinese caddies join the unemployment line
Commentary: Optimism fades on the mainland, but watch for pockets of growth
By Craig Stephen
Last update: 4:14 p.m. EST Dec. 7, 2008
Comments: 1

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Keeping track of the widening casualties of the global recession in China is becoming increasingly difficult, but it is still worth watching for pockets of opportunity.

Put deflating asset bubbles, steep interest-rate cuts and a 4-trillion-plus yuan stimulus package into the mix, and you can expect a lumpy economy at best.

In recent weeks, China has gone from optimism it could escape the global slowdown to a realization its export sector would take a direct hit -- November exports are expected to have shrunk in value for the first time in seven years -- and finally, to worries the whole economy is on the floor.

J.P. Morgan, in a new strategy note, pinpoints the "collapse of the domestic housing market" for spreading the feel-bad factor around.

Leaving aside the export sector, it seems intuitive that many of the industries that fed off the asset and property bubble on the way up will be spat out on the way down. One surprising new casualty of the economy is the jobless golf caddie.

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